Question about AI roster management... or lack thereof...

[bigd51]

So... I guess the question I have is, what exactly does the AI go by when making decisions about who to promote/demote through their MiL system?

I see a lot of teams (and even my own Assistant GM, as I delegate my own MiL promotion/demotion decisions to him) let guys linger in the MiL system too long when they not only have the ratings to justify a promotion, but the stats to back it up as well. I usually have to lock and promote guys just so the AI doesn't keep them grounded.

For instance, in the 1st attachment below, the Royals have a LF on their A+ team. He's 22 now, was drafted 18th overall in 2018, has been tearing it up in the minors based on his stats and also has solid ratings that justify him at least to be playing in AAA by now, if not the main roster. But for some reason, the Royals let him linger in their rookie leagues for 3 years and refuse to promote him to where he should technically be.

My league's AI Player Evaluation Settings are default:

65% Ratings Weight
20% Current Year Stats Weight
10% Previous Year Stats Weight
5% 2 Years Ago Stats Weight

I thought this may be the reason, but when looking at current Royals GM, Dayton Moore's Player Valuation settings in his profile, his Scout Value setting is in the red, while his Current Year Stats setting is one tick away from max, in the dark blue. And judging by the player's stats, below, and Moore's high value for Current Year Stats, there's no reason this guy should only be in A+. Going into Commissioner Mode and viewing KC's rosters, he also has a "green arrow" and when promoting him myself to AAA, he has no arrow, which tells me he at least qualifies for AAA.

Also, I know some may say that MY scout could value him differently than THEIR scout... but both scouts "Highly Favor Ability" and they have Excellent and Outstanding ratings for "Scout Minors". So it's not a case of my scout having a drastically different value than theirs.

Take Ronald Acuña, Jr. as a real life example. His first year, at 17 years old, he played in the Rookie Leagues. His second year, at 18, he played 40 games in Single A, and his third year, at 19, he soared through 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA) and is now on the main roster in his 4th year, at age 20. This guy below has stats that would blow Acuña's out of the water, yet he spent 3 full seasons in the Rookie Leagues when Acuña only spent 1.

They also have a pitcher in their Rookie League right now (second attachment) they drafted 4th overall in '20 at the age of 22. Decent ratings, decent enough stats, "green arrow" beside his name... yet he hasn't made it past A+ either and he's now 24. When moving him, myself, to AA (in commissioner mode), there's no arrow, which tells me he's at least qualified for AA.

Real life comparison, Kyle Wright. Drafted 5th overall last year at age 21 by the Braves, only pitched 17 total innings between Rookie and A+ his first year, and started this year (and currently still) in AA at 22.

Another guy (3rd attachment) that was in the Royals system, before I traded for him. Drafted 3rd overall, at 21 years old and I found him in A+ at 24, despite being over-qualified like the 2 aforementioned. He's got the stats, the ratings, and had a "green arrow" even after I moved him to their AAA team, meaning he was MLB ready. Yet they continued to slow-cook him.

Real life comparison, Francisco Mejia. Granted, they slow-cooked him... but he was only 17 when he was added to their Rookie League. This guy was 21 when he was drafted 3rd overall. If this were real life, I feel his stats would be enough to justify him being promoted higher and quicker before I got my hands on him. And even the "green arrow" is saying these guys could move up, but the AI doesn't have the awareness of their stats, ratings, main roster needs, how high they were drafted, or their age to properly promote guys through their farm system.

I just haven't been able to figure out why the AI keeps guys in the lower leagues when they're over-qualified... and in the Royals case (who've been in rebuild mode for the past 2-3 years), why aren't they trying to get these guys through their farm system quicker to the main roster?

[Timofmars]

I usually handle the promotion of at least my minor league guys with good potential, so I'm not sure how the AI operates. But my first guess would be that maybe the AI just generally puts the best guys in AAA until they have a full 25 man roster, and then the next best 25 go to AA, and so on. Do you happen to have any higher skilled players that already fill their positions in the league levels above them?

[Calvert98]

Keeping in mind the FoW of scouting (your scouts may see something different),

Viny, 22 is already in High A, moving two levels in one year. I’d expect he’d be in AA by next year if he continues to keep up that hitting pace.

Oliver, got rocked, then posted a 3 area ERA, and now is getting rocked again.

The only one I may question would be Shea; but he’s a catcher, and looking at his avg, although only 76 AB,s he not doing so well.

Your question is interesting however. It does seem to me overall, in just looking at the guys you noted, that the AI moves here can be explained, with “IRL” logic.

