3000 hits - automatic hall? - Page 2

DustinthePOWERHOUSE · 03-04-2016, 10:01 AM

My question is why are their WAR's so low. One player barely hit 30 WAR the other barely hit above 50...that seems extremely low.

Hits are definitely a good stat, but I'm guessing advanced stats didn't look so favorably on these guys. Maybe that's why they're not HOF worthy?

joefromchicago · 03-04-2016, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actionjackson

What if a player gets 3,000 hits, but sucks at baserunning/base stealing, and on defense, can't hit for power, can't get on base, and hits into lots of double plays? - does he belong just because he reached the magic 3,000 hit level?

But how would that guy manage to get 3000 hits in the first place? Seriously, if you had a "no-tools" player like that, how would he even get into the lineup often enough to reach 3000 hits? Getting to 3000 means that the player was worth putting in the lineup for a long period of time. I can't imagine someone getting 3000 hits (or even 1000 hits) if the only thing he could do on the field was hit a bunch of singles.

EDIT: I see David Watts said pretty much the same thing. Great minds ...

aslanking · 03-04-2016, 10:14 AM

I agree 100% with Watts and JoefromChicago. No player is getting enough at-bats to come close to 3000 hits unless they are a quality player. Every single MLB player with 3000 hits is an arguable superstar....that is why i maintain that 3000 is AUTOMATIC for induction.

On the two players referenced, i too am astonished by the low WAR....so much so that it makes me question how the WAR is calculated. How does a hitter who hits .300 for 15 seasons have a career WAR of 50?

As for injuries - my setting is OOTP CLASSIC - Normal.

NoOne · 03-04-2016, 10:33 AM

alot of it depends on the league. totals will depend alot on settings.

i didn't catch how many years of history, but only 6 players have topped 3000 hits. if this is 10 years of history, i'd say no way. if it is 6 players in 50+ years i might start leaning the other way.

if you have your league roughly tuned to MLB stat output (whatever that may be), then you can use similar metrics like 3000 hits or 500 homeruns.

i don't look at totals very much. i have an idea about minimum service time, but after that it's all about the rate of accumulating the various stats and how that relates to an "average" player in my league. should they be 25% better than average? 50%? it can keep you consistent and unbiased in selecting players.

re-using another example above:
something as stupid as 493 vs 500hr could have kept mcgriff out of the hall of fame, because alot of people think that way about it. even though 7hr over 18-20 years is nothing. just a few more hanging breaking balls squared up or a few more thrown. with his career sample size it is easy to believe that a 7hr difference could fall in the realm of luck.

i didn't look him up, but i'm pretty sure he is comparable to other players in the HoF, so there is no reason to keep him out under those conditions alone. standards... integrity... somethign the process lacks, so the human condition interferes.

monkeystyxx · 03-04-2016, 11:44 AM

That was my first instinct, and why I decided none of them were worthy.

If they're hitting .322 lifetime and still struggling to get above 4 WAR, it makes me question who ISN'T hitting over .300 lifetime in your league. WAR is only relative to the rest of the league. If his WAR is low, I'd assume it's because the league average is high, meaning he's not all that in comparison.

.322 lifetime is great in the real life MLB, but that doesn't automatically make it brilliant in your league.

What're the league averages over the last 10 years or so? It'll tell you on the League History screen.

Bumstead · 03-04-2016, 11:46 AM

Paul Molitor is in the HOF...he DH'd his last 8 years or something. He was a bad fielder. He wasn't a baseball player, just a hitter. Much like Big Boy in Boston.

actionjackson · 03-04-2016, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bumstead

Paul Molitor is in the HOF...he DH'd his last 8 years or something. He was a bad fielder. He wasn't a baseball player, just a hitter. Much like Big Boy in Boston.

Molitor belongs. Ortiz belongs if you add in his post-season heroics.

aslanking · 03-04-2016, 01:40 PM

Astute observation on the averages. But the league average is 245 to 255 each and every year. The highest batting average for any year was 260.

I think Clark may have the highest lifetime average of any RETIRED player in my league. That's what makes the whole WAR issue wonky to me. I'll post a screen later.

actionjackson · 03-04-2016, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aslanking

Astute observation on the averages. But the league average is 245 to 255 each and every year. The highest batting average for any year was 260.

I think Clark may have the highest lifetime average of any RETIRED player in my league. That's what makes the whole WAR issue wonky to me. I'll post a screen later.

I'll bet dollars to donuts that Gallo was an absolute fencepost on defense given his terrible WAR.

David Watts · 03-04-2016, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bumstead

Paul Molitor is in the HOF...he DH'd his last 8 years or something. He was a bad fielder. He wasn't a baseball player, just a hitter. Much like Big Boy in Boston.

