2019 Cardinals

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Other than the weather, which you don't really enjoy while playing OOTP, why San Diego?

P.S. Kershaw did opt out in my league.

They have the worst record since 2018 and have never even sniffed a playoff (I deleted all history when I started).

Miami had been the worst but they are up and coming. I thought about Kansas City but they have the best record in the majors so far this year and look to have a GM that knows how to draft.

I had several teams with job openings last season so I'm still thinking if DeWitt does fire me. I had a ton of money invested in our World Series run in 2022, in which we came up short and lost money last season.

I am in the negative this year and can't sign or trade for anyone that will improve us so I had to dump salary and test our minor league system. (switching to hard trading had also added a difficulty layer)

Just shows how OOTP has grown in a good way with more of a challenge and I'm loving it.

[Orcin]

2019 Cardinals - Roster Transition
Step 1: Sell high on Dexter Fowler

St. Louis gets RF Mookie Betts
Boston gets RF Dexter Fowler (no $ retention) and three tier-2 prospects



Betts and Fowler filled leadoff roles last year and turned in 5 WAR seasons. Both are good right fielders and can play center field in a pinch. Each is due to make $14.5M in 2019, Betts via his second year of arbitration. So Betts has two years of control remaining, with the second undoubtably priced higher than the first, while Fowler is signed for three more years at the same rate. So far, it's a pretty even one-for-one deal and I gave up three prospects. But...

Betts will be 26 years old when the 2019 season begins, while Fowler will have just turned 33. The odds of Betts generating as much WAR over his two years of control as Fowler does in three (for more total dollars) are pretty good. I have the opportunity to sign an extension with Betts to obtain 3-5 more prime years of control or, if I let Betts walk after 2020, I will likely get a compensation draft pick at the end of the deal whereas I would not give Fowler a QO at age 36 out of fear he would accept.

Betts is the leadoff hitter that the franchise wanted when they signed Fowler. He has a high leader score that will offset the loss of Fowler's leadership. He is extremely popular and has a "fan fav" personality so the fan base will only be momentarily upset by the loss of Fowler. Betts only made one error in 148 games last year with a +6 zone rating and might win a third straight Gold Glove in right field. Fowler's defense was a plus last year but is likely to decline given his age.

The real kicker is that the three minor league prospects have low value for me because they are all Rule 5 eligible and I had no intention of protecting them. The odds that San Diego would take all three are slim, but the pitcher (Pearce, 7-4, 4.61 ERA at AAA) would likely have been grabbed by someone.

I am sure the real Cardinals would be overjoyed to get out of Fowler's remaining contract and get Mookie Betts in return. But Fowler didn't generate a 5 WAR season in real life. I got lucky and took advantage of it. Plus, I achieved my new owner goal to acquire an All-Star on the first day!

[Orcin]

2019 Cardinals - Roster Transition
Step 2: Sell high on Kolten Wong

St. Louis gets 2B/UT Jurickson Profar
Texas gets C Jorge Alfaro

Wong started hot but didn't produce at all during the summer (OPS by month: Apr .995, May .831, Jun .665, Jul .622, Aug .543, Sep .778). However, his ratings and years of control make him a desirable commodity for the AI and I want to be in a position to capitalize on that value. Wong is still injured and cannot be traded yet, but this deal ensures that I have a replacement if and when the time comes (probably during the Winter Meetings).

If I don't trade Wong, Profar still has a lot of value as a bench player because he is a switch-hitter and plays several positions. He is a good defensive shortstop and that backup spot was a severe weakness on this roster. My only concern is that Profar expects to be in the starting lineup. I am hopeful that great team chemistry and his desire to be with a winner will prevent that from becoming an issue if he stays on the bench all season.

Schrock still figures in the mix at second base but he has options remaining and is a poor bench player because he really only plays one position. Munoz also has an option remaining so both of these players can stay at Memphis next year unless needed as injury replacements. Schrock and Munoz together are infinitely more valuable than Piscotty would have been by now, so that was a great trade by my predecessor.

