Arbitration

robc999 · 05-22-2018, 10:13 AM

Hi, a rookie question from a Brit who needs help with the wonderful world of baseball sometimes.

I'm half way through my first season and thoroughly enjoying. Then I started investigating arbitration...

After an hour or so on the net I think I have just about got my head around the concept in the real world (or as much as I ever will) but a couple of questions on what I see on my OOTP screen.

Taking one of my guys, Dinelson Lamet as an example I see as his salary:

2018 - 556k
2019 - 556k auto
2020 - 700k A*
2021 - 700k A
2022 - 1.1million A
2023 - 1.5 million A

I have two questions:

1. I see A* = Possibly Arbitration Eligible. Where does the 'possibly' come from and what factors will determine whether he is arbitration eligible or not?
2. The numbers that have been assigned in 2020-2023. Where have these numbers come from? He hasn't been to arbitration as yet so we can't know what he is going to get can we? Is this just the game giving a prediction as to what he will get? And if it is a game prediction how often does the game update its prediction?

Many thanks for any help.

Orcin · 05-22-2018, 10:22 AM

1. The arbitration clock does not run while the player is in the minors. So he might not accumulate enough days to qualify.

2. It is an estimate, updated frequently.

eriqjaffe · 05-22-2018, 10:39 AM

As a side note, in real life salary arbitration can be a very contentious process - the team has to literally argue why a player isn't worth what they player thinks they're worth, and that doesn't always sit well with the player. As a result, the vast majority of arbitration-eligible cases never actually go to arbitration because the teams negotiate contracts that essentially override arbitration. While these are often 1-year deals, sometimes teams will sign longer-term contracts that guarantee the player will never go to arbitration - for example, Chris Sale signed such a contract with the White Sox before the 2013 season started.

I'm not entirely sure if OOTP really takes this into account or if I'm imagining that it does, but I have always been under the impression that going to arbitration with players makes it harder to negotiate contract extensions with them down the line. Whether it does or doesn't, I almost always try to extend my arbitration-eligible players because it's more realistic.

Rosco Peabody · 05-22-2018, 10:40 AM

If your guy has over two years in the majors, the top certain percentage (I forget what it is) of service time, become arbitration eligible a year early.

It might be the top 10 or 15% of automatic salary guys become eligible early or something like that.

Rosco Peabody · 05-22-2018, 10:42 AM

I remember! They are Super 2 players who reach arbitration before their third year:

From MLB:

Players typically must accrue three years of Major League service time -- with one year of service time equaling 172 days on the 25-man roster or the Major League disabled list -- to become eligible for salary arbitration. Super Two is a designation that allows a select group of players to become eligible for arbitration before reaching three years of service time.

To qualify for the Super Two designation, players must rank in the top 22 percent, in terms of service time, among those who have amassed between two and three years in the Majors. Typically, this applies to players who have two years and at least 130 days of service time, although the specific cutoff date varies on a year-to-year basis.
Example

Dexter Fowler completed the 2011 season with two years and 168 days of Major League service time, which made him one of the leaders in service time among players who had between two and three years in the Majors. Thus, the outfielder qualified as a Super Two player and was eligible for arbitration. Fowler went through arbitration four times before reaching free agency following the 2015 season.

robc999 · 05-22-2018, 11:57 AM

Thanks all. Much appreciated.

Matt Arnold · 05-22-2018, 12:49 PM

Yep, the above covers it well.

Basically, if a player is on the major roster, we assume he'll be there the rest of the year. Guys who are "possibly" eligible tend to be those super-2 guys as above, and since that super-2 date isn't known until the end of the season, we at least like to give you a warning when a guy might be eligible.

The estimates are just that, estimates. They're updated as needed, so Lamet could pitch a perfect game and tomorrow when you check the estimates maybe he's pegged for an extra 1M. But they'll vary a lot - for example, if he ends up in arbitration for the 2020 A* year, then his 2021 year is obviously going to be more than 700k, since we'll at least estimate him for the 10-15% raise he'd be due. I wouldn't put too much stock in them - I find they tend to be pretty low for most people, but you can think of it somewhat as putting a little money aside for them, so you can see if you have a lot of guys with high estimates, it might be worth thinking now about your budget a few years down the road.

