Player Stats Crash

josh5981 · 06-14-2016, 07:00 PM

I have a question about the logic in OOTP 17 and how it handles what would appear to be significant variations from prior player performance year over year. I understand there will be natural variations year over year, and past performance is no guarantee of future performance. But it would also seem that, absent some injury or ratings decrease, OOTP would "self-correct" where a consistently good player is performing well off their baseline over an extended period. Here's my example:

I traded for closer Trevor Rosenthal between the 2017 and 2018 seasons. I've pasted his yearly stats below from years 2013 to 2019 (he's pitched 2 full seasons with my Seattle club now). He has had NO injuries during the time I've had him, and he's had NO change to his current pitching ratings since the trade. But as you can see from his stats, he's simply not the same guy that I traded for, and this has played out over 2 years now with a very equivalent IP from prior years. In addition to the stark change in ERA (average mid-2's in the 5 years prior to the trade, to over 4 in his past 2 seasons), he's giving up 2 to 3 times the amount of BB and HR, and his K's have dropped in half.

Like I said, I understand that players decline, but this seems like a pretty dramatic crash and one that I would think OOTP would recognize and a major statistical anomaly and provide some level of error-correction. Maybe I've asking too much of the game, but wondering what others have experienced, and if this is just part of letting the math do it's thing in the back end. Thanks for any responses.

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josh5981 · 06-14-2016, 07:15 PM

And by the way, how do I post a full size screenshot? Thanks.

NoOne · 06-15-2016, 12:53 PM

i use manage attachments, then upload the file. might be settings there or in user CP for the forums about how it functions in the message or as an attachment.... it's a gui so it will be obvious. i just don't recall off the top of my head.

on to the real question:

Edit: what is happening to league-wide stats? this is all relative to "average" so, you'll have to make sure those aren't skyrocketting for some reason. if you leage BA the last couple years is .300 or something, it might be somethign else... but on to the assumption it is more simple than that:

regressing to the mean must happen on it's own. if the game forces somethign like that it is a ... i don't even have the words to describe my angst toward such a thing that would do that and parade itself as a simulation or modelling software. it's beyond deplorable... lazy... unsophisticated.... the "dice" should be rolled each time an event occurs for each factor involved... law of independent results! his degredation is most likely ratings-related based on the info given.

if you are not stats only, look at old scouting reports and his recent development - both found in player profile screen. this is most likely losing talent based on the last 2-years of stats you show. to set your mind at ease, even turn commissioner mode on and look at his REAL ratings and estimated performance (the estimate may not relate to your league.. relate those numbers to what you expect in RL or look at enough pitchers to understand how to translate those estimates to your league's typical stats.

28-29 is very young to decrapitate like that.... maybe you hit the unlucky lottery? if it isn't happening to a ton of players, it's perfectly normal. it can happen anytime after age 28, but shouldn't happen often during ages 28 and 29. (even 30... starts to get sketchy at/after 30)

i use default aging. i get roughly the right number of 38+ players in my league - at least close enough to keep me happy. that's how i choose those settings. maybe you want to base it on frequency of what you are seeing and don't care bout quantity of 40-year olds in your leageu....

find a metric you care about the most that is directly relative to aging... study it... then, alter settings to make it work as you want. LAstly, verify you don't have any unforseen repercussions... sim out quite a few years.... look over thigns you care about.

this guy was bad when seattle got him (you). ignore that ERA for 2018... it's deceptive. so if ratings are the same as when you got him... maybe they were high in previous years and you traded for a known name instead of ratings.... trade for ratings not names

Matt Arnold · 06-15-2016, 01:38 PM

There's enough change from 16/17 to 18/19 that it seems like he actually had a ratings drop. The fact that he's had a 4:1 K:BB ratio go to a 1:1 ratio is the most telling sign, as those numbers should stabilize well within the timeframe, and i would be shocked to see a player without any change in talent have 4 years like his last 4 based on randomness alone.