Alfaro was claimed off waivers last season when Molina was on the D/L and I managed to keep him despite his lack of options by leaving Kelly at AAA. I won't do that in 2019 because Kelly has nothing left to prove at AAA and may well become the starter over Molina at some point during the year. Alfaro has value and was sure to be claimed off waivers in early April, so I might as well get something for him now.

If Wong is not traded, Profar replaces Munoz on the bench and there will be a battle for the final bench spot between Jedd Gyorko and Jose Martinez (with the other spots belonging to Bader and Kelly). Martinez has two options left and cannot refuse the demotion so he is almost certain to start the year in AAA barring a trade or injury. I prefer to keep Martinez on the roster for a couple of years rather than trade him because of his cost, decent bat, and defensive skills/versatility (way overrated in the game compared to real life but so be it).

[pgjocki]

Reading this only makes me miss your dynasty records even more...

Originally Posted by Orcin

2019 Cardinals - Roster Transition
Step 2: Sell high on Kolten Wong

St. Louis gets 2B/UT Jurickson Profar
Texas gets C Jorge Alfaro

Wong started hot but didn't produce at all during the summer (OPS by month: Apr .995, May .831, Jun .665, Jul .622, Aug .543, Sep .778). However, his ratings and years of control make him a desirable commodity for the AI and I want to be in a position to capitalize on that value. Wong is still injured and cannot be traded yet, but this deal ensures that I have a replacement if and when the time comes (probably during the Winter Meetings).

If I don't trade Wong, Profar still has a lot of value as a bench player because he is a switch-hitter and plays several positions. He is a good defensive shortstop and that backup spot was a severe weakness on this roster. My only concern is that Profar expects to be in the starting lineup. I am hopeful that great team chemistry and his desire to be with a winner will prevent that from becoming an issue if he stays on the bench all season.

Schrock still figures in the mix at second base but he has options remaining and is a poor bench player because he really only plays one position. Munoz also has an option remaining so both of these players can stay at Memphis next year unless needed as injury replacements. Schrock and Munoz together are infinitely more valuable than Piscotty would have been by now, so that was a great trade by my predecessor.

Alfaro was claimed off waivers last season when Molina was on the D/L and I managed to keep him despite his lack of options by leaving Kelly at AAA. I won't do that in 2019 because Kelly has nothing left to prove at AAA and may well become the starter over Molina at some point during the year. Alfaro has value and was sure to be claimed off waivers in early April, so I might as well get something for him now.

If Wong is not traded, Profar replaces Munoz on the bench and there will be a battle for the final bench spot between Jedd Gyorko and Jose Martinez (with the other spots belonging to Bader and Kelly). Martinez has two options left and cannot refuse the demotion so he is almost certain to start the year in AAA barring a trade or injury. I prefer to keep Martinez on the roster for a couple of years rather than trade him because of his cost, decent bat, and defensive skills/versatility (way overrated in the game compared to real life but so be it).

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by pgjocki

Reading this only makes me miss your dynasty records even more...

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

This IS my dynasty report.

[Orcin]

Sometimes, you just stumble onto an offer that you can't refuse...

[Orcin]

2019 Cardinals - Roster Transition
Step 3: Push all of your chips into the center and go for it

St. Louis gets CF Mike Trout
L.A. Angels get CF Tommy Pham

The Angels have no money to spend and have decided to rebuild after last season's 67-95 record. You would think that they could find a better deal for Trout but the glutted free agent market has sucked up all of the available budget of the contenders and spenders. In addition to the high-profile players that you know about, several very attractive international free agents showed up. Every team is bid to the limit and the Angels have only one viable option to free up budget.

Trout fits my plan perfectly because his contract expires in 2020 (same as Molina). I can free up a little budget to chase some of the free agents that are stil hanging around in January by trading Wong, but now I might be inclined to just run with this group and see if I can win it all this year. I also wouldn't be surprised to see my owner take a look at season ticket sales and raise my budget in February. Naturally, I raised the ticket price a few percent after acquiring Trout. My fan interest is pegged at 100 but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number isn't well over 100.

