Have you ever seen a decline this bad?

[Habsfan18]

Former Cy Young winner T.J. Lett is completely washed up at 32. Hell, he was washed up at 30.

T.J. was the ace of Cleveland's staff for multiple seasons before being rewarded with a 6 year, $183,000,000 extension in October 2029.

Then, he sucked. Completely and utterly sucked. No injuries or anything of that nature. His stuff just rapidly dropped. I've never seen anything like it.

A horrible 2030 must have completely shattered his confidence. He was never the same player again. The team then decided to move him into the bullpen for 2031 in which he sucked even worse. And 2032 saw him pitch mostly in AAA.

In the 2033 pre-season, it's clear that he has absolutely no shot in becoming an MLB pitcher again. And Cleveland still owes him $90,000,000 over the course of the next 3 seasons!!

Have you guys ever seen anything like this? Look at his pitch ratings!

[RequiemAnon]

I've seen this happen to both batters and pitchers, though usually batters in my experience. It's always a shame to see them fall of the table so suddenly. Some guys just completely lose their game after a few great seasons. It happens in the real big leagues too. This kind of thing especially sucks when it's your own player who you just shelled out tens of millions to build a franchise around.

[Habsfan18]

Originally Posted by RequiemAnon

I've seen this happen to both batters and pitchers, though usually batters in my experience. It's always a shame to see them fall of the table so suddenly. Some guys just completely lose their game after a few great seasons. It happens in the real big leagues too. This kind of thing especially sucks when it's your own player who you just shelled out tens of millions to build a franchise around.

As a Jays fan I'm having flashbacks of Ricky Romero..

Guy literally forgot how to pitch.

[SaoMagnifico]

Wow, and I thought Strasburg falling off a cliff this season for my Portland Athletics was rough. First-round draft pick in 2015, won the Cy Young in 2016, posted a 5.0 WAR in 2017, and then cratered to a 1.9 WAR in 2018 while seeing a big uptick in his BB/9 rate and a drop in his K/9 rate. He's gone from being an undisputed ace to being an innings-eater.

Hopefully he doesn't follow the same trajectory as your guy, because he's signed through 2023.

[Sam_15]

Once I had a guy in my league, Dai-Lin Zhang. He was a tremendous power hitter...3 straight 50-HR seasons including two where he also hit .290 or higher. He began his decline then when he hit .230ish but still hit 35 dingers. After that year he became a FA and signed a big deal with a new team and hit .210 with about 20 HRs and at that point his skills declined so much he scarcely played in the bigs again, and retired pretty young.

[SaoMagnifico]

Originally Posted by Sam_15

Once I had a guy in my league, Dai-Lin Zhang. He was a tremendous power hitter...3 straight 50-HR seasons including two where he also hit .290 or higher. He began his decline then when he hit .230ish but still hit 35 dingers. After that year he became a FA and signed a big deal with a new team and hit .210 with about 20 HRs and at that point his skills declined so much he scarcely played in the bigs again, and retired pretty young.

Wow, if he'd kept up that performance, he would have been a first-ballot HOFer for sure.

[RequiemAnon]

It's actually relatively rare to see a player putting up great numbers go the distance in OOTP. I mean, every player's best years are generally frontloaded, but even guys who look like true HOF players just collapse sometimes around 32-34.

[jeffw3000]

Originally Posted by Habsfan18

As a Jays fan I'm having flashbacks of Ricky Romero..

Guy literally forgot how to pitch.

As a Pirates fan, nothing I have ever seen resembles Steve Blass. ERA of 3.24 over first 8 seasons, second in Cy Young voting in 1972. ERA in 1973 is 9.85, and he can no longer find the plate. Is out of baseball as a player after 1974 at the age of 32.

Even Steve Blass will tell you he doesn't know what happened.

[OakDragon]

Originally Posted by Habsfan18

As a Jays fan I'm having flashbacks of Ricky Romero..

Guy literally forgot how to pitch.

Barry Zito springs to my mind. Thinking of Zito, it occurs to me to wonder whether or not OOTP has code (either planned or emergent) that can simulate a player that rests on his laurels after getting a fat, long-term contract. What are his personality ratings, out of curiosity?

In your pitcher's case, one thing jumps out at me: his BABIP. He looks like an average pitcher who had a few lucky seasons.

[lightgrenade07]

Barry Zito. Tim Lincecum.

I notice your guy had some pretty high K/9 numbers, and his fastball today is at 85-87 MPH. Did he used to be a power pitcher with a much faster fastball? I'm always wary of starting pitchers with that sort of repertoire - it's the groundball pitchers in my experience who have more staying power, especially if you have a decent infield.

