Formula for setting up your lineup? - Page 2

dbqs · 08-21-2018, 02:25 PM

Go from most facial hair to least.

Dyzalot · 08-21-2018, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NCBeachBum

Just a note, the reason for the lack of power in the 3-hole and best hitter in the 2-hole, which flies in the face of most RL lineups, is because the only spot that comes up with the bases empty more than the #3 spot in the leadoff spot. Those guys bat without men on a lot, so power can be somewhat wasted there. Also why avoiding HR power there is more important than avoiding gap power.

Not surprising that the 3-hole comes up more than any other position with no one on other than the leadoff guy considering the fact that the 3-hole comes to the plate more often than anyone but the leadoff or 2-hole guy. It is entirely possible for your #3 hitter to both hit more often than your #5 guy with the bases empty, and with runners on. The two best hitters on my team always hit 2nd and 3rd unless one of them happens to be a high OBP, high speed guy who will then lead off.

NCBeachBum · 08-21-2018, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

Not surprising that the 3-hole comes up more than any other position with no one on other than the leadoff guy considering the fact that the 3-hole comes to the plate more often than anyone but the leadoff or 2-hole guy. It is entirely possible for your #3 hitter to both hit more often than your #5 guy with the bases empty, and with runners on. The two best hitters on my team always hit 2nd and 3rd unless one of them happens to be a high OBP, high speed guy who will then lead off.

I didn't make myself clear: most often AS A PERCENTAGE OF PAs. Rate stat, not counting stat.

Dyzalot · 08-21-2018, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NCBeachBum

I didn't make myself clear: most often AS A PERCENTAGE OF PAs. Rate stat, not counting stat.

I would actually be interested in the number of times the 3-hole hits with runners on base as a percentage of the number of times the entire team hits with runners on base. I wonder where the #3 spot would rank in that calculation.

NoOne · 08-22-2018, 02:24 PM

Edit: from the bottom: And, all of that above is only 1/2 the equation. run scoring ability * raking ability sums it up completely. unfortunately, each is multi-faceted with many moving parts.

lol, that sums it up better than the rest.

-----------------------

dyzalot, if i recall it's similar to #5? if one is higher than the other, it's a small gap. since 3 likely scores more runs the biggest advantage may be run scoring ability as a decision-maker between 2 similar sluggers.

in descending order - 4, 3or5, 2or6, then 7,8,9,1 ( 3-5-2-6 could be shifted, i don't recall 100% from memory, but it's small differences for most part, if i recall? -- i.e. other factors likely will break any 'tie', like guys are more likely to score runs etc)

i can't find the website anymore, but it analyzed rbi-oportunities per slot in lineup. pretty sure #4 still gets the most, even though #3 has more plate appearances. the snippet above for first inning roughly shows someting similar in logic - if not exactly supporting what i just said from memory. after the 1st inning and first ~4 batters, it's fairly unpredictible the further you go into the game - ie ~random results that will be fairly equally spread about.

BO Other-innings 1st-inning-runners
1 0.624 0.000
2 0.745 0.401
3 0.822 0.756
4 0.816 1.035
5 0.717 0.790
6 0.673 0.673
7 0.712 0.712
8 0.731 0.731
9 0.634 0.634

based on 1st inning, isn't factoring quantity... e..g 9th has a .634 chance of runners on but obviously doesn't get that far that otften in 1st inning. so, we can't jsut apply a 3x:1x weight. if it's factored for PA, we could do that for a rough estimate on total rbi-chances per lineup slot (where were tehy on base factored by % scoring chance etc etc... it can be done easily with a good data source)

while still different, it's significantly more evened out in the 'other' column. i'd also wager the people on base for 3-6ish are more likely 'better players than the guys on base for leadoff or 8/9. more xbh for sure from the better players in the top half, which means better % scoring chance on any babip. possibly more athletic? but i think that's random as to whom is faster and has good hitting talent -- mutually exclusive causality for the most part.

