Formula for setting up your lineup?

[joejccva71]

Hi guys- Is there a formula or method of some kind that gives suggestions or analytics on your batting lineup?

[Orcin]

Google “lineup optimization” and you will get some good articles on the subject.

[NoOne]

you got RBI and you got R -- everything else adds up to those end results. (rbi-opportunities is the better way to look at it... e.g. simply being in a different slot in lineup will have a drastic effect on rbi-output.)

so, obviously power is better in spots that are more responsible for rbi than scoring runs... basically any spot outside of leadoff favors driving in runs over scoring them.

in general, i'll put higher obp guys infront of lower obp guys, but if they are significantly better sluggers, maybe not.

same with speed... prefer it in front of sluggers, but if that person too is a 'better' slugger, i will make an exception.

you'll find speed really isn't the most important factor to scoring runs. who's batting behind you is far more important. getting xbh is important.. a singles machine scores far fewer runs than a guy with a similar avg and high xbh, obviously.

with a large budget, you want a speedy / obp guy with good xbh #'s and then as many big boppers as you can afford that can consistently hit for a decent average -- some good at taking a walk would be good too.

smaller budget, you take what you can get. sometimes a high average / teens homerun guy may very well be your best cleanup hitter... in these tougher situation i use my experience to guesstimate what i'd expect in R+RBI at various spots in lineup -- the combination that returns the largest # is best when you sum all players expectations.

obviously, that takes some experience, and accurate perceptions about your players on your team. how deep your offense is will be a major factor on speculating too. if you know you are weaker than normal, expect lower #s accross board.

[Timofmars]

I use a spreadsheet I made. It illustrates some of the concepts of why sabermetrics puts better batters at 4th and 5th instead of 3rd, and have a good OBP guy batting 9th and things like that.

Based on player ratings, I try to calculate player's OBP, their ability to hit other runners in compared to the value of their hitting for their personal advancement along the bases, etc. The only thing I don't factor in on the spreadsheet is speed and stealing ability, which I factor in myself. Stealing can sort of make their singles turn into doubles, while speed adds more value to the hits of the batters that follow them, since they are more likely to take extra bases on any hit, plus avoid more double plays or fielders choices. I also calculate a batter's overall hitting value, which tells me how much I should try to get the batter higher up in the lineup to more chance at getting an extra AB in a game.

So when I order my players, I'm trying to put the best overall players higher up so they'll get more ABs in a game before it ends. But I also want my better OBP guys batting just before my best sluggers. So it's a compromise.

Also, there's a big bonus to the value of good hitters in the 4th batting slot in the 1st inning, and to a lesser extent, the 5th batter. Also in the 1st inning, there's a kind of penalty to the value of slugging of the 1st batter (since he's guaranteed to have nobody on base in front of him at that time), and then to a lesser extent the 2nd batter.

For example, in my current lineup, my spreadsheet calculates the number of "expected runners on base" when each batter comes up in the lineup, as follows:

BO		Other-innings			1st-inning-runners
1		0.624					0.000
2		0.745					0.401
3		0.822					0.756
4		0.816					1.035
5		0.717					0.790
6		0.673					0.673
7		0.712					0.712
8		0.731					0.731
9		0.634					0.634

Gotta run now, so you can figure it out or try it.

[Yarideki]

Originally Posted by Timofmars

I use a spreadsheet I made. It illustrates some of the concepts of why sabermetrics puts better batters at 4th and 5th instead of 3rd, and have a good OBP guy batting 9th and things like that.

Pardon me but wouldn't you want your best players hitting second or third by the numbers given in your post's left-hand column considering that those spots have more opportunities in innnings that aren't the first inning? Especially since the second and third spots in the batting order are more likely to appear in games than the fourth slot, IIRC, which should mean minimal rbi loss for more plate appearances. Granted, it may be for marginal gain so I suppose whatever makes the most sense for the team (or to make the player happy, if you play with morale on like I do) will work. In the end, make mistakes, get messy, but always have fun!

[ThePretender]

same with speed... prefer it in front of sluggers, but if that person too is a 'better' slugger, i will make an exception.

