PECOTA hates the Cardinals

Orcin · 02-09-2017, 02:19 PM

Since they have the Cardinals rated to finish below .500, I guess anyone playing this team in OOTP18 will have to treat it as a rebuilding project. I have to question some of the individual ratings, such as Carlos Martinez with a 4.20 ERA and Matt Carpenter at 2.4 WAR. I don't understand why these players in particular are projected to regress. I hope the prospects get better treatment or perhaps Cards fans should just skip this version.

Lukas Berger · 02-09-2017, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

Since they have the Cardinals rated to finish below .500, I guess anyone playing this team in OOTP18 will have to treat it as a rebuilding project. I have to question some of the individual ratings, such as Carlos Martinez with a 4.20 ERA and Matt Carpenter at 2.4 WAR. I don't understand why these players in particular are projected to regress. I hope the prospects get better treatment or perhaps Cards fans should just skip this version.

Well, we don't use PECOTA anymore, we use ZIPS

Orcin · 02-09-2017, 02:41 PM

Ok, thanks for pointing that out to me.

Orcin · 02-09-2017, 02:47 PM

ZIPS seems to treat Martinez a lot better (4.2 WAR) and most of the regulars get 2-3 WAR projections. Overall, it seems more realistic to me. Maybe 85 wins?

NoOne · 02-09-2017, 07:09 PM

for some reason carlos isnt' getting as much respect as you think he should get... probably both sides are correct... since he is quite young eh? until it plays out, all possibilities are real. you may prefer one over the other, though. their calculations just point in "this" difrection. (doesn't matter which way)

it's just speculation... and it jsut happens that your favorites aren't looked at with a positive light...

it means alot to the video game, but it doesn't mean much in real life - even if it's the better odds based on history of MLB. they look at various precursors and use a larger baseline of data to guess as to what's going to happen - a poorly educated guess in most instances (although a lot of education or knowledge behind the people setting it up, hopefully).

they've guessed that your team is going downhill. maybe right or wrong, doesn't matter. don't take it personally. it's based on objective facts that in the past have lead to a regression more times than not... that's all it means...

it's not whimsical in nature is all i mean (even if there is plenty of room for improvement in those various caclulations)... zips/pecota are using facts to speculate about the future. how good are they? i never looked into it before. do some research and see how often they are wrong about pitchers with similar facts as martenez's current situation.

if you know their methodology and the info they used... you could postulate about where they are wrong or misguided and make your own speculation from that. these people are looking at the entire league, so a "homer" will possibly have better information on certain things than a national perspective. as with anything... the smaller the sample of data the less useful it is for speculating... being conservative in these situations is demanded! (relative to this situation about a young baseballe maybe-hot-shot - little track record must consider the possbility of being fooled by a small sample of results - plenty of 1-2 year wonders that ended up being crappy players relative to what people "felt" initially)

a "homer" will also more likely not be very objective about their team..... and the bag of nonsense that comes along with that.

Caporegime · 02-09-2017, 07:25 PM

Pecota hates the Cardinals? I wonder what they ever did to him?

Mike D · 02-10-2017, 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caporegime

Pecota hates the Cardinals? I wonder what they ever did to him?

Probably used his name to try and hack a database?

Orcin · 02-10-2017, 09:17 AM

Reading further into the ZIPS detail, they project the Cardinals for 86 wins. That seems about right to me. It should be a fun team to play... just good enough that you don't want to blow it up but you will spend the next 5-10 years looking up at the Cubs if you don't do something.

Westheim · 02-10-2017, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

I hope the prospects get better treatment or perhaps Cards fans should just skip this version.

But even Cards fans could play some fictional again with this version ...

blazertaz13 · 02-10-2017, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

Reading further into the ZIPS detail, they project the Cardinals for 86 wins. That seems about right to me. It should be a fun team to play... just good enough that you don't want to blow it up but you will spend the next 5-10 years looking up at the Cubs if you don't do something.

Which is the appropriate way for the Cards to be looking at the standings.

Orcin · 02-10-2017, 01:57 PM

I don't think the OOTP18 Cardinals will be looking up at the Cubs for long once I take over. The AI will likely destroy the Cubs pretty quickly because it has trouble playing a good hand. It seems hell-bent to fix that which isn't broken via ill-advised trades, bad contracts, and poor player development practices. It would pretty easy to take over the Cubs and win for several years without doing much. The Cards, on the other hand, will require work.

CD360 · 02-10-2017, 07:03 PM

Carpenter's WAR is only low because they have him at first now.

Orcin · 02-10-2017, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CD360

Carpenter's WAR is only low because they have him at first now.

Good point... he wouldn't get much credit for defense there. I could easily see him at 4 WAR if he is healthy, even as a 1B.

CD360 · 02-10-2017, 07:36 PM

Idk. I agree that he's a little low but 4 is what they project for Rizzo. And Carpenter isn't as good as Rizzo.

RMc · 02-10-2017, 08:23 PM

PECOTA hates the Cardinals

Face it: everybody (outside St. Louis) hates the Cardinals!

JMDurron · 02-11-2017, 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RMc

PECOTA hates the Cardinals

Face it: everybody (outside St. Louis) hates the Cardinals!