I might be wrong, but something tells me if the DH was never invented, teams would have found a way to keep Molitor's bat in the lineup. I know I'm not wrong in that regards when it come to Ortiz.

jeheinz72 · 03-04-2016, 02:03 PM

I'd go Yes on Clark, no on Gallo

monkeystyxx · 03-04-2016, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aslanking

Astute observation on the averages. But the league average is 245 to 255 each and every year. The highest batting average for any year was 260.

I think Clark may have the highest lifetime average of any RETIRED player in my league. That's what makes the whole WAR issue wonky to me. I'll post a screen later.

That is indeed odd then...

I haven't noticed any odd WAR issues in any of my leagues. In my current league, the batting leader in the last 3 seasons has got 9.4, 8.2 and 4.3 WAR (that last guy was a defensively-challenged SS on an awful team who couldn't catch a cold. Basically Marcus Semien with a bat). League averages have been in the 2.4-2.6 range.

So it doesn't seem to be a blanket "WAR is broken" type issue.

actionjackson · 03-05-2016, 07:18 PM

Would it be possible to post the defensive totals for these two so we can see if that's what's eating their WAR?

NoOne · 03-05-2016, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aslanking

Astute observation on the averages. But the league average is 245 to 255 each and every year. The highest batting average for any year was 260.

I think Clark may have the highest lifetime average of any RETIRED player in my league. That's what makes the whole WAR issue wonky to me. I'll post a screen later.

if that is the case, you most likely have a league that it is difficult to get 3000 hits. assuming aging and all that other stuff is near default or scaled for the league and it's been a fairly static statistical environment etc etc.... i would still look at each player, but 3000 hits isn't going to be denied.

don't worry about WAR - by itself. it is an imperfect assessment based on innaccurate perceptions and weights. so, you use it with as many other metrics that make sense and make your best based on what your HoF requires.

<edit> read other replies after what i replied to:

not saying war is broken. it's merely the sum of its parts, and those parts aren't finely tuned at the moment. it's a stepping stone, if renamed.

Trebro · 03-07-2016, 02:55 AM

It seems to me like for you, 3K hits is HOF auto, so go ahead and put them in.

The game itself is looking at those metrics, which says that your pair of players are lower, generally speaking, than most others currently in the Hall.

Personally, I'm torn, because I get the importance of 3K and a long career, and hitting over .300 the whole time to get there is important to me. But neither really did much beyond "hit a lot of singles." that 26 WAR over a whole career on Gallo is brutal.

To me, they'd be a pass, I think.

Bumstead · 03-07-2016, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

I might be wrong, but something tells me if the DH was never invented, teams would have found a way to keep Molitor's bat in the lineup. I know I'm not wrong in that regards when it come to Ortiz.

Look at Molitor's career. He would never have stayed healthy playing the field. That's one of the reasons teams put him at DH. He would have never approached the "HOF numbers" had he been required to play baseball.

I'm sure Ortiz would have been put at 1B. I mean, he's so large that even if his mitt misses the ball, the ball would hit his body and stop. One just has to wonder if he could bend over far enough to pick it up.

A baseball player does more than hit IMHO. But then again, the HOF keeping Rose out and having some of the criminals in the HOF is just hypocritical, so I don't lose any sleep over who gets in and who doesn't. I do get a kick out of Bonds and McGwire's still denying the steroid usage...funny, last time I saw Bonds his head had shrunk down to almost normal size...now that's weird...

I could go on, but I've humored myself long enough.

Bum

actionjackson · 03-07-2016, 12:53 PM

DH has been a position for 43 seasons in Major League Baseball. Deal with it. Edgar Martinez belongs too, and "The Big Hurt". Their hitting is so good, it overcomes the fact that they spent a majority of their time not playing a defensive position. But that's it for me. By the time Ortiz gets to the Hall, it'll have been in the game for 50 years, with four guys that should be in. Sounds about right to me.

ashantewarrier · 03-07-2016, 01:05 PM

For me, it's not even debatable. How many 3000 hitters are not in the hall of fame IRL? To get to 3K hits is an accomplishment in itself.

ashantewarrier · 03-07-2016, 01:07 PM

Speaking of Ortiz if he gets in the hall of fame, then Bonds and Clemons better get in. Both were hall of fame players before steroids.

joefromchicago · 03-07-2016, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ashantewarrier

How many 3000 hitters are not in the hall of fame IRL?

Four, of whom two are not yet eligible.

03-04-2016, 10:01 AM	#21
DustinthePOWERHOUSE All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Boston Posts: 870	My question is why are their WAR's so low. One player barely hit 30 WAR the other barely hit above 50...that seems extremely low. Hits are definitely a good stat, but I'm guessing advanced stats didn't look so favorably on these guys. Maybe that's why they're not HOF worthy? __________________ Shootin' at the walls of heartache, BANG BANG, I am THE WARRIOR! "It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am"- Ali Wladimir Klitschko will DESTROY you.

