7 throws in a row to 1B

[Zimmer]

I'm new to the game so likely this has been discussed many times in past years ...

I pressed "4" to steal 2B and the pitcher threw to 1B seven times in a row. Surely this is something easy to fix on the programming side as it is not realistic. Three outcomes (hopefully based on real life %ages with some random % up or down thrown in and hopefully trends incorporated) ... pickoff, steals 2B or is thrown out attempting to steal 2B.

Why wouldn't this have been fixed over the years? I have OOTP 18. Thx

[Sweed]

This happened with "send forced" selected? If so, then yeah I would call it an issue as the runner should have gone no matter what. If it only happens on the "normal" steal selection I don't see a problem as you are free to use the "send forced" option at any time.

As for real life.. who's to say it couldn't happen? A quick google for consecutive PO attempts and I found someone saying this ....

Okay so pickoff data wasn't recorded until 1954, so it's not as extensive as other stats. It's a bit hard to find attempts on a single baserunner/in a single plate appearance or at bat. It also looks like pickoff attempts aren't really recorded.
The only thing I can find so far is Bruce Chen making 10 pickoff attempts in one at-bat. That's just a quick look, though.

Video of Chem vs Span https://www.mlb.com/video/chens-10-p...59?tid=8879838

At one point he throws over 5 consecutive times on a 1-2 count. Maybe with the video only showing POs there could have been a foul ball? If the quote I posted is correct and PO Att aren't tracked who knows for sure unless you see unedited video?

[RchW]

There is nothing to fix here.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Back when Tim Raines was on the Expos the scoreboard at Olympic Stadium would use chickens track how many times the pitcher threw over to first when he was on. I can't remember who it was, but just remember they were running out of room for chickens on the board because the pitcher threw over so many times.

[Airdrop01]

One of the kids I coached in high school had as his personal claim to fame stealing 2nd and 3rd in a game after the pitcher threw over 11 times in row to first. It was raining and I've never seen a uniform so dirty in my life.

[r0nster]

I have seen in real life where a pitcher threw to first 15 times in a single At Bat and at least 7 times were in a row. It was when Granderson was with the Tigers and opponents feared his speed. The fans booed like crazy everytime the pitcher threw to first.


I agree this does NOT happen often but there are other things in real life that doesn't happen often would occasionally sneak in here when life imitates art.

[Michael Xavier]

Albeit, it is gaming the system, but I will hold down the throw to first key for 10 minutes if I have a slow runner on first.

[Izz]

Originally Posted by Zimmer

I pressed "4" to steal 2B

Further to Sweed's explanation: if you just choose 'Steal' then the runner has the option not to steal if he feels he hasn't got a good enough jump, etc. If you want the runner to go no matter what, you need to choose 'Send forced.'

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Izz

Further to Sweed's explanation: if you just choose 'Steal' then the runner has the option not to steal if he feels he hasn't got a good enough jump, etc. If you want the runner to go no matter what, you need to choose 'Send forced.'

And/or one of run and hit or hit and run. In modern baseball the singular straight steal is very rare.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by RchW

And/or one of run and hit or hit and run. In modern baseball the singular straight steal is very rare.

True. The one that sticks out in my mind might be Dave Roberts in the bottom of the 9th of game 4 of the 2004 ALCS. Typically though if a base runner has the "green light" that just means he has the ok to run if he wants to.

[Izz]

Originally Posted by RchW

And/or one of run and hit or hit and run. In modern baseball the singular straight steal is very rare.

Ah yep, thanks. Funny i should forget those as my method of choice is almost always run and hit.

[Zimmer]

Originally Posted by Sweed

This happened with "send forced" selected?

Sweed, I clearly stated "when I pressed 4", not 8.

Look everyone, I am new and want to be friends and stay friends ... however, I am surprised at all your responses.

Yes, there are outliers when once upon a time, a pitcher threw over to first a gazillion times And yes, "8" send forced is an option.