Strongly disagree with this advice. A SB is far more valuable in front of low slugging players. The risk of a CS isn't worth it when you've got guys who hit doubles and HR behind you - a fast runner will score from first in these situations. But if you put a speedy guy in front of a singles hitter, then instead of a single pushing you from first to second or first to third, it's SB to second, and then a single pushes you to third or more likely you score off a single. Speed is wasted in front of sluggers, and far more valuable with lower slugging players. SB threats in front of singles hitters maximizes the value of speed because you are more likely to score a run off a single if the runner is starting from 2B thanks to the stolen base.

I don't find speed important in OOTP, but if I do have a speedy runner, and he's not one of my best 3 bats, then he's going in front of the low slugging guys at the bottom half of
my lineup.

[joejccva71]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

I don't find speed important in OOTP, but if I do have a speedy runner, and he's not one of my best 3 bats, then he's going in front of the low slugging guys at the bottom half of
my lineup.

Yea I've seen guys with 45 speed and 45 baserunning absolutely FLY around the bases and get triples when they shouldn't have. I don't really rely on speed much in OOTP.

[NoOne]

i don't disagree with the logic that a sb, on it's own and ignoring all other factors, is better in front of a more likely slugger-role slot in lineup. in no way did i contradict that common sense logic.

however, it's all a balance and never a rigid rule (a fact, even if we don't agree on eye-balling a particular break-even analysis). a simple break-even analysis with understanding of how important each element is to the whole. a better slugger can easily be more important batting 3-4-5 than 1-2 even though he can steal bases at a high rate. without all the neccessary data, you and i may believe the gap needs to be larger or smaller, but the fundamental logic at play is not up for debate.

i think the perception of how important a sb is being overweighed:

a sb basically turns a single or BB into a 'lesser' double (or a double into a lesser triple etc). the main differences being it's not an "0-0" count by the time they get to 2nd, % failure of stealing, it's not a 'double' as far as rbi production is concerned, and the fact that the SB may not have even been relevant if say a HR was hit or even some doubles in some contexts etc etc. All of these things reduce the return from a SB. maybe "50sb" adds ~10runs on average for a good offense? (i bet that's generous based on results in my non-average offenses) whatever it is, it's a value that can be overcome by other more important factors with a just a modest increase.

based on my typical offenses, i know who can score 130, 140, or even 160 runs in a year on average from the leadoff spot. in my league, ~160average is about as high as it can get with all the attributes you want + a 1000+run offense (can he peak higher or score fewer, sure, but ~average 160 is peak performance possible from fictionally produced players in my league). when they lack stealing ability it only drops by ~10rs or so. easily overcome by just a minor increase in slugging. i've had numerous leadoff guys average ~150's RS without any stealing ability, whatsoever. if they can't maintain ~75% or higher i zero out their stealing strategy as a rule -- no exceptions on my teams except for developement.

an offense that scores fewer runs would only make the break-even gap smaller, i'd guess.

Anecdotal: i just recently made a mistake of going with a ~100sb guy over a different leadoff-player of similar qualities... he's scoring fewer runs and fewer rbi with a similar OBP and higher stealing rate + %success. i made a mistake... he has more sb and isn't 'better' at leadoff

the lesson i learned is that the guy who hits 15-20hr with no sb is far better than the guy who steals 100sb (104 and 24cs, i think? high %, nonetheless) and 5-10hr -- all other other factors similar enough. i.e. slugging easily overcomes a large gap of SB. this mistake i made is costing me more than just the 10rs lost at leadoff, but also 10-15rbi / year. oops.

i like guys that can steal and i do go after them -- all other factors relatively equal --, but it's just an e-peen according to results in my league's statistical environment -- near default, but fewer HR is major difference (5k, not 6k). increasing HR should further exagerrate this, i'd guess. minimizes sb relative to whole picture even more due to increased frequency of HR.

[joejccva71]

I was kinda hoping for either an app or a spreadsheet where I could input all my batters, their age, ratings, and current stats like OBP, SLG, and wOBA , etc and they would determine what my lineup SHOULD be. lol

[DocHalladay]

Originally Posted by joejccva71

I was kinda hoping for either an app or a spreadsheet where I could input all my batters, their age, ratings, and current stats like OBP, SLG, and wOBA , etc and they would determine what my lineup SHOULD be. lol

Try this out. It is rather rudimentary, only asking for on-base and slugging %, but it does calculate runs/game with the most optimized lineup. Hope this helps.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-b...eupAnalysis.py

[Timofmars]

Originally Posted by Yarideki

Pardon me but wouldn't you want your best players hitting second or third by the numbers given in your post's left-hand column considering that those spots have more opportunities in innnings that aren't the first inning? Especially since the second and third spots in the batting order are more likely to appear in games than the fourth slot, IIRC, which should mean minimal rbi loss for more plate appearances.