03-04-2016, 11:44 AM	#25
monkeystyxx Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 293	That was my first instinct, and why I decided none of them were worthy. If they're hitting .322 lifetime and still struggling to get above 4 WAR, it makes me question who ISN'T hitting over .300 lifetime in your league. WAR is only relative to the rest of the league. If his WAR is low, I'd assume it's because the league average is high, meaning he's not all that in comparison. .322 lifetime is great in the real life MLB, but that doesn't automatically make it brilliant in your league. What're the league averages over the last 10 years or so? It'll tell you on the League History screen. Last edited by monkeystyxx; 03-04-2016 at 11:47 AM.

03-04-2016, 02:03 PM	#31
jeheinz72 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Fresno, CA Posts: 2,164	I'd go Yes on Clark, no on Gallo __________________ Join The Dugout!

03-07-2016, 01:05 PM	#38
ashantewarrier Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Somerset, NJ via Brooklyn, NY Posts: 2,308	For me, it's not even debatable. How many 3000 hitters are not in the hall of fame IRL? To get to 3K hits is an accomplishment in itself. __________________ "I'm not concerned with your liking or disliking me... All I ask is that you respect me as a human being." -Jackie Robinson, #42 Brooklyn Dodgers *"Hitting is better than sex."* - Reggie Jackson

03-07-2016, 01:07 PM	#39
ashantewarrier Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Somerset, NJ via Brooklyn, NY Posts: 2,308	Speaking of Ortiz if he gets in the hall of fame, then Bonds and Clemons better get in. Both were hall of fame players before steroids. __________________ "I'm not concerned with your liking or disliking me... All I ask is that you respect me as a human being." -Jackie Robinson, #42 Brooklyn Dodgers *"Hitting is better than sex."* - Reggie Jackson

03-04-2016, 10:14 AM	#23
aslanking Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 189	I agree 100% with Watts and JoefromChicago. No player is getting enough at-bats to come close to 3000 hits unless they are a quality player. Every single MLB player with 3000 hits is an arguable superstar....that is why i maintain that 3000 is AUTOMATIC for induction. On the two players referenced, i too am astonished by the low WAR....so much so that it makes me question how the WAR is calculated. How does a hitter who hits .300 for 15 seasons have a career WAR of 50? As for injuries - my setting is OOTP CLASSIC - Normal.

03-04-2016, 10:33 AM	#24
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	alot of it depends on the league. totals will depend alot on settings. i didn't catch how many years of history, but only 6 players have topped 3000 hits. if this is 10 years of history, i'd say no way. if it is 6 players in 50+ years i might start leaning the other way. if you have your league roughly tuned to MLB stat output (whatever that may be), then you can use similar metrics like 3000 hits or 500 homeruns. i don't look at totals very much. i have an idea about minimum service time, but after that it's all about the rate of accumulating the various stats and how that relates to an "average" player in my league. should they be 25% better than average? 50%? it can keep you consistent and unbiased in selecting players. re-using another example above: something as stupid as 493 vs 500hr could have kept mcgriff out of the hall of fame, because alot of people think that way about it. even though 7hr over 18-20 years is nothing. just a few more hanging breaking balls squared up or a few more thrown. with his career sample size it is easy to believe that a 7hr difference could fall in the realm of luck. i didn't look him up, but i'm pretty sure he is comparable to other players in the HoF, so there is no reason to keep him out under those conditions alone. standards... integrity... somethign the process lacks, so the human condition interferes.

03-04-2016, 11:46 AM	#26
Bumstead Minors (Double A) Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 117	Paul Molitor is in the HOF...he DH'd his last 8 years or something. He was a bad fielder. He wasn't a baseball player, just a hitter. Much like Big Boy in Boston.

03-04-2016, 01:40 PM	#28
aslanking Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 189	Astute observation on the averages. But the league average is 245 to 255 each and every year. The highest batting average for any year was 260. I think Clark may have the highest lifetime average of any RETIRED player in my league. That's what makes the whole WAR issue wonky to me. I'll post a screen later.

03-05-2016, 07:18 PM	#33
actionjackson Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Toronto, ON Posts: 6,179	Would it be possible to post the defensive totals for these two so we can see if that's what's eating their WAR?

03-07-2016, 02:55 AM	#35
Trebro All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 756	It seems to me like for you, 3K hits is HOF auto, so go ahead and put them in. The game itself is looking at those metrics, which says that your pair of players are lower, generally speaking, than most others currently in the Hall. Personally, I'm torn, because I get the importance of 3K and a long career, and hitting over .300 the whole time to get there is important to me. But neither really did much beyond "hit a lot of singles." that 26 WAR over a whole career on Gallo is brutal. To me, they'd be a pass, I think.

03-07-2016, 12:53 PM	#37
actionjackson Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Toronto, ON Posts: 6,179	DH has been a position for 43 seasons in Major League Baseball. Deal with it. Edgar Martinez belongs too, and "The Big Hurt". Their hitting is so good, it overcomes the fact that they spent a majority of their time not playing a defensive position. But that's it for me. By the time Ortiz gets to the Hall, it'll have been in the game for 50 years, with four guys that should be in. Sounds about right to me.