max 6pitch counts ?

Marsupilami · 12-26-2017, 01:24 PM

so, i am playing a game again and have a runner at first that is a natural basestealer. during the at bat it kinda dawned on me that i have never seen a prolonged at bat.

when im trying to steal its always either:
A: stealattempt
B: ball put in play

when it reaches the count of 3balls 2strikes, it never ever gets fouled off to have more than 6 pitches during the at bat.

is that just my imagination or is it true?

NoOne · 12-26-2017, 03:53 PM

i don't play out games much anymore, but i have definitely seen more than 6 pitches thrown in an AB.

think of an ab as a long possible string of various multiplication of % probabilities of various things occuring given all contextual inputs.. each player has different ranges of a 'successful' roll (rand seed). the better the player the wider range of values equate to success.

so, nothing will specifically happen at 4pitches or 6pitches etc. i do believe they 'roll' the player's random seed 1 time per ab, however. so if it gets a crappy roll to start, they are basically snake-bit that AB.

e.g. let's say it's a 1-100 integer value. the player steps up, and a "1" is generated. that "1" is used in each successive choice for that AB, or it is heavily influenced by it.

you can see this if you repeat an Ab by killing the process. it doesn't generate new random seeds when you load up a saved game -- whether on purpose or not, it's what the code obviously does through observation.

that doesn't mean it's hardcoded... it's just not resolved down beyond an AB much. other results are possible but it becomes a 1/100 chance, and errors are seemingly a mutually exclusive applied force. so, there's some other layer of randomness that allows for slightly different resutls, but if you roll a "1" you have an out or an error nearly every time, regardless of # of pitches thrown.

this is also why "take a pitch" strategy works, so well. in the big picture, it doesn't matter if it's 3-0 or 0-2 count when you decide to swing. the % success/failur is roughly the same at any point of the AB. this strategy wouldn't work well, otherwise. they have tried to combat this in recent years, but even so, it still works exceptionally well.

just speculating: there must be some reason it's simplified... maybe it just doesn't work well re-generated for each pitch?

Marsupilami · 12-26-2017, 04:05 PM

i did not say that there are no 7+pitch at bats at all.
only that i cant recall ever seeing one when i am trying to steal a base

NoOne · 12-27-2017, 07:40 PM

well, i'd chalk that up to increased risks and the mechanics of what's happening?

more to have a favorable pitcher's count? but, if it somehow efefcts max number of pitches i will never buy this game again, lol... it would be a total lump of %#$.

so, if oyu do find out, don't tell me

12-26-2017, 01:24 PM	#1
Marsupilami Major Leagues Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 328	max 6pitch counts ? so, i am playing a game again and have a runner at first that is a natural basestealer. during the at bat it kinda dawned on me that i have never seen a prolonged at bat. when im trying to steal its always either: A: stealattempt B: ball put in play when it reaches the count of 3balls 2strikes, it never ever gets fouled off to have more than 6 pitches during the at bat. is that just my imagination or is it true? __________________ ABL 2020 - Brewers

12-26-2017, 03:53 PM	#2
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 1/2 (4)	i don't play out games much anymore, but i have definitely seen more than 6 pitches thrown in an AB. think of an ab as a long possible string of various multiplication of % probabilities of various things occuring given all contextual inputs.. each player has different ranges of a 'successful' roll (rand seed). the better the player the wider range of values equate to success. so, nothing will specifically happen at 4pitches or 6pitches etc. i do believe they 'roll' the player's random seed 1 time per ab, however. so if it gets a crappy roll to start, they are basically snake-bit that AB. e.g. let's say it's a 1-100 integer value. the player steps up, and a "1" is generated. that "1" is used in each successive choice for that AB, or it is heavily influenced by it. you can see this if you repeat an Ab by killing the process. it doesn't generate new random seeds when you load up a saved game -- whether on purpose or not, it's what the code obviously does through observation. that doesn't mean it's hardcoded... it's just not resolved down beyond an AB much. other results are possible but it becomes a 1/100 chance, and errors are seemingly a mutually exclusive applied force. so, there's some other layer of randomness that allows for slightly different resutls, but if you roll a "1" you have an out or an error nearly every time, regardless of # of pitches thrown. this is also why "take a pitch" strategy works, so well. in the big picture, it doesn't matter if it's 3-0 or 0-2 count when you decide to swing. the % success/failur is roughly the same at any point of the AB. this strategy wouldn't work well, otherwise. they have tried to combat this in recent years, but even so, it still works exceptionally well. just speculating: there must be some reason it's simplified... maybe it just doesn't work well re-generated for each pitch? Last edited by NoOne; 12-26-2017 at 04:00 PM.

12-26-2017, 04:05 PM	#3
Marsupilami Major Leagues Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 328	i did not say that there are no 7+pitch at bats at all. only that i cant recall ever seeing one when i am trying to steal a base __________________ ABL 2020 - Brewers

12-27-2017, 07:40 PM	#4
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 1/2 (4)	well, i'd chalk that up to increased risks and the mechanics of what's happening? more to have a favorable pitcher's count? but, if it somehow efefcts max number of pitches i will never buy this game again, lol... it would be a total lump of %#$. so, if oyu do find out, don't tell me