However, I assume "8" is going to have a slightly smaller chance of success than "4" where I assume the odds are higher when (and if" the runner takes off) since I assume the programmers have the runner "reading" the pitcher and takes off when he feels like he will get a good jump. Otherwise, there would not be both a "4" and an "8" as part of the game, just "8" only.

Of the ten responses, none of you answered my question or commented on my comment if you will in the context of realistic game play ... the coding seems exaggerated. The "NORMAL" or "AVERAGE" number of throws to first base in a row is far, far fewer than 7 in real life.

You all mean well, and again I want to stay friends, but none of you seem to be able to agree that ... EXCLUDING OUTLERS ... the coding has an excessive number of throws to first base. In real life, the runner is pushed closer to first or the pitcher just says the hell with it.

By the way, everyone ... all MLB people and execs are trying to figure out future changes to baseball to speed up the game I doubt a ton of throws to first bases in a row will be allowed in the future at some point.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Zimmer

Sweed, I clearly stated "when I pressed 4", not 8.

Look everyone, I am new and want to be friends and stay friends ... however, I am surprised at all your responses.

Yes, there are outliers when once upon a time, a pitcher threw over to first a gazillion times And yes, "8" send forced is an option.

However, I assume "8" is going to have a slightly smaller chance of success than "4" where I assume the odds are higher when (and if" the runner takes off) since I assume the programmers have the runner "reading" the pitcher and takes off when he feels like he will get a good jump. Otherwise, there would not be both a "4" and an "8" as part of the game, just "8" only.

Of the ten responses, none of you answered my question or commented on my comment if you will in the context of realistic game play ... the coding seems exaggerated. The "NORMAL" or "AVERAGE" number of throws to first base in a row is far, far fewer than 7 in real life.

You all mean well, and again I want to stay friends, but none of you seem to be able to agree that ... EXCLUDING OUTLERS ... the coding has an excessive number of throws to first base. In real life, the runner is pushed closer to first or the pitcher just says the hell with it.

By the way, everyone ... all MLB people and execs are trying to figure out future changes to baseball to speed up the game I doubt a ton of throws to first bases in a row will be allowed in the future at some point.

I've played out several thousand games. Not as many as some because I mostly sim. I can say from my pov the game does not have an excessive number of throws to 1B. If I were to take a definitive position I'd say there are not enough throws to 1B. I could have posted the opposite observation of what you did with 100 examples of not enough throws. Not just one example.

One can never assume that observations made in a single experience ie game played, saved game or particular season in a long term save ever apply to others.

When they do apply it is seen as a bug because tester and forum response shows it repetitively.

[BaseballMan]

Must be the "Triple Play 99" mode.

[David Watts]

After several throws by the pitcher to 1b, wouldn't the #4 option result in "failed to get a good jump" more often than not? I would think in that case, #8 send forced might be the only way to get the runner to attempt steal. As the OP said, the pitcher would probably quit throwing to 1B, because after 1 or 2 or 3 throws, the runner would have reduced his lead enough to not requires throws over. But, the other side of this is, in real life the runner would be a lot less likely to attempt the steal due to his lead being cut in half. So continuing to hit #4 isn't exactly realistic either. Sometimes, I think we have to remember this is a computer sim. This to me is very similar to playing in pitch by pitch mode so you can hit take pitch(known exploit) over and over to tire the opposing pitcher.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Zimmer

I'm new to the game so likely this has been discussed many times in past years ...

I pressed "4" to steal 2B and the pitcher threw to 1B seven times in a row. Surely this is something easy to fix on the programming side as it is not realistic. Three outcomes (hopefully based on real life %ages with some random % up or down thrown in and hopefully trends incorporated) ... pickoff, steals 2B or is thrown out attempting to steal 2B.

Why wouldn't this have been fixed over the years? I have OOTP 18. Thx

Originally Posted by Zimmer

Sweed, I clearly stated "when I pressed 4", not 8.