[OakDragon]

Originally Posted by lightgrenade07

Barry Zito. Tim Lincecum.

I notice your guy had some pretty high K/9 numbers, and his fastball today is at 85-87 MPH. Did he used to be a power pitcher with a much faster fastball? I'm always wary of starting pitchers with that sort of repertoire - it's the groundball pitchers in my experience who have more staying power, especially if you have a decent infield.

Oh, god, yes, Tim Lincecum! That is so sad that my mind doesn't even want to admit yet that it's the same thing.

[TuckerDuckson]

I've had Justin Verlander fall so far off a cliff I had to edit his contract away because he was getting paid 23 mill for sub par bullpen work

[Habsfan18]

Thankfully, I play as a league commissioner/fan and don't actually control a team. So this is Cleveland's mess.

Originally Posted by OakDragon

Barry Zito springs to my mind. Thinking of Zito, it occurs to me to wonder whether or not OOTP has code (either planned or emergent) that can simulate a player that rests on his laurels after getting a fat, long-term contract. What are his personality ratings, out of curiosity?

In your pitcher's case, one thing jumps out at me: his BABIP. He looks like an average pitcher who had a few lucky seasons.

That was the first thing I considered. Maybe he cashed in and then basically mailed it in? But then I looked at his personality ratings.

Leader Ability: High
Loyalty: Normal
Desire f. Win: High
Greed: Low
Intelligence: High
Work Ethic: Very High

Maybe the horrible season after the extension, then being moved to the bullpen, really messed up his confidence?

Originally Posted by lightgrenade07

Barry Zito. Tim Lincecum.

I notice your guy had some pretty high K/9 numbers, and his fastball today is at 85-87 MPH. Did he used to be a power pitcher with a much faster fastball? I'm always wary of starting pitchers with that sort of repertoire - it's the groundball pitchers in my experience who have more staying power, especially if you have a decent infield.

I can't recall exactly, but I don't believe he was ever really considered a flamethrower. Threw maybe 90 at most. He definitely lost some of his velocity.

Good examples with Zito and Lincecum. It's true, players can certainly fall off the cliff at any given time.

Originally Posted by TuckerDuckson

I've had Justin Verlander fall so far off a cliff I had to edit his contract away because he was getting paid 23 mill for sub par bullpen work

"It's your game, play it your way."

So, I won't tell you how to play. But I will ask..what's the fun in that? Using the editor for something like that is basically cheating the system. GM's should have to live with decisions, even if they didn't make it themselves. Gives you a challenge!

[rlsimpson2]

As a Reds fan I am having severe Austin Kearns flashbacks. Guy burst onto the scene like he might be a multiple-time All Star but then got injured and forgot how to hit and spent a number of years as a journeyman pinch hitter before finally washing out. It was too bad...I really liked him. Had his jersey and everything.

[Hammercraft]

Originally Posted by RequiemAnon

It's actually relatively rare to see a player putting up great numbers go the distance in OOTP. I mean, every player's best years are generally frontloaded, but even guys who look like true HOF players just collapse sometimes around 32-34.

I kind of expect it now. I won't sign players to long-term contracts, and I usually trade them in their FA season regardless of how good they are. I get what I can for them and move on.

I was playing last night as Cardinals GM and my #1 pitcher had won three straight CYA. He was 26 and I had him extended under a reasonable contract through age 34, but I worried about paying it out if he tanked. He started the season by getting injured for two months, and we were a marginal team to begin with, so I prepared for sell mode. The day he came back off the DL I packaged him with my other highest salary player (an all-star .300 LF) for prospects and brought up kids to take their spot. I nearly rebounded to make the playoffs, and he fell to being a #5 starter for someone else by the end of the season.

I wanted to be loyal to the guy, but business is business. You have to expect guys will fall apart.

But then I looked at his personality ratings

I've gotten into the habit of looking at the leadership and work ethic characteristics for every acquisition. It's as important as potential ability for me.

[BBGiovanni]

Originally Posted by OakDragon

Oh, god, yes, Tim Lincecum! That is so sad that my mind doesn't even want to admit yet that it's the same thing.

I guess there's a slim chance his hip problem really was holding him back, but I think the basic problem is that his changeup isn't that much slower than his fastball any more.

I sometimes wonder if there's something in OOTP that the AI can recognize immediately... while simming out a league before starting to play in it, I noticed that one guy on pace to set the career HR record (who in fact set the single season record) suddenly got benched at age 31 or so, with no visible injury. It was the most dramatic case I'd ever noticed. He went somewhere else and stunk for half a season then retired.

[lightgrenade07]

Check "handles failure" and "handles success."