Who wins the Cy Young?

BuenoWaino · 08-18-2016, 09:13 PM

So there are two pitchers. Both finished in the top 3 last year (winner went down with TJ early in the season), and both have amazingly taken a step forward this year. And I have no clue who is more deserving. Personally it looks like a coin flip to me, but what do you guys think?

Jason "Monument" Lyles vs Mike "Lunatic" McFarland
GS: 32 vs 31
Record: 26-4 vs 17-4
IP: 233.2 vs 207
ERA: 2.04 vs 1.91
ER: 53 vs 44
HRA: 12 vs 10
BB: 40 vs 42
K: 330 vs 326
WHIP: 0.81 vs 0.84
HR/9: 0.5 vs 0.4
BB/9: 1.5 vs 1.8
K/9: 12.7 vs 14.2
BABIP: .278 vs .296
ERA+: 207 vs 223
FIP: 1.98 vs 1.65
WAR: 10.6 vs 10.5

More Wins, K's, IPs, better WHIP, fewer BB's for Lyles, but better K/9, HR/9, significantly better FIP and the shinier ERA for McFarland, and doing it with a slightly higher BABIP. WAR is so close that it doesn't really matter. Don't know who should win, but I do know both guys are kicking themselves for signing extensions before the start of this season.

NYYANKS98 · 08-18-2016, 11:33 PM

Honestly even though a lot seems to point towards #2, I feel the stats are overall so close and some of his advantages are brought down by a significantly higher walk rate and less IP, that I have to go with #1. Yes, wins shouldn't be important but when a guy puts up almost as dominant numbers in 25 more innings (which leads to an equal WAR despite worse peripherals) while winning 9 more games, I think you have to give him the award. Just my personal opinion

JMDurron · 08-18-2016, 11:37 PM

If you removed the first 3 lines of stats, I'd go with McFarland. That being said...26 additional innings of value AND a full 9 more wins for Lyles trumps the deeper stats that say more about how the players might do relative to each other next year than what outcomes were actually produced this year (BABIP, FIP, ERA+). Looks like McFarland had to go to Ks to overcome his defense (BABIP), which shows up in FIP as well, and those Ks led to shorter outings.

I'd give it to Lyles.

koohead · 08-18-2016, 11:42 PM

My vote would be for Lyles. All the other stats are pretty equal...the more wins does it for me.

wsenkow · 08-19-2016, 12:46 AM

I don't know which one deserves it more, but look forward to the result.

I changed my mind, Lyles.., lol. Good points by all the other posters.

Germaniac · 08-19-2016, 02:58 AM

Lyles ... no doubt about it. 26 wins vs 17 with a slightly higher ERA would do it for me

BigRed75 · 08-19-2016, 05:26 AM

I would be curious to know - what was the team's records in their starts?

McFarland got nine less decisions than Lyles...why was that? Bad luck? Bailed out by his bullpen? Screwed over by his bullpen? I'd have to know more before I could really say, because the others stats are pretty darn close.

Silfir · 08-19-2016, 06:33 AM

The last time an MLB pitcher has won that many games in a season was 1990's Bob Welch, with 27. He had three more starts than Lyles did, too, a 2.96 ERA and less than half his strikeouts, a measly 127, and a WAR of 3.0. 19 of his wins were saved by Dennis Eckersley, who posted an ERA+ of 603. (And an actual ERA of 0.63.)

In the voting, he was up against Roger Clemens, with a 1.96 ERA, 209 strikeouts and a still impressive 21 wins and a WAR of 10.6.

Welch won - I'm assuming solely because it's become just that rare for a pitcher to get 25 wins or more with modern-day pitching. Or maybe it was because Clemens already had two Cy Youngs and an MVP and everyone rightfully assumed he'd be dominant for years to come, so people were looking for a reason to give it to an underdog that year, even if that underdog had help from a brilliant closer and Lady Fortune herself. I was two years old at the time, lived in Germany, and would go on for another twenty-three years not knowing the rules to baseball, so no idea.

Considering that Lyles was a legitimately dominant pitcher himself while reaching the milestone, I'd say he probably ought to win it.

oriolesmeep · 08-19-2016, 05:25 PM

McFarland. He had the much more dominant season by both K-9 and FIP, still threw over 200 innings, and W-L are useless, particularly with comparing pitchers.

bwburke94 · 08-19-2016, 06:17 PM

I know pitcher wins are overrated in CY voting, but I can't not give it to the guy who won 26.

NoOne · 08-19-2016, 11:21 PM

I'd go with lyles... when forced to choose. this is a great example of it being too close to call which is actually better.

they are pretty similar. one goes deeper in games and walks less people, at least during this season. the other guy has a clear edge in is K/9, but ~12 per 9 is elite, too.

between the bigger differences, i'd rather a guy pitch more.. but it's a flip of a coin, regardless.

thirdsaint · 08-22-2016, 10:23 AM

Lyles is my vote too. Pitching 26 more innings and accumulating pretty identical statistics in most places while piling up the wins is just better. Lyles also appears to have gone way deeper in games by almost an inning on average start than the other guy. That has to factor too.

08-18-2016, 11:42 PM	#4
koohead Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 3,228	My vote would be for Lyles. All the other stats are pretty equal...the more wins does it for me. __________________ GM - New Jersey Bears of the NPBL;

08-19-2016, 12:46 AM	#5
wsenkow Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 121	I don't know which one deserves it more, but look forward to the result. I changed my mind, Lyles.., lol. Good points by all the other posters. Last edited by wsenkow; 08-19-2016 at 03:11 AM.