The resulting lineup might be enough to win it all if the pitching comes through:

RF Betts
1B Hosmer
CF Trout
DH Calhoun (won N.L. ROY award)
LF Ozuna
3B Carpenter
SS DeJong
C Molina/Kelly
2B Wong/Profar

A few days after the trade, the Angels signed A.J. Pollock at $15M per year for five years to replace Trout and shifted Pham to left field. It's a good move and they used their new budget surplus well. However, I still prefer to have the better and younger player for twice the money on a much shorter deal. My window is now.

The Cubs were shocked by my move to acquire Trout, and immediately retaliated by signing Josh Donaldon to be their DH and cleanup hitter. Looks like it's on in the N.L. Central. The Dodgers were able to re-sign Kershaw at $23.4M per year for seven years, due primarily to the lack of competitors. Manny Machado took $87M over four years (opt-out after two) to sign with the RAYS(!!!), again primarily due to the lack of viable alternatives. Everyone lacks the budget room to pay $30M+ salaries.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Sometimes, you just stumble onto an offer that you can't refuse...

Attachment 569121

While this would be AMAZING to us Cardinals fans, what it tells me is the trade AI code needs looked at.


I could see them wanting Pham and about 3-4 of your top prospects, especially in the SP category.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

While this would be AMAZING to us Cardinals fans, what it tells me is the trade AI code needs looked at.


I could see them wanting Pham and about 3-4 of your top prospects, especially in the SP category.

I don't know how many times we have to tell them. We keep being told that it is working as intended and the AI doesn't know names etc.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Orcin

I don't know how many times we have to tell them. We keep being told that it is working as intended and the AI doesn't know names etc.

It seemed to be great at release, something has changed, especially with the players on the trade block. Teams are willing to give up 4-5 star players even though they are in the hunt.


Shoot, the fan interest drop alone would kill the Angels if they made that trade.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Shoot, the fan interest drop alone would kill the Angels if they made that trade.

Ok, I have been thinking about this. Let's look at it from the Angels' point of view.

They just finished 67-95 WITH Trout. We don't know what the owner goals are, but we can assume that "get better" would be one of them. It is also quite likely that cut spending was another.

Trout was +4 WAR over Pham last year. Both players are controlled for two years, so that is -8 WAR for the Angels. But they gained $30M of budget room.

They used half of that to lock up Pollock for 5 years. Pollock was worth 4 WAR last year, so they made up the loss of the trade and they still have $15M to spend. They get three more years of control too. That's +12 in WAR now. (EDIT: Later in the offseason, the Angels picked up another 4 WAR player by signing 2B Brian Dozier to a 6-year deal at $10M per year, bringing the total gained in the trade to 36 WAR.)

Keep in mind the Angels need multiple good players to recover from a 67-95 disaster. It is pretty easy to see how the AI, which only sees numbers, could consider this trade a win. It is not just looking at one trade - it is looking at the big picture which includes what it can do with the $30M of salary gain in a year with a HUGE high-quality free agent class.

It is different for me, because I don't need multiple players. I won 99 games last year. I need that guy that can put me over the top, i.e. Trout replacing Pham. That 4 WAR might be enough to beat Washington in the playoffs, and then I could win it all just like they did.

So, could they have held out for prospects? Yeah, maybe. I wasn't offering any, but I probably would have offered something. I wouldn't have given up a top prospect though, because I was giving up something else that was very valuable - $30M of budget room. I could have signed Machado or Kershaw, kept Pham, and STILL have $7M left.

Heck, now that I look at it, I think the Angels won this trade!

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

It seemed to be great at release, something has changed, especially with the players on the trade block. Teams are willing to give up 4-5 star players even though they are in the hunt.

I can't argue with this part. The fix to the trade block has swung the pendulum too far the other way. We were better off when the AI never used the trade block.

By the way, Trout was not on the trade block.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Ok, I have been thinking about this. Let's look at it from the Angels' point of view.

