Starting Pitcher 3rd Pitch

nuwildcat · 06-09-2018, 04:44 PM

What is an acceptable level for a starter's third pitch on the 20-80 scale? I have always thought it should be above average (55 or higher) but I am starting to think that maybe I should widen my net a bit by allowing it to be lower. Anyone have any thoughts?

chriskelly · 06-09-2018, 05:05 PM

I think if he has 3, the 3rd has to be around 50. if he has 4, you can have a few at 45. I think the other variable is how often they throw each pitch. If you really wanted to, you could even mess around with the editor and see what combination of pitch types yield the best stuff, although that might not be an indicator of success

stealofhome · 06-09-2018, 06:09 PM

I think at least 45 for the game to consider as a starter.

MisterTidster · 06-10-2018, 10:56 AM

I’ve gotten away with 30, but it can be unreliable. Production was good, but FIP was marginal. He had good seasons, but was also a ground ball pitcher with a great defense.

RchW · 06-10-2018, 01:01 PM

Also depends on the quality of pitches 1 and 2. Relatively rare but documented cases exist.

Edit

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=248207

NoOne · 06-10-2018, 02:02 PM

be safe keep the third near 1/2 scale (maybe a slightly higher threshold for a lower resolution scale)

let results dictate. if they are too much like a 2-pitch pitcher, they will be extremely erratic as SP year-to-year. unfortunately, all SP are quite erratic. by the time you know for sure it'll waste ~5+ years, lol.

this is an experiment i avoid due to the time involved and uncertainty. if i end up with a guy like this, it's because it proved consistent results elsewhere and isn't too old, yet.

or, maybe as an RP and test the waters as SP in time of need etc. this type of prospect is better to be not counted on / planned around as a cornerstone and if they work out just a bonus or icing on top. definitely don't waste a top 10-15 pick on this type of prospect. maybe even entire first round if 3rd pitch is weaker than 1/2 scale.

some do buck that fast and loose rule, but it's against the odds for sure.

nuwildcat · 06-10-2018, 07:14 PM

Thanks everyone. I appreciate the feedback. As I thought I guess I should lower my filter parameters to allow a third pitch of 50 quality. As always the people on this board are very helpful.

jimmysthebestcop · 06-12-2018, 03:58 AM

I've seen 50 as 3rd pitch on 20-80 do pretty good. As actual and not potential in MLB.

Recent irl draftee Matthew Liberatore in my 1 file current was 40 with like 65 potential thought he was safe as I've seen 40 develop while almost never seen under 40 develop (talking about change up here). Had to call him cause of injuries and did as a fill in I had a 70 pitch count on him. Played about 20 games.

Next year change-up halted and without the low pitch count lost all effectiveness.

If that 3rd pitch is a Change and it has a low current rating in my games I've almost never seen it develop. But IRL it is the hardest for prospects to develop so pretty good mimic. While if 3rd pitch is a slider or curve or something seen them at least get a current rating of 50 way more often even if it never develops to the 75 potential or whatever. They can get by if their other 2 pitches are plus or plus plus as a Starter.

ThePretender · 06-12-2018, 11:44 AM

It depends on the specific pitches, and the quality of each overall pitch. An average sinker with two other 60 pitches may not be good enough. An average fastball with two other 60 pitches will be.

The suggested role usually helps. If it says emerg/bullpen/borderline SP, don't waste your time, he's a RP.

Timofmars · 06-14-2018, 08:26 AM

I think you can just ignore the pitches and just look at stuff rating. Overall rating also is a good indicator for starting pitchers. Those ratings seem to already factor in the pitch variety. Changing a player's role from SP to RP will adjust the stuff rating appropriately as well.

However, for RPs, the overall rating doesn't seem to match up quite as well with how good I find the players to be. I find that the relievers with fewer pitches are underrated. Those pitchers with 2 pitches can get a huge boost to their stuff rating, but the overall rating doesn't seem to reflect that.

MisterTidster · 06-14-2018, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThePretender

The suggested role usually helps. If it says emerg/bullpen/borderline SP, don't waste your time, he's a RP.

I somewhat disagree, but only situationally. I generally build around defense. You can usually plug in a borderline starter (two decent pitches with a weak third) and get serviceable production on the cheap as long as your defense is adequate. I wouldn’t go with a rotation with 5 of them, but one or two can be serviceable 4th and 5th starters if you need to plug in a cheap veteran.

You can get a 2.5 Star borderline starter as a veteran on a minor league with major league option contract to stash in AAA in case your rotation gets the injury bug.

ThePretender · 06-14-2018, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterTidster

I somewhat disagree, but only situationally. I generally build around defense. You can usually plug in a borderline starter (two decent pitches with a weak third) and get serviceable production on the cheap as long as your defense is adequate. I wouldn’t go with a rotation with 5 of them, but one or two can be serviceable 4th and 5th starters if you need to plug in a cheap veteran.

