Any ideas on fan loyalty and fan interest

[jimmysthebestcop]

Yea I can see it being a big pain. My budget actually went down after winning the WS and having higher attendance by 5 million.

Kind of shocking going from 1st file with Pitt if that happened it probably increase by 10 - 20 million. And Oakland actually has almost 200K more people then Pitt.

I just got my Fan Loyalty up to "Below Average" I think from "Pathetic" unless that has to go higher to make fan interest fluctuate with how good the team is, I'm not sure. Pitt did start with "Above Avg" fan loyalty even though Market Size and Interest were really low.

ipodiipodi what was you fan loyalty up to in your file? If it was good or above average loyalty it would make sense if you were a winning team their be more interest. Or why have a loyal fan base if there is no interest?

[Painmantle]

My experience is, Lower your ticket prices, get the seats filled 1st. Then worry about the other factors.It Magnifies the effects of Popular Players and Winning and slows the affect of losing. It may also have a positive affect on Loyalty. But if no one is coming to your games, none of that matters. If the Prices are low enough, you will have a solid fan base regardless of your success or lack there of. Ticket Price is the single most influential thing you can control imho

Of course Winning solves a lot of problems too LOL

[Drstrangelove]

https://sabr.org/research/what-do-yo...payroll-factor

https://cupola.gettysburg.edu/cgi/vi...ontext=mathfac

Nice studies from Neyer and SABR, both of which have produced a lot of good baseball analysis over the years, imo.

What they found was enlightening. There is --- overall --- a positive correlation between winning and attendance, but... overall means, all the teams, over a large range of years. Once one drills down to individual teams, the picture changes.


1) the correlation declines substantially after one year. The impact of winning one year, doesn't completely carryover to the next year. And for some teams, that carryover effect is quite small.
2) there is a wide disparity between some fan bases and others in reaction to winning. Some fan bases quickly respond to more wins, while other fan bases show little to no effect at all.

The studies do not support the hypothesis that more wins will always or typically lead to higher attendance for each team. It suggests it will in some markets, but not in others. In RL, the idea that increased team wins is strongly predictive of increased attendance depends in part on which teams (fan bases) you're examining. For some, it can be strong while for others it can be weak.

[ipodiipodi]

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

Yea I can see it being a big pain. My budget actually went down after winning the WS and having higher attendance by 5 million.

Kind of shocking going from 1st file with Pitt if that happened it probably increase by 10 - 20 million. And Oakland actually has almost 200K more people then Pitt.

I just got my Fan Loyalty up to "Below Average" I think from "Pathetic" unless that has to go higher to make fan interest fluctuate with how good the team is, I'm not sure. Pitt did start with "Above Avg" fan loyalty even though Market Size and Interest were really low.

ipodiipodi what was you fan loyalty up to in your file? If it was good or above average loyalty it would make sense if you were a winning team their be more interest. Or why have a loyal fan base if there is no interest?

Hey jimmy, thank you for your continued update. I was playing with Detroit, which starts with "above average" in terms of fan loyalty. Unfortunately, as you can see from my frustration, the fan interest barely changed despite winning WS twice in the span of four years.

[ipodiipodi]

Originally Posted by Painmantle

My experience is, Lower your ticket prices, get the seats filled 1st. Then worry about the other factors.It Magnifies the effects of Popular Players and Winning and slows the affect of losing. It may also have a positive affect on Loyalty. But if no one is coming to your games, none of that matters. If the Prices are low enough, you will have a solid fan base regardless of your success or lack there of. Ticket Price is the single most influential thing you can control imho

Of course Winning solves a lot of problems too LOL

Hey Painmantle, what has been your experience in terms of financials when you lowered the ticket price and filled the stadium to the brim? Do you have some results that you could show?

Thanks!

[Painmantle]

Well, My Houston Astros in the AHBL Historical Online league Fan Interest from 80-87. We have an Average Market Size, Poor Fan Loyalty (Loyalty started way down in the red.



Year INT (Att) Wins

1980 57 (2.5) 57
1981 60 (2.7) 91 X
1982 60 (2.8) 80
1983 78 (3.4) 88 X
1984 69 (3.4) 81
1985 86 (3.6) 91 X
1986 70 (3.6) 75
1987 84 (3.5) 87

X = Playoffs

My Ticket Prices were .49 in 80 we raised to .99 in 83 we raised them to 1.49 and 85 we raised them to 1.99

[jimmysthebestcop]

Yeah I'm thinking bug. I only play MLB setup and some cities everything is fine and some aren't.

For example in Oakland winning a WS didn't increase fan interest by 1 point but end of season loyalty jumped up an entire level.

While just making the playoffs in Pitt fan interest jumped like 40 points over the course of a year.

Maybe it has something to do with the MLB start?

[Painmantle]

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

Yeah I'm thinking bug. I only play MLB setup and some cities everything is fine and some aren't.