They just finished 67-95 WITH Trout. We don't know what the owner goals are, but we can assume that "get better" would be one of them. It is also quite likely that cut spending was another.

Trout was +4 WAR over Pham last year. Both players are controlled for two years, so that is -8 WAR for the Angels. But they gained $30M of budget room.

They used half of that to lock up Pollock for 5 years. Pollock was worth 4 WAR last year, so they made up the loss of the trade and they still have $15M to spend. They get three more years of control too. That's +12 in WAR now.

Keep in mind the Angels need multiple good players to recover from a 67-95 disaster. It is pretty easy to see how the AI, which only sees numbers, could consider this trade a win. It is not just looking at one trade - it is looking at the big picture which includes what it can do with the $30M of salary gain in a year with a HUGE high-quality free agent class.

It is different for me, because I don't need multiple players. I won 99 games last year. I need that guy that can put me over the top, i.e. Trout replacing Pham. That 4 WAR might be enough to beat Washington in the playoffs, and then I could win it all just like they did.

So, could they have held out for prospects? Yeah, maybe. I wasn't offering any, but I probably would have offered something. I wouldn't have given up a top prospect though, because I was giving up something else that was very valuable - $30M of budget room. I could have signed Machado or Kershaw, kept Pham, and STILL have $7M left.

Heck, I think the Angels won this trade!

When I look at it from a simulation point of view, I do rationalize it a bit more, so thanks for that insight.

Honestly, I can't really fault the game much, I'm in a horrible spot right now with the Cardinals, putting all my eggs in one season and now I have no money to spend on anyone and my team is in a constant struggle to stay above .500.

Like I've said previously, my owner wants me to win it all this year and I doubt we even get into the playoffs. I've learned quite a bit though, which is great considering I've been playing OOTP since v2.

Simulations don't care about real life consequences, the AI has a plan and tries its best to carry it out.

What does your payroll look like now?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

What does your payroll look like now?

Well, it's right up there with the Nationals ($220M) and Cubs ($201M), and just ahead of the Red Sox ($185M) and Dodgers ($182M). Free agency isn't over yet though. Here's the summary.





I have been VERY careful to limit my big commitments to two years. I can even get quite a bit of relief next year by voiding team options and/or non-tendering arbitration players. Here are the guaranteed contracts.




Hosmer and DeJong are the only contracts that run beyond this chart. Hosmer has 3 more years at $10M if he doesn't opt out. It's $13M for him (San Diego pays 25%) so he probably won't.

If I can win a championship, the investment was worth it because I will get enough budget to keep the younger portion (Trout, Wacha, Ozuna, Betts) of this team together. If I don't win this year, then it might be time to decline all the big contracts, trade Trout and Betts for prospects, and go with kids (code for tank).

[Orcin]

Hey, it's the offseason for me, so I will keep this thread bumped for a day or two longer.


Rule 5 Draft

This event was a big deal for me because the Cardinals have so many tier 2 and tier 3 prospects clogging up the mid-minors. I decided that I couldn't protect them all so I used my 40-man roster spots for players that might see major league action in 2019. This meant protecting players like SS Edmundo Sosa over good pitching prospects like Derian Gonzalez and Ian McKinney, and third CF Ricky Eusebio over CF prospect Oscar Mercado.

I started the day with two open roster spots, created when Bud Norris and Kelvin Herrera became free agents.

The Marlins were leaving Sandy Alcantara unprotected, and I view him as another Jordan Hicks. I hated to see him go in the Ozuna trade. I love to have 97-99 MPH fastballs in the bullpen, and his stamina makes him a borderline starter (like Hicks). I traded a top starter prospect, Junior Fernandez who I was going to leave unprotected, for Alcantara and gave him roster spot #39. He will be a good candidate to open the year in the bullpen but he also has options.

