The Grand Old Game -- An Alternative History of Baseball

[mjj55409]

This will be a different kind of a story for me. Typically in my baseball history replays, I hew close to the traditional unfolding of the structure of the baseball universe. I've been long thinking about doing something more dynamic, letting the baseball universe unfold more organically while still remaining plausible.

So that's what we have here -- a retelling of baseball's history that remains open to the possibility that its path could diverge from the path that revealed itself historically. The players will be real, but the clubs and the leagues will be more or less fictional.

Our starting point will be the emergence of the National Association of Professional Base Ball Players as a professional league in 1871. I'm sticking with the name National Association in this case because it feels the most natural to me. The National Association had formed as an amateur association in the 1850s. So we will accept these nascent steps into professionalism as they were.

The clubs however will be different. I'm starting with the census data of 1870. That gives me a list of cities ranked by population. For our pool of potential baseball cities, I'm taking that list and removing the cities with a population of less than 18,900 and that are west of St. Louis and south of a line running from St. Louis to Richmond, VA. This is meant to reflect both the population required to support a club as well as the transportation network necessary to allow the clubs to travel to each other.

Each city is then given a percentage chance based on population to be the home of a baseball club -- from New York's over 16% chance to St. Paul's 0.4% chance. This will determine the initial starting clubs as well as the replacement clubs when existing clubs fold.

At the end of each season, the results will be run through an algorithm that determines which clubs are continuing and which clubs are folding. The league sizes will be determined randomly also, with the sizes tending toward a stable 8 teams in the 19th century and 16 teams after the turn of the century.

There will also be a random chance of a league folding or another competitive league coming into existence. The percentage chance of this happening is setup to reflect the forces that were actually at work. The National League arose because a player-run league did not have enough control over the clubs to maintain its success. The American Association arose because baseball was proving more popular and the National League was ignoring some primary cities. My hope is that by the turn of the century a stable two (three?) league structure is in place. At which point we should start seeing the emergence of a minor league structure and ultimately a Negro League structure.

But we are getting ahead of ourselves. First we must hope that baseball survives the 19th century.

[mjj55409]

New York Times
March 1, 1871

It will be but a few weeks hence when the ball-fields of the Metropolis will again become the scene of the interesting contests of the base-ball season, and the promise is that we are to have the most exciting trials of skill on record in all the principal cities of the Union. In all there are nine clubs that have declared their intention for championship match play in the coming year:

the Empire Ball Club of this City,
Wolverine Club of Detroit,
Union Club of Chicago,
Lake City Club of Buffalo,
Olympic Club of Philadelphia,
Monarch Ball Club of Cincinnati,
White Stockings of Indianapolis,
Forest City Club of Cleveland,
Blue Stockings of Hartford

In the estimation of most base ball observers, Cincinnati has put together a very formidable nine for this season, led by young shortstop Ross Barnes and pitcher Ryne Wolters. The New York club has engaged Cherokee Fisher to pitch, while Al Spalding has gone with Detroit and young Mathews is in Indianapolis.

[JaBurns]

Wow this sounds like a big but interesting project. Can you give details on how clubs and leagues are formed and folded as you go along in this story?

[mjj55409]

Originally Posted by JaBurns

Wow this sounds like a big but interesting project. Can you give details on how clubs and leagues are formed and folded as you go along in this story?

I don't want to expose to much of the machinery; my preference is to let the narrative do the heavy lifting. The folding algorithm is relatively simple--performance and attendance are the main drivers. If you win and/or draw well, you should be safe. Other historic factors can be taken into consideration. Chicago, for instance, receives a big penalty in 1871 because of the fire which destroyed much of the city, including the ballpark and the team equipment.

[mjj55409]

Cincinnati Plays Final Association Game; Falls to Philadelphia; Score 7 to 6.
New York Times
October 31, 1871
The Monarch Club met the Olympics in the Metropolis to-day, playing the final scheduled game of the 1871 National Association season. Philadelphia have proved themselves the class of Association, claiming the whip-pennant by winning nine championship matches since the beginning of August behind the incomparable pitching of ZETTLEIN.



Association Leaders

Average: .438, Tom Berry, Buffalo
Hits: 85, Tom Berry, Buffalo
Runs: 56, Paddy Quinn, Cincinnati
RBI: 55, George Betchel, Cincinnati
Home runs: 10, George Hall, Detroit
Stolen bases: 18, Dickie Flowers, Indianapolis

Pitching wins: 27, Ryne Wolters, Cincinnati
ERA: 2.39, Cherokee Fisher, New York
Strikeouts: 27, John McMullin, Hartford


l-to-r, Tom Berry, Cherokee Fisher

[CatKnight]

You best investigate Mr. Hall of Detroit, sir. Ten home runs? Outrageous.

