Question about scout opinions

ForeverRoyalKC · 11-25-2016, 09:40 PM

I am taking the 2016 - 17 Atlanta Braves and just hired an excellent scout. I am finding his opinions are vastly different than the OSA scouting reports. For example, the Braves (AI) 2016 first round pick is a CF. OSA had him as a 5 star player and my newly hired scout sees him as a 3 star. I also find that OSA and my new scout have vast differences on particular subjects sometimes like Contact, Power, etc.
My question is who do I trust? Should I absolutely trust my new Excellent rated scout and how he sees the prospects as not so special as OSA does?

TuckerDuckson · 11-25-2016, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ForeverRoyalKC

I am taking the 2016 - 17 Atlanta Braves and just hired an excellent scout. I am finding his opinions are vastly different than the OSA scouting reports. For example, the Braves (AI) 2016 first round pick is a CF. OSA had him as a 5 star player and my newly hired scout sees him as a 3 star. I also find that OSA and my new scout have vast differences on particular subjects sometimes like Contact, Power, etc.
My question is who do I trust? Should I absolutely trust my new Excellent rated scout and how he sees the prospects as not so special as OSA does?

It's mainly subjective, I use take both in stride because it is up to the player to develop into the player the scouts have set for him, with both ratings he could end up failing and flaming out.

In my experience, the player develops more to OSA's standards with a dash of your scout's report too. So if you find a guy who is 5 stars with OSA and ditto with your scout, it is more than likely a superstar.

In this case I would take your scouts word, but still keep that OSA rating in your mind.

'94 EXPOS · 11-28-2016, 09:17 PM

For the most part you will have to trust your scout. His evaluations will be much different than the OSA and most other team's scouts. Obviously, he will miss a lot of the time but if you don't (mostly) follow his lead you won't get the rewards from his insight.

Some picks my scout recommends just don't fit with what I want (ex: a 23 year old college pitcher with horrible stats)....when this occurs I check if my scout has any other decently rated alternatives....failing that I will take a flyer on an OSA highly rated player.

The OSA is a general scouting tool that can be best described as 'average'. It won't miss the blue chippers but is not overly trustworthy. I also often use it to compare ratings to a diamond in the rough that my scout has found. The variances or lack thereof can sometimes provide some clues.

Also, if you switch scouts in a couple of years you will see your minor league system get turned upside down in one day! Especially if the new scout is opposite of the old one in preferences (tools vs ability)

NoOne · 11-30-2016, 02:23 PM

think about what goes into ratings. ignoring overall/potential, so we don't have to get into stats with ai evaluation.

scouting accuracy
scouting budgets - MiL / MLB etc.. all different budgets.
the scout

*timing of scouting reports - just an update of ratings, though, so in this context ingored.

nothing else, right? so, these are the three factors you must consider.

i make some basic assumptions about the OSA. I assume it's a league baseline - i.e. baseline scouting ability, baseline scouting budget.

So, what is your scouting budget compared to baseline? how good is your scout compared to average?

----

anyway simply put, if you spend more than baseline and have a "better" scout, then your scout's assessment has a greater probability of being more realistic... The osa should be viewed as a secondary tool, if this is the case. vice versa if the shoe is on the other foot. if the differences are negligible, then treat them equally.

use any difference as a red flag... relative to the concept expressed in the previous paragraph. that will dictate how you react to the discrepancy and which you should trust more (think betting on craps, play the odds, there is no such thing as "being due"). in general, the younger the age/less service time, the lower the probability of accurate ratings. so, be more maleable for the kids.

even with overspending on scouting and a legendary scout:
there will be many 18-20 year olds that you simply will not know if they are actually worthwhile or not. A few will still be figments or hidden to you until they play a few years in the majors. older players that you draft should experience scouting corrections sooner after being drafted, than the younger ones. age is definitely a factor along with service time. what else would they scale that effect to i the code?

***

I also think about how they apply inaccuracy to the ratings... this is why i do not suggest averaging the osa and your scout when there is a difference... it would take a very very rare situation in which that works out that way.

they likely have 2 steps, a) % chance of being inaccurate (some way of selection or all, but % split between different degrees of inaccuracy), then b) a random amount of inaccuracy applied within a specified range -- possibly proportional possibly a specific value, it doesn't matter much in this context. maybe it's per player, maybe it's per ratings, maybe there are some sort of profiles it alots in certain proportions... no matter what it's performing the 2 basic things i mentioned. how it disperses it and to what degree.

so, one being accurate or not is comeplete exlcusive of the other (OSA and your Scout). so, don't average the numbers, that's based on fallacious reasoning that they are somehow dependent on each other during the process of apply inaccuracy. i see examples of each so i cannot say it favors one or the other (scout right, osa wrong .. scout wrong, osa right ... both wrong). unless you study it, i'd operate on the idea that it happends in random proportions as opposed to one more than the others and nothing to do with the resulting split between the two.

because all of this is actually defined, you can figure it out. you can know based on settings and budgets etc that the most a player can be under / overrated is X% or +/-X of their actual rating. good luck on that venture if you do.

ForeverRoyalKC · 11-30-2016, 08:40 PM

I was going through a lot of my prospects and my scout and OSA was about as far apart as you can get! One prospect was rated a FIVE star by OSA. The same prospect was rated ONE AND A HALF by my newly hired scout. Yeah, I think there's just a wee bit of a gap there!