Red Sox fans have no business hating the Cardinals after 2004 and 2013. That's especially true due to the team opening up the gates of the stadium in Game 4 of the 2004 World Series to let Red Sox fans without tickets in to celebrate the first World Series win in 86. That's a straight-up classy move that puts the organization in a positive light in my eyes.

MizzouRah · 02-11-2017, 09:40 AM

The Cardinals will surprise this year!

Orcin · 02-11-2017, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CD360

Idk. I agree that he's a little low but 4 is what they project for Rizzo. And Carpenter isn't as good as Rizzo.

Rizzo is low too. He has been over 5 for 3 straight seasons.

Orcin · 02-11-2017, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

The Cardinals will surprise this year!

I like the way you think.

chrismeglan · 02-11-2017, 08:16 PM

+1 for Carlos Martinez winning a Cy Young award one of these years. Dude is nasty.

02-09-2017, 02:19 PM	#1
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,879	PECOTA hates the Cardinals Since they have the Cardinals rated to finish below .500, I guess anyone playing this team in OOTP18 will have to treat it as a rebuilding project. I have to question some of the individual ratings, such as Carlos Martinez with a 4.20 ERA and Matt Carpenter at 2.4 WAR. I don't understand why these players in particular are projected to regress. I hope the prospects get better treatment or perhaps Cards fans should just skip this version.

02-09-2017, 07:09 PM	#5
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	for some reason carlos isnt' getting as much respect as you think he should get... probably both sides are correct... since he is quite young eh? until it plays out, all possibilities are real. you may prefer one over the other, though. their calculations just point in "this" difrection. (doesn't matter which way) it's just speculation... and it jsut happens that your favorites aren't looked at with a positive light... it means alot to the video game, but it doesn't mean much in real life - even if it's the better odds based on history of MLB. they look at various precursors and use a larger baseline of data to guess as to what's going to happen - a poorly educated guess in most instances (although a lot of education or knowledge behind the people setting it up, hopefully). they've guessed that your team is going downhill. maybe right or wrong, doesn't matter. don't take it personally. it's based on objective facts that in the past have lead to a regression more times than not... that's all it means... it's not whimsical in nature is all i mean (even if there is plenty of room for improvement in those various caclulations)... zips/pecota are using facts to speculate about the future. how good are they? i never looked into it before. do some research and see how often they are wrong about pitchers with similar facts as martenez's current situation. if you know their methodology and the info they used... you could postulate about where they are wrong or misguided and make your own speculation from that. these people are looking at the entire league, so a "homer" will possibly have better information on certain things than a national perspective. as with anything... the smaller the sample of data the less useful it is for speculating... being conservative in these situations is demanded! (relative to this situation about a young baseballe maybe-hot-shot - little track record must consider the possbility of being fooled by a small sample of results - plenty of 1-2 year wonders that ended up being crappy players relative to what people "felt" initially) a "homer" will also more likely not be very objective about their team..... and the bag of nonsense that comes along with that. Last edited by NoOne; 02-09-2017 at 07:19 PM.

02-09-2017, 07:25 PM	#6
Caporegime All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: The Borough of Kings Posts: 1,713	Pecota hates the Cardinals? I wonder what they ever did to him? __________________ "If you don't know where you are going, you'll wind up someplace else." - Lawrence Peter Berra

02-10-2017, 08:23 PM	#15
RMc All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 1,717	PECOTA hates the Cardinals Face it: everybody (outside St. Louis) hates the Cardinals! __________________ "We're all behind our baseball team..."

02-09-2017, 02:41 PM	#3
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,879	Ok, thanks for pointing that out to me.

02-09-2017, 02:47 PM	#4
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,879	ZIPS seems to treat Martinez a lot better (4.2 WAR) and most of the regulars get 2-3 WAR projections. Overall, it seems more realistic to me. Maybe 85 wins?

02-10-2017, 09:17 AM	#8
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,879	Reading further into the ZIPS detail, they project the Cardinals for 86 wins. That seems about right to me. It should be a fun team to play... just good enough that you don't want to blow it up but you will spend the next 5-10 years looking up at the Cubs if you don't do something.

02-10-2017, 01:57 PM	#11
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,879	I don't think the OOTP18 Cardinals will be looking up at the Cubs for long once I take over. The AI will likely destroy the Cubs pretty quickly because it has trouble playing a good hand. It seems hell-bent to fix that which isn't broken via ill-advised trades, bad contracts, and poor player development practices. It would pretty easy to take over the Cubs and win for several years without doing much. The Cards, on the other hand, will require work.

02-10-2017, 07:03 PM	#12
CD360 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 72	Carpenter's WAR is only low because they have him at first now.

02-10-2017, 07:36 PM	#14
CD360 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 72	Idk. I agree that he's a little low but 4 is what they project for Rizzo. And Carpenter isn't as good as Rizzo.

02-11-2017, 09:40 AM	#17
MizzouRah Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Troy, Mo Posts: 6,266	The Cardinals will surprise this year!

02-11-2017, 08:16 PM	#20
chrismeglan Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 77	+1 for Carlos Martinez winning a Cy Young award one of these years. Dude is nasty.