Do you think this is a fair/balanced trade? - Page 2

Lukas Berger · 12-22-2017, 09:29 AM

I think a lot of the folks commenting are definitely undervaluing Herrera and especially his CF defense.

When you add his playing a more premium position much better than Yelich does into the equation, I think you can easily argue that he's a solid 4/5ths of the player Yelich is.

That would just be in theory, and would apply both in-game and in real life as well.

Then if Herrera's actually outperforming Yelich in-game, and he's cheaper as well?

It's debatable and I'm not saying it's the be all and end all opinion, but especially if money was any sort of a factor for me (and when isn't it?) I'd probably seriously consider trading Yelich for Herrera straight up.

To then add in a couple of solid, cheap and fairly young MLB players in Hernandez and Joseph as well as a solid prospect like Williams who's MLB ready for a pretty generic RP?

I'd take that deal as Miami any day.

There are good arguments to be made that the Phillies got the better of the deal as well, since Yelich has a more established track record, but I won't make them since you guys are pretty much doing that yourselves

You could maybe argue they could've gotten a slightly better return for Yelich elsewhere, but I really think this is just about the definition of a fair trade.

ThePretender · 12-22-2017, 09:47 AM

I don't think Yelich for Herrera straight up is fair though. Yeah, Herrera plays CF, but look at those ratings - 40/45 contact, 45/50 avoid K, 45/50 eye, 35/40 HR, 60/60 gap....

That offence that Herrerra has shown isn't sustainable. A guy with those ratings shouldn't be a league average bat. And a plus CF with a below average bat is a useful player, but more in the 2-2.5 WAR range per 150 games. With that kind of bat/glove, Yelich is more like a 4-5 WAR player. I'd be safer saying Herrera is closer to half the player Yelich is, as opposed to 4/5 the player he is.

Lukas Berger · 12-22-2017, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThePretender

I don't think Yelich for Herrera straight up is fair though. Yeah, Herrera plays CF, but look at those ratings - 40/45 contact, 45/50 avoid K, 45/50 eye, 35/40 HR, 60/60 gap....

That offence that Herrerra has shown isn't sustainable. A guy with those ratings shouldn't be a league average bat. And a plus CF with a below average bat is a useful player, but more in the 2-2.5 WAR range per 150 games. With that kind of bat/glove, Yelich is more like a 4-5 WAR player. I'd be safer saying Herrera is closer to half the player Yelich is, as opposed to 4/5 the player he is.

That's a reasonable enough assessment for sure.

I think the offense for Herrera is probably a bit more sustainable than you do, and I think you're overrating Yelich a little since I'd see him as more of a 3-4 WAR guy than a 4-5 WAR guy.

But even with your assessment, if he's even half the player, he makes half the money and has one year more of team control left than Yelich does.

When you then factor in the other guys as I mentioned, even if Herrera's half the player Yelich is, I still think it's a pretty balanced deal.

But that gets down to why I think this is pretty much the definition of a fair trade. You can make a pretty logical argument for either side of the deal and it's really just a matter of personal opinion as to which factors you weigh more heavily.

It's a matter of how much you value things like saving money, better defense as opposed to better offense, how much value a couple of youngish and cheapish average MLB players like Joseph and Hernandez have and what you think of Williams as a prospect.

So to put it another way, if I'm the Yankees or Dodgers, I'd rather take the Yelich side of the deal. If I'm the Marlins or A's, I'd rather take the Herrera side. That's pretty balanced!

Marsupilami · 12-22-2017, 10:09 AM

Herrera is not such a great defender in cf. yes, he has 65 range which is the minimu i would want for a cf. but 50 error and marginal better arm in cf dont excite me at all

and with a 35 powerrating, to hit 18 HR in a season is not substainable

Lukas Berger · 12-22-2017, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marsupilami

Herrera is not such a great defender in cf. yes, he has 65 range which is the minimu i would want for a cf. but 50 error and marginal better arm in cf dont excite me at all

and with a 35 powerrating, to hit 18 HR in a season is not substainable

No, he's not an elite CF defender, but he's more than playable there. Yelich doesn't really provide any defensive value at all. He's good in Lf, but it's not at all hard to get a good LF defender in game.

On the HR's, guys do outperform their ratings and will even sustain that over long periods of time in game. It's not at all unusual for it to happen.