And, all of that above is only 1/2 the equation. run scoring ability * raking ability sums it up completely. unfortunately, each is multi-faceted with many moving parts.

SR000 · 09-03-2018, 02:40 PM

I know the discussion is runners in scoring position but one thing to consider is that the 3rd hitter is least likely to lead off an inning whereas the 4th or 5th hitter is most likely to lead off the second inning.

Situational_Lefty · 09-03-2018, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dbqs

Go from most facial hair to least.

Sabermetrics be damned! It's all about the beard.

Juggernt · 09-04-2018, 12:08 PM

I'm pretty conventional,but one thing I insist on in DH league is that the #9 hitter NOT be slow. Depending on the lineup, in what order the 8-9 hitters (and sometimes the 7 hole) go are entirely dependent on speed. I don't want a player who can't run clogging up the top of the order.

08-21-2018, 02:25 PM	#21
dbqs Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2017 Location: Comiskey Posts: 316	Go from most facial hair to least. __________________

08-22-2018, 02:24 PM	#25
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	Edit: from the bottom: And, all of that above is only 1/2 the equation. run scoring ability * raking ability sums it up completely. unfortunately, each is multi-faceted with many moving parts. lol, that sums it up better than the rest. ----------------------- dyzalot, if i recall it's similar to #5? if one is higher than the other, it's a small gap. since 3 likely scores more runs the biggest advantage may be run scoring ability as a decision-maker between 2 similar sluggers. in descending order - 4, 3or5, 2or6, then 7,8,9,1 ( 3-5-2-6 could be shifted, i don't recall 100% from memory, but it's small differences for most part, if i recall? -- i.e. other factors likely will break any 'tie', like guys are more likely to score runs etc) i can't find the website anymore, but it analyzed rbi-oportunities per slot in lineup. pretty sure #4 still gets the most, even though #3 has more plate appearances. the snippet above for first inning roughly shows someting similar in logic - if not exactly supporting what i just said from memory. after the 1st inning and first ~4 batters, it's fairly unpredictible the further you go into the game - ie ~random results that will be fairly equally spread about. BO Other-innings 1st-inning-runners 1 0.624 0.000 2 0.745 0.401 3 0.822 0.756 4 0.816 1.035 5 0.717 0.790 6 0.673 0.673 7 0.712 0.712 8 0.731 0.731 9 0.634 0.634 based on 1st inning, isn't factoring quantity... e..g 9th has a .634 chance of runners on but obviously doesn't get that far that otften in 1st inning. so, we can't jsut apply a 3x:1x weight. if it's factored for PA, we could do that for a rough estimate on total rbi-chances per lineup slot (where were tehy on base factored by % scoring chance etc etc... it can be done easily with a good data source) while still different, it's significantly more evened out in the 'other' column. i'd also wager the people on base for 3-6ish are more likely 'better players than the guys on base for leadoff or 8/9. more xbh for sure from the better players in the top half, which means better % scoring chance on any babip. possibly more athletic? but i think that's random as to whom is faster and has good hitting talent -- mutually exclusive causality for the most part. And, all of that above is only 1/2 the equation. run scoring ability * raking ability sums it up completely. unfortunately, each is multi-faceted with many moving parts. Last edited by NoOne; 08-22-2018 at 02:28 PM.

09-03-2018, 02:40 PM	#26
SR000 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 63	3rd hitter I know the discussion is runners in scoring position but one thing to consider is that the 3rd hitter is least likely to lead off an inning whereas the 4th or 5th hitter is most likely to lead off the second inning. Last edited by SR000; 09-03-2018 at 02:43 PM.

09-04-2018, 12:08 PM	#28
Juggernt Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 357	I'm pretty conventional,but one thing I insist on in DH league is that the #9 hitter NOT be slow. Depending on the lineup, in what order the 8-9 hitters (and sometimes the 7 hole) go are entirely dependent on speed. I don't want a player who can't run clogging up the top of the order.