Trade two 3.5 star SP prospects for one 5 star SP prospect?

tedstriker · 04-20-2018, 08:00 AM

I haven't advanced in my game for almost a week because I can't decide about a trade. Specifically, I have a trade opportunity to get an amazing 5 star SP prospect, but I would have to give up two 3.5 star SP prospects.

Basically, is one potential Cy Young winner worth twice as much as two above average, possibly even all-star pitchers?

My main concern is that with two prospects, I have a better chance of having at least one of them develop. I would hate to make the trade and end up having the 5 star prospect never develop.

The 5-star SP is also only 20. The two 3.5 stars are 22 and 23. One of them has started to show a little development and has a actual rating of 1.5 stars, but the other is still at 0.5 stars.

Any advice would be appreciated.

Silfir · 04-20-2018, 08:38 AM

There's always a reason that the AI wants a trade.

It's likely the AI scouting director evaluates the players differently. If the 5-star guy is only 4 stars or less in their eyes, and they can get two very similarly talented prospects for him, it'd be a no-brainer.

Never trust overall ratings alone. Look at the 5-star guy more closely; how many pitches does he have? Do they show signs of development? Is his Stamina well above the mark required for starting, or is there a risk of him dipping into relief pitcher range? Check your own guys and keep their values in mind as well.

For example, an "SP" pitching prospect that has two main pitches and a changeup stuck at the minimum value, but with a massive potential, has high odds of never realizing that potential and being stuck as a reliever.

Generally speaking, the farther away the current ratings are from the potential, the more speculative and less reliable is your scout's estimation.

I'd need complete information (screenshots of the player profiles) to be certain, but from what you've told me I'd keep the two prospects.

Shoeless' Socks · 04-20-2018, 09:10 AM

I'd keep the two guys.

Critical Mass · 04-20-2018, 10:22 AM

Did the computer offer the trade to you? If so I wouldn't do it because like the above poster said, the computer probably has a very good reason for making you the offer.

the other thing I would have to look at it as the rest of your pitching staff. If you already have a staff that you're happy with and only need one more piece, go for it. if you have a weak pitching staff and are really not trying to make a run for the World Series this year, keep the prospects.

tedstriker · 04-20-2018, 10:26 AM

I'll post pictures of all the players later, but from what I can recall the 5 star prospect has no apparent weaknesses. His stamina was 80, his stuff potential was 80. Control and movement potential was 60-70 IIRC. He had solid potential for 4 pitches, so little risk of ending up as a reliever. His character was described as hard working, which I believe increases the chances of developing.

IIRC, the 3.5 pitchers had potential between 50-65 for everything. They were significantly more developed though, with actual ratings around 40 for everything, whereas the 5 star prospect was still in the 25-35 range for actual ratings.

Could this mean that the AI knows the 5 star prospect isn't going to develop? Isn't that determined somewhat randomly?

tedstriker · 04-20-2018, 10:31 AM

The computer did not offer the trade. I always try to obtain some prospects around the deadline, and for some reason this team was willing to give up the top pitching prospect in the league.

My team is in first place, but the starting staff is ranked in the low 20s (in an fictional MLB structure). I'm pretty much in rebuilding mode, which makes me kind of prefer the two ok prospects, but the 5 star prospect just looks ridiculous.

tedstriker · 04-20-2018, 10:32 AM

I should also point out that I have a number of 2.5 and 3 star SP prospects already, so it isn't like this would completely drain my minor league system.

Orcin · 04-20-2018, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tedstriker

IIRC, the 3.5 pitchers had potential between 50-65 for everything. They were significantly more developed though, with actual ratings around 40 for everything, whereas the 5 star prospect was still in the 25-35 range for actual ratings.

Could this mean that the AI knows the 5 star prospect isn't going to develop? Isn't that determined somewhat randomly?

It is not pre-determined or known to the AI, so the AI knows what you know. However, the prospect is in the AI's system, so his scout may see something (more accurately) that you don't. For example, his ceiling ratings on one or two of those pitches may not be as high.

I used to make this type of trade often. I got tired of seeing the hot prospect flame out or get hurt and one of the two traded pitchers become a good starter on someone else's team.