[mjj55409]

Entries for the Championship of 1872--The Various Clubs Preparing for the Coming Season
New York Times
February 25, 1872

With the exception of Chicago and Buffalo, all of last year's nines will be in the field again. Chicago, on account of the great fire, will not be fielding a nine this year. As for Buffalo, the financial losses for finishing in last ditch were too great. To make up for the absence of those two clubs, new entries from Utica and Baltimore were accepted along with another entry from New York City.

The competing nines are as follows:

Olympic of Philadelphia. Led by pitcher George Zettlein (26-12, 3.66) and 1B Joe Start (.446, 22 runs). They add promising amateur Al Thake to the mix.

White Stockings of Indianapolis. This is the pick of many observers to take the whip-pennant. They are led by pitcher Bobby Mathews (19-19, 3.03), LF Steve King (.389, 49 runs), and CF Cal McVey (.391, 48 runs).

Monarch Club of Cincinnati. They are led by pitcher Ryne Wolters (27-14, 2.58) and SS Ross Barnes (.425, 46 runs).

Elm City Club of Utica. They signed 1871 batting champion Tom Berry (.438, 50 runs), late of Buffalo.

Hilltops of New York. The new club from the city has two former Buffalo stars--Pitcher Dick McBride (11-25, 3.98) and SS George Wright (.408, 54 runs).

Excelsiors of Baltimore. The new Baltimore entry has former Chicago pitcher Al Pratt (17-20, 4.02).

Forest Citys of Cleveland. They are led by pitcher Asa Brainard (15-23, 3.47) and RF Levi Meyerle (.402, 42 runs).

Wolverines of Detroit. They are led by pitcher Al Spalding (17-23, 3.18) and RF George Hall (.312, 42 runs).

Empire Club of New York. They are led by pitcher Cherokee Fisher (25-13, 2.39) and 1B Charles Bierman (.296, 37 runs).

Blues of Hartford. They are led by pitcher John McMullin (14-23, 3.42) and RF Lip Pike (.364, 43 runs).

[mjj55409]

Both Philadelphia and Indianapolis have started strong. The rest of the Association clubs are struggling to keep pace. Indianapolis has then top offense thus far led by new catcher Jim O'Rourke (.440, 19 runs).


l-to-r, Jim O'Rourke, George Zettlein

[ashantewarrier]

Originally Posted by mjj55409

Both Philadelphia and Indianapolis have started strong. The rest of the Association clubs are struggling to keep pace. Indianapolis has then top offense thus far led by new catcher Jim O'Rourke (.440, 19 runs).


l-to-r, Jim O'Rourke, George Zettlein

Good to see you're back!!!

[mjj55409]

Indianapolis won it's first six matches of the season and they remained in first place all summer long, surviving a late charge from Baltimore and the Empire Club.



Batting Leaders

Average
.451....Cal McVey, Indianapolis
.425....Jim O'Rourke, Indianapolis
.392....Levi Meyerle, Cleveland
.379....Al Thake, Philadelphia
.372....Davy Force, Indianapolis

Runs
58....Frank McCarton, Baltimore
56....Tom Berry, Utica
56....Jim O'Rourke, Indianapolis
55....Cal McVey, Indianapolis
52....Dick Hunt, Baltimore

RBI
48....Deacon White, Baltimore
46....Count Gedney, Cincinnati
45....Ross Barnes, Cincinnati
44....Frank Norton, Utica
44....Lip Pike, Hartford

Home runs
5....Ezra Sutton, Cleveland
4....Lip Pike, Hartford
3....Doug Allison, Cleveland
3....Frank Norton, Utica


Pitching Leaders

Wins
26....Bobby Mathews, Indianapolis
25....Cherokee Fisher, Empires
25....Al Pratt, Baltimore
22....Ryne Wolters, Cincinnati
22....George Zettlein, Philadelphia

ERA
2.12....Cherokee Fisher, Empires
2.26....Candy Cummings, Utica
2.54....Bobby Mathews, Indianpolis
2.67....Al Spalding, Detroit

Strikeouts
28....Cherokee Fisher, Empires
26....Asa Brainard, Cleveland
25....Al Spalding, Detroit
22....Bobby Mathews, Indianapolis
21....Dick McBride, Hilltops


