The AI and Trading

babs42 · 07-14-2017, 07:52 PM

OOTP is an excellent game, probably one of the best sports games out there. However, when it comes to trading, the AI needs serious work. Take this example I ran (Hard difficulty, which is the most realistic according to a decent amount of threads I found, Neutral preference). I am playing as the Yankees, and I am attempting to trade with the Cubs. We both have winning records, and they are a "Win Now" team. I wanted to see what I could get for Dellin Betances. Dellin has a 2.43 ERA with 42 K's in 30 innings, and a FIP of about 3. He has 2 1/2 years left before free agency. The Cubs have Wade Davis, who is pitching to a 4.55 ERA in his walk year. For one of baseball's best relievers, the Cubs should be willing to give up at least one top prospect, possibly 2. When attempting to trade with them for three of their top prospects (just one at a time, not bundled together), the AI stated we were way off in negotiations, with my assistant GM stating we were giving up way too much. Whenever I attempted to make the trade work, the AI wanted one of my best players, in addition to Betances, for one top prospect. Then I attempted to trade Dellin for Davis straight, which would be an easy win on paper for the Cubs, and yet they thought that trade would be bad for them. Clearly, the AI either wants to fleece, or lets you fleece them. I have no idea how to fix the problem, and I understand that it's much easier to point out a problem than to offer a solution, but I think the more we talk about it the better chance it can get fixed.

steady teddy · 07-14-2017, 08:14 PM

I don't have an answer. Just piling on if you will. The trade logic is one of the reasons why I stopped played OOTP extensively for a few years. Now I've just learned to live with it. Been seeing the same thing as you. There's no damn middle ground in this game regarding trades for the most part. Either the AI wants to fleece you, or you change the settings and fleece the AI.

I've seen people mention over the years they've have trade difficulty set to hard and get decent trade offers. I wonder if we're playing the same game. It's been talked about for years. I think if it could have been fixed by now it would, unless the Devs think it doesn't need fixing...

Erik · 07-15-2017, 08:21 AM

I had a career 4th outfielder on my team. He came up huge in the World Series for me and became kind of a local hero at least in my mind. He ended up costing too much for a 4th outfielder after a few years of arbitration so I let him go. Fast forward about 5 years and I looked him up. He was stuck in AAA for a non contender. I tried to bring him back for a stretch run and the only thing the AI would trade him for was my top pitching prospect. I tried loading up several of my top prospects but they had none of it. They specifically wanted one guy. The trade would have been embarrassingly one sided if I did that. I let it go. A year later tried the same thing. Guy still on same team stuck in AAA. Mind you they are paying him a decent salary to play there too. They still would only trade him for my top prospect. After that year he retired. I'd never seen anything like that before in my OOTP years.

RchW · 07-15-2017, 09:48 AM

I'd rather feel that I paid too much and/or can't make a trade than the other way. As with the in game part the trade AI is an improvement vs earlier versions. That being said if the AI approaches me for a trade it is unacceptable for the response to be, "you have no player that makes this work".

In general I find the current trade AI smart enough to ask for just the players I don't want to let go. Isn't that what a human rival should do.

steady teddy · 07-15-2017, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

In general I find the current trade AI smart enough to ask for just the players I don't want to let go. Isn't that what a human rival should do.

Look at the trade that just occurred between the Cubs & the White Sox. I know nothing about the prospects the White Sox received in the trade and time will only tell how they pan out because after all, prospects are nothing more than prospects. But that's not my point.

Chances are if you had control of the Cubs (or ANY team for that matter) in OOTP 18 and tried to acquire a pitcher of Quintana's caliber, the AI would not only ask for 2-3 quality prospects, but also the best player on your team. It would be fine as you say if the Trade AI merely wanted players you don't want to let go. But in 99% of the trades, the AI wants the Sun , the Stars, the Moon, and everything in between.

Orcin · 07-15-2017, 11:57 AM

This trade is from July 7 in my game. The trade settings are hard/neutral. The White Sox are 35-49 and rebuilding. I offered my two top prospects (#25 and #82) and clicked "make it work". I got back a list of major league players and some other prospects. I picked a prospect that was rated well but not in the top 200 to seal the deal. This is not unlike the actual trade in terms of prospects that the White Sox received. This trade seems pretty realistic to me and it was easy to make.

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low · 07-15-2017, 12:40 PM

I self-impose a one-trade-per-year rule to avoid the AI trading headaches. And if I continue to get bothered for a specific prospect I immediately put them on the no touchy list.

