It's Only a Game, They are Only Numbers...

[camerainmyhand]

At the end of my most recent season, a season in which I Manage Only and play out games in 1-Pitch Mode, in other words I have no control over the moves that the GM makes, my team ended up with the #1 draft pick after a historically bad season (mostly due to tension in the clubhouse).

And this being a historical, random debut league, I was excited to see who was going to be in the draft pool.

And the draft pool is announced with 5 all-time greats:
Mickey Mantle
Zach Wheat
Roger Clemens
Bob Feller
and Clayton Kershaw.

Excellent - this time my GM and Owner are sure to give me a superstar, probably a pitcher because we soooooo desperately need pitching. Oh how great it would be to see Kershaw in a Dodgers uni...or Feller, oh yes...hey, I would even *settle* for Clemens - and ask him to avoid any ointments, shots, or pills...

And with the number 1 pick in the 1983 draft, the Dodgers take....

Tillie Shafer - an infielder with 909 real life plate appearances...

*sigh*

Now granted, he is scouted as 4.5 Potential, but...

I will be over in the corner repeating: they are only numbers, the game doesn't know who these people are...they are only numbers, the game doesn't know...

[r0nster]

get in commissioner mode and override the incompetent GM lol what would be amazing is if that pick became a HOFer then I would be oh me and my big mouth (murphy's law) LOL

[smiller]

Shafer only lasted four seasons and hit .273, and only had 776 ABs. I'd get a new GM.

[NoOne]

so i did a little digging... these percentages can be higher/lower depending on where you look and the year, so don't think of them as absolute. maybe one includes compensation picks in the first, and some separate them etc etc... various decisions on how to calculate them influence results

~66% of first rounders "make" the mlb.
~49% of 2nd rounders
~32% of 3rd-5th rounders
~20% of 6-10
~11% of 11-20

the data gets murky due to rule changes involving fewer rounds in the draft, but round 21+ was 7%.

this data was from 2012 and before. the following data is not based on the same base data - One In Six Picks Will Click On Trek From Draft To Majors - BaseballAmerica.com

3yrs of service (450 games / SP 75 decisions / RP 150 appearances)

~40% - 1st
~16% - supplemental
~16% - 2nd
~10% - 3-5
~7% -- 6-10
~4% -- 11-20
<2% -- 21+

assuming related settings results in these types of averages in game, you have a good idea of what a "good" GM is relative to draft pick success.

if half of your first rounders become regular contributors (not necessarily superstars), you should consider yourself above average. samples size will make this difficult to know unless you have 100's of years of drafting experience. so, don't fret if a single AI gm or a human doesn't do so well in the draft. do worry if it is league-wide for decades. (30coaches - 30 x Years is like you drafting for 90 years.)

this info i hesitate to add, because it is looking at a small window of data, but still gives good concepts about draft success: http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/3/5...-major-leagues

you may be able to improve the percentage of the coin flip compared to an 'average' gm, but you are always a slave to luck.

[Friendly_Beaver]

Originally Posted by camerainmyhand

At the end of my most recent season, a season in which I Manage Only and play out games in 1-Pitch Mode, in other words I have no control over the moves that the GM makes, my team ended up with the #1 draft pick after a historically bad season (mostly due to tension in the clubhouse).

And this being a historical, random debut league, I was excited to see who was going to be in the draft pool.

And the draft pool is announced with 5 all-time greats:
Mickey Mantle
Zach Wheat
Roger Clemens
Bob Feller
and Clayton Kershaw.

Excellent - this time my GM and Owner are sure to give me a superstar, probably a pitcher because we soooooo desperately need pitching. Oh how great it would be to see Kershaw in a Dodgers uni...or Feller, oh yes...hey, I would even *settle* for Clemens - and ask him to avoid any ointments, shots, or pills...

And with the number 1 pick in the 1983 draft, the Dodgers take....

Tillie Shafer - an infielder with 909 real life plate appearances...

*sigh*

Now granted, he is scouted as 4.5 Potential, but...