Notes

The Association had a slight chance to fold after this season, but it passed its check so it will survive into 1873. Detroit, Cleveland, Hartford, Utica, and the Hilltops all had a chance to fold. Detroit and Utica lost those rolls, so those two clubs will fold (which means Al Spalding is a free agent). The Association will stay at ten clubs for 1873. The new entries are the Lynn Atlantics and the Philadelphia Pearls.



l-to-r, Cal McVey, Bobby Mathews

[mjj55409]

Annual Convention
New York Times
Baltimore, March, 3, 1873—The professional base-ball players held their annual convention at the St. Clair Hotel, of this city, to-night, Joe Start, of the Olympics, of Philadelphia, presiding. Eight of the ten clubs which competed in 1872 were present, missing were the clubs from Detroit and Utica, neither of which will field a nine this season. There were two new entries present, another club from Philadelphia and the club from Lynn.

The competitive nines will be represented as follows:

Baltimore has a first-class nine, and they will be looking to claim the pennant after finishing just outside last season. They are led by Al Pratt (25-13, 3.10) and Frank Norton (.358, 50 runs).

Cincinnati always fields a strong club, led by Ryne Wolters (22-23, 2.85) and Ross Barnes (.369, 42 runs).

The Olympic Club of Philadelphia will attempt to reclaim the pennant it lost last season. They are led by George Zettlein (22-20, 3.36) and Eddie Booth (.336, 42 runs).

The Indianapolis Club has the difficult task of defending the pennant. They are capably led by Bobby Mathews (26-15, 2.54) and Cal McVey (.451, 55 runs).

The Hartford Club has on its side John McMullin (12-23, 3.39) and Lip Pike (.362, 39 runs).

The Hilltop Club of the city has been having a tough go of drawing fans to watch its games. They are led by Dick McBride (18-26, 2.68) and George Wright (.340, 46 runs).

The Empire Club is the city club that has the more loyal fans. They come out to watch Cherokee Fisher (25-15, 2.12) and John Bass (.311, 49 runs).

The new Philadelphia entry, the Pearls, will have the arduous task of drawing fans away from their rivals. They have a capable pitcher in Al Spalding (17-28, 2.67), late of the Detroit Club.

The Cleveland Club is rumored to be in financial difficulties. They have two tremendous batsmen in Levi Meyerle (.392, 50 runs) and Ezra Sutton (.290, 46 runs).

The final Association entry is the Atlantic Club of Lynn. They will feature the debut of young Massachusetts pitcher Candy Cummings. The young Cummings was around the Utica Club last season, though he was not given the responsibility of being the primary pitcher. All who have observed it raves about the "curved ball" of Cummings.

[mjj55409]

The Indianapolis Club once again broke out of the gates fast, this time winning its first seven matches, but they couldn't maintain that pace all summer. We saw a good race between Baltimore and the Olympics, but again Baltimore finds itself in 2nd place by a single game as the Olympic claims its 2nd whip-pennant. A hard-luck club, Baltimore has won 59 games over its two seasons in the league. They don't yet compare with Cincinnati, which has won 76 games in the three Association seasons with only a single 2nd place finish to show for it.

The new entries in Lynn and Philadelphia did not fare too well. The Pearl Club was of course overshadowed by it's championship neighbor. The Lynn Club fared about as well as one would expect.

In the City, the Hilltops outplayed the Empire, but again the Empire drew the most fans.

In addition to hitting .452, Ross Barnes finished the season with a 38 game hitting streak, which matched the streak Jim O'Rourke had earlier in the season.




Association Leaders

Batting Leaders

Average
.452....Ross Barnes, Cincinnati
.395....Cal McVey, Indianapolis
.390....Ezra Sutton, Cleveland
.386....Tom Barlow, Cincinnati
.381....Fraley Rogers, Olympic

Runs
68....Tom Barlow, Cincinnati
58....Paddy Quinn, Cincinnati
57....Cap Anson, Olympic
56....Tim Murnane, Hilltops
53....Ross Barnes, Cincinnati

RBI
55....Ross Barnes, Cincinnati
45....Ezra Sutton, Cleveland
45....Tom York, Cleveland
43....Cal McVey, Indianapolis
43....Tim Murnane, Hilltops

Home runs
5....George Hall, Baltimore
4....John Bass, Empire
3....Levi Meyerle, Cleveland
3....Lip Pike, Hartford