Timofmars · 04-20-2018, 11:56 AM

I would probably trade. I can get plenty of average potential talent pretty easily. But top talent is rare and very hard to pry away. Those are the special players at the end of the bell curve that dominate the game and can give WAR greater than multiple average players. So I'd have no problem taking a chance on a player like that.

Of course, I would look at how far along each prospect is and consider the likelyhood that they would be able to make the progress needed before they become too old and development stops.

The AI team is probably most interested in your prospect that is already capable of playing in the ML, and they probably can use him in the rotation right now.

Also, try looking at it the other way around. I'd bet you and probably many others posting here would never give away your 5 star pitching prospect for a pair of 3.5 star prospects. I know I wouldn't, so that why I'd make the trade. I think that falls under the pyschological fallacy of loss aversion.

tedstriker · 04-20-2018, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Timofmars

Also, try looking at it the other way around. I'd bet you and probably many others posting here would never give away your 5 star pitching prospect for a pair of 3.5 star prospects. I know I wouldn't, so that why I'd make the trade. I think that falls under the pyschological fallacy of loss aversion.

Wow, very insightful! I also wouldn't give up the 5 star pitcher and yet feel reluctant trading for him because of this "pain of losing. "

I think you might have convinced me.

tedstriker · 04-22-2018, 04:10 PM

Well, I pulled the trigger on the trade. You will never believe what happened. At the end of the season, the 20-year 5 star prospect I traded for decided to
retire. Seriously?

Has anyone ever seen a 20-year prospect retire? He was literally the top rated prospect in the league.

Critical Mass · 04-22-2018, 05:50 PM

I once had a top prospect get a career-ending injury in his rookie year, but that's it.

NoOne · 04-22-2018, 06:44 PM

i'll take a cy young type guy over 2 #3-4ish in rotation SP.

depends on the players of course. i.e. not all 5 star guys are actually great as far as their results. the depth you have at SP is important, too. are you a playoff team now or soon? etc etc... many factors to consider.

i prefer to take a long-term view on things. i prefer an elite player over above average. elite in ratings as well as stats = way more consistent, and can dominate and/or compete with playoff caliber competition etc. sometimes these preferences conflict and i let the context dictate which is more important at that time.

age isn't a concern if you trade before they take any ratings hits from decrapitation, but if it's a ~1-2 year rental, that severely diminishes the return. @ 20, you have to worry about accuracy of scouting... if he's got 2-3 years of pro ball under his belt, it's probably accurate... if he's in his 1st year, that's a different story at that age. at 20, if one of his 3 pitches is weak, you got yourself a relief pitcher in an ace's clothing.

LoL, turn off storylines... go "unretire" that guy with comissioner mode on

04-20-2018, 08:00 AM	#1
tedstriker Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 75	Trade two 3.5 star SP prospects for one 5 star SP prospect? I haven't advanced in my game for almost a week because I can't decide about a trade. Specifically, I have a trade opportunity to get an amazing 5 star SP prospect, but I would have to give up two 3.5 star SP prospects. Basically, is one potential Cy Young winner worth twice as much as two above average, possibly even all-star pitchers? My main concern is that with two prospects, I have a better chance of having at least one of them develop. I would hate to make the trade and end up having the 5 star prospect never develop. The 5-star SP is also only 20. The two 3.5 stars are 22 and 23. One of them has started to show a little development and has a actual rating of 1.5 stars, but the other is still at 0.5 stars. Any advice would be appreciated.

04-20-2018, 11:56 AM	#9
Timofmars Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 251	I would probably trade. I can get plenty of average potential talent pretty easily. But top talent is rare and very hard to pry away. Those are the special players at the end of the bell curve that dominate the game and can give WAR greater than multiple average players. So I'd have no problem taking a chance on a player like that. Of course, I would look at how far along each prospect is and consider the likelyhood that they would be able to make the progress needed before they become too old and development stops. The AI team is probably most interested in your prospect that is already capable of playing in the ML, and they probably can use him in the rotation right now. Also, try looking at it the other way around. I'd bet you and probably many others posting here would never give away your 5 star pitching prospect for a pair of 3.5 star prospects. I know I wouldn't, so that why I'd make the trade. I think that falls under the pyschological fallacy of loss aversion. Last edited by Timofmars; 04-20-2018 at 11:58 AM.

