Would You Draft Bickle With The 3rd Overall Pick?

[The Game]

I need a 2B of the future. Love this guy except for his arm. he's probably a future 1B/DH. Would you draft him 3rd overall or look elsewhere?

[bwburke94]

His arm is a major concern. Just look at what happened to Chuck Knoblauch and Steve Sax.

[TGH-Adfabre]

1) He is almost 24, by the start of next ST he will be 24. I usually consider OOTP players done developing at 25. I would be concerned about 18 month to develop into an ML player.
2) Who else is on the board?
3) I do not know what a 7 CON/POT is in your league. If there are few prospects with a 7+ POT and CON the I would definitely grab him. I always factor CON in drafting, especially in the 2nd and later rounds.

[Mike Donlin]

Look elsewhere.

As the poster above pointed out, he will be 24, which is old for a prospect, and his makeup doesn't inspire confidence.

[Gator]

Too old!

[Déjà Bru]

Yes, I would draft him. I would then impose a mandatory nickname change to "Belt" or "Dill."

[NoOne]

i agree that a 24yo who's been in your mil system since 18 that stalls out, is most likely done developing.

however, i wouldn't hesitate on a college kid in the draft. you can likely pop him into A/AA then likely AAA by end of year if he does well / improves his ratings over the year. age as well as service time is the influence here... since he has zero service time, you'll be okay. probably more likely he develops, since he's "1/2 plus" developed on day one.

i've seen these types of players be ready by July to at least be a decent mlb player, if not fully developed (power lags often). i always keep a close on on older draftees that are A-ball or better current ability (almost always go hand in hand with age, ~22ish+)... they won't take long.

the biggest thing to him being a bust is whether your scout was accurate about his power... it's one of the least accurate things in the draft, if not the most inaccurate batting rating. this guy loses 10-20% of that potential power and all of a sudden he's about a "3" star potential instead of 4.5. contact will drop a few ticks, and a singles machine that can't hit more than ~15hr is a leadoff / bottom of order player.

a bad arm as 2nd is no problem... if his 2b position "disappears" from his profile, that's when i'd worry. he's 6' and can play 1b or DH -- always a place for a power bat. can continue to look for a better 2b until that time.

position and offense are 2 mutually exclusive things. 8 batters that can fill 8 position in the field -- doesn't matter who plays where in any way. all that matters is that you find the best 8 that can fill both well. ie don't look for a "type" of hitter at any position... let what is available dictate.

i've had a speed demon 1b with ~0 power for all intents and purposes... still scored same # of runs i expected to score. more likely this won't be the case, but don't avoid it just because it's not "normal" -- be creative and make it work. better off in long-run. definitely requires a bit more planning and may need a slugger in a non-tradistional slugger position. so many ways to balance it and make it work. "normal" is for double digit IQs to worry about.

[ThePretender]

If he was younger, maybe, but he's unlikely to develop. Depends on what else is available in the draft but I would look for other possibilities. He should be a good hitter at 2B, possibly even 1B depending on your league, but I wouldn't bet on him filling out.

[The Game]

Thanx for the responses. I am very deep in OF and RP in my minors. i have the 2nd best overall minor league system. I have a few potential OF that will come up this season or next. i am weak in middle IF and C in the minors.

[ThePretender]

Don't ever draft based on needs or strength of your system. Draft BPA.

And stars don't tell us anything. I have 5 star guys I wouldn't put in AA and 1 star guys who consistently give me 3 WAR a season.

[Charley575]

Not a fan. Sounds like a low Intelligence guy, which I avoid like the plague. That, combined with his age, makes me hesitate. Also, I don't like him because with that arm he could only ever be a 2B. I like guys I can play anywhere, because I can never be sure what my needs will be by the time they develop.

[NoOne]

if he's a true 80/100 power guy, you'll regret not having him.

~8/10 contact with 8+/10 power are the sure-fire HoF guys with health. even if logjam at OF, if it turns out you have such a good team you don't have room for a 8/10 power guy, then you will almost assuredly get a top-5 type qualtiy guy in return of any trade.

maybe toss in a few ~30-40 overall guys for that team's need, if oyu need to pile on.

for me to look elsewhere, would require similar batting ability (mainly con/power) and if a SP, he better be 200-win type guy. (hof-type).

intelligence and work ethic definitely are a factor, but i look at talent in tiers... within a tier i will allow intelligence to push the needle one way or another, but never between tiers of quality.

i.e. they better be close in talent for that to be the tie-breaker. because, 120power vs 160 power (/200) is 50x more of a factor to success than a bad attitude vs a good one.