Stolen bases
41....Ross Barnes, Cincinnati
34....Paddy Quinn, Cincinnati
26....George Wright, Hilltops
25....Denny Mack, Hilltops
23....Fred Treacey, Hartford


Pitching Leaders

Wins
30....George Zettlein, Philadelphia
29....Al Pratt, Baltimore
27....Ryne Wolters, Cincinnati
23....Bobby Mathews, Indianapolis
22....Dick McBride, Hilltops

ERA
2.33....Bobby Mathews, Indianapolis
2.66....Al Pratt, Baltimore
2.68....Ryne Wolters, Cincinnati
2.69....Dick McBride, Hilltops
2.71....Al Spalding, Pearls

Strikeouts
26....Candy Cummings, Lynn
21....Dick McBride, Hilltops
20....Asa Brainerd, Cleveland
18....John McMullin, Hartford
17....Al Spalding, Pearls


l-to-r, Ross Barnes, Tom Barlow, George Zettlein

[mjj55409]

Annual Convention
New York Times,
November 15, 1873

The professional base ball clubs gathered at the Metropolitan Hotel in this city to-day for their annual convention. There was much discussion about the instability of the Association--each year a number of the clubs that enter a championship season do not continue the following year. It was put forth that this was due to a lack of a rigorous vetting process; a club with a desire of entry into the Association merely needs to send a representative to the convention and pay the membership fee, which currently stands at $10. There is no effort put forth to adjudge the soundness of the club entering. There was also rancorous debate put forth by the New York representatives--how can their clubs be made to compete with the likes of Philadelphia and Indianapolis when they are competing so vigorously with each other over their own markets?

In looking forward to the 1874 season, we can be assured of right and able competition once again. The Olympic Club will return to defend its whip-pennant, joined by Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Hartford, and both the Empire and the Hilltops of this city. Cleveland, Lynn, and the Pearl Club of Philadelphia will not continue with Association. 1874 will also see the return of the Chicago Club and new clubs from Allegheny and Dayton.

[mjj55409]

Preview of the Competitive Nines
New York Times
February 8, 1874

The Monarch Club of Cincinnati has some of the best batsmen of the Association, foremost among them being Ross Barnes (.452, 53 runs) and Jack Remsen (.349, 50 runs). They always field a capable nine but have yet to claim a pennant.

The Indianapolis Club will make a run at another pennant behind the bats of Jim O'Rourke (.346, 48 runs) and Cal McVey (.395, 48 runs).

Baltimore means this to be the year they finally claim the championship. They are admirably led by the bats of Frank McCarton (.352, 44 runs) and George Hall (.327, 42 runs).

The Hilltops have the capable bats of Tim Murnane (.344, 56 runs) and Candy Nelson (.365, 43 runs).

The Empire relies on Jim Foran (.335, 46 runs) and John Bass (.295, 43).

Cap Anson (.377, 57 runs) and Eddie Booth (.345, 53 runs) are ready to defend the whip-pennant for the Philadelphias.

Hartford boasts the bats of Dick Higham (.351, 43 runs) and Lip Pike (.329, 40 runs).

The new Dayton Club has taken on two former stars from Cleveland, Levi Meyerle (.370, 51 runs) and Ezra Sutton (.390, 41 runs).

The Chicago Club returns with Al Spalding (17-27, 2.71), late of the Pearl Club, and promising amateur Orator Shafer.

The Allegheny Club doesn't have much to offer unfortunately beyond the arm of the old man Asa Brainard (16-28, 3.72), late of Cleveland.

[mjj55409]

March -- National Association officially adopts the batters box.

May 26 -- 2nd running of the Preakness: William Donohue aboard Culpepper wins.

June 13 -- 8th running of the Belmont: G Barbee aboard Saxon wins

July 9 -- Cincinnati loses to Chicago by a score of 10-1 in Chicago. Ross Barnes goes 0-4, ending his hitting streak at a Association record 59 games. Barnes' current season average stands at .476.

July 30 -- First baseball teams to play outside of the U.S. Baltimore-Philadelphia play an exhibition series in the British Isles.

[rhombus46]

Definitely following this story with interest. I am setting up something similar, but with a later start date (1914) and imagining if the major leagues affiliated with the minor leagues and instituted promotion and relegation.

I was wondering if you would be open to sharing your method for calculating potential franchises closing or moving, as that would also really help the immersion of my league.

Thanks in advance.

