How accurate is the potential stat

Brume · 05-16-2018, 11:07 AM

Im looking for trade, and just for general knowledge. How accurate is the potential stat. For example, i understand the fact that potential is a long shot estimate to a player development. But what about this 18 years old kid, that have a star ratting and a star potential. Does it mean the player will never develop no matter what??

I also found that age factor is quite irrelevant in that game. Most player around 35+ have the same potential that their ratting, but they should start decrease at that point of their career..

eriqjaffe · 05-16-2018, 11:38 AM

The accuracy largely depends on how good your scouting is, and potential ratings are never a guarantee because of the development engine - just like in real life, big prospects may never develop or flame out and guys who never seemed like much can become superstars.

NoOne · 05-16-2018, 02:00 PM

age and service time matter will affect early scouting, not mlb vets so much. far less accurate with draftees / rookies than AAA players. unless you have 100% accuracy, most of the flameouts are actually bad scouting. most of the surprises are bad scouting too. using 50-100 TCR setting, in my experience.

then, of course, the random development process. work ethic/intelligence should increase probability of development. if they've shown ratings increases consistently, i'm pretty confident in those guys with a history.

potential or overall is good for sorting and maybe a resulting range of quality you conisder ~equal when comparing 2 or more players for same role/position. potential is the same calculation as overall, so you can look at it the same way along with normal risks of developement.

i would be the single largest factor in it's usefulness is the resolution of that scale. e.g. an 11-pt scale 0-5 stars won't give as precise info as a 20-80scale (by 1's).

edit: unmet potential by 28+ is most likely never to developem fyi.

RchW · 05-16-2018, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brume

Im looking for trade, and just for general knowledge. How accurate is the potential stat. For example, i understand the fact that potential is a long shot estimate to a player development. But what about this 18 years old kid, that have a star ratting and a star potential. Does it mean the player will never develop no matter what??

I also found that age factor is quite irrelevant in that game. Most player around 35+ have the same potential that their ratting, but they should start decrease at that point of their career..

You can have this in your game by checking yes on the spot marked below. I find it far more realistic.

Edit the potential decline happens earlier than you'd expect.

chriskelly · 06-09-2018, 05:09 PM

I wish that in the trading block, you could set what you want to see back in the summary, instead of current and potential ratings only.

05-16-2018, 11:07 AM	#1
Brume Bat Boy Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 3	How accurate is the potential stat Im looking for trade, and just for general knowledge. How accurate is the potential stat. For example, i understand the fact that potential is a long shot estimate to a player development. But what about this 18 years old kid, that have a star ratting and a star potential. Does it mean the player will never develop no matter what?? I also found that age factor is quite irrelevant in that game. Most player around 35+ have the same potential that their ratting, but they should start decrease at that point of their career..

05-16-2018, 11:38 AM	#2
eriqjaffe Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Location: Under The Christmas Fish Posts: 7,731	The accuracy largely depends on how good your scouting is, and potential ratings are never a guarantee because of the development engine - just like in real life, big prospects may never develop or flame out and guys who never seemed like much can become superstars. __________________

05-16-2018, 02:00 PM	#3
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	age and service time matter will affect early scouting, not mlb vets so much. far less accurate with draftees / rookies than AAA players. unless you have 100% accuracy, most of the flameouts are actually bad scouting. most of the surprises are bad scouting too. using 50-100 TCR setting, in my experience. then, of course, the random development process. work ethic/intelligence should increase probability of development. if they've shown ratings increases consistently, i'm pretty confident in those guys with a history. potential or overall is good for sorting and maybe a resulting range of quality you conisder ~equal when comparing 2 or more players for same role/position. potential is the same calculation as overall, so you can look at it the same way along with normal risks of developement. i would be the single largest factor in it's usefulness is the resolution of that scale. e.g. an 11-pt scale 0-5 stars won't give as precise info as a 20-80scale (by 1's). edit: unmet potential by 28+ is most likely never to developem fyi. Last edited by NoOne; 05-16-2018 at 06:36 PM.

06-09-2018, 05:09 PM	#5
chriskelly All Star Reserve Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 753	I wish that in the trading block, you could set what you want to see back in the summary, instead of current and potential ratings only.