08-19-2016, 02:58 AM	#6
Germaniac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Frankenthal, Germany Posts: 3,091	Lyles ... no doubt about it. 26 wins vs 17 with a slightly higher ERA would do it for me __________________ I'm going to have to meet my Maker some day. And if He asks me why I didn't let this boy play, and I say it's because he's black, that might not be a satisfactory answer. Happy Chandler, 1947

08-19-2016, 05:26 AM	#7
BigRed75 Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 2,430	I would be curious to know - what was the team's records in their starts? McFarland got nine less decisions than Lyles...why was that? Bad luck? Bailed out by his bullpen? Screwed over by his bullpen? I'd have to know more before I could really say, because the others stats are pretty darn close. __________________ Mainline team SPTT team Was not a Snag fan...until I saw the fallout once he was gone and realized what a good job he was actually doing. - Ty Cobb

08-19-2016, 06:33 AM	#8
Silfir Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 138	The last time an MLB pitcher has won that many games in a season was 1990's Bob Welch, with 27. He had three more starts than Lyles did, too, a 2.96 ERA and less than half his strikeouts, a measly 127, and a WAR of 3.0. 19 of his wins were saved by Dennis Eckersley, who posted an ERA+ of 603. (And an actual ERA of 0.63.) In the voting, he was up against Roger Clemens, with a 1.96 ERA, 209 strikeouts and a still impressive 21 wins and a WAR of 10.6. Welch won - I'm assuming solely because it's become just that rare for a pitcher to get 25 wins or more with modern-day pitching. Or maybe it was because Clemens already had two Cy Youngs and an MVP and everyone rightfully assumed he'd be dominant for years to come, so people were looking for a reason to give it to an underdog that year, even if that underdog had help from a brilliant closer and Lady Fortune herself. I was two years old at the time, lived in Germany, and would go on for another twenty-three years not knowing the rules to baseball, so no idea. Considering that Lyles was a legitimately dominant pitcher himself while reaching the milestone, I'd say he probably ought to win it. Last edited by Silfir; 08-19-2016 at 06:40 AM.

08-18-2016, 09:13 PM	#1
BuenoWaino Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 66	Who wins the Cy Young? So there are two pitchers. Both finished in the top 3 last year (winner went down with TJ early in the season), and both have amazingly taken a step forward this year. And I have no clue who is more deserving. Personally it looks like a coin flip to me, but what do you guys think? Jason "Monument" Lyles vs Mike "Lunatic" McFarland GS: 32 vs 31 Record: 26-4 vs 17-4 IP: 233.2 vs 207 ERA: 2.04 vs 1.91 ER: 53 vs 44 HRA: 12 vs 10 BB: 40 vs 42 K: 330 vs 326 WHIP: 0.81 vs 0.84 HR/9: 0.5 vs 0.4 BB/9: 1.5 vs 1.8 K/9: 12.7 vs 14.2 BABIP: .278 vs .296 ERA+: 207 vs 223 FIP: 1.98 vs 1.65 WAR: 10.6 vs 10.5 More Wins, K's, IPs, better WHIP, fewer BB's for Lyles, but better K/9, HR/9, significantly better FIP and the shinier ERA for McFarland, and doing it with a slightly higher BABIP. WAR is so close that it doesn't really matter. Don't know who should win, but I do know both guys are kicking themselves for signing extensions before the start of this season. Last edited by BuenoWaino; 08-18-2016 at 09:16 PM.

08-18-2016, 11:33 PM	#2
NYYANKS98 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 128	Honestly even though a lot seems to point towards #2, I feel the stats are overall so close and some of his advantages are brought down by a significantly higher walk rate and less IP, that I have to go with #1. Yes, wins shouldn't be important but when a guy puts up almost as dominant numbers in 25 more innings (which leads to an equal WAR despite worse peripherals) while winning 9 more games, I think you have to give him the award. Just my personal opinion

08-18-2016, 11:37 PM	#3
JMDurron All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,262	If you removed the first 3 lines of stats, I'd go with McFarland. That being said...26 additional innings of value AND a full 9 more wins for Lyles trumps the deeper stats that say more about how the players might do relative to each other next year than what outcomes were actually produced this year (BABIP, FIP, ERA+). Looks like McFarland had to go to Ks to overcome his defense (BABIP), which shows up in FIP as well, and those Ks led to shorter outings. I'd give it to Lyles.

08-19-2016, 05:25 PM	#9
oriolesmeep Minors (Double A) Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 103	McFarland. He had the much more dominant season by both K-9 and FIP, still threw over 200 innings, and W-L are useless, particularly with comparing pitchers.

08-19-2016, 06:17 PM	#10
bwburke94 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Belchertown, MA, USA Posts: 4,518	I know pitcher wins are overrated in CY voting, but I can't not give it to the guy who won 26.

08-19-2016, 11:21 PM	#11
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	I'd go with lyles... when forced to choose. this is a great example of it being too close to call which is actually better. they are pretty similar. one goes deeper in games and walks less people, at least during this season. the other guy has a clear edge in is K/9, but ~12 per 9 is elite, too. between the bigger differences, i'd rather a guy pitch more.. but it's a flip of a coin, regardless.

08-22-2016, 10:23 AM	#12
thirdsaint Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: Chicago Posts: 364	Lyles is my vote too. Pitching 26 more innings and accumulating pretty identical statistics in most places while piling up the wins is just better. Lyles also appears to have gone way deeper in games by almost an inning on average start than the other guy. That has to factor too.