I will be over in the corner repeating: they are only numbers, the game doesn't know who these people are...they are only numbers, the game doesn't know...

I think my laptop would have flown across the room! Be interesting to see how each player turns out in your universe maybe Tillie Shafer turns into a perrenial all-star and Mantle turns into a Tillie Shafer.

[biggamejrs]

OK, I was interested, so I did some digging. This is what I found on your #1 pick.
Tillie Shafer was born to wealthy California parents who indulged his whim for sports, and he jumped from college to college competing in baseball, track, and rowing. In contrast, from the moment he joined the New York Giants, the shy, good-looking lad from an affluent family was harassed by the hard-nosed veterans, some from the rough-and-tumble old Orioles. Combine this with a lack of playing time and a yearning to be back on the West Coast, and Shafer was continually discontented during his days on a major-league diamond. He left baseball for good at the age of 24 after four unhappy seasons with the Giants.

Though his major-league career was ordinary, Shafer does have one distinction: In the off-season between the 1910 and 1911 seasons, he sailed to Japan to train ballplayers at Keio University; he was the first active major leaguer to do so. Keio produced a training manual from his instructions that it used for decades, recognizing it as John McGraw's methods filtered through Shafer.

That said, I'm thinking, since you are the Dodgers, LA I presume, maybe your Owner and GM wanted the hometown guy. And following this logic and what I read, maybe he will reach his potential since he is playing closer to home.

Eh, I tried.... LOL

article found here : Tillie Shafer | SABR

[camerainmyhand]

Thanks for the data - this just adds to the immersion.

A quick update on Shafer and the others - and then I will try to update at the All-Star Break and then again at the end of the season.

Draft Status:

Pick #1 - Shafer by my Los Angeles Dodgers is with the MLB club and hitting .322 in 143 PA, with 11 SB and 5 CS.

Pick #3 - Mantle by the Expos is with the MLB club and hitting .396 in 117 PAs with 8 HRs.

Pick #4 - Kershaw by the White Sox, but he failed to sign and will return in next year's draft class.

Pick #5 - Feller by the Yankees is with the MLB club and is currently 1-4 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 51.1 IP.

Pick #6 - Wheat by the Texas Rangers is with the MLB club and currently hitting .268 with 3 HRs in 119 PAs.

Pick #9 - Clemens by the Tigers is with the MLB club and is currently 1-4 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 47.0 IP.

[camerainmyhand]

Shafer (2.2 WAR) - 368 PA - .299 AVG. - .397 OBP. - .411 SLG - 22 SB/11 CS - All-Star

Mantle (3.0 WAR) - 238 PA - .327 AVG. - .420 OBP. - .551 SLG. - 11 HR - (missed 4 weeks to injuries)

Feller (3.4 WAR) - 135.2 IP - 5W - 8L - 2.79 ERA. - 1.47 WHIP - All-Star

Wheat (3.1 WAR) - 330 PA - .336 AVG. - .385 OBP. - .546 SLG. - 10HR, 10 SB/7 CS - All-Star

Clemens (1.6 WAR) - 138.1 IP - 7W - 7L - 3.12 ERA - 1.31 WHIP

Additional notes about my team:
- 4th Round Draft Pick (#1, 105 overall) SP Harry Krause has turned in to my ace with a 9-6 record and a 2.86 ERA

- In the past two seasons my Owner/GM has overturned almost the entire roster. There are only 8 players older than 25 on my 40-Man roster. And only 3 players older than 25 on my Active Roster. The past number of seasons there have been disruptive people on the roster that caused VERY LOW morale. This season, the players are complaining about the lack of veteran leadership.

- My team is still very bad; 3rd worst record in the league. But we are on pace to win 9 more games than last year.

My intention is to update this thread at the end of the season.