ForeverRoyalKC · 11-30-2016, 08:46 PM

I was going through a lot of my prospects and my scout and OSA was about as far apart as you can get! One prospect was rated a FIVE star by OSA. The same prospect was rated ONE AND A HALF by my newly hired scout. Yeah, I think there's just a wee bit of a gap there!

'94 EXPOS · 11-30-2016, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ForeverRoyalKC

I was going through a lot of my prospects and my scout and OSA was about as far apart as you can get! One prospect was rated a FIVE star by OSA. The same prospect was rated ONE AND A HALF by my newly hired scout. Yeah, I think there's just a wee bit of a gap there!

That is your scout saying "others think this guy is going to be a star...I am not convinced...not impossible that he does not develop but I don't think it will happen"

Now you have to ask who do you trust, your scout or the OSA? See No One's post above. If it's a 1st rounder I wouldn't touch the guy....if it's the 18th round maybe I take a flyer on him

11-25-2016, 09:40 PM	#1
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,223	Question about scout opinions I am taking the 2016 - 17 Atlanta Braves and just hired an excellent scout. I am finding his opinions are vastly different than the OSA scouting reports. For example, the Braves (AI) 2016 first round pick is a CF. OSA had him as a 5 star player and my newly hired scout sees him as a 3 star. I also find that OSA and my new scout have vast differences on particular subjects sometimes like Contact, Power, etc. My question is who do I trust? Should I absolutely trust my new Excellent rated scout and how he sees the prospects as not so special as OSA does?

11-30-2016, 02:23 PM	#4
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	think about what goes into ratings. ignoring overall/potential, so we don't have to get into stats with ai evaluation. scouting accuracy scouting budgets - MiL / MLB etc.. all different budgets. the scout timing of scouting reports - just an update of ratings, though, so in this context ingored. nothing else, right? so, these are the three factors you must consider. i make some basic assumptions about the OSA. I assume it's a league baseline - i.e. baseline scouting ability, baseline scouting budget. So, what is your scouting budget compared to baseline? how good is your scout compared to average? ---- anyway simply put, if you spend more than baseline and have a "better" scout, then your scout's assessment has a greater probability of being more realistic... The osa should be viewed as a secondary tool, if this is the case. vice versa if the shoe is on the other foot. if the differences are negligible, then treat them equally. use any difference as a red flag... relative to the concept expressed in the previous paragraph. that will dictate how you react to the discrepancy and which you should trust more (think betting on craps, play the odds, there is no such thing as "being due"). in general, the younger the age/less service time, the lower the probability of accurate ratings. so, be more maleable for the kids. even with overspending on scouting and a legendary scout: there will be many 18-20 year olds that you simply will not know if they are actually worthwhile or not. A few will still be figments or hidden to you until they play a few years in the majors. older players that you draft should experience scouting corrections sooner after being drafted, than the younger ones. age is definitely a factor along with service time. what else would they scale that effect to i the code? ** I also think about how they apply inaccuracy to the ratings... this is why i do not suggest averaging the osa and your scout when there is a difference... it would take a very very rare situation in which that works out that way. they likely have 2 steps, a) % chance of being inaccurate (some way of selection or all, but % split between different degrees of inaccuracy), then b) a random amount of inaccuracy applied within a specified range -- possibly proportional possibly a specific value, it doesn't matter much in this context. maybe it's per player, maybe it's per ratings, maybe there are some sort of profiles it alots in certain proportions... no matter what it's performing the 2 basic things i mentioned. how it disperses it and to what degree. so, one being accurate or not is comeplete exlcusive of the other (OSA and your Scout). so, don't average the numbers, that's based on fallacious reasoning that they are somehow dependent on each other during the process of apply inaccuracy. i see examples of each so i cannot say it favors one or the other (scout right, osa wrong .. scout wrong, osa right ... both wrong). unless you study it, i'd operate on the idea that it happends in random proportions as opposed to one more than the others and nothing to do with the resulting split between the two. because all of this is actually defined, you can figure it out. you can know based on settings and budgets etc that the most a player can be under / overrated is X% or +/-X of their actual rating. good luck on that venture if you do. Last edited by NoOne; 11-30-2016 at 02:45 PM.

11-28-2016, 09:17 PM	#3
'94 EXPOS Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 323	For the most part you will have to trust your scout. His evaluations will be much different than the OSA and most other team's scouts. Obviously, he will miss a lot of the time but if you don't (mostly) follow his lead you won't get the rewards from his insight. Some picks my scout recommends just don't fit with what I want (ex: a 23 year old college pitcher with horrible stats)....when this occurs I check if my scout has any other decently rated alternatives....failing that I will take a flyer on an OSA highly rated player. The OSA is a general scouting tool that can be best described as 'average'. It won't miss the blue chippers but is not overly trustworthy. I also often use it to compare ratings to a diamond in the rough that my scout has found. The variances or lack thereof can sometimes provide some clues. Also, if you switch scouts in a couple of years you will see your minor league system get turned upside down in one day! Especially if the new scout is opposite of the old one in preferences (tools vs ability)

11-30-2016, 08:40 PM	#5
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,223	I was going through a lot of my prospects and my scout and OSA was about as far apart as you can get! One prospect was rated a FIVE star by OSA. The same prospect was rated ONE AND A HALF by my newly hired scout. Yeah, I think there's just a wee bit of a gap there!

11-30-2016, 08:46 PM	#6
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,223	I was going through a lot of my prospects and my scout and OSA was about as far apart as you can get! One prospect was rated a FIVE star by OSA. The same prospect was rated ONE AND A HALF by my newly hired scout. Yeah, I think there's just a wee bit of a gap there!