Wow, how does this even happen - Page 2

Germaniac · 10-22-2018, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShaneCarson

This league looks super interesting. Any chance you've documented this or put up a quickstart somewhere?

You can find some of it here - http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=289549

If you need anything PM me, I have everything backed up

Germaniac · 10-22-2018, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

Similar issue in your game, too: 32 runs on 23 hits, a differential of +9.

I think there is a certain pattern when there is such a difference between runs and hits ... it's the walks.

In this game Red Sox pitching issued no less than 17(!) walks.

You're doing a great job with your research, but you completely ignore the walks - in the Göteborg/Den Haag game Den Haag scored 31 runs on 32 hits+walks, in the Red Sox/Yankees game the Yankees scored 32 runs on 40 hits+walks

You need the baserunners and you need to execute - this will not happen often, but it can happen, even in real life.

Germaniac · 10-22-2018, 04:41 PM

Oh, and I should mention - I have four fictional leagues running, these two games happened in a total of about 95,000 games among the four leagues, so it really happens rarely

Le Grande Orange · 10-22-2018, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Germaniac

It may not happen often, but I think this could happen in real life, too

Except, as I previously noted, it hasn't in 1910+ MLB baseball. Largest differential is +8. And only one of those two occurrences involved more than 20 runs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Germaniac

You're doing a great job with your research, but you completely ignore the walks - in the Göteborg/Den Haag game Den Haag scored 31 runs on 32 hits+walks, in the Red Sox/Yankees game the Yankees scored 32 runs on 40 hits+walks

You need the baserunners and you need to execute - this will not happen often, but it can happen, even in real life.

I'm just looking at the final results as demonstrated by the line score. And a differential of runs minus hits of +9 has not happened at all in 163,085 regular length MLB games. (And it should be noted that the large differentials which do exist are not limited to games in which a club scored 20 or more runs.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Germaniac

Oh, and I should mention - I have four fictional leagues running, these two games happened in a total of about 95,000 games among the four leagues, so it really happens rarely

I would still be interested in a large scale study examining the runs minus hits differential in OOTP compared to MLB. A club having more runs than hits is very rare in MLB (just 2.87% of games). Is it similarly rare in OOTP too?

Germaniac · 10-23-2018, 05:07 AM

You have the facts of 163,000 major league games, I only have these two games from roughly 95,000 games among my 4 fictional leagues ... there may not be another of these kind of games over the next 100,000 games, who knows?

But I still don't think games like these are an error by OOTP - I really don't see a reason why an ML-team can't give up 31 runs on 18 hits and 14 walks.

As I said, that game was all about execution as Den Haag left just 4 of 35 baserunners on base.

And so we get to the point that probably is the difference between real life and OOTP: OOTP uses ratings, and an OOTP hitter will have the same approach in an at bat, no matter if it's scoreless in the 2nd inning or his team leads by 25 runs in the 8th ... and I'm pretty sure a human player would lose concentration with his team leading by 20 runs.

I think that also explains, why real-life games don't get completely ugly once position players are sent out to pitch in blowouts.

NoOne · 10-23-2018, 02:05 PM

plus, i doubt we've seen the best/worst luck possible to this point in real life. so, it does not encompass all that is possible. it gives an idea about frequency and what to expect.

something crazy, which in my use will encompass any and all things extremely rare, happening 1/100k or 2/100k isn't so erroneous. even if those events have not happened in real life, yet.

i didn't look at every fact for this particular example above. things like avoiding fielders as releivers... strategical differences ootp/RL big or small or arbitrary in nature. maybe i even used the wrong ratios... close enough for a video game.

from +8, which has hapened twice, to +13 isn't too whacky. 14 walks, some timely XBH and it could happen in real life too. (albeit less likely now than an era with more disciplined battres.. and the status qou is only temporary)

10-22-2018, 04:41 PM	#23
Germaniac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Frankenthal, Germany Posts: 3,092	Oh, and I should mention - I have four fictional leagues running, these two games happened in a total of about 95,000 games among the four leagues, so it really happens rarely __________________ I'm going to have to meet my Maker some day. And if He asks me why I didn't let this boy play, and I say it's because he's black, that might not be a satisfactory answer. Happy Chandler, 1947

10-23-2018, 05:07 AM	#25
Germaniac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Frankenthal, Germany Posts: 3,092	You have the facts of 163,000 major league games, I only have these two games from roughly 95,000 games among my 4 fictional leagues ... there may not be another of these kind of games over the next 100,000 games, who knows? But I still don't think games like these are an error by OOTP - I really don't see a reason why an ML-team can't give up 31 runs on 18 hits and 14 walks. As I said, that game was all about execution as Den Haag left just 4 of 35 baserunners on base. And so we get to the point that probably is the difference between real life and OOTP: OOTP uses ratings, and an OOTP hitter will have the same approach in an at bat, no matter if it's scoreless in the 2nd inning or his team leads by 25 runs in the 8th ... and I'm pretty sure a human player would lose concentration with his team leading by 20 runs. I think that also explains, why real-life games don't get completely ugly once position players are sent out to pitch in blowouts. __________________ I'm going to have to meet my Maker some day. And if He asks me why I didn't let this boy play, and I say it's because he's black, that might not be a satisfactory answer. Happy Chandler, 1947

10-23-2018, 02:05 PM	#26
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	plus, i doubt we've seen the best/worst luck possible to this point in real life. so, it does not encompass all that is possible. it gives an idea about frequency and what to expect. something crazy, which in my use will encompass any and all things extremely rare, happening 1/100k or 2/100k isn't so erroneous. even if those events have not happened in real life, yet. i didn't look at every fact for this particular example above. things like avoiding fielders as releivers... strategical differences ootp/RL big or small or arbitrary in nature. maybe i even used the wrong ratios... close enough for a video game. from +8, which has hapened twice, to +13 isn't too whacky. 14 walks, some timely XBH and it could happen in real life too. (albeit less likely now than an era with more disciplined battres.. and the status qou is only temporary)