How do I stop this from occurring?

[MKG1734]

Merry Christmas

Last night I simmed 100 seasons in a league of 10 teams with a system-generated feeder league. Financials, morale, etc. all turned off. All settings are out-of-box and league evolution is turned off ... and yet, as you can see, the league gradually had much worse pitching and much better offense which stabilized around the year 15 mark. What do I need to do to ensure the league essentially remains unchanged from the starting year?

[NoOne]

initial players are different than yearly generated players for a draft or for feeders.

best guess 5.60-6.20 is likely ERA range and won't change much anymore. this is based on years after the bulk of initial seed players would have retired.

very likely due to what you have said, this is just the point it settled into. it probably won't continue to go up... it'll fluctuate around some point near it's present levels.

what levels do you want? now is the perfect time to start adjusting for this stuff. if you like your league totals, simply auto-calculate league total modifiers on the stats and AI page -- opening day before any game is played, is my suggestion for any league.

in that situation the only thing i'd suggest after auto-calc is to make sure you didn't callibrate it at teh low or high-end of player quality... totally depends on what is currently in the league when you clicked.. e.g. if you have a historically strong league, home runs will only go down after auto-calc. (historically weak and it can only go up after auto-calculating totals, etc) i'm assuming you're assuming ~average when you click, but it may not be due to current talent in league.

if you don't want it to be ~around your league totals, i'd still click it 1 time then simulate and adjust individual modifiers for the final tweaks to get what you want. e.g. you want 5% more hr than the league total value is, you add 5% to the resulting LTM for HR anytime you click auto-calculate modifiers button.

you should see ~10% swing for most things, but some less, some more. anytime it falls within that range of the total or your goal, it's possibly okay... time will tell if it sways too far up/down than your target average should allow. if it does, you know you need to make an adjustment. or, you use long-term simulation, which i doubt you are interested in it would require 2-3 of those to get it done

once you find a happy zone, it will stay nearby unless you change how many players are create per year or # of teams or disrupt anything to do with # of players / development / mil system etc etc. a minor change may not require any adjustments, but this will change the factors, therefor the resutls will be different... ie new set of LTM needed. OR that is part of what you are simulating... and you want the league basline to change without knowing for sure what will happen etc plenty of possible reasons for that goal too.

[MKG1734]

Thank you for the reply.
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When I started the sim, I used the out of the box settings, which were to mimic 2017 MLB.
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Obviously the original batch of players were constructed properly; however, the ensuing players created became worse in terms of suppressing offense.
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So, if the original settings created an ideal statistical environment, why does this change happen when the settings are the same is my first question? Shouldn't it just continue to create the same type of players?
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If not, are you saying I have to click auto-calc every season and that will solve the issue and will maintain the initial settings?
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I suppose I don't understand how the original settings produced a proper environment, then the settings were not changed but then the environment changed anyway?

[sprague]

You need to hit recalc before each season to make sure the league totals you want will be created by the current level of talent in your league.
Recalc will keep your league stable

[MKG1734]

I will try that now starting from year 1 and report back one way or another.
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Thank you both for the advice.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by sprague

You need to hit recalc before each season to make sure the league totals you want will be created by the current level of talent in your league.
Recalc will keep your league stable

Don't you mean auto-calc in Stats & AI > League Totals?

[NoOne]

yeah, stats and AI

you don't want to do it 'every' year. i'd save that screen shot for future reference. it shows the rate of change over time until it reaches a new ~average about ~20-25 years later (when all initial players ahve retired).

based on that screenshot i'd:

1st year is always a good idea. then every 3rd or 4th year. After ~25 years, i'd make minor tweaks to the LTMs, without any knee-jerk reactions.

if you click it each year, the intended volatility of year-to-year stats is hindered. it's much more accurate than in year's past, which makes this even more important to consider when clicking. simply put, yearly talent levels should ebb and flow a bit, clicking this will level that effect out considerably.

tweak after ~25 if you see hr hit a peak or a valley you deem unwanted. after auto-calcing the last time, it cannot be very far from a "good" value. it will not stray too far, but you may want it a few ticks higher/lower than what it is.

once those seed players are gone, you can expect consistency with a fair amount of volatility, but it will stay ~near an average... most things withing +/- 10%, but not all.