[mjj55409]

Originally Posted by rhombus46

if you would be open to sharing your method for calculating potential franchises closing or moving

I'm keeping things relatively simple--I consider wins/losses (+/- over .500), and attendance. Attendance is given a factor relative to league average. This gives me a number that is a % chance of folding. At the end of 1873, for instance Lynn had a 64% chance of folding; they struggled to win a quarter of their games and their attendance was about half of the league average. Even Indianapolis had a 4% chance of folding; while they had an okay season, their attendance dropped a bit because they were not really in the race. If a team survives their chance of folding, that chance decays at 50% and carries over to be added the chance calculated for the next season. So once a team starts teetering, they'll need a good run of seasons to pull out of the death spiral. This is ultimately what happened to Cleveland.

Here's the page of the results for 1873 as an example (a negative number essentially means the team is guaranteed to survive). The Misc column has the carry over value from 1872. Notice that the Hilltops were very lucky once again, but that luck means they would start 1874 with a -18*.5+52*.5 = 37% chance of folding.

[rhombus46]

Originally Posted by mjj55409

Here's the page of the results for 1873 as an example (a negative number essentially means the team is guaranteed to survive). The Misc column has the carry over value from 1872. Notice that the Hilltops were very lucky once again, but that luck means they would start 1874 with a -18*.5+52*.5 = 37% chance of folding.

This is great. I was thinking this morning of how I would do it, but yours is more well thought out. Thanks very much!

I am also curious how you figure in the internal OOTP metrics, such as Fan Interest and Loyalty as well as Market Size? Do you adjust those to reflect your impressions of the narrative or do you let the engine handle it?

[mjj55409]

This season Cincinnati was the club that raced out of the gates, winning their first 13 matches. They cooled off as the summer waned, however, as Indianapolis and the Hilltops made things close. Indianapolis overtook the Monarchs in the final weeks of the season, holding on for its second pennant. Baltimore and Philadelphia finished off the pace.




Association Leaders

Batting

Average
.449....Ross Barnes, Cincinnati
.415....Tim Murnane, Hilltops
.397....Eddie Booth, Philadelphia
.380....John Clapp, Philadelphia
.374....Levi Meyerle, Dayton

Runs
56....Cal McVey, Indianapolis
51....Jim O'Rourke, Indianapolis
49....Herman Dehlman, Dayton
47....Ross Barnes, Cincinnati
47....Eddie Booth, Philadelphia

RBI
47....Ross Barnes, Cincinnati
43....Ezra Sutton, Cleveland
42....Eddie Booth, Philadelphia
40....Jim O'Rourke, Indianapolis
40....Jack Remsen, Cincinnati

Home Runs
3....Levi Meyerle, Dayton

Stolen Bases
23....Paddy Quinn, Cincinnati
22....Ross Barnes, Cincinnati
20....George Wright, Hilltops
19....Jimmy Hallinan, Empire
16....Cap Anson, Philadelphia


Pitching

Wins
32....Bobby Mathews, Indianapolis
30....Ryne Wolters, Cincinnati
27....Dick McBride, Hilltops
24....George Zettlein, Philadelphia
22....Al Pratt, Baltimore

ERA
1.99....Cherokee Fisher, Empire
2.19....John McMullin, Hartford
2.33....Al Spalding, Chicago
2.35....Ryne Wolters, Cincinnati
2.47....George Zettlein, Philadelphia

Strikeouts
29....Al Pratt, Baltimore
22....Dick McBride, Hilltops
22....Al Spalding, Chicago
19....Tommy Bond, Dayton
18....George Zettlein



l-to-r, Cal McVey, Bobby Mathews

[mjj55409]

A Meeting of the Managers of the Professional Nines
New York Times
February 8, 1875

A meeting of the managers of all the professional base-ball organizations of this country, excepting the Allegheny Club, was held at the Grand Central Hotel on Wednesday, Feb. 3, at 2 o'clock. The first action was the passage of a resolution preventing two clubs from any one city entering for the championship. As a consequence, the two clubs of this city entered a mutual agreement, combining their nines to produce a new professional organization.

The following clubs entered for the championship: Olympic of Philadelphia, Excelsior of Baltimore, White Stocking of Indianapolis, Blue Stocking of Hartford, Diadem of Dayton, Union of Chicago, Monarch of Cincinnati, and the new "Mutual" club of New York.

The Association will be known as the National League of Professional Base-Ball Clubs, and has nothing whatever to do with the old National Association. The new National League is to be governed by a Board of five Directors, and they will not allow two professional clubs to exist in the same city. The clubs belonging to the league are also forbidden, by the constitution, to play either championship or exhibition games with any club outside of the association.