[The Game]

Bickle went #1 overall to Kansas City Huskers.
I drafted Kim based on scouts recommendation. He was one of 3 players i was looking at for the 3rd pick.

[ThePretender]

Not a huge fan of your pick, sorry. Low movement means he'll get destroyed . Doubt the change up develops much so he probably won't fill out his stuff either. And without max stuff he's pretty useless, since the control is not particularly good and the movement as mentioned is brutal. I'd use him as trade bait, since the AI obviously likes him. I think he'd be a sub replacement level player, which is assuming he even fills out.

I'd fire the scout that suggested him, to be honest. Or simply wouldn't rely on his recommendations going forward.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

Not a huge fan of your pick, sorry. Low movement means he'll get destroyed . Doubt the change up develops much so he probably won't fill out his stuff either. And without max stuff he's pretty useless, since the control is not particularly good and the movement as mentioned is brutal. I'd use him as trade bait, since the AI obviously likes him. I think he'd be a sub replacement level player, which is assuming he even fills out.

I'd fire the scout that suggested him, to be honest. Or simply wouldn't rely on his recommendations going forward.

As it turns out doubt ful i will be able to sign him. This just seemed like a weak draft.

[Sharkn20]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

Not a huge fan of your pick, sorry. Low movement means he'll get destroyed . Doubt the change up develops much so he probably won't fill out his stuff either. And without max stuff he's pretty useless, since the control is not particularly good and the movement as mentioned is brutal. I'd use him as trade bait, since the AI obviously likes him. I think he'd be a sub replacement level player, which is assuming he even fills out.

I'd fire the scout that suggested him, to be honest. Or simply wouldn't rely on his recommendations going forward.

+1

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[Danius]

Originally Posted by Gator

Too old!

So basically anyone who got a college degree is too old? Aaron Judge was basically 25 at the beginning of this season (so in your view, he shouldn't have been given a chance?). Bradley Zimmer will be 25 in three weeks. Are those guys too old? While they have made it to the majors, and had some success, they aren't the finished product. Guys that care about their educations get a later start. That doesn't mean they won't be just as good as players who don't go to college.

[TGH-Adfabre]

Originally Posted by Danius

So basically anyone who got a college degree is too old? Aaron Judge was basically 25 at the beginning of this season (so in your view, he shouldn't have been given a chance?). Bradley Zimmer will be 25 in three weeks. Are those guys too old? While they have made it to the majors, and had some success, they aren't the finished product. Guys that care about their educations get a later start. That doesn't mean they won't be just as good as players who don't go to college.

If they have been in college from 18-25 years old they need a PHD or a drool cup. Those players would be partially developed in an OOTP situation.
I know my post was not as blunt as the one you are responding to. I, anecdotally, have seen that OOTP players tend to stop developing around 25. I think the odds of an OOTP player continuing to develop at age 25+ is far less likely than a younger player. This is my small sample size experience with player development.
The model for Judge is random talent boosts more than development to POT. I have not heard of anyone who predicted that rookie season from him. We will see over the years if he is the player he seemed to be before the AS break.

[ThePretender]

Originally Posted by The Game

As it turns out doubt ful i will be able to sign him. This just seemed like a weak draft.

It may be a weak draft but I find it hard to believe he's the best pitcher. Even a 6-7-7 kind of pitcher would be more successful. Probably even 6-7-6 to be honest. Or a hitter that has limited power, but good contact/avoid K and either eye/gap with some defence.

If you don't sign him, you get the pick next year, right? I'd probably take that option, then.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

It may be a weak draft but I find it hard to believe he's the best pitcher. Even a 6-7-7 kind of pitcher would be more successful. Probably even 6-7-6 to be honest. Or a hitter that has limited power, but good contact/avoid K and either eye/gap with some defence.

If you don't sign him, you get the pick next year, right? I'd probably take that option, then.

i scouted 12 SP 10 hitters, Except for teh Impossible to sign guys. Kim was the best overall SP.