He got paid, he stopped producing

[old fat bald guy]

Is this actually in the game?

I have a young (fictional) outfielder who was a stud until his contract extension kicked in and he went from the minimum to over $5 million. First three full ML seasons, an excellent and consistent hitter -- a total of 678 hits and and OPS rising from .874 to .894 to .911. Fourth season, 93 games in, he's at .689. He's hitting .271; the worst of those previous three full seasons was .337. His ratings have dropped, too. (I use the 1-100 scale so maybe I'm noticing small increments, but they're down.)

I have several guys who are having bad seasons, so maybe he's not getting as many good pitches to hit, but ... wow.

There's nothing in his BNN personality ratings to explain this. His desire to win and intelligence are high and everything else is normal.

[Marsupilami]

compare B Harper rl 2015 and 2016. nuff said

[NoOne]

a random talent change can occur... probably small percentage at each 'step' in the development (e.g. despite our choices for scouting updates, if you turn it to 100% you'll see it updates ratings weekly or some specific amount of time).

it might be part of "handle success" personality rating... multiple factors can create a 'push' in a general direction, but the opposite can still happen even when that is the case. definitely play the odds, of course

it's also possible the scout is wrong and the guy is just having a bad year. since you have 3 years of track record, i'd be willing to give the guy a leash if he isn't approaching 30... i don't keep those guys around long, but each to their own.

several players? check leage-wide stats at the end of the season... if the slash and resulting era is lower than your league historically has, then it could just be a down time-period for talent. if you don't like that, you cna click auto-calc in League Settings->Stats and AI on the right side for your league total modifiers. do it once 25-man rosters are set - opening day before any games have started. it's safe to do any MiL leagues that start around ML opening day.

if you don't click auto-calc often, i'd look at that recent history since you last clicked... after you click auto-calc, if you think the current league is too far from 'average' then make an additional conservative adjustment to the corresponding LTM.

[ttaka808]

Unfortunate, but it happens irl as well

[thorpegiovanni]

Pretty much the story of 1/4 of Major leaguers. You get paid, you stop worrying about your career.

[old fat bald guy]

Originally Posted by NoOne

it might be part of "handle success" personality rating...

Innnteresting. I didn't know about that rating.

Yeah, I'm definitely letting him try to play through it. He's 25. We're a small-market team and he's the one star player who has signed long-term instead of giving me the "not willing to talk until the last year of my contract" line that is the OOTP equivalent of "I think we should see other people."

He's my right fielder, and I'm pretty sure I'm losing my left fielder after this season, my second baseman after next season and my third baseman the year after that. This guy is the cornerstone.

[RchW]

I can't visualize any situation where LTM's would influence individual player results.

[actionjackson]

"You pays your money and you takes your chances". It's baseball. Nothing is certain.

[polydamas]

It could be a false attribution. Maybe he got off to a cold start and it got in his head (check his handle critics maybe?) or maybe his swing developed an odd hitch in the offseason (Random Talent Change) or maybe he has a new hitting coach who made him change his swing (again Random Talent Change, but coaches can effect development).

[old fat bald guy]

Same hitting coach, but I'm learning a lot about hidden ratings here. Thanks, guys.

Another thing that has been interesting about this is that he is still consistent, just at a much lower level. I think that snowflake might have appered next to his name once all season. He has an awful lot of one-hit games.

[Let'sGoBraves]

Does his last name happen to be Uggla? Most epic collapse I can remember IRL. As a Braves fan it's hard to forget. BJ Upton sucked before we dumped 55 million into him so he doesn't count. Uggla stings a little. Every team in baseball would have given him the same contract.

[jeffw3000]

Originally Posted by Let'sGoBraves

Does his last name happen to be Uggla? Most epic collapse I can remember IRL. As a Braves fan it's hard to forget. BJ Upton sucked before we dumped 55 million into him so he doesn't count. Uggla stings a little. Every team in baseball would have given him the same contract.