Déjà Bru · 07-15-2017, 01:16 PM

I hate to be a downer (hmmm, I haven't gotten any party invitations in ages) but you guys need to remember two things:

1) OOTP developers set up the MLB quickstart with the best real-player ratings that they can compile. Once that is done, they have no control over how the AI "sees" and evaluates these players. Your perception of these trade negotiations is influenced by what you know about Betances and Davis in real life. The AI does not know this. (Besides, the AI may be right; in case you have not noticed, Betances is not doing very well right now.)

2) When you set trade difficulty to Hard, the program is made to bust your chops. If anything, THIS is the complaint about AI trading in this game; on Hard, it's too one-sided but on Average difficulty, it's too easy. Regardless of who is in the trade, the game is programmed to demand extra value on Hard difficulty.

steady teddy · 07-15-2017, 01:34 PM

I started a new Standard game taking control of the Cubs and playing the role of Theo Einstein (GM only). I turned injuries OFF so the simulation would go quicker. As of July 1st the Cubs were in 1st place by 7 games and Arietta was 10-5 with a 2.55 ERA, unlike the real pitcher who's fallen off a cliff. So the Cubs in this save are not really desperate for a SP.

Nonetheless I attempted to trade for Quintana who is not having the greatest of seasons, the White Sox are 40-40 9 games out of first.

Selecting "Makes this work now!" wasn't surprising.

Jimenez is 5 Star potential, Cease is 4 Star & the other two are 1 star. The offer for all four prospects was considered a fair offer by the Sox and my assistant GM though I would not have done it based on Quintana's performance this year in my save.

This proves nothing. Everyone with different teams/prospects will get different results.

steady teddy · 07-15-2017, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

I hate to be a downer (hmmm, I haven't gotten any party invitations in ages) but you guys need to remember two things:

1) OOTP developers set up the MLB quickstart with the best real-player ratings that they can compile. Once that is done, they have no control over how the AI "sees" and evaluates these players. Your perception of these trade negotiations is influenced by what you know about Betances and Davis in real life. The AI does not know this. (Besides, the AI may be right; in case you have not noticed, Betances is not doing very well right now.)

.

My saves are usually with Fictional players (except for Historical Leagues) because I'm fed up dealing with real players and what their perceived ratings and trade values are in this game. I don't disagree with anything you've said, I just don't want to deal with the hassle.

But even with Fictional rosters it would be nice to offer a 3 Star Catcher even up for a 3 Star 1st Baseman if both teams have a need. It's like pulling teeth.

NoOne · 07-15-2017, 01:46 PM

i think the problem is the expectation to get top-tier talent for a guy who pitchest 60-80ip per year.

i've seen the ai pay for a high-end closer, not often though.

also, don't htink it's 'realistic' because of consensus in the forums. not one person has ever done what's needed in order to have an opinion that amounts to more than a stab in the dark. have to consider how the components were thought of when traded, not resulting careers to compare apples to apples. if there's a repository of data, no problem.. otehrwise no one has done this to give an educated opinion -- from teh peanut gallery.

Déjà Bru · 07-15-2017, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steady teddy

My saves are usually with Fictional players (except for Historical Leagues) because I'm fed up dealing with real players and what their perceived ratings and trade values are in this game. I don't disagree with anything you've said, I just don't want to deal with the hassle.

But even with Fictional rosters it would be nice to offer a 3 Star Catcher even up for a 3 Star 1st Baseman if both teams have a need. It's like pulling teeth.

I empathize. It's one of the difficult things about playing with real, current players in that simulated results, while rather accurate in the aggregate, may diverge from reality in detail, leading to disappointment. It's one of the reasons why I only play fictional.

As far as your last paragraph, yes, I believe that is what the real problem is with AI and Trading. As I said above, Average difficulty is too easy and Hard difficulty is too unfair and therefore unrealistic.

Orcin · 07-15-2017, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steady teddy

Jimenez is 5 Star potential, Cease is 4 Star & the other two are 1 star. The offer for all four prospects was considered a fair offer by the Sox and my assistant GM though I would not have done it based on Quintana's performance this year in my save.

This proves nothing. Everyone with different teams/prospects will get different results.

It proves nothing? Unless I am reading your post incorrectly, the White Sox would make the same trade in the game as real life. I am not sure what else you want the game to do.

