I Don't Know How They Be Like They Do, But They Do

polydamas · 09-06-2018, 02:37 PM

So, I noticed my young outfielder has completely pooped his pants to start the season. It's really strange. He had a 0 OPS+ for a lot of the season, but he's dragged it up to 12. The weirdest thing though, is that he is still a great hitter against lefties (which is also strange considering my scout and last season seem to indicated he's *much* better against righties).

This would be really interesting irl. I'd love to know what's going on. Of course, it's probably just an outlier, but in my head someone figured out he can't stop chasing curveballs down and in on righties and now everyone is doing it.

I guess a bonus question would be: how would you handle this guy?

Trade him? Send him to AAA? Start him more?

I'm a dumb bastard, so I'm hedging my bets and offering him a very team friendly 7 year extension.

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battists · 09-06-2018, 05:53 PM

Just curious, what's his BABIP for last year and this? That might be some indicator as to whether he was lucky last year, or unlucky this year, and which is likely to be closer to the truth.

Rosco Peabody · 09-07-2018, 11:05 AM

I would definitely keep playing him, but maybe give him a rest against really tough righties

Drstrangelove · 09-07-2018, 11:56 AM

Comparing a small sample size to a small sample size isn't going to provide consistent results. BABIP could be driving it wacky (good luck one year; bad luck the next), playing with a DTD injury in the second season, or having a poor spring training before the second season could all be expected to drive similar stats. And the fact that his platoon stats are the opposite of what is expected would suggest he's having bad luck.

polydamas · 09-07-2018, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by battists

Just curious, what's his BABIP for last year and this? That might be some indicator as to whether he was lucky last year, or unlucky this year, and which is likely to be closer to the truth.

I remember checking his BABIP early in the season and it was .164

I'll see what it's at now.

It's at .206 and last season it was... .368, which I should have noticed earlier.

I'm still going to massively lowball him.

NoOne · 09-07-2018, 01:55 PM

assumes i have already looked into scouting reports and significant ratings changes are not the cause and not part of the sample size used.

when i try to determine luck with insufficient info, i'm looking for anything that looks odd relative to his ratings... babip is one of those metrics for sure. you can't do anythign of this if you don't have a comprehension of baseline -- relative to league, relative player, or whatever you are looking at.

if i see a "80/100" power guy hit a poor #HR/#AB, i try to add that back in and see what the difference woudl be... is it now an acceptable season realtive to the player's ability?

babip is wildly volatile year-to-year. for batters, you can actually get a decent baseline with a few years, unlike pitching... RP -never because they'll be 32+ by then (eh, you get to know it for a couple years if they hold up), and SP take ~5 years or so for it to level out a bit (may not be completely -- not trying to pick out the 95% confidence level or anything, just enough to ballpark -- likely takes longer for that kind of confidence)

you can predict this stuff with experience in your league and relative to ratings. you cannot see BABIP rating, but you can deduce it because oyu have the other 2 components that add up to "Contact" solve for the unknown...

09-06-2018, 02:37 PM	#1
polydamas All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 604	I Don't Know How They Be Like They Do, But They Do So, I noticed my young outfielder has completely pooped his pants to start the season. It's really strange. He had a 0 OPS+ for a lot of the season, but he's dragged it up to 12. The weirdest thing though, is that he is still a great hitter against lefties (which is also strange considering my scout and last season seem to indicated he's much better against righties). This would be really interesting irl. I'd love to know what's going on. Of course, it's probably just an outlier, but in my head someone figured out he can't stop chasing curveballs down and in on righties and now everyone is doing it. I guess a bonus question would be: how would you handle this guy? Trade him? Send him to AAA? Start him more? I'm a dumb bastard, so I'm hedging my bets and offering him a very team friendly 7 year extension. Last edited by polydamas; 09-06-2018 at 02:40 PM.

09-06-2018, 05:53 PM	#2
battists Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,506	Just curious, what's his BABIP for last year and this? That might be some indicator as to whether he was lucky last year, or unlucky this year, and which is likely to be closer to the truth. __________________ Come check out my dynasty report, Funky Times!

09-07-2018, 11:05 AM	#3
Rosco Peabody All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: South of Boston, Massachusetts Posts: 1,092	I would definitely keep playing him, but maybe give him a rest against really tough righties __________________ . Been playing since OOTP '08 Avatar is a picture of me drawn by one of my students a few years ago (My real name is not Rosco, nor do I live anywhere near Peabody)

09-07-2018, 11:56 AM	#4
Drstrangelove Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 346	Comparing a small sample size to a small sample size isn't going to provide consistent results. BABIP could be driving it wacky (good luck one year; bad luck the next), playing with a DTD injury in the second season, or having a poor spring training before the second season could all be expected to drive similar stats. And the fact that his platoon stats are the opposite of what is expected would suggest he's having bad luck. Last edited by Drstrangelove; 09-07-2018 at 11:59 AM.

09-07-2018, 01:55 PM	#6
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	assumes i have already looked into scouting reports and significant ratings changes are not the cause and not part of the sample size used. when i try to determine luck with insufficient info, i'm looking for anything that looks odd relative to his ratings... babip is one of those metrics for sure. you can't do anythign of this if you don't have a comprehension of baseline -- relative to league, relative player, or whatever you are looking at. if i see a "80/100" power guy hit a poor #HR/#AB, i try to add that back in and see what the difference woudl be... is it now an acceptable season realtive to the player's ability? babip is wildly volatile year-to-year. for batters, you can actually get a decent baseline with a few years, unlike pitching... RP -never because they'll be 32+ by then (eh, you get to know it for a couple years if they hold up), and SP take ~5 years or so for it to level out a bit (may not be completely -- not trying to pick out the 95% confidence level or anything, just enough to ballpark -- likely takes longer for that kind of confidence) you can predict this stuff with experience in your league and relative to ratings. you cannot see BABIP rating, but you can deduce it because oyu have the other 2 components that add up to "Contact" solve for the unknown...