That is why my Pirates thought they were pulling a fast one when they drafted Bryan Bullington over BJ Upton in 2004, not to mention them passing on Prince Fielder and Zack Greinke, because everyone new how good Bryan Bullington would be.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by jeffw3000

That is why my Pirates thought they were pulling a fast one when they drafted Bryan Bullington over BJ Upton in 2004, not to mention them passing on Prince Fielder and Zack Greinke, because everyone new how good Bryan Bullington would be.

Not as easy as it looks is it? Stephen Strasburg, Dustin Ackley (CF), Donovan Tate (CF), Tony Sanchez, Matt Hobgood, Zack Wheeler, Mike Minor, Mike Leake, Jacob Turner, Drew Storen, Tyler Matzek, Aaron Crow, Grant Green, Matt Purke, Alex White, Bobby Borchering, A.J. Pollock (CF), Chad James, Shelby Miller, Chad Jenkins, Jiovanni Mier, Kyle Gibson, Jared Mitchell (CF), and Randall Grichuk (has played some CF in MLB, not well, but has played it) all say "Hi!". All of them were taken ahead of Mike Trout in 2009. Some have worked out better than others, but none of them worked out as well as Mr. Trout, who was not only the 25th player taken overall that year, but the 6th centre fielder.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by RchW

I can't visualize any situation where LTM's would influence individual player results.

yeah, how could LTMs and LTs, the basis from which we can alter and manipulate statistical results, be relevant?

it's all relative...

.230 could be 20% below what he 'should' do, or it might only be 5% below what he 'should' do relative to the baseline for the league. since he mentioned multiple players having bad offensive or pitching years, i forget and which doesn't change the logic of it all, it could easily by statistical drift and the seeming nosedive is more a cause of the environment (ltm/lt) changing and not the player.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by old fat bald guy

Innnteresting. I didn't know about that rating.

Yeah, I'm definitely letting him try to play through it. He's 25. We're a small-market team and he's the one star player who has signed long-term instead of giving me the "not willing to talk until the last year of my contract" line that is the OOTP equivalent of "I think we should see other people."

He's my right fielder, and I'm pretty sure I'm losing my left fielder after this season, my second baseman after next season and my third baseman the year after that. This guy is the cornerstone.

don't let that message dishearten you.... i don't recall a player ever negotiating before their last contract year.

he may still be willing to extend for cheaper than FA.... that really depends on your league, too. if you see players demand 40, and get low 20's... you know never to pay someone that much when you extend them because they can't get it in FA... know what's likely in FA and you can make easy decisions when you extend someone. letting someone hit FA can save you money in many instances. it's less certain than extending the guy, obviously... if it's only a couple million you may not want to risk it... but 5, 10+ million and it's worth it.

you definitely have to hitch yourself to a young stud in a small market when the opportunity arises.... i'd just wait for something closer to trout or cabrera than a 700-800ops type guy. then again, that might be top-end resutls in your league.. i am assuming more closer to 2016 defautls with 4900 hrs and such for the league totals.

i can find cheap obp guys... but cheap bombers K 200+ times a year or are so inconsistent batting that it becomes more about luck of when they accidentally hit a homerun and the rest of the time they are worthless. their weaknesses are that much more of a problem when relied about to produce rbi.

[zappa1]

Maybe it's just coincidence.

[old fat bald guy]

Originally Posted by NoOne

don't let that message dishearten you.... i don't recall a player ever negotiating before their last contract year. .

This guy did. Signed a long-term deal that escalated so he was affordable early on and the owner is stuck with the expenditure later. I'm starting to think a lot of this game is about backing your owner into a corner and shaking him down.

Here's what happens to me, with a small-market team. When a guy waits until his contract year to talk, he's gone from the future budget. Guys who are arbitration eligible or have option years are accounted for in next season's budget, but guys who can walk aren't. If a guy is in next season's budget at a $5 million estimate in his last arbitration year and he wants a two-year contract for $7 million, that only requires $2 million from "money for extensions" because the first $5 million for next season was already in there. If he's an FA after the season it requires $7 million from "money for extensions" and the owner is already picking out his next boat.

So right now I'm looking at "money for extensions -- none" and the left fielder wants $24 million. I'll make the qualifying offer and take the draft pick, but the Sacramento Royales fan base better get used to the idea of life without Jake Walker.