It is not surprising that selecting "make this work" as a one-for-one trade yielded no results. The White Sox were not interested in taking on major league players for Quintana, or one prospect for Quintana. The AI GM apparently wanted multiple players that don't need to be on the 40-man roster for Quintana and, when you offered a trade like that, he accepted it. Again, I don't see why that suggests a problem with the trade module.

steady teddy · 07-15-2017, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

It proves nothing? Unless I am reading your post incorrectly, the White Sox would make the same trade in the game as real life. I am not sure what else you want the game to do.

It is not surprising that selecting "make this work" as a one-for-one trade yielded no results. The White Sox were not interested in taking on major league players for Quintana, or one prospect for Quintana. The AI GM apparently wanted multiple players that don't need to be on the 40-man roster for Quintana and, when you offered a trade like that, he accepted it. Again, I don't see why that suggests a problem with the trade module.

Does the trade module consider teams in dire need to fill a weakness fighting for a playoff spot or does it just look at a team's weakness? I have no idea. Yes, I was able to replicate the actual trade that took place. In hindsight I'm surprised the AI didn't ask for more.

I said it proves nothing, for me at least, because I was hoping the Cubs in my save would have a season similar to the one they're having now. Either way I still would not have made this trade if I am controlling the Cubs & looking at how Quintana is performing in the save. On paper it looks like I'm getting taken to the cleaners. As I said, prospects are nothing more than prospects but it looks like 2 of them may come back to haunt me.

Of course the AI would make a trade like this. The AI trade logic makes the trade easily for all the reasons you mentioned. I think I would end up getting the raw end of the deal either short term or long term. I say that because most times the AI is willing to accept a trade it turns out to be a disaster. For me that is.

Orcin · 07-15-2017, 04:16 PM

I understand your point now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by steady teddy

Either way I still would not have made this trade if I am controlling the Cubs & looking at how Quintana is performing in the save.

One thing to consider is the AI evaluation settings. By default, the game is looking at 65% ratings in a current MLB game, so Quintana's current performance may have less of an impact on the AI's thinking than it would for you or me.

The AI does consider the team's standing in its trading decisions, along with the budget, owner goals, and its own scout's view of the players involved. Also, the AI GM has his own "personality" which may favor prospects more than the average AI GM.

smiller · 07-15-2017, 04:41 PM

Why not a setting between average and hard, such as "somewhat hard," or something similar?

steady teddy · 07-15-2017, 04:42 PM

^ I usually leave trade settings on default with each game start. I'll have to tinker with it.

endgame · 07-15-2017, 04:42 PM

Is it perfect? No. In fact, I don't know what perfect would look like. What I do know is everyone reports varied experiences because the AI has varied responses and even with identical settings, there are variables in play (I don't want to list them right now) that offer the potential to mitigate the trade talk and the value of the components.

AI teams, GMs, organizations, etc... all have different outlooks, compositions. and the umbrella term: philosophies. Add the AI variables and you have a facsimile of unpredictable and often disappointing life. What do we want? A universal algorithm that treats every player, every team, every negotiation, identically? Working at the combinations and offers is part of it. Equitable, 'I like it' trades aren't served on any platter. They involve investigation and open the door to further talks and offers.

There are a couple of suggestions to intervene and design your own average trade difficulty beyond the settings, but it won't make them ALL work that way, just most. But when the league overall changes, even just a team or two in, say, 24 team leagues, the evaluation will alter.

Enough for now. Ramble any more and you'll mistake me for NoOne. Well, the overuse of commas, added punctuation, and the complete absence of lol's should give me away, right?

It's dynamic. It's trading, not pulling a box of cereal off the shelf and rightly paying the price it's marked. It's cereal in a tent, with a variety of vendors, some of which don't care for your bartering tools or whatever currency you're offering.

THEOVELS · 07-15-2017, 05:09 PM

So far, from what I have read on this thread is it seems to mirror real life. Everyone has a different, al beit, varied, circumstances in their game. I doubt that any of us could make the exact same trade with the AI and at the end of the season have the players involved in the trade have the same results. My last trade involved my choice of two pitchers. One was an established 28 year old with slightly better stats than the 24 year old rookie. I choose the 24 year old. Two days later, the 28 year old get injured and has season ending surgery. I have been on both sides of those trades. That part of the uniqueness of the game, and I have really enjoyed it for 10+ years.

babs42 · 07-15-2017, 05:17 PM

Maybe a possible solution to the problem would be a diversity of answers from the AI. Instead of "I'd never accept!", perhaps something like, "This trade is fair on paper, but we don't want to give up this player unless we're overwhelmed" would be better. Or different outlooks based on how the season is going beyond what we already have, like "we want to win but we aren't willing to give up top prospects for a rental." If this is possible it would create a more realistic trading experience and lead to better communication between AI and player.