I needed a third catcher badly, having traded Alfaro. I traded C/1B Ryan McCarvel, a decent tier 2 prospect and Rule 5 risk, to San Francisco for Miguel Gomez, a 26-year old major league ready catcher with two options who was blocked by Buster Posey. Gomez is a good defense catcher and a switch-hitter with no platoon issues. McCarvel is a poor defensive catcher and too weak offensively to be a 1B prospect. My other top catching prospect, Andrew Knizner, doesn't need to be protected yet. I didn't want to waste a secondary roster spot on him this year just because I needed someone to backup Kelly when Molina gets hurt (and he will). Gomez gets roster spot #40 and is fair competition for Kelly as the opening day backup to Molina.

The Yankees had a real roster crunch and left several attractive players unprotected, including left-handed SP Justus Sheffield. I tried to trade for him but the Yankees wanted way too much, so I waived John Brebbia to give me a shot at drafting him at #28. Lo and behold, I got Sheffield! He will have to stay in the major league bullpen this year, meaning that Alcantara will likely be at Memphis unless by some miracle I can trade Brett Cecil.

During the draft, I lost SP Artie (not Alex) Reyes to Baltimore. This didn't bother me at all. The real prospects that concerned me (Gonzalez, McKinney and Mercado) survived the draft. Brebbia cleared waivers and was assigned to Memphis.

[Whoofe]

Originally Posted by Orcin

2019 Cardinals - Roster Transition
Step 3: Push all of your chips into the center and go for it

St. Louis gets CF Mike Trout
L.A. Angels get CF Tommy Pham

The Angels have no money to spend and have decided to rebuild after last season's 67-95 record. You would think that they could find a better deal for Trout but the glutted free agent market has sucked up all of the available budget of the contenders and spenders. In addition to the high-profile players that you know about, several very attractive international free agents showed up. Every team is bid to the limit and the Angels have only one viable option to free up budget.

Trout fits my plan perfectly because his contract expires in 2020 (same as Molina). I can free up a little budget to chase some of the free agents that are stil hanging around in January by trading Wong, but now I might be inclined to just run with this group and see if I can win it all this year. I also wouldn't be surprised to see my owner take a look at season ticket sales and raise my budget in February. Naturally, I raised the ticket price a few percent after acquiring Trout. My fan interest is pegged at 100 but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number isn't well over 100.

The resulting lineup might be enough to win it all if the pitching comes through:

RF Betts
1B Hosmer
CF Trout
DH Calhoun (won N.L. ROY award)
LF Ozuna
3B Carpenter
SS DeJong
C Molina/Kelly
2B Wong/Profar

A few days after the trade, the Angels signed A.J. Pollock at $15M per year for five years to replace Trout and shifted Pham to left field. It's a good move and they used their new budget surplus well. However, I still prefer to have the better and younger player for twice the money on a much shorter deal. My window is now.

The Cubs were shocked by my move to acquire Trout, and immediately retaliated by signing Josh Donaldon to be their DH and cleanup hitter. Looks like it's on in the N.L. Central. The Dodgers were able to re-sign Kershaw at $23.4M per year for seven years, due primarily to the lack of competitors. Manny Machado took $87M over four years (opt-out after two) to sign with the RAYS(!!!), again primarily due to the lack of viable alternatives. Everyone lacks the budget room to pay $30M+ salaries.

great lineup, only weaknesses I see is carpenters aging may kick in on you next season, and your middle infield defense is just mediocre

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Whoofe

great lineup, only weaknesses I see is carpenters aging may kick in on you next season, and your middle infield defense is just mediocre

1) Carpenter is certainly an aging risk and likely gone after this season unless he agrees to return at a much lower salary in a bench role (unlikely).

2) You're right about the defense up the middle, particularly at shortstop but also center field where Trout is no wizard. It is probably the biggest weakness on the team along with the lack of a closer (again). Second base and catcher (Molina is declining) are maybe a shade above average but nothing special there either.

[MizzouRah]

Speaking of Carp.. he's 38 now in my game and is having his best season yet for the A's. He also has a ring with Boston.

[Orcin]

He had a pretty good last year in Boston. Still a walk machine and now cheap so he fits perfectly on the A’s.

[MizzouRah]

Had a heck of a day yesterday in Chicago!