For example in Oakland winning a WS didn't increase fan interest by 1 point but end of season loyalty jumped up an entire level.

While just making the playoffs in Pitt fan interest jumped like 40 points over the course of a year.

Maybe it has something to do with the MLB start?

From My understanding. Fan Interest is about getting new fans, Loyalty is about keeping the ones you have. To expect every City to react the same to any given situation/result is pretty unrealistic. There are times when you may have already tapped your base. Interest Is all about available possible fans that isn't already going to games, Lets face it, not everyone is a Baseball fan and no amount of winning will make all the people into one . The only way to truly know is to be able to reproduce an identical season multiple times and see if the game produces similar results. There has to be a certain variability factor or the Game becomes way too predictable. In my experience having a Single successful season is no cause for a mad rush of new fans. Having Multiple successful seasons over a course over a few or several years is how you build up a solid core of fans. And they leave a lot faster than they came. As with anything, there are exceptions to every rule. But when you Look at a Team Like Oakland we have to remember they Share a Fan Base with San Francisco where Pittsburgh gets theirs all to themselves.

I'm not saying it isn't a Bug, but I certainly won't believe it to be one unless there are a lot more than a handful of seasons produced as evidence.

[ipodiipodi]

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

Yeah I'm thinking bug. I only play MLB setup and some cities everything is fine and some aren't.

For example in Oakland winning a WS didn't increase fan interest by 1 point but end of season loyalty jumped up an entire level.

While just making the playoffs in Pitt fan interest jumped like 40 points over the course of a year.

Maybe it has something to do with the MLB start?

Hey Jimmy, your reports on the discrepancy between Oakland and Pitt are very helpful, and it helped me to think more about the fan interest.

I think, however, that fan loyalty and fan interest are probably computed differently with different algorithms. Based on your experience with Oakland, your results suggest that markets with poor loyalties would likely to go up a level upon a successful season. On the other hand, it does appear that for some teams, winning does not produce any noticeable effect on fan interest.

Just an aside, I also tried White Sox. My experience is the same in that despite putting together 2 seasons winning 90+ games, all while leaving the ticket price unchanged, the fan interest is still hovering around in the 40s. Sigh...

[MisterTidster]

Sorry it’s not unscientific, but I believe I have a solid hypothesis. To increase fan loyalty, fan interest needs to be capped for several seasons. You can have multiple 100+ win seasons, but if you are losing popular players each year or have ticket prices too high, your fan interest won’t max out. When your fan loyalty is maxed and it gets another trigger to increase, it resets to very good and market size increases. This is how it played out when I was GM of SF and got market size up to astronomical... when I moved to Texas I was more ruthless about ditching players, so even though I was winning, I wasn’t maxing out fan interest and didn’t get loyalty boosts.

[TGH-Adfabre]

Originally Posted by Painmantle

From My understanding. Fan Interest is about getting new fans, Loyalty is about keeping the ones you have. To expect every City to react the same to any given situation/result is pretty unrealistic. There are times when you may have already tapped your base. Interest Is all about available possible fans that isn't already going to games, Lets face it, not everyone is a Baseball fan and no amount of winning will make all the people into one . The only way to truly know is to be able to reproduce an identical season multiple times and see if the game produces similar results. There has to be a certain variability factor or the Game becomes way too predictable. In my experience having a Single successful season is no cause for a mad rush of new fans. Having Multiple successful seasons over a course over a few or several years is how you build up a solid core of fans. And they leave a lot faster than they came. As with anything, there are exceptions to every rule. But when you Look at a Team Like Oakland we have to remember they Share a Fan Base with San Francisco where Pittsburgh gets theirs all to themselves.

I'm not saying it isn't a Bug, but I certainly won't believe it to be one unless there are a lot more than a handful of seasons produced as evidence.

From my understanding Fan Interest is about day to day ticket sales and Fan Loyalty is about season ticket sales. I have always assumed both have an effect on merchandise and the ticket price thresh holds the fans will tolerate.

[TGH-Adfabre]

Originally Posted by ipodiipodi

Hey Jimmy, your reports on the discrepancy between Oakland and Pitt are very helpful, and it helped me to think more about the fan interest.

I think, however, that fan loyalty and fan interest are probably computed differently with different algorithms. Based on your experience with Oakland, your results suggest that markets with poor loyalties would likely to go up a level upon a successful season. On the other hand, it does appear that for some teams, winning does not produce any noticeable effect on fan interest.

Just an aside, I also tried White Sox. My experience is the same in that despite putting together 2 seasons winning 90+ games, all while leaving the ticket price unchanged, the fan interest is still hovering around in the 40s. Sigh...

That seems out of whack.
Did you move a lot of popular players?
How was your attendance?
Did 90 wins get you to the playoffs?
Did you win in the post season?