[Calvert98]

By the way, if you want to see some odd "real-life" promotions logic, check out Richard Bleier's minor-league numbers and situation starting from 2013 to 2017.

[PSUColonel]

Falcon and Tostitos may be underwhelmed at their current levels. I might actually consider promoting them a level.

[bigd51]

Originally Posted by Calvert98

Keeping in mind the FoW of scouting (your scouts may see something different)

Like I said above, my scout for Atlanta and the Royals scout both "highly favor ability". My scout has a "outstanding" rating for "scout minors" while the Royals scout has an "excellent" rating. Their values for these guys and what they see shouldn't be far off.

Viny, 22 is already in High A, moving two levels in one year. I’d expect he’d be in AA by next year if he continues to keep up that hitting pace.

Already in A+... but he spent 3 years in Rookie league despite hitting well above .330 each year. IRL, Ronald Acuña was in AAA by year 3

Oliver, got rocked, then posted a 3 area ERA, and now is getting rocked again.

Fair enough... but even if he was killing it, like Vinny is, the AI still keeps them grounded for far too long. And pitchers notoriously struggle in single A and A+ in the game, especially right when they are called up... but I usually leave them there and let them settle in for a while and see their ERA's start to shrink as the year goes on. The AI, on the otherhand, panics after a month and sends them back down to Rookie. In his case, he's already spent 2 seasons in Rookie. And now, they have moved him back to Rookie after only a month in A+. I don't see how keeping him in Rookie is going to help his progression at 24 years old.

Your question is interesting however. It does seem to me overall, in just looking at the guys you noted, that the AI moves here can be explained, with “IRL” logic.

I'll give you another example: Gleyber Torres.

IRL, already on the main roster for the Yankees. But in the game, he spent the entirety of '18 in AAA. In '19, he spent the entirety of the year in AAA before being called up for Roster Expansion for the last month of the season. Then, he spent the first month of '20 in AAA again before finally being called up to the main roster for good.

[bigd51]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

Falcon and Tostitos may be underwhelmed at their current levels. I might actually consider promoting them a level.

They are very underwhelmed, IMO. If I were playing as the Royals, I'd for sure be promoting these guys, but the AI, for whatever reason, doesn't want to.

[Calvert98]

Originally Posted by bigd51

Like I said above, my scout for Atlanta and the Royals scout both "highly favor ability". My scout has a "outstanding" rating for "scout minors" while the Royals scout has an "excellent" rating. Their values for these guys and what they see shouldn't be far off.

That's true; could be a bit different, but not much.

Originally Posted by bigd51

Already in A+... but he spent 3 years in Rookie league despite hitting well above .330 each year. IRL, Ronald Acuña was in AAA by year 3

Right, but he was only 18 (with a December birthday), as HS draft pick, at a first rounder, when he entered the rookie league. A lot of filling-out occurs between 18 and 21. And then at 22, where he is really developing, two promotions in 1 year.

Originally Posted by bigd51

Fair enough... but even if he was killing it, like Vinny is, the AI still keeps them grounded for far too long. And pitchers notoriously struggle in single A and A+ in the game, especially right when they are called up... but I usually leave them there and let them settle in for a while and see their ERA's start to shrink as the year goes on. The AI, on the otherhand, panics after a month and sends them back down to Rookie. In his case, he's already spent 2 seasons in Rookie. And now, they have moved him back to Rookie after only a month in A+. I don't see how keeping him in Rookie is going to help his progression at 24 years old

That might be true, but I have seen instances where the opposite has occurred. I don't have the game open right now, but I have seen a some really green guys make the 25 man roster, in what seems like only a few years in the minors.

Originally Posted by bigd51

I'll give you another example: Gleyber Torres.

IRL, already on the main roster for the Yankees. But in the game, he spent the entirety of '18 in AAA. In '19, he spent the entirety of the year in AAA before being called up for Roster Expansion for the last month of the season. Then, he spent the first month of '20 in AAA again before finally being called up to the main roster for good.

Well, as you know, the game logic may not always equate to moves in IRL, but that sort of goes to what I am thinking the AI management is doing. And that is a good example. Gleyber Torres is only 21 and he turns 22 after the season, and that would be more of an exception. Manny is another, upon which candidly, I think the organization somewhat regrets starting his MLB service clock early.

[Shoeless' Socks]

Roster Management in '19 is abysmal. Rule 5 Draft is completely broken.

It just is the truth.