Look everyone, I am new and want to be friends and stay friends ... however, I am surprised at all your responses.

Yes, there are outliers when once upon a time, a pitcher threw over to first a gazillion times And yes, "8" send forced is an option.

However, I assume "8" is going to have a slightly smaller chance of success than "4" where I assume the odds are higher when (and if" the runner takes off) since I assume the programmers have the runner "reading" the pitcher and takes off when he feels like he will get a good jump. Otherwise, there would not be both a "4" and an "8" as part of the game, just "8" only.

Of the ten responses, none of you answered my question or commented on my comment if you will in the context of realistic game play ... the coding seems exaggerated. The "NORMAL" or "AVERAGE" number of throws to first base in a row is far, far fewer than 7 in real life.

You all mean well, and again I want to stay friends, but none of you seem to be able to agree that ... EXCLUDING OUTLERS ... the coding has an excessive number of throws to first base. In real life, the runner is pushed closer to first or the pitcher just says the hell with it.

By the way, everyone ... all MLB people and execs are trying to figure out future changes to baseball to speed up the game I doubt a ton of throws to first bases in a row will be allowed in the future at some point.

I don't think anyone here is being unfriendly and hope you aren't taking any of the answers that way. Tone and inflection doesn't carry well in written responses on a message board.

What you will find here is a group of users that will always question sample size, and whether you have real data or is it just your perception?
If anyone, not just new users, comes is with a "I think this isn't realistic" expect questions on sample size and data. This is a good thing You will see that if you present data that proves a point Markus and Matt will actually use that to tweak\fix the game. It is one of the strengths of OOTP and why it has become the most realistic baseball simulation on the planet.

Reading your fist post you say you are new and already wonder

Why wouldn't this have been fixed over the years?

when, as far as I can tell, you are only posting about a one time thing... IE an outlier. The Span example alone proves there is nothing wrong with the game unless it happens at an unrealistic rate. But then you haven't said "it happens every game", "every time", or given any context on the situation at all.

It would be hard to agree with

EXCLUDING OUTLERS ... the coding has an excessive number of throws to first base.

when you have only given one example

Now to answer your question on whether there are too many throws over in OOTP? I would say a definite No! And would agree with RchW there probably aren't enough. What do I base that on?

I've played the same dynasty since v4(2002) and imported that game into each new version all the way to v18. I'm in my 32nd season of playing out every game for my team. I am nearing 5,000 games played out not including spring training and playoffs which would add another ~1,000 games.

Three outcomes (hopefully based on real life %ages with some random % up or down thrown in and hopefully trends incorporated) ... pickoff, steals 2B or is thrown out attempting to steal 2B

Back to Span... The video clearly shows there is a fourth outcome, yes? IE runner doesn't get picked off, doesn't steal, isn't thrown out trying, but rather stays put and only advances on a batted ball. With multiple throws over (think more like a "normal" three or four not your outlying seven) staying put is probably the most realistic outcome. Your guy staying put when you press #4 is realistic and OOTP gets it right IMHO.

Yes, #8 is the unrealistic option but was put in because users complained about their guys not being able to "get a jump". I only mentioned it first to be sure you hadn't tried it too and to make sure you knew the option was there.

With regard to MLB limiting throws over, not going to happen IMHO. Never mind that multiple throws are rare and would save how much time over a whole season of 2,430 games? It wouldn't knock 5 minutes off the time a game takes to play. Never mind if Billy Hamiltion gets on and they're going to limit the P to three (or pick whatever # you think a ton is) throws? After 3 how big a lead does he get? Half way? Three quarters? No reason not to they can't throw over. Or will they put a line in the sand and you can only lead off that far? lol Just a lot of people overthinking a problem(?) and coming up with a "solution" that has no effect

[Zeth]

It's maddening but realistic. Pitchers throw to first over and over and over and over in real life, too--sometimes to keep a fast runner close, but just as often they just lob it over to first because they get set and decide they don't feel perfectly ready to pitch.