You can get a 2.5 Star borderline starter as a veteran on a minor league with major league option contract to stash in AAA in case your rotation gets the injury bug.

I build around quality defenders and I would never use a 2 pitch starter with a weak third. They might fluke a good performance, but even with elite defense it's not reliable enough to guarantee that kind of performance. And I'd rather turn that 2 pitch guy into an elite RP throwing 100-150 insanely good high leverage innings, so I see that player as a far more valuable RP arm.

I'd rather have a less talented 3 pitch starter over a high stuff/move/control 2 pitch "starter" in my rotation.

MisterTidster · 06-14-2018, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThePretender

I build around quality defenders and I would never use a 2 pitch starter with a weak third. They might fluke a good performance, but even with elite defense it's not reliable enough to guarantee that kind of performance. And I'd rather turn that 2 pitch guy into an elite RP throwing 100-150 insanely good high leverage innings, so I see that player as a far more valuable RP arm.

I'd rather have a less talented 3 pitch starter over a high stuff/move/control 2 pitch "starter" in my rotation.

I totally get what you’re saying. Risk is difficult to deal with, but if you have a good pitching coach, some of that risk can be minimized, especially if the pitcher’s style matches the coach’s style. I’ve been simming with Texas lately and situationally the movement and control ratings seem to matter more than for other parks, just because giving up home runs and extra base runners carry additional risk in a hitter’s Park.

I’m also not advocating using a guy with a weak third as an OK thing to do as a rule. Situationally it’s a risk that can pay off, but you do want to monitor the situation and have a backup plan if it goes south. Since these starters can be had for 1.2 - 3.6 million, the advantage is they’re not a financial risk. I’m talking about picking up a veteran free agent to fill a gap and not drafting a guy with a weak third thinking he’s going to be my starter of the future.

ThePretender · 06-14-2018, 12:35 PM

I don't know what universe you're playing in that they get paid 2-3M. In most leagues they get paid 15-20M because people expect top of the rotation production and the result is usually a 100-105 ERA+ as a best case scenario which is...not good enough for a top 3 spot on a contender.

MisterTidster · 06-14-2018, 12:45 PM

2.5 to 3 star veteran pitchers deeper in the offseason can be had for 1.2 - 3.6. There’s usually 2-4 of them available prior to spring training. I’m also talking about a 4th or 5th guy in the rotation and not a guy in the top three of a rotation.

jimmysthebestcop · 06-14-2018, 08:04 PM

I've had the most success with pitchers

around these lines + or -
stuff -60
mov - 50
control - 60

I look for 3 or 4 plus pitches. or ++, +, 2 average. A lot of AAA and AA guys fall in these parameters. I and often find that the AI handles there MLB promotion awfully.

If they are young enough I'll RP in the majors immediately then the following year make him a SP. I've picked up several pitchers even at A+ that were ready for the bigs.

Maybe they are blocked on higher levels or the majors or maybe their gm favors veterans. No idea. Then its like they start out at 2.5 star potential and 2 years in the majors they blow up to like 4 or 5 stars.

And even in challenge mode the trade isn't bad because the other team doesn't value them. All their SP prospect are the ++ stuff or ++ control and 4 or 5 star potential already. But their biggest problem often is 3rd pitch change up at current 30 with potential 80 and chances of that developing is like getting hit by lighting. Maybe worst.

ThePretender · 06-14-2018, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterTidster

2.5 to 3 star veteran pitchers deeper in the offseason can be had for 1.2 - 3.6. There’s usually 2-4 of them available prior to spring training. I’m also talking about a 4th or 5th guy in the rotation and not a guy in the top three of a rotation.

I typically play against other GMs, not the AI, and guys like that will never last deep into an offseason in any competent league. So that might explain the difference.

But even a back end calibre SP with 2 pitches is way more valuable as a RP. The stuff jumps significantly and they are way more valuable in a relief role, especially as a multi inning reliever.

MisterTidster · 06-16-2018, 12:28 PM

Yeah, that makes a huge difference. Playing against real people forces you to adapt to changes a lot more and “value” changes as others adapt. Playing against the AI is much more consistent and forgiving and seems to break down into gaming the system more.

