Minor League Down Arrows

BKL · 04-04-2017, 11:53 AM

I play fictional league with two minor leagues (AAA and AA). Under transactions, I always have a bunch of players with down arrows next to their name. I believe this means they are better suited to a lower league. Yet, the AI won't demote them. In a test league, I eliminated all restrictions (roster size, service time, etc.) and also added a third minor league (A). Yet, it still shows players with down arrows.

Any thoughts?

andyhdz · 04-04-2017, 12:19 PM

Those arrows are used to give you a rough idea on where the player should be but many people ignore them. Use them as a rough guide and use your own judgement. As you can see even the AI ignores them sometimes but I think it's because of the players above or below them. Run a minor league report and it will also tell you what they think the player is at.

NoOne · 04-04-2017, 05:52 PM

Those are the MiL Manager suggestions. Even when you let your assistant gm handle that stuff, the green and red arrows still exist. they disagree with anyone making the decision - sometimes falsely, sometimes for good reason. needs investigation. (i'd suggest only worrying about hte 'better' prospects of value to your team or a trade)

if you have 100% accurate ratings, ignore the arrows for sure, if you know how thresholds for player's ratings at each level. in that case, you know for sure the results are just bad luck with 100% certainty (again, requires intimate knowledge of your mil system).

*i think i should have put this one first:
are they still developing well? check scouting reports to easily see a trend in ratings changes. if he gained a chunk since april and hit .200, why would you move him? Good development trumps results with a low confidence level all day long. remember you are working with incredibly small sample sizes during a season... 2months is easy to produce a .190 hitter who is a possible future HoF goat or simply just a very well-rated player for that league.

use them like any other feedback that is purposefully inaccurate a portion of the time. you need to know a baseline slash / era for each minor leauge *whichever stats you like, not suggesting those are "it"... so, make sure to auto-calc your minors on their opening day and heed that estimated slash line in LEague settigns->Stats and AI page. if you do this, average players will be average slash, in general. per player this deviates quite a bit any year (any small sample)

if anywhere near average, they are probably okay. just like a guy in the MLB hits .255 can hit .200 for a season or maybe .300, same idea.

the following is relative to having ratings on and using htem as the first priority: i think default mlb Rookie is ~.316 BA? guy's bombing .350+ i look into. ~10% above is probably good to go, but still often enough not quite good enough for a promotion that you can't just make this a simple: if x then y decision. if x, maybe y... when it's not 100% accurate info we are working with. wihtout ratings, that's even more unknown, but still similar ideas for different perspectives of playing the game. in my case, stats are a secondary thing to verify better info elsewhere... that's not always the case with ratings on, either... bad scout, cheap scouting budget etc etc...

Sam_15 · 04-04-2017, 06:03 PM

Another variable in this equation is the talent in the system. Even if a guy is not really suited for his current level, if there's no one below him that's any better, the AI probably won't send him down due to the lack of alternative options.

NoOne · 04-04-2017, 06:12 PM

if that's happening alot in your league, i'd bump up player creation per year - draft or int'l or whatever adds young players that you want to bump.

i think that has to happen naturally, too, though (in RL too). hopefully the ai prefers to match skill to level - since there's a setting realted to this logic it's not a reach, but i've never looked into this behaviour before, either.

(incomplete rosters - can match ability instead of filling top-down - wish that was always an option or always on with complete rostes, lol. i don't want ghost players...)

heh... i'm going to try turning ghost players on and since i never have too few players, maybe it's inconsequential and i can take advantage of that AI

04-04-2017, 11:53 AM	#1
BKL All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 935	Minor League Down Arrows I play fictional league with two minor leagues (AAA and AA). Under transactions, I always have a bunch of players with down arrows next to their name. I believe this means they are better suited to a lower league. Yet, the AI won't demote them. In a test league, I eliminated all restrictions (roster size, service time, etc.) and also added a third minor league (A). Yet, it still shows players with down arrows. Any thoughts?

04-04-2017, 05:52 PM	#3
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	Those are the MiL Manager suggestions. Even when you let your assistant gm handle that stuff, the green and red arrows still exist. they disagree with anyone making the decision - sometimes falsely, sometimes for good reason. needs investigation. (i'd suggest only worrying about hte 'better' prospects of value to your team or a trade) if you have 100% accurate ratings, ignore the arrows for sure, if you know how thresholds for player's ratings at each level. in that case, you know for sure the results are just bad luck with 100% certainty (again, requires intimate knowledge of your mil system). i think i should have put this one first: are they still developing well? check scouting reports to easily see a trend in ratings changes. if he gained a chunk since april and hit .200, why would you move him? Good development trumps results with a low confidence level all day long. remember you are working with incredibly small sample sizes during a season... 2months is easy to produce a .190 hitter who is a possible future HoF goat or simply just a very well-rated player for that league. use them like any other feedback that is purposefully inaccurate a portion of the time. you need to know a baseline slash / era for each minor leauge whichever stats you like, not suggesting those are "it"... so, make sure to auto-calc your minors on their opening day and heed that estimated slash line in LEague settigns->Stats and AI page. if you do this, average players will be average slash, in general. per player this deviates quite a bit any year (any small sample) if anywhere near average, they are probably okay. just like a guy in the MLB hits .255 can hit .200 for a season or maybe .300, same idea. the following is relative to having ratings on and using htem as the first priority: i think default mlb Rookie is ~.316 BA? guy's bombing .350+ i look into. ~10% above is probably good to go, but still often enough not quite good enough for a promotion that you can't just make this a simple: if x then y decision. if x, maybe y... when it's not 100% accurate info we are working with. wihtout ratings, that's even more unknown, but still similar ideas for different perspectives of playing the game. in my case, stats are a secondary thing to verify better info elsewhere... that's not always the case with ratings on, either... bad scout, cheap scouting budget etc etc... Last edited by NoOne; 04-04-2017 at 06:08 PM.

04-04-2017, 12:19 PM	#2
andyhdz All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Fresno, CA by way of Texas Posts: 1,754	Those arrows are used to give you a rough idea on where the player should be but many people ignore them. Use them as a rough guide and use your own judgement. As you can see even the AI ignores them sometimes but I think it's because of the players above or below them. Run a minor league report and it will also tell you what they think the player is at.

04-04-2017, 06:03 PM	#4
Sam_15 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 252	Another variable in this equation is the talent in the system. Even if a guy is not really suited for his current level, if there's no one below him that's any better, the AI probably won't send him down due to the lack of alternative options.

04-04-2017, 06:12 PM	#5
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	if that's happening alot in your league, i'd bump up player creation per year - draft or int'l or whatever adds young players that you want to bump. i think that has to happen naturally, too, though (in RL too). hopefully the ai prefers to match skill to level - since there's a setting realted to this logic it's not a reach, but i've never looked into this behaviour before, either. (incomplete rosters - can match ability instead of filling top-down - wish that was always an option or always on with complete rostes, lol. i don't want ghost players...) heh... i'm going to try turning ghost players on and since i never have too few players, maybe it's inconsequential and i can take advantage of that AI