20 years ago Bill James argued for a rule that a pitcher gets two freebies on throws to bases per inning, and after that if he throws to a base and doesn't pick the runner off, it's a ball for the batter. I agree with him. As maddening as the throws to first are in OOTP, they're ten times worse when you're actually trying to watch a baseball game.

edit: Here's the money quote:

"The problem is that while throwing to first base may be good strategy, it is lousy entertainment. If the people who wrote baseball's rule book, most of which was basically drawn into its current form in the 1880s and 1890s--if those people had ever thought that some bastard was going to stand on the mound and throw repeatedly to first base, there is absolutely no question but that they would have immediately prohibited it. After all, they did limit the number of times that a pitcher can throw home without getting something accomplished. What kind of sense would it make to say that if you can't get the batter out within four throws you have to concede, but if you want to make 35 pointless throws to first base, I guess that's OK?"

[Zimmer]

Originally Posted by RchW

observations made in a single experience ie game played, saved game or particular season in a long term save ever apply to others.

That goes without saying. Being a numbers/stat type of guy, I did say I am new so I never charted this behavior over a long period of time. I have a background in statistics so I am very familiar with significant sample sizes etc.

I appreciate your comment and it is right on. What bothered me is those trying to imply that 7 throws in a row to 1B is not unusual and that is simply not a point that can even be argued. One does not need to watch the next 500 MLB games to verify that 7 throws in a row to 1B is a big outlier and very unusual.

I will take note of this as I play more and come back to comment in my assumption that this will happen again too often. Thx again for your good comment.

[Zimmer]

Sweed, re your "I don't think anyone here is being unfriendly ... and "Tone and inflection doesn't carry well in written responses on a message board." ...

I was not referring to those who responded to me as being unfriendly, I was referring to me, myself and I ... I warned you ahead of time that you may not like my response and wanted to stress "Look everyone, I am new and want to be friends and stay friends ... however, I am surprised at all your responses." I wanted all of you to know I am friendly and respect everyone.

So you are right about tone and reflection and message boards because you did not interpret (read into) what I said the right way. You thought one thing and I was acting out opposite to what you thought.

Also Sweed re "as far as I can tell, you are only posting about a one time thing" ...

The way the math works is such ... as a new player and seeing this behavior for just a few times, it was VERY clear that the great odds are what I am seeing is "the norm", "the average behavior for pressing 4". Now, those 7 throws could have been an outlier but the odds are what I saw reflected a bias toward a lot of throws to 1B. The math simply is that there are less odds you see an outlier in a one time new thing and greater odds you are seeing the norm or close to the norm ... none of which means a lot because a meaningful observation must include a large sample size to be meaningful but it is anecdotal info that leads to an assumption.

By the way, I got fed up with the 7th throw and just stopped attempting to steal and autoplayed the next pitch so who knows how any times that pitcher would have continued to throw to 1B.

Regardless, I will note the behavior after playing a larger sample size and come back to this thread and comment where I assume I will be giving some data about the number of throws and if it is excessive compared to real life.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by Zeth

20 years ago Bill James argued for a rule that a pitcher gets two freebies on throws to bases per inning, and after that if he throws to a base and doesn't pick the runner off, it's a ball for the batter. I agree with him. As maddening as the throws to first are in OOTP, they're ten times worse when you're actually trying to watch a baseball game.

Which means the runner would just take off after the second attempt. If you've pitched at any competitive level you know that your job is prevent the other team from scoring runs, not to entertain the audience. If the pitcher has a very good reason to believe the runner is going to steal then the pitcher's job is to try to prevent that happening. If he can't pick the runner off, he can at least prevent him from getting a good jump and giving his catcher a fighting chance to throw the runner out. If that means throwing over multiple times, so be it. The last thing the pitcher is thinking, "I shouldn't throw over, it will bore the fans."