Judging how much salary a player is worth

[Wibbster]

Hey,

So this is something I keep running into. When a player is coming towards the end of his contract, how do you judge whether their demands are fair when negotiating an extension?

For example, I'm managing Toronto, and Josh Donaldson has 1 year left @ $23m. Offering him an extension, he's asking for 5 years @ $40m per year. This is a HUGE increase, but I'm also aware that he is the team's star player by a long long way. So is there a way of getting some sense of what is a 'reasonable' salary for a player like this?

Thanks in advance,

Wibbs

[pgjocki]

Unfortunately it varies by league but I never pay absolute top dollar as a matter of principle.

If you really think he is worth a major deal offer him the following:

$28 mil
$28.5 mil
$29 mil
Opt out
$29 mil
Team option
$29 with $3 mil buy out

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Wibbster]

I guess what I'm asking is whether there's a way of judging from their stats what a 'reasonable' salary would be. Maybe something linked to WAR?

[Timofmars]

Sure, WAR is a good measurement of player's relative values. But it's more complicated than that.

One thing it depends on is how much money you have. If you are a rich team with a lot of budget room, then the money has less value to you. You should be willing to pay a lot more for perhaps even a somewhat marginally better superstar. But if you are on a tight budget, you may find a better use of your budget is spreading it across a few above average players that give the best WAR per dollar.

Another consideration should be what your alternative choice would be. If the player's position has a lot of other talented players that are only slightly weaker than your superstar, but those other players can be acquired for just a fraction of the price and allow you to make more improvements elsewhere with the savings, it would make sense to let the player go. But if this superstar is a freak with a really large gap in ability between him and the next best player you could acquire, it may be worth it.

This is complicated by the fact that you may not really know what alternative player you could acquire. You could look at upcoming free agents and maybe check if the team has enough money to resign the player, or if they have another comparable player in the same position so that they wouldn't want to pay for 2 at the same position. Or maybe you have someone already in your team. Or you can attempt to trade for someone to see what you'd have to give up, which may be worth more to you than the cash of the player's salary.

Also, 40M is really high. Even 23M is quite huge. So you could consider letting the player go to free agency, and then being able to resign them for much lower than their initial demand. Just give the player a 15M qualifying offer so that you get a comp draft pick if he is picked up by another team. After that, just watch him and watch who is interested. In OOTPB 18 at least, you can see who is interested in the player on the MLB offseason page where it shows the top free agents ordered by their contract demands. Or you can click the button to go to the offer contract page, and the player will mention if anyone is interested. As long as he hasn't gotten any offers, you can wait and let his demands fall.

[NoOne]

alot of this is for more than just the OP... sme stuff will be too simple and other stuff will be new depending on experience with ootp.

you should have an idea of how many big contracts you can afford relative to your market size... this will let you know when to trade before you paint yourself intoa corner next year as you need to sign "3" non-arbitration players to extensions etc etc...

extensions can be very bad deals... they aren't always cost-savers... when they are good deals, you should jump on them. (40M probably isn't a good deal unless it's an extremely high-revenue league)

my question would be.. do many players make ~40m/year in your league? if not, you will probably save money if you let them hit FA and watch for their demand to drop to a normal range and make sure to throw your hat into the ring at the proper time and before they get signed.

try to save too much and you will realize the risk involved. always a chance they could exceed that demand with the right teams involved and enough demand/money avialable at that particular moment.

experience helps: once the season is started, take a glance 1/year at your Financial Report [sic] every year. it shoulws top 25 salaries for that year. become familiar with this list. how high does it ever go? who typically gets those contracts? etc... (useless hint: sluggers and SP).

also, pay attention in FA even if you aren't targettign anyone until you really udnerstand its innerworkings. just track the top guys... watch their initial demands drop.. how long it takes to drop incrementally.. markets invovled, budgets of thos teams etc. info from finances report helps a lot here too.

all of this info is needed to guage value and expected contract they will receive... demand means nothing unless it's a "deal."

i have a custom financial environemnt, not default:

e.g. i know 20-32M/year will be for the superstars.. some may not be worthy, but every real superstar will get it when they go to FA. (ie some imposters, but no superstar will short sell themselves outside of a specific situation). 20-25M is a "better" deal and ~30M is expensive even for a future hoF. that doens't mean i won't pay someone that much in the right situation, but i won't allow it to hurt me in the future. either trade before that point or set term to match window of excess budget space etc...

so, in arbitratin years any time i see a sub-$20-ish million/year or better request, i typically jump on that chance. i try not to buy more than 2 years of arbitration, but sometimes they sign on the cheap if you offer early on.

always click "offer extension" but don't submit any offer... figure out who is willing and who is not each year... it can change too... just because they are intrested in a 1 or multiyear deal one year, doesn't mean they will the next (either way).

it's all about efficient spending and never painting yourself into a corner. money is what controls your ceiling of sucess 100%. how you handle it can squeeze out more wins.

draw a line in teh sand for a player.. if it crosses that line you walk away. simple as that. it could be different due to budget concerns at any given time.

when i am up against a 250M hard cap in my league in the next 2-5 years, i'm not often shelling out 30M/year for any player... if i do i will defintely trade a player before it is a financial problem.. musical chairs. sometimes a downgrade is really an upgrade because you have to consider where the "savings" are spent too.

superstars > above average or good players by a large distance... you should sign as many as you can afford while still filling out your team with reputable contributors.

high threshold for a superstar... e.g. always ~.300 and above or always high-end power-hitter and a reputable average that doesn't dip too low etc etc too complicated to spell all of it out in a specific manner.. they whould look different to the eye when you comparee their careers... if they hav ejunky years they aren't worth top dollar and are not superstars.

there may only be 2-3 superstars at each position -- the perception with which i am using this word may be different than yours, so change the word i use if you don't like it.. maybe less for SS/CF/C etc. and more for SP since every team has 5. maybe 10-15 SP would qualify for that in any given year? (any not always 80/80 current ability etiher. some guys perform better with slightly lower overall.. but they are still highly-rated)