What Year Would You Lock?

[Juggernt]

You're running a fictional game and want to lock the stats to a year in baseball history. The game won't develop like IRL over the years, but have the same parameters each year. That's not just raw stats, but starting pitcher hook, specialized reliever use, and so forth.

I'd want to do a year in which hyper-specialization hasn't yet taken over, but pitcher torture isn't happening either. I'd also like to see possibilities for some extreme individual performances from the actual stars without Brady Anderson hitting 52 homers and the steroids taking over. There are superstar pitchers AND superstar hitters. Maybe late 80s? 1990?

What year do you lock?

[tklem321]

I like 1980. The '70s and '80s are occasionally referred to as the "balanced" era of baseball and for me that feels right. In my opinion, that era had the best balance between hitting, pitching, base stealing, home runs, and strikeouts.Relief pitchers were commonly used but not anywhere near the degree they are today. Very little defensive shifting. It just seems to me like what baseball should be.

But don't ask me to defend the stadiums built in that era.

[Orioles1966]

I like 1965.

It's the first season I truly followed growing up.

Filled with HoF players and no one team was dominating during that time period.

Plus the all mightly Yankees began their fall.

[NoOne]

i set my stat environment and those options based on results of players seasons and careers. when i set LTM i have long-term sims of data to callibrate them to my Totals. part of that process is looking over the league's single season and career records and making any adjustments based on what i see.

so, i start with an intended slash, # of doubles, hr etc etc, but then if i don't like what i see from records book, i will up it or lower it. i try not to worry about league average anymore... i don't care about it (you may). i care about what the players do and i try to work backward from that. if league-wide doesn't jive, that just shows the problem with talent distribution not matching reality.

also, based on individual years over that time... what's peak hr in a season? what's peak doubles in a season?

simple example:
based on my preferences, i want guys reaching 500/600 home runs, and i want the extremely rare 1 or few to reach 700+. (i also want roughly the same # of "3000" hitters after 100 years - same idea)

i may start with a league total of ~5000hr, but if it doesn't work well for individual results that i want, i will change it via the modifier and do another long-term sim if it's anything major... if it is one little tweak, i know it will work as intended.

at this point, i know the results that come with my League Totals i typically use... they have changed over time too, though.

[Juggernt]

NoOne, could you take us through the steps on how we'd do that? I thought the totals on the Stats/AI page were based on a single year. How do you extrapolate?

[Drstrangelove]

The period of 1961-1980 was probably the most diverse 20 year period in that there were 30 game winners, 300k pitchers, 50+ homer seasons, nearly .400 seasons, 40+ saves and 100 plus SB seasons. The earlier part was dominated more by the 4 man rotation and 250-380 IP starters, and huge power hitting corner infielders and all the outfielders, while the latter was when the transition was more towards the 5 man rotation, more specialized BPs and the advent of the big hitting middle infielders and catchers, and the DH.

1972-1976 was really nifty, but I liked 1962-1966 a lot as well.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by Juggernt

NoOne, could you take us through the steps on how we'd do that? I thought the totals on the Stats/AI page were based on a single year. How do you extrapolate?

*** can't use static LTM with initial league players or based on results from initial league players... also this isn't for historical play, unless fictionalized. must sim out to turnover league -- how long is the longest career? go a year or 2 longer -- pre-date league. also, no matter what it sounds like i am suggesting, always change modifiers, not league totals. only change those at game creation, if you choose to and do it correctly.

well, you can use them with initial seed players, but it will have a different range of results than from players originating from drafts in ensuing years once they fill the league. either ignore them in the leaderboards or accept the differences or adjust ltm during that ime or pre-date league like i suggested and sime ~30 years to get them out.

when you autocalculate, it is for that "1" year, so to speak... as in the talent in that league at that exact moment -- a good start, nonetheless. normal volatility included.

you can simply adjust on the fly from these for fine-tuning and then do a long-term sim to see leaderboard. then, let it run over night, or whatever, and see how far it gets next time you check the pc -- hands-off and bare-bones it to save sim time without affecting statistical results of your league. ie no wpa graphs needed etc.

don't like the results for a particular record(s)? adjust the modifier for this or that and repeat. if you have similar sized leagues and rules it will ~sorta carryover.

i do even a bit more

-- you really don't need to read beyond here, lol....

talent fluctuates. the only way to account for that is with long-term simulations and number crunching. i may start with an autocalc, then make some small adjustments before leaving it alone as it simulates to sleep or work etc.

as i mentioned above, i mostly adjust based on the single season and career leaderboard information. i can't do that until the 'other' LTM are set in stone

other stuff like pb, errors, errors per position, dp's, sf, sh, sb% (not # of sb though) et al., -- the things that i don't care about counting/records, but they are important to set the environment for the records i do care about. those are the stats i still try to lock into a RL-like %-occurence in a very strict way using the "100+" years of data to adjust LTMs. ("100" doesn't necessarily mean exactly 100)

it may take more than 1 long-term sim to hammer out the 'other' stuff. for the most part you should be able to adjust stuff related to individual results and records etc at the same time. just from initial auto-calc, it should only be minor issues with the environment-related setting stuff. (as i chose to do it... or break it down as you see fit, not just one way)

it's difficult to change more than one LTM at a time. most are related. you have to look at it as all part of the same whole, "1". so if you reduce K's, that means those PA have to be 'something' else, likely in proportion to other LTs*LTMs. now, try reducing ks, upping bb and reducing hr, lol.... do all that math in your head based on how they affect other LT/LTM and what you need to adjsut on those to maintain current results. my spreadsheet is not that sophisticated (in forums search ltm spreadsheet )... it can help you with this stuff, but best to change one at a time based on its suggestions, or go through how each modifier you intend to change effects the others and adjust the suggestions further in your head. it does work, if you can keep it straight

if you grab that file, it may need to be modified for your league's structure. it should come ready for a 2 sub-league leauge... there may be a 1-leaugue file out there too. it simply is adding 2 rows together from exported file or not. if you know a bit about spreadsheets, it's easy to adjust it... easy to expand table to any size possible. when set up properly, simply open it, click yes to update links, and it's already crunched the numbers immediately.

[dodger300]

1990