[Calvert98]

Originally Posted by Shoeless' Socks

Roster Management in '19 is abysmal. Rule 5 Draft is completely broken.

It just is the truth.

Overall, I think the AI's roster management has improved, but I've only been through one off-season for 19, and didn't pay a lot of attention to the Rule 5 Draft, other than that I lost a guy who was pretty decent.

However, I have read here that folks have mentioned that there are issues with the Rule 5 Draft; I'll probably pay more attention to it this next off-season.

[Qeltar]

What's the issue with the Rule 5 draft?

If I had to guess it would be teams not protecting enough of the right prospects. I found some pretty decent pickings in the one I did, though I also lost a player myself, and there was nothing truly outrageous.

[Calvert98]

Originally Posted by Qeltar

What's the issue with the Rule 5 draft?

If I had to guess it would be teams not protecting enough of the right prospects. I found some pretty decent pickings in the one I did, though I also lost a player myself, and there was nothing truly outrageous.

Right, I was thinking that might be it. I did a quick search for any threads (thought I saw one) on issues for Rule 5, but didn't find anything; there could be one somewhere.

During my first Rule 5 draft in 19, I only glanced at the draft pool, and didn't see anyone of interest for my team, however I wasn't focused on it.

[Shoeless' Socks]

The AI is not using logic properly to move recently acquired FAs from the DSL to their 40 man rosters. Hence, proven MLB players signed in FA are in the Rule 5 pool. Also, WAY too many players are being chosen, and in situations where it makes absolutely no sense. Single A players that hit .230 the year before are being taken by championship level MLB teams, etc.

It's a logic breakdown. I've had rule 5 drafts where 10-20 players are taken in the first round when in reality, 1-3 players should logically be taken.

I get that 'its just a game' but this is broken, and has been since '19's release.

[Calvert98]

Originally Posted by Shoeless' Socks

The AI is not using logic properly to move recently acquired FAs from the DSL to their 40 man rosters. Hence, proven MLB players signed in FA are in the Rule 5 pool.

Ok, thanks for explaining this.

I don't think the number is an issue (weren't there more than 10 taken in the first ML phase in round 1 in 2017?), but if recently acquired FAs and proven MLB guys are not being moved to the 40 man, that would be rather odd. And they are ending-up in the pool (they are eligible?).

I don't recall seeing this, but that does not mean it's not happening. I mean, Rule 5 is in December right? So, you are saying that in your save, basically MLB ready FAs signed roughly between FA starting and Rule 5 are not being assigned to the 40-man by the Clubs that signed them during that period, and are being thrown into the Rule 5 Draft pool. That is strange. Could this be a setting issue somehow? Are other folks seeing this? I will pay closer attention to this during my next Rule 5 Draft.

[Qeltar]

I haven't noticed it myself but it's interesting if it is happening to others.

My main issue with the Rule 5 so far is the utter disconnect between how GMs seem to value guys in trades and whether or not they protect them. At one point I was trying to trade for an SS in the Yankees organization, and they wouldn't part with him for anything short of an established major leaguer. And then there he is, free for the taking (well, mostly free).

There also seem to be some similar issues with foreign free agents entering the FA pool in December. Aside from the issue of god-like players seeming to materialize out of thin air, teams don't seem to evaluate foreign FAs properly, especially the ones that only want a minor league contract that becomes MLB if promoted. I nabbed one of these when any other MLB team could have just signed him for a reasonable price and chose not to. Then for the following two weeks nearly everyone tried to trade me for him. He literally cost me nothing and had very good trade value.

I'd like to see minor league salaries implemented at least. Right now signing minor leaguers with even a chance of becoming good is basically a no brainer.

[Eugene Church]

Don't won't to hijack your thread and get it off subject... ignore my comment if needed.

Is it me... or in general is the AI just plain bad with roster management?

I stopped using the minor leagues long ago because the stats were not realistic compared to real life... 2006, I think was the last year... (I'm sure the AI is better now).

Players with good stats not promoted... poor players promoted.

In detail situations, I have seen it pinch hit for Ty Cobb in one of my leagues, replacing him with a right-hand hitter to face a lefty... the pinch hitter was batting .250... Cobb hit over .350 against lefties in my league.

It platoons too much... often it will platoon a player that is far better than the sub... the AI is fanatical about lefty/righty situations.

Another pet peeve, the AI is slow to retire aging players.

Again... if this is not on subject... ignore me.

[Shoeless' Socks]

I am very hopeful that '20 is an overhaul of these kinds of issues since so much went into the UI this year.