If I moved my 4th and 5th guys higher up to slots 2 and 3 in the lineup, then their lower OBP would result in a significantly lower expected-runners-value for batters 3 and 4. And then wherever I put the former 2 and 3 hitters who have good OBP, they'll raise the expected-runners-value for whoever follows them in the lineup, so if they are batting 4th and 5th, the "best" place for my sluggers will look to be the 6th and 7th positions.

I do have a bit of an overpowered lineup though, with all those top 5 players being superstars with high slugging, but mainly different levels of OBP. That's Mike Trout in the #2 position, and Manny Machado at #3. My best slugger, Bryce Harper, is actually batting #1 because of his super OBP, but I usually have Joey Votto batting 1st but he is injured.

With a more normal team where the players have weaknesses and are only good at one thing (slugging or OBP), the ideal lineup would look more traditional.

[Timofmars]

Originally Posted by joejccva71

I was kinda hoping for either an app or a spreadsheet where I could input all my batters, their age, ratings, and current stats like OBP, SLG, and wOBA , etc and they would determine what my lineup SHOULD be. lol

If you use my spreadsheet, you can go to the "raw player data" sheet and create a "view" in OOTP that matches the columns I have on that sheet, and then paste that data from OOTP into the spreadsheet.

Then on the RHP (vs Right-hand-pitcher) or LHP sheets, you can edit the batting order numbers at the top left (Cells A1 and down) to choose the batting order of those players.

A bit lower on the sheet (B67 on the RHP sheet) there's an "expected runs" number generated. This is my prediction on how many runs your team should score on average in a game. Edit the batting order until this number is the highest you can get. But remember that the sheet doesn't consider stealing or speed of players, so you have to consider those factors yourself.

[NCBeachBum]

First I take the 5 best hitters, and put the two with the least power batting first and third. Then of the other 3, best overall hitter 2nd, most power 4th, final guy 5th. 6th best hitter 6th, 7th best hitter 7th, pitcher 8th, 8th best hitter 9th. Or if you have a DH, 8th best hitter 8th and worst hitter 9th.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by NCBeachBum

First I take the 5 best hitters, and put the two with the least power batting first and third. Then of the other 3, best overall hitter 2nd, most power 4th, final guy 5th. 6th best hitter 6th, 7th best hitter 7th, pitcher 8th, 8th best hitter 9th. Or if you have a DH, 8th best hitter 8th and worst hitter 9th.

I do this exactly, except that I put the 9th best hitter 8th so that the #2 hitter is more likely to have a runner in scoring position. I also try not to have two hitters with poor platoon splits (usually left vs left) batting next to each other.

[NCBeachBum]

Originally Posted by Orcin

I do this exactly, except that I put the 9th best hitter 8th so that the #2 hitter is more likely to have a runner in scoring position. I also try not to have two hitters with poor platoon splits (usually left vs left) batting next to each other.

Statistically, you lose more from the better hitter getting fewer PAs than you gain from the extra baserunner once in a while. The exception being when you have a truly massive difference in hitting ability such as that between a position player and a pitcher.

[Orcin]

But of course, with morale turned on, you have to check where the player WANTS to bat and be sure to make him happy. And you have to bat Matt Carpenter first because he is the MVP there and a dud anywhere else.

[joejccva71]

Originally Posted by NCBeachBum

First I take the 5 best hitters, and put the two with the least power batting first and third. Then of the other 3, best overall hitter 2nd, most power 4th, final guy 5th. 6th best hitter 6th, 7th best hitter 7th, pitcher 8th, 8th best hitter 9th. Or if you have a DH, 8th best hitter 8th and worst hitter 9th.

Nice, a few questions.

1. When you say "5 best hitters", are you categorizing this by their OBP? AVG? wOBA? or just their Contact Rating? How are you determining who your 5 best "hitters" are?

