When is too early for an extension

[sc_superstar]

Have a beastly player, he has 4.0 years of service time, he has his arbitration at approx. 16m for this season already done and estimated at around 19 for next year, If I bump up his offer into the 30m range he will sign a 7 year deal. He will be 26 at the start of the season
so this contract will bring him until the end of his age 33 season.


He plays 1B so that is a consideration but he has been RoY, 3x GG 4x SS and 1x MVP in 4 seasons. He is by far the best defensive 1B in the league for what that means averaging around 10-12 ZR per season


Batting wise he is averaging .292/.358/.594 50 HR and around 7 War per 162.

Most of the top end players ask for 40-42m or so but by the time they sign they get around 25-30 there are around 25 guys with AAV's over 20 and about 5 or so with AAV's over 30, so he does come in as elite pay wise

The question becomes do I sign him now and overpay by 10m for next season or take the risk since I assume next year he will have a big ask and end up testing FA, that I could end up in a bidding war and have to end up paying him more than 30ish just to try and save some cash next year and try and cheap out on his next contract

[pgjocki]

I'd sign him now and add in a team option after 5 years

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[NoOne]

if it's a true superstar you are odds on better off signing him now than waiting a year or 2. he wins another mvp or just has some good seasons and it goes up to max cost relative to his ratings.

if you think he's gotten lucky and should regress a bit, you wait for that better contract.

based on what you've stated, i'd lean toward signing him now as opposed to later.

heh, i stopped doing my awards asap in offseason due to awards messing up my contract extensions. i kept having an odd player on occasion not signing a previously accepted offer. it was often a younger player taking a deal early in arb years and also winning an MVP or something -- since nothing else seemed to change in the equation over the course of those few days, i am assuming that is the cause. between saying yes and winning that award they had not completed the contract extension. they win the award and think they deserve more.

i make sure arb deals are signed before doing awards, if possible. just one more thing that can escalate salary.

"too early" all depends on context. you neglect to sign them to an extension in year 3 and they aren't receptive in year 4. it's a bit of a risk to try to maximize this stuff. my main concern is their age and how long the term is. trading a guy signed to 33 is easier than a guy signed until 35 and you get a better return. also, i'd rather they not age on my team... again, greater returns. signed to ~33 at latest and not likely to be on my team after ~29-32 anyway. so, for me at least, extending them at or before age ~25-27 is key. what # year they are in of club control is less significant.

heck, if they will be ~30+ after 7 years, i won't even bother extending in many circumstances. they simply won't be around long enough to bother. destined for comp pick or trade for sure... too old to build around with confidence @2nd contract, imo.

edit: i have no idea if something is off above -- something screwed up while editing and i don't feel like proof-reading, lol.... other note i wanted to add:

it mostly evens out whether you extend in year 1-X. you get less of a deal in year 7 since you aren't buying any arb years. the difference between arb values and average salary of extension all jive with each other. yeah it costs a bit more the next year, but you aren't buying out a "cheaper" year... relative to arb costs, you are basically paying the same amount and just redistributing it.

mix a few arb years with FA costs and you get an extension average. you only "lost" if you needed the money spread out. you may have even benefited by paying the lower arb cost and waiting a year as costs drop the following year etc etc....

[Drstrangelove]

Originally Posted by sc_superstar

When is too early for an extension

As to the title of the thread, it's never too early for an extension, if you can get them for the terms you want. That's the key point. E.g., I will readily sign a marginal player who is clearly better than the best existing FA, to 3+ years at $1-2 mill per year, if at least one of those years, he'd otherwise be a FA.

This is typically easier for players not subject to arbitration, but I've signed about 10% of my arbitration players to attractive 6-7 year extensions. Some players won't entertain an extension, some will only if it's the last season, some will with 2-3 years left in FA. And so forth. For me, I've found the player's contract demands tends to be lower early in his career, and higher later in his career, relative to my spending preferences. So, it makes sense to me to sign earlier if I know I have a long term spot for him. Of course, it's riskier to lock-in when a player doesn't have a long career to look at, but if he's good, his price tab will just increasing as one waits.