NoOne · 06-16-2018, 09:47 PM

you can have perennial cy young-type stats if the other 2 pitches are elite (max, max+). they end up with max+ overall stuff too as an SP -- the type i speak of.

i too historicallly liked to use these guys as elite long relief / high lev pitchers, or setup/high leverage for this type of quality. -- assuming >max stuff as a RP role.

anyway, anecdotal: had a guy in my pen for 6-7 years of 2+war relief innings/year - consistently phenomenol years. only had 35-40some stamina or thereabouts, and i wasn't going to pay FA SP money for him that he was going to demand and get. his third pitch was 50-56/100 or so.

he went to another team as a FA and regularly threw 200+ip and cy young quality numbers for the next 5-7 years. i still wouldn't like him on my team for the low innings as an ace, but great per9 rates and such that match the role for sure on any team. relative to his tamina rating, he got alot of bang for his buck. can't believe he consistently topped 200ip.

made me rethink stamina a bit -- let results dictate. it doesn't matter what the rating is, rather how deep are they consistently pitching. what they throw and how good they are is part of that equation too. it's mostly stamina rating, but if i see an elite SP pitching efficiently and deep into games, i take it into consideration too.

i always avoided teh 2 elite pitch / 1 average pitch guys before this. i'm more open to it now. it definitely requires greater ability elsewhere to make up for the lacking in the third pitch -- which isn't thrown that often in many real-life cases of good pitchers.

2-pitch guys or a severely hindered 3rd pitch definitely should not be counted on as a starter.

jimmysthebestcop · 06-17-2018, 01:11 AM

Yeah I often find stamina is not the #1 reason they cant get deep into games. Its the pitch count and get they can through or to the 3rd go of the lineup.

A low starter stamina say 20-80 I go with is 45. And he can pitch 7 innings often 8 per game but he needs to be dealing. Not having 100 pitches in 3/4 innings because he is either giving up hits or struggling to get outs.

Good mechanics and pitch quality/quantity with low stamina should be ok a lot of the times now if they aren't excelling in those areas thats asking for trouble at least for me.

06-10-2018, 01:01 PM	#5
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	Also depends on the quality of pitches 1 and 2. Relatively rare but documented cases exist. Edit http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=248207 __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit Last edited by RchW; 06-10-2018 at 01:21 PM.

06-14-2018, 12:35 PM	#14
ThePretender All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,331	I don't know what universe you're playing in that they get paid 2-3M. In most leagues they get paid 15-20M because people expect top of the rotation production and the result is usually a 100-105 ERA+ as a best case scenario which is...not good enough for a top 3 spot on a contender. Last edited by ThePretender; 06-14-2018 at 12:36 PM.

06-14-2018, 12:45 PM	#15
MisterTidster Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 100	2.5 to 3 star veteran pitchers deeper in the offseason can be had for 1.2 - 3.6. There’s usually 2-4 of them available prior to spring training. I’m also talking about a 4th or 5th guy in the rotation and not a guy in the top three of a rotation. Last edited by MisterTidster; 06-14-2018 at 12:47 PM.

06-16-2018, 09:47 PM	#19
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	you can have perennial cy young-type stats if the other 2 pitches are elite (max, max+). they end up with max+ overall stuff too as an SP -- the type i speak of. i too historicallly liked to use these guys as elite long relief / high lev pitchers, or setup/high leverage for this type of quality. -- assuming >max stuff as a RP role. anyway, anecdotal: had a guy in my pen for 6-7 years of 2+war relief innings/year - consistently phenomenol years. only had 35-40some stamina or thereabouts, and i wasn't going to pay FA SP money for him that he was going to demand and get. his third pitch was 50-56/100 or so. he went to another team as a FA and regularly threw 200+ip and cy young quality numbers for the next 5-7 years. i still wouldn't like him on my team for the low innings as an ace, but great per9 rates and such that match the role for sure on any team. relative to his tamina rating, he got alot of bang for his buck. can't believe he consistently topped 200ip. made me rethink stamina a bit -- let results dictate. it doesn't matter what the rating is, rather how deep are they consistently pitching. what they throw and how good they are is part of that equation too. it's mostly stamina rating, but if i see an elite SP pitching efficiently and deep into games, i take it into consideration too. i always avoided teh 2 elite pitch / 1 average pitch guys before this. i'm more open to it now. it definitely requires greater ability elsewhere to make up for the lacking in the third pitch -- which isn't thrown that often in many real-life cases of good pitchers. 2-pitch guys or a severely hindered 3rd pitch definitely should not be counted on as a starter. Last edited by NoOne; 06-16-2018 at 09:53 PM.

06-09-2018, 04:44 PM	#1
nuwildcat Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 53	Starting Pitcher 3rd Pitch What is an acceptable level for a starter's third pitch on the 20-80 scale? I have always thought it should be above average (55 or higher) but I am starting to think that maybe I should widen my net a bit by allowing it to be lower. Anyone have any thoughts?

06-09-2018, 05:05 PM	#2
chriskelly All Star Reserve Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 753	I think if he has 3, the 3rd has to be around 50. if he has 4, you can have a few at 45. I think the other variable is how often they throw each pitch. If you really wanted to, you could even mess around with the editor and see what combination of pitch types yield the best stuff, although that might not be an indicator of success

06-09-2018, 06:09 PM	#3
stealofhome Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 2,282	I think at least 45 for the game to consider as a starter.