06-14-2016, 07:00 PM	#1
josh5981 Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 2	Player Stats Crash I have a question about the logic in OOTP 17 and how it handles what would appear to be significant variations from prior player performance year over year. I understand there will be natural variations year over year, and past performance is no guarantee of future performance. But it would also seem that, absent some injury or ratings decrease, OOTP would "self-correct" where a consistently good player is performing well off their baseline over an extended period. Here's my example: I traded for closer Trevor Rosenthal between the 2017 and 2018 seasons. I've pasted his yearly stats below from years 2013 to 2019 (he's pitched 2 full seasons with my Seattle club now). He has had NO injuries during the time I've had him, and he's had NO change to his current pitching ratings since the trade. But as you can see from his stats, he's simply not the same guy that I traded for, and this has played out over 2 years now with a very equivalent IP from prior years. In addition to the stark change in ERA (average mid-2's in the 5 years prior to the trade, to over 4 in his past 2 seasons), he's giving up 2 to 3 times the amount of BB and HR, and his K's have dropped in half. Like I said, I understand that players decline, but this seems like a pretty dramatic crash and one that I would think OOTP would recognize and a major statistical anomaly and provide some level of error-correction. Maybe I've asking too much of the game, but wondering what others have experienced, and if this is just part of letting the math do it's thing in the back end. Thanks for any responses. [IMG][/IMG] Last edited by josh5981; 06-14-2016 at 07:14 PM.

06-15-2016, 12:53 PM	#3
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	i use manage attachments, then upload the file. might be settings there or in user CP for the forums about how it functions in the message or as an attachment.... it's a gui so it will be obvious. i just don't recall off the top of my head. on to the real question: Edit: what is happening to league-wide stats? this is all relative to "average" so, you'll have to make sure those aren't skyrocketting for some reason. if you leage BA the last couple years is .300 or something, it might be somethign else... but on to the assumption it is more simple than that: regressing to the mean must happen on it's own. if the game forces somethign like that it is a ... i don't even have the words to describe my angst toward such a thing that would do that and parade itself as a simulation or modelling software. it's beyond deplorable... lazy... unsophisticated.... the "dice" should be rolled each time an event occurs for each factor involved... law of independent results! his degredation is most likely ratings-related based on the info given. if you are not stats only, look at old scouting reports and his recent development - both found in player profile screen. this is most likely losing talent based on the last 2-years of stats you show. to set your mind at ease, even turn commissioner mode on and look at his REAL ratings and estimated performance (the estimate may not relate to your league.. relate those numbers to what you expect in RL or look at enough pitchers to understand how to translate those estimates to your league's typical stats. 28-29 is very young to decrapitate like that.... maybe you hit the unlucky lottery? if it isn't happening to a ton of players, it's perfectly normal. it can happen anytime after age 28, but shouldn't happen often during ages 28 and 29. (even 30... starts to get sketchy at/after 30) i use default aging. i get roughly the right number of 38+ players in my league - at least close enough to keep me happy. that's how i choose those settings. maybe you want to base it on frequency of what you are seeing and don't care bout quantity of 40-year olds in your leageu.... find a metric you care about the most that is directly relative to aging... study it... then, alter settings to make it work as you want. LAstly, verify you don't have any unforseen repercussions... sim out quite a few years.... look over thigns you care about. this guy was bad when seattle got him (you). ignore that ERA for 2018... it's deceptive. so if ratings are the same as when you got him... maybe they were high in previous years and you traded for a known name instead of ratings.... trade for ratings not names Last edited by NoOne; 06-15-2016 at 01:04 PM.

06-14-2016, 07:15 PM	#2
josh5981 Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 2	And by the way, how do I post a full size screenshot? Thanks.

06-15-2016, 01:38 PM	#4
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 16,237	There's enough change from 16/17 to 18/19 that it seems like he actually had a ratings drop. The fact that he's had a 4:1 K:BB ratio go to a 1:1 ratio is the most telling sign, as those numbers should stabilize well within the timeframe, and i would be shocked to see a player without any change in talent have 4 years like his last 4 based on randomness alone.