2. Do you make changes to the lineup based on how they're playing during the year? Or do you leave it alone for the entire season?

3. What about your speed and basestealing guys? Where are they put?


Thanks!

[sabrtoothtiger]

Something additional to think about that i've definitely seen an impact with is putting speed in front of guys with heavy pull tendencies. Typically if you can get to second base with left handed pull guys hitting the defense is forced to play more true in their alignment. If they maintain the massive shifts it's an easy play to take third base. Now this isn't always the case but it allows these pull heavy guys to gain a couple extra points in their babip.

[NCBeachBum]

Originally Posted by joejccva71

Nice, a few questions.

1. When you say "5 best hitters", are you categorizing this by their OBP? AVG? wOBA? or just their Contact Rating? How are you determining who your 5 best "hitters" are?

2. Do you make changes to the lineup based on how they're playing during the year? Or do you leave it alone for the entire season?

3. What about your speed and basestealing guys? Where are they put?


Thanks!

1. I'd say that's a bit of a personal choice thing. I personally start with wOBA, then look for anything else that might change the order after that in my mind. Choosing the power-less I tend to start with ISO, then make sure HR/PA isn't vastly skewed for some reason to change my mind after that. But you could made arguments for other methods.

2. Once they get to a certain point (for me personally that's around 150 PAs in the R/L split at hand, though this does lead to lefty lineups staying fairly static most of the season), I start changing based on the season's performance.

3. I ignore it, mostly. Sometimes one of the 1/3 guys will have a lot more speed than the other and I'll make certain to put him leadoff as long as the OBPs are somewhat comparable.

Just a note, the reason for the lack of power in the 3-hole and best hitter in the 2-hole, which flies in the face of most RL lineups, is because the only spot that comes up with the bases empty more than the #3 spot in the leadoff spot. Those guys bat without men on a lot, so power can be somewhat wasted there. Also why avoiding HR power there is more important than avoiding gap power.

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by NCBeachBum

1. I'd say that's a bit of a personal choice thing. I personally start with wOBA, then look for anything else that might change the order after that in my mind. Choosing the power-less I tend to start with ISO, then make sure HR/PA isn't vastly skewed for some reason to change my mind after that. But you could made arguments for other methods.

2. Once they get to a certain point (for me personally that's around 150 PAs in the R/L split at hand, though this does lead to lefty lineups staying fairly static most of the season), I start changing based on the season's performance.

3. I ignore it, mostly. Sometimes one of the 1/3 guys will have a lot more speed than the other and I'll make certain to put him leadoff as long as the OBPs are somewhat comparable.

Just a note, the reason for the lack of power in the 3-hole and best hitter in the 2-hole, which flies in the face of most RL lineups, is because the only spot that comes up with the bases empty more than the #3 spot in the leadoff spot. Those guys bat without men on a lot, so power can be somewhat wasted there. Also why avoiding HR power there is more important than avoiding gap power.

Actually, in a lot of cases, the 3-spot is the best spot for a guy with mostly empty power. Sure, I'd rather hit the HR with someone on base, but if there's 2 out and nobody on, I'm not going to look a gift solo shot in the mouth - better than a guy who hits a double and then gets stranded there.

Personally, I like to take the best OBP and put them at the top, and then how I arrange the rest of the lineup honestly takes so many things into conversation, notably:
-I'd rather put a better avg hitter after a person with speed.
-Try to avoid having too many lefties in a row
-Avoid having a guy who hits into DP higher up in the lineup

So I guess if I had to choose, I would likely end up with:
1: Highest OBP
2: Best hitter with low DP/high OBP
3: High power if possible, else just whoever balances out 2/4
4: Best hitter who's not the 2-hitter
with 5-8/9 then sorted according to the rules above.

But again, this will vary a lot with the team talent. If I have, say, Votto hitting leadoff, then I worry more about DP, since I know he won't steal much. But if I had Betts there, then I would probably rather have a higher average hitter in my 2/3 spots, since there's a higher chance he can swipe a base. Of course that varies too depending on who else is in the lineup - if I only have 1 or 2 "top" hitters, then I don't want them leadoff, I'll more likely use a more "traditional" leadoff hitter. But if I'm building an all-star lineup, then OBP/raw talent rules all.