07-14-2017, 07:52 PM	#1
babs42 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 24	The AI and Trading OOTP is an excellent game, probably one of the best sports games out there. However, when it comes to trading, the AI needs serious work. Take this example I ran (Hard difficulty, which is the most realistic according to a decent amount of threads I found, Neutral preference). I am playing as the Yankees, and I am attempting to trade with the Cubs. We both have winning records, and they are a "Win Now" team. I wanted to see what I could get for Dellin Betances. Dellin has a 2.43 ERA with 42 K's in 30 innings, and a FIP of about 3. He has 2 1/2 years left before free agency. The Cubs have Wade Davis, who is pitching to a 4.55 ERA in his walk year. For one of baseball's best relievers, the Cubs should be willing to give up at least one top prospect, possibly 2. When attempting to trade with them for three of their top prospects (just one at a time, not bundled together), the AI stated we were way off in negotiations, with my assistant GM stating we were giving up way too much. Whenever I attempted to make the trade work, the AI wanted one of my best players, in addition to Betances, for one top prospect. Then I attempted to trade Dellin for Davis straight, which would be an easy win on paper for the Cubs, and yet they thought that trade would be bad for them. Clearly, the AI either wants to fleece, or lets you fleece them. I have no idea how to fix the problem, and I understand that it's much easier to point out a problem than to offer a solution, but I think the more we talk about it the better chance it can get fixed.

07-15-2017, 09:48 AM	#4
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	I'd rather feel that I paid too much and/or can't make a trade than the other way. As with the in game part the trade AI is an improvement vs earlier versions. That being said if the AI approaches me for a trade it is unacceptable for the response to be, "you have no player that makes this work". In general I find the current trade AI smart enough to ask for just the players I don't want to let go. Isn't that what a human rival should do. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

07-15-2017, 01:34 PM	#9
steady teddy Major Leagues Join Date: May 2003 Location: Macomb, Michigan Posts: 407	I started a new Standard game taking control of the Cubs and playing the role of Theo Einstein (GM only). I turned injuries OFF so the simulation would go quicker. As of July 1st the Cubs were in 1st place by 7 games and Arietta was 10-5 with a 2.55 ERA, unlike the real pitcher who's fallen off a cliff. So the Cubs in this save are not really desperate for a SP. Nonetheless I attempted to trade for Quintana who is not having the greatest of seasons, the White Sox are 40-40 9 games out of first. Selecting "Makes this work now!" wasn't surprising. Jimenez is 5 Star potential, Cease is 4 Star & the other two are 1 star. The offer for all four prospects was considered a fair offer by the Sox and my assistant GM though I would not have done it based on Quintana's performance this year in my save. This proves nothing. Everyone with different teams/prospects will get different results. Attached Images

07-15-2017, 04:42 PM	#18
endgame Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 16,842	Is it perfect? No. In fact, I don't know what perfect would look like. What I do know is everyone reports varied experiences because the AI has varied responses and even with identical settings, there are variables in play (I don't want to list them right now) that offer the potential to mitigate the trade talk and the value of the components. AI teams, GMs, organizations, etc... all have different outlooks, compositions. and the umbrella term: philosophies. Add the AI variables and you have a facsimile of unpredictable and often disappointing life. What do we want? A universal algorithm that treats every player, every team, every negotiation, identically? Working at the combinations and offers is part of it. Equitable, 'I like it' trades aren't served on any platter. They involve investigation and open the door to further talks and offers. There are a couple of suggestions to intervene and design your own average trade difficulty beyond the settings, but it won't make them ALL work that way, just most. But when the league overall changes, even just a team or two in, say, 24 team leagues, the evaluation will alter. Enough for now. Ramble any more and you'll mistake me for NoOne. Well, the overuse of commas, added punctuation, and the complete absence of lol's should give me away, right? It's dynamic. It's trading, not pulling a box of cereal off the shelf and rightly paying the price it's marked. It's cereal in a tent, with a variety of vendors, some of which don't care for your bartering tools or whatever currency you're offering. __________________ "Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett _____________________________________________ Last edited by endgame; 07-15-2017 at 04:57 PM.

07-14-2017, 08:14 PM	#2
steady teddy Major Leagues Join Date: May 2003 Location: Macomb, Michigan Posts: 407	I don't have an answer. Just piling on if you will. The trade logic is one of the reasons why I stopped played OOTP extensively for a few years. Now I've just learned to live with it. Been seeing the same thing as you. There's no damn middle ground in this game regarding trades for the most part. Either the AI wants to fleece you, or you change the settings and fleece the AI. I've seen people mention over the years they've have trade difficulty set to hard and get decent trade offers. I wonder if we're playing the same game. It's been talked about for years. I think if it could have been fixed by now it would, unless the Devs think it doesn't need fixing...