05-22-2018, 10:13 AM	#1
robc999 Bat Boy Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 8	Arbitration Hi, a rookie question from a Brit who needs help with the wonderful world of baseball sometimes. I'm half way through my first season and thoroughly enjoying. Then I started investigating arbitration... After an hour or so on the net I think I have just about got my head around the concept in the real world (or as much as I ever will) but a couple of questions on what I see on my OOTP screen. Taking one of my guys, Dinelson Lamet as an example I see as his salary: 2018 - 556k 2019 - 556k auto 2020 - 700k A* 2021 - 700k A 2022 - 1.1million A 2023 - 1.5 million A I have two questions: 1. I see A* = Possibly Arbitration Eligible. Where does the 'possibly' come from and what factors will determine whether he is arbitration eligible or not? 2. The numbers that have been assigned in 2020-2023. Where have these numbers come from? He hasn't been to arbitration as yet so we can't know what he is going to get can we? Is this just the game giving a prediction as to what he will get? And if it is a game prediction how often does the game update its prediction? Many thanks for any help.

05-22-2018, 10:39 AM	#3
eriqjaffe Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Location: Under The Christmas Fish Posts: 7,647	As a side note, in real life salary arbitration can be a very contentious process - the team has to literally argue why a player isn't worth what they player thinks they're worth, and that doesn't always sit well with the player. As a result, the vast majority of arbitration-eligible cases never actually go to arbitration because the teams negotiate contracts that essentially override arbitration. While these are often 1-year deals, sometimes teams will sign longer-term contracts that guarantee the player will never go to arbitration - for example, Chris Sale signed such a contract with the White Sox before the 2013 season started. I'm not entirely sure if OOTP really takes this into account or if I'm imagining that it does, but I have always been under the impression that going to arbitration with players makes it harder to negotiate contract extensions with them down the line. Whether it does or doesn't, I almost always try to extend my arbitration-eligible players because it's more realistic. __________________

05-22-2018, 10:22 AM	#2
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,850	1. The arbitration clock does not run while the player is in the minors. So he might not accumulate enough days to qualify. 2. It is an estimate, updated frequently.

05-22-2018, 10:40 AM	#4
Rosco Peabody All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: South of Boston, Massachusetts Posts: 1,092	If your guy has over two years in the majors, the top certain percentage (I forget what it is) of service time, become arbitration eligible a year early. It might be the top 10 or 15% of automatic salary guys become eligible early or something like that.

05-22-2018, 10:42 AM	#5
Rosco Peabody All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: South of Boston, Massachusetts Posts: 1,092	I remember! They are Super 2 players who reach arbitration before their third year: From MLB: Players typically must accrue three years of Major League service time -- with one year of service time equaling 172 days on the 25-man roster or the Major League disabled list -- to become eligible for salary arbitration. Super Two is a designation that allows a select group of players to become eligible for arbitration before reaching three years of service time. To qualify for the Super Two designation, players must rank in the top 22 percent, in terms of service time, among those who have amassed between two and three years in the Majors. Typically, this applies to players who have two years and at least 130 days of service time, although the specific cutoff date varies on a year-to-year basis. Example Dexter Fowler completed the 2011 season with two years and 168 days of Major League service time, which made him one of the leaders in service time among players who had between two and three years in the Majors. Thus, the outfielder qualified as a Super Two player and was eligible for arbitration. Fowler went through arbitration four times before reaching free agency following the 2015 season.

05-22-2018, 11:57 AM	#6
robc999 Bat Boy Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 8	Thanks all. Much appreciated.

05-22-2018, 12:49 PM	#7
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 15,843	Yep, the above covers it well. Basically, if a player is on the major roster, we assume he'll be there the rest of the year. Guys who are "possibly" eligible tend to be those super-2 guys as above, and since that super-2 date isn't known until the end of the season, we at least like to give you a warning when a guy might be eligible. The estimates are just that, estimates. They're updated as needed, so Lamet could pitch a perfect game and tomorrow when you check the estimates maybe he's pegged for an extra 1M. But they'll vary a lot - for example, if he ends up in arbitration for the 2020 A* year, then his 2021 year is obviously going to be more than 700k, since we'll at least estimate him for the 10-15% raise he'd be due. I wouldn't put too much stock in them - I find they tend to be pretty low for most people, but you can think of it somewhat as putting a little money aside for them, so you can see if you have a lot of guys with high estimates, it might be worth thinking now about your budget a few years down the road.