And he doesn't have to hit 18 HR's ever again to provide enough value, especially with the Marlins getting by far the better part of the rest of the deal.

Lukas Berger · 12-22-2017, 10:20 AM

Which is not to say you're wrong.

All things being equal, I'd probably take the Yelich side of the deal too, but it's close and all things aren't equal. Money plays a big factor, especially for a team like the Marlins.

progen · 12-22-2017, 10:32 AM

As a Phillies fan, you can absolutely have "knucklehead" Herrera. He made some of the dumbest plays last season, and was benched several times for it. The classic was when he ran through third base coach Juan Samuel's stop sign at third, and ran behind him.

I think Williams has potential in real life, so I'd be inclined to keep him around. And I like Hernandez too.

But I've always liked Yelich. Not sure what the game has these players rated, but I'd say just from the stats(and I always play stats only), I'd say Miami is getting the better deal, and if I was the Phillies GM, would never make this trade.

12-22-2017, 09:29 AM	#21
Lukas Berger OOTP Developments Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Nice, Côte d'Azur, France Posts: 21,350	I think a lot of the folks commenting are definitely undervaluing Herrera and especially his CF defense. When you add his playing a more premium position much better than Yelich does into the equation, I think you can easily argue that he's a solid 4/5ths of the player Yelich is. That would just be in theory, and would apply both in-game and in real life as well. Then if Herrera's actually outperforming Yelich in-game, and he's cheaper as well? It's debatable and I'm not saying it's the be all and end all opinion, but especially if money was any sort of a factor for me (and when isn't it?) I'd probably seriously consider trading Yelich for Herrera straight up. To then add in a couple of solid, cheap and fairly young MLB players in Hernandez and Joseph as well as a solid prospect like Williams who's MLB ready for a pretty generic RP? I'd take that deal as Miami any day. There are good arguments to be made that the Phillies got the better of the deal as well, since Yelich has a more established track record, but I won't make them since you guys are pretty much doing that yourselves You could maybe argue they could've gotten a slightly better return for Yelich elsewhere, but I really think this is just about the definition of a fair trade. __________________ lukas@ootpdevelopments.com PreOrder Out of the Park Baseball 26! Need to upload files for us to check out? Instructions can be found here

12-22-2017, 10:09 AM	#24
Marsupilami Major Leagues Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 328	Herrera is not such a great defender in cf. yes, he has 65 range which is the minimu i would want for a cf. but 50 error and marginal better arm in cf dont excite me at all and with a 35 powerrating, to hit 18 HR in a season is not substainable __________________ ABL 2020 - Brewers

12-22-2017, 10:20 AM	#26
Lukas Berger OOTP Developments Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Nice, Côte d'Azur, France Posts: 21,350	Which is not to say you're wrong. All things being equal, I'd probably take the Yelich side of the deal too, but it's close and all things aren't equal. Money plays a big factor, especially for a team like the Marlins. __________________ lukas@ootpdevelopments.com PreOrder Out of the Park Baseball 26! Need to upload files for us to check out? Instructions can be found here

12-22-2017, 09:47 AM	#22
ThePretender All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,321	I don't think Yelich for Herrera straight up is fair though. Yeah, Herrera plays CF, but look at those ratings - 40/45 contact, 45/50 avoid K, 45/50 eye, 35/40 HR, 60/60 gap.... That offence that Herrerra has shown isn't sustainable. A guy with those ratings shouldn't be a league average bat. And a plus CF with a below average bat is a useful player, but more in the 2-2.5 WAR range per 150 games. With that kind of bat/glove, Yelich is more like a 4-5 WAR player. I'd be safer saying Herrera is closer to half the player Yelich is, as opposed to 4/5 the player he is.

12-22-2017, 10:32 AM	#27
progen All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 1,530 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	As a Phillies fan, you can absolutely have "knucklehead" Herrera. He made some of the dumbest plays last season, and was benched several times for it. The classic was when he ran through third base coach Juan Samuel's stop sign at third, and ran behind him. I think Williams has potential in real life, so I'd be inclined to keep him around. And I like Hernandez too. But I've always liked Yelich. Not sure what the game has these players rated, but I'd say just from the stats(and I always play stats only), I'd say Miami is getting the better deal, and if I was the Phillies GM, would never make this trade.