07-15-2017, 08:21 AM	#3
Erik All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 505	I had a career 4th outfielder on my team. He came up huge in the World Series for me and became kind of a local hero at least in my mind. He ended up costing too much for a 4th outfielder after a few years of arbitration so I let him go. Fast forward about 5 years and I looked him up. He was stuck in AAA for a non contender. I tried to bring him back for a stretch run and the only thing the AI would trade him for was my top pitching prospect. I tried loading up several of my top prospects but they had none of it. They specifically wanted one guy. The trade would have been embarrassingly one sided if I did that. I let it go. A year later tried the same thing. Guy still on same team stuck in AAA. Mind you they are paying him a decent salary to play there too. They still would only trade him for my top prospect. After that year he retired. I'd never seen anything like that before in my OOTP years.

07-15-2017, 11:57 AM	#6
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,844	This trade is from July 7 in my game. The trade settings are hard/neutral. The White Sox are 35-49 and rebuilding. I offered my two top prospects (#25 and #82) and clicked "make it work". I got back a list of major league players and some other prospects. I picked a prospect that was rated well but not in the top 200 to seal the deal. This is not unlike the actual trade in terms of prospects that the White Sox received. This trade seems pretty realistic to me and it was easy to make.

07-15-2017, 12:40 PM	#7
low Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2010 Location: Wisconsin, USA Posts: 5,923	I self-impose a one-trade-per-year rule to avoid the AI trading headaches. And if I continue to get bothered for a specific prospect I immediately put them on the no touchy list.

07-15-2017, 01:16 PM	#8
Déjà Bru Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Long Island Posts: 10,946	I hate to be a downer (hmmm, I haven't gotten any party invitations in ages) but you guys need to remember two things: 1) OOTP developers set up the MLB quickstart with the best real-player ratings that they can compile. Once that is done, they have no control over how the AI "sees" and evaluates these players. Your perception of these trade negotiations is influenced by what you know about Betances and Davis in real life. The AI does not know this. (Besides, the AI may be right; in case you have not noticed, Betances is not doing very well right now.) 2) When you set trade difficulty to Hard, the program is made to bust your chops. If anything, THIS is the complaint about AI trading in this game; on Hard, it's too one-sided but on Average difficulty, it's too easy. Regardless of who is in the trade, the game is programmed to demand extra value on Hard difficulty. __________________ - Bru

07-15-2017, 01:46 PM	#11
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,227	i think the problem is the expectation to get top-tier talent for a guy who pitchest 60-80ip per year. i've seen the ai pay for a high-end closer, not often though. also, don't htink it's 'realistic' because of consensus in the forums. not one person has ever done what's needed in order to have an opinion that amounts to more than a stab in the dark. have to consider how the components were thought of when traded, not resulting careers to compare apples to apples. if there's a repository of data, no problem.. otehrwise no one has done this to give an educated opinion -- from teh peanut gallery.

07-15-2017, 04:41 PM	#16
smiller Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2013 Location: Pittsboro NC Posts: 430	Why not a setting between average and hard, such as "somewhat hard," or something similar?

07-15-2017, 05:09 PM	#19
THEOVELS Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: HEAVEN, NO WAIT, THIS IS IOWA Posts: 69	So far, from what I have read on this thread is it seems to mirror real life. Everyone has a different, al beit, varied, circumstances in their game. I doubt that any of us could make the exact same trade with the AI and at the end of the season have the players involved in the trade have the same results. My last trade involved my choice of two pitchers. One was an established 28 year old with slightly better stats than the 24 year old rookie. I choose the 24 year old. Two days later, the 28 year old get injured and has season ending surgery. I have been on both sides of those trades. That part of the uniqueness of the game, and I have really enjoyed it for 10+ years.

07-15-2017, 05:17 PM	#20
babs42 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 24	Maybe a possible solution to the problem would be a diversity of answers from the AI. Instead of "I'd never accept!", perhaps something like, "This trade is fair on paper, but we don't want to give up this player unless we're overwhelmed" would be better. Or different outlooks based on how the season is going beyond what we already have, like "we want to win but we aren't willing to give up top prospects for a rental." If this is possible it would create a more realistic trading experience and lead to better communication between AI and player.