[thirdsaint]

Originally Posted by camerainmyhand

Shafer (2.2 WAR) - 368 PA - .299 AVG. - .397 OBP. - .411 SLG - 22 SB/11 CS - All-Star

Mantle (3.0 WAR) - 238 PA - .327 AVG. - .420 OBP. - .551 SLG. - 11 HR - (missed 4 weeks to injuries)

Feller (3.4 WAR) - 135.2 IP - 5W - 8L - 2.79 ERA. - 1.47 WHIP - All-Star

Wheat (3.1 WAR) - 330 PA - .336 AVG. - .385 OBP. - .546 SLG. - 10HR, 10 SB/7 CS - All-Star

Clemens (1.6 WAR) - 138.1 IP - 7W - 7L - 3.12 ERA - 1.31 WHIP

Additional notes about my team:
- 4th Round Draft Pick (#1, 105 overall) SP Harry Krause has turned in to my ace with a 9-6 record and a 2.86 ERA

- In the past two seasons my Owner/GM has overturned almost the entire roster. There are only 8 players older than 25 on my 40-Man roster. And only 3 players older than 25 on my Active Roster. The past number of seasons there have been disruptive people on the roster that caused VERY LOW morale. This season, the players are complaining about the lack of veteran leadership.

- My team is still very bad; 3rd worst record in the league. But we are on pace to win 9 more games than last year.

My intention is to update this thread at the end of the season.

Maybe you're GM will draft Kershaw next year then and reunite him with the Dodgers!

[camerainmyhand]

Year One Results

Pick #1 - Shafer: 528 PAs in 116 games (he lost about 6 weeks to two different injuries.)
.303 AVG/.389 OBP/.428 SLG
10 HRs/27SB/13 CS
OPS+ 127
WAR 3.6
Awards - Selected to All-Star game; Platinum Bat at 2B
Team improved by 18 games.

Pick #3 - Mantle: 558 PAs in 131 Games (he lost about 4 weeks due to an injury, he also had one 1-day injury)
.335 AVG (led the NL)/.432 OBP (led the NL)/.549 SLG for a .981 OPS (led the NL)
22 HRs/12 SB/4 CS
OPS+ 171
WAR: 6.6 (Led the NL)
Awards: Platinum Bat in RF; NL Rookie of the Year; NL MVP (but was not an all-star)
Team improved by 2 games.

Pick #4 - Kershaw - DNP
Drafted at pick# 2 in 1983 draft by the Baltimore Orioles. The White Sox with their 2 first round picks, including the one for not signing Kershaw once again recognized potential greatness by drafting SP Carl Hubbell (#5) and SP Juan Marichal (#6).

Pick #5 - Feller: 237.1 IP in 35 Games/35 Games started
10-18 record with a 4.17 ERA giving up 194 BBs (tops in AL) and striking out 270 (10 games of 10+ strikeouts), led the AL in K/9 with 10.24. He threw one 2-hitter.
WHIP: 1.65
ERA+: 108
WAR: 3.2
Team improved by 8 wins.
Awards: Selected to All-Star Game

Pick #6 - Wheat: 594 PAs in 135 Games (injured in the middle of September for 6 weeks - with further complications)
.348 AVG (led the AL)/.397 OBP/.535 SLG
17 HR/19 SB/16 CS
OPS+ 157
WAR: 4.9
Awards: Selected to All-Star team; Platinum Bat in LF; Gold Glove in LF
Team improved by 7 games

Pick #9 - Clemens: 280 IP in 36 Games/36 Games started
15-13 record giving up 92 BBs and striking out 206. (2 games of 10+ Ks and two 3-hitters)
WHIP: 1.20
ERA+ 145
WAR: 4.0
Team improved by 9 games.
No awards.

And as for what my "genius" owner and GM decided to do...they drafted C/LF Carlos Delgado...but we already have a young Gary Carter behind the plate and our outfield is overflowing with young players.

Who did our GM/owner pass up? Jim Thome; 373 game winner Pete Alexander; and real life Cy Young award winner and Rookie of the Year Don Newcombe.

[camerainmyhand]

And I have posted a 10 year review of the league at: 10 years in...