04-22-2018, 06:44 PM	#13
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	i'll take a cy young type guy over 2 #3-4ish in rotation SP. depends on the players of course. i.e. not all 5 star guys are actually great as far as their results. the depth you have at SP is important, too. are you a playoff team now or soon? etc etc... many factors to consider. i prefer to take a long-term view on things. i prefer an elite player over above average. elite in ratings as well as stats = way more consistent, and can dominate and/or compete with playoff caliber competition etc. sometimes these preferences conflict and i let the context dictate which is more important at that time. age isn't a concern if you trade before they take any ratings hits from decrapitation, but if it's a ~1-2 year rental, that severely diminishes the return. @ 20, you have to worry about accuracy of scouting... if he's got 2-3 years of pro ball under his belt, it's probably accurate... if he's in his 1st year, that's a different story at that age. at 20, if one of his 3 pitches is weak, you got yourself a relief pitcher in an ace's clothing. LoL, turn off storylines... go "unretire" that guy with comissioner mode on Last edited by NoOne; 04-22-2018 at 06:47 PM.

04-20-2018, 08:38 AM	#2
Silfir Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 137	There's always a reason that the AI wants a trade. It's likely the AI scouting director evaluates the players differently. If the 5-star guy is only 4 stars or less in their eyes, and they can get two very similarly talented prospects for him, it'd be a no-brainer. Never trust overall ratings alone. Look at the 5-star guy more closely; how many pitches does he have? Do they show signs of development? Is his Stamina well above the mark required for starting, or is there a risk of him dipping into relief pitcher range? Check your own guys and keep their values in mind as well. For example, an "SP" pitching prospect that has two main pitches and a changeup stuck at the minimum value, but with a massive potential, has high odds of never realizing that potential and being stuck as a reliever. Generally speaking, the farther away the current ratings are from the potential, the more speculative and less reliable is your scout's estimation. I'd need complete information (screenshots of the player profiles) to be certain, but from what you've told me I'd keep the two prospects.

04-20-2018, 09:10 AM	#3
Shoeless' Socks Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 164	I'd keep the two guys.

04-20-2018, 10:22 AM	#4
Critical Mass Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 273	Did the computer offer the trade to you? If so I wouldn't do it because like the above poster said, the computer probably has a very good reason for making you the offer. the other thing I would have to look at it as the rest of your pitching staff. If you already have a staff that you're happy with and only need one more piece, go for it. if you have a weak pitching staff and are really not trying to make a run for the World Series this year, keep the prospects.

04-20-2018, 10:26 AM	#5
tedstriker Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 75	I'll post pictures of all the players later, but from what I can recall the 5 star prospect has no apparent weaknesses. His stamina was 80, his stuff potential was 80. Control and movement potential was 60-70 IIRC. He had solid potential for 4 pitches, so little risk of ending up as a reliever. His character was described as hard working, which I believe increases the chances of developing. IIRC, the 3.5 pitchers had potential between 50-65 for everything. They were significantly more developed though, with actual ratings around 40 for everything, whereas the 5 star prospect was still in the 25-35 range for actual ratings. Could this mean that the AI knows the 5 star prospect isn't going to develop? Isn't that determined somewhat randomly?

04-20-2018, 10:31 AM	#6
tedstriker Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 75	The computer did not offer the trade. I always try to obtain some prospects around the deadline, and for some reason this team was willing to give up the top pitching prospect in the league. My team is in first place, but the starting staff is ranked in the low 20s (in an fictional MLB structure). I'm pretty much in rebuilding mode, which makes me kind of prefer the two ok prospects, but the 5 star prospect just looks ridiculous.

04-20-2018, 10:32 AM	#7
tedstriker Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 75	I should also point out that I have a number of 2.5 and 3 star SP prospects already, so it isn't like this would completely drain my minor league system.

04-22-2018, 04:10 PM	#11
tedstriker Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 75	Well, I pulled the trigger on the trade. You will never believe what happened. At the end of the season, the 20-year 5 star prospect I traded for decided to retire. Seriously? Has anyone ever seen a 20-year prospect retire? He was literally the top rated prospect in the league.

04-22-2018, 05:50 PM	#12
Critical Mass Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 273	I once had a top prospect get a career-ending injury in his rookie year, but that's it.