[Painmantle]

Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre

From my understanding Fan Interest is about day to day ticket sales and Fan Loyalty is about season ticket sales. I have always assumed both have an effect on merchandise and the ticket price thresh holds the fans will tolerate.

I think you just said the same thing I said in a different way

[TGH-Adfabre]

Originally Posted by Painmantle

I think you just said the same thing I said in a different way

Probably, I was pretty exhausted when I wrote it.

[ipodiipodi]

Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre

That seems out of whack.
Did you move a lot of popular players?
How was your attendance?
Did 90 wins get you to the playoffs?
Did you win in the post season?

Hey Adfabre,

Thank you for your interest in this issue! To answer your question: 1. I did lose a few popular players, since I was playing White Sox, we could not afford to keep all popular players; 2. My attendance maxed out during the second half of my first 90+ win season and remains maxed out throughout my second, subsequent, 90+ win season; 3. Yes, we made to the playoffs during those two seasons; and 4. I made it to the WS (but lost) in the first 90+ win season, while was eliminated during the AL Championship Series.

Yes, it does seem completely out of whack, and this would not have happened in OOTP18, where two 90+ win seasons would easily get your fan interest into 100. Yet, in OOTP19, the small market team seems to a difficult time increasing the fan interest, which has been a main point of frustration for me.

[ipodiipodi]

Originally Posted by MisterTidster

Sorry it’s not unscientific, but I believe I have a solid hypothesis. To increase fan loyalty, fan interest needs to be capped for several seasons. You can have multiple 100+ win seasons, but if you are losing popular players each year or have ticket prices too high, your fan interest won’t max out. When your fan loyalty is maxed and it gets another trigger to increase, it resets to very good and market size increases. This is how it played out when I was GM of SF and got market size up to astronomical... when I moved to Texas I was more ruthless about ditching players, so even though I was winning, I wasn’t maxing out fan interest and didn’t get loyalty boosts.

Hi Tidster, thank you for your contribution and input! Your working hypothesis makes a lot of sense and thank you for offering your thoughts on this issue.

By the way, how did your fan interest look? Did it increase very much at all or it seemed to be "stuck" at certain level?

[TGH-Adfabre]

Originally Posted by ipodiipodi

Hey Adfabre,

Thank you for your interest in this issue! To answer your question: 1. I did lose a few popular players, since I was playing White Sox, we could not afford to keep all popular players; 2. My attendance maxed out during the second half of my first 90+ win season and remains maxed out throughout my second, subsequent, 90+ win season; 3. Yes, we made to the playoffs during those two seasons; and 4. I made it to the WS (but lost) in the first 90+ win season, while was eliminated during the AL Championship Series.

Yes, it does seem completely out of whack, and this would not have happened in OOTP18, where two 90+ win seasons would easily get your fan interest into 100. Yet, in OOTP19, the small market team seems to a difficult time increasing the fan interest, which has been a main point of frustration for me.

I agree. I don't get it either. Have you uploaded league files or posted in the Tech Support forums?

[Painmantle]

Originally Posted by ipodiipodi

Hi Tidster, thank you for your contribution and input! Your working hypothesis makes a lot of sense and thank you for offering your thoughts on this issue.

By the way, how did your fan interest look? Did it increase very much at all or it seemed to be "stuck" at certain level?

Small Market teams should have a hard time Maxing out Fan interest, If anything what you describe to me says OOTP18 wasn't handling it correctly , what you describe is not my experience with Fan Interest. My Houston Team listed above, which I have had since they were an expansion team reached it's highest level of Fan Interest (93) in 1976 after a World Series Championship. This was in Versions of OOTP previous to OOTP19.

[Painmantle]

This is our Fan Interest from 1962 -1988

[MisterTidster]

Originally Posted by ipodiipodi

Hi Tidster, thank you for your contribution and input! Your working hypothesis makes a lot of sense and thank you for offering your thoughts on this issue.

By the way, how did your fan interest look? Did it increase very much at all or it seemed to be "stuck" at certain level?

When I was with SF, I would take hits when I lost players, but would bounce back much more quickly. I was doing a lot more longer term contracts, so I wasn’t taking as many hits losing players and being a larger market I could afford to lock up more players for a longer time. Fan interest was generally 95+, and sometimes high enough to lose a key player and still be 99+.

With Texas, I had two absolute stud players locked up on high dollar long term contracts. I was churning through the rest of the roster frequently, so I was taking more fan interest hits each offseason. I was probably too aggressive raising ticket prices. If I had a wire to wire first place team I would be close to selling out, but slumps would kill attendance. Generally, no matter how much I won, fan interest would rise extremely slowly. Usually I’d be stuck between 80-90.

I’m now out from under the big contracts and able to win with lower payroll, so I’ll be able to test to see if it’s a matter of lower ticket prices combined with winning providing greater boosts to interest compared to high prices combined with winning.