06-10-2018, 10:56 AM	#4
MisterTidster Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 100	I’ve gotten away with 30, but it can be unreliable. Production was good, but FIP was marginal. He had good seasons, but was also a ground ball pitcher with a great defense.

06-10-2018, 02:02 PM	#6
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	be safe keep the third near 1/2 scale (maybe a slightly higher threshold for a lower resolution scale) let results dictate. if they are too much like a 2-pitch pitcher, they will be extremely erratic as SP year-to-year. unfortunately, all SP are quite erratic. by the time you know for sure it'll waste ~5+ years, lol. this is an experiment i avoid due to the time involved and uncertainty. if i end up with a guy like this, it's because it proved consistent results elsewhere and isn't too old, yet. or, maybe as an RP and test the waters as SP in time of need etc. this type of prospect is better to be not counted on / planned around as a cornerstone and if they work out just a bonus or icing on top. definitely don't waste a top 10-15 pick on this type of prospect. maybe even entire first round if 3rd pitch is weaker than 1/2 scale. some do buck that fast and loose rule, but it's against the odds for sure.

06-10-2018, 07:14 PM	#7
nuwildcat Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 53	Thanks everyone. I appreciate the feedback. As I thought I guess I should lower my filter parameters to allow a third pitch of 50 quality. As always the people on this board are very helpful.

06-12-2018, 03:58 AM	#8
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,727 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	I've seen 50 as 3rd pitch on 20-80 do pretty good. As actual and not potential in MLB. Recent irl draftee Matthew Liberatore in my 1 file current was 40 with like 65 potential thought he was safe as I've seen 40 develop while almost never seen under 40 develop (talking about change up here). Had to call him cause of injuries and did as a fill in I had a 70 pitch count on him. Played about 20 games. Next year change-up halted and without the low pitch count lost all effectiveness. If that 3rd pitch is a Change and it has a low current rating in my games I've almost never seen it develop. But IRL it is the hardest for prospects to develop so pretty good mimic. While if 3rd pitch is a slider or curve or something seen them at least get a current rating of 50 way more often even if it never develops to the 75 potential or whatever. They can get by if their other 2 pitches are plus or plus plus as a Starter.

06-12-2018, 11:44 AM	#9
ThePretender All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,331	It depends on the specific pitches, and the quality of each overall pitch. An average sinker with two other 60 pitches may not be good enough. An average fastball with two other 60 pitches will be. The suggested role usually helps. If it says emerg/bullpen/borderline SP, don't waste your time, he's a RP.

06-14-2018, 08:26 AM	#10
Timofmars Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 251	I think you can just ignore the pitches and just look at stuff rating. Overall rating also is a good indicator for starting pitchers. Those ratings seem to already factor in the pitch variety. Changing a player's role from SP to RP will adjust the stuff rating appropriately as well. However, for RPs, the overall rating doesn't seem to match up quite as well with how good I find the players to be. I find that the relievers with fewer pitches are underrated. Those pitchers with 2 pitches can get a huge boost to their stuff rating, but the overall rating doesn't seem to reflect that.

06-14-2018, 08:04 PM	#16
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,727 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	I've had the most success with pitchers around these lines + or - stuff -60 mov - 50 control - 60 I look for 3 or 4 plus pitches. or ++, +, 2 average. A lot of AAA and AA guys fall in these parameters. I and often find that the AI handles there MLB promotion awfully. If they are young enough I'll RP in the majors immediately then the following year make him a SP. I've picked up several pitchers even at A+ that were ready for the bigs. Maybe they are blocked on higher levels or the majors or maybe their gm favors veterans. No idea. Then its like they start out at 2.5 star potential and 2 years in the majors they blow up to like 4 or 5 stars. And even in challenge mode the trade isn't bad because the other team doesn't value them. All their SP prospect are the ++ stuff or ++ control and 4 or 5 star potential already. But their biggest problem often is 3rd pitch change up at current 30 with potential 80 and chances of that developing is like getting hit by lighting. Maybe worst.

06-16-2018, 12:28 PM	#18
MisterTidster Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 100	Yeah, that makes a huge difference. Playing against real people forces you to adapt to changes a lot more and “value” changes as others adapt. Playing against the AI is much more consistent and forgiving and seems to break down into gaming the system more.

06-17-2018, 01:11 AM	#20
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,727 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	Yeah I often find stamina is not the #1 reason they cant get deep into games. Its the pitch count and get they can through or to the 3rd go of the lineup. A low starter stamina say 20-80 I go with is 45. And he can pitch 7 innings often 8 per game but he needs to be dealing. Not having 100 pitches in 3/4 innings because he is either giving up hits or struggling to get outs. Good mechanics and pitch quality/quantity with low stamina should be ok a lot of the times now if they aren't excelling in those areas thats asking for trouble at least for me.