2015 Phillies: A New Plan

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I got to know Vaughn Bryan during the 2017 NLCS when he torched the Phillies en route to winning the NLCS MVP. On August 4th, 2018 in the bottom of the 5th in a game against the Pirates at PNC Park, Vaughn was injured fielding a flyball to CF by Steve Pearce. Four days later Vaughn was diagnosed with a torn labrum and his brief career was over. He had already amassed 6.0 WAR in just under 100 games this season. In addition to the NLCS MVP, his less than 2 year career yielded a ROY and 2 AS appearances. This dude could do everything and already looked to be headed to the HOF. Sadly, he was only able to earn $1,051,000. I'll leave you with a snapshot of his ratings and career stats.

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The Phillies will once again face the Colorado Rockies in a division series. The Phillies advanced to the NLCS in 2017 after defeating the Rockies in 5 games.

Zimmer replaces Fields in the lineup vs lefties. Wieters, Smoak, Carpenter, Flaherty, and Parra make up the rest of the playoff roster. Parra beat out Ceciliani because he is the only other OF that plays good defense in RF. I wish that I would have remembered that I wanted to take one less P. That spot would have gone to CF/SS/PR Roman Quinn.

For the Rockies, Rosell Herrera get starts vs lefties replacing Alex Bregman. C Wilfredo Rodriguez, 1B Rowdy Tellez (51 HR in 2017), OFs Wes Rogers and Eury Perez, and P Ivan Nova fill out the rest of the squad.

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I accidentally simmed game one without watching and the Phils won 10-3.

In game 2, the Phillies jumped out to 4-0 after 2 innings but by the middle of the 6th Colorado had retaken the lead 5-4. A Parra HR in the 6th tied it and a Joseph solo shot with two outs in the 7th put Philadelphia back on top. They would add 4 more and Giles came in to throw a perfect 9th with 2 Ks for a 10-5 final.

I'll post series stats at the end

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The Rockies stay alive with a 9-5 win at home. Alvarez did his usual thing walking only 1 of the 20 batters he faced and keeping the ball in the park but he also had 0 K and everything COL hit was finding the hole. He lasted only 3.1 and gave up 7 runs. Ramos came in and gave up 2 more and it was 9-1 after 5. PHI was able to get the tying run in the on deck circle in the 9th after a Franco 3-run HR (his 3rd of the series) in the 8th but that's as far as the rally would go. Cornelius Randolph (real-life PHI 2015 1st round pick) was PotG going 3-4 with 2 2B.

It looked like it might be a pitchers' duel in game 4 when both teams were scoreless until PHI got 3 unearned runs in the top of the 4th. An error earlier in the inning by Nolan Arenado led to Carpenter's 3-run, 2-out 2B. PHI would score at least 1 in every inning after that and win 12-5. Crawford was PotG and set an NL playoff game recored with 4 runs. He was 3-5 with a HR. Stroman picked up the win allowing 1 run in 6 IP

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The Dodgers beat the Cardinals 3-2 in the NLDS. They improved by 24 to reach 100 wins in 2018. Former Phillie C Geovany Soto (remember him?), 1B/OF Brando Moss, 1B Justin Morneau, IF Corey Seager, OF Curtis Granderson, and P Joe Weiland make up the rest of the playoff roster. The Dodgers rank 1st in MLB in Payroll at just over $220m.

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Latos threw a complete game shutout as the Phillies took game one 8-0. PHI got to LAN SP Zack Greinke for 6 runs in 5 IP. Carpenter got the start at 2B and went 3-4 HR, R, 2 RBI while Mazara was 1-4 with a 3-run HR. Crawford stole home in the game after leading off the bottom of the 7th with a 3B.

In game two, the Phillies didin't get a hit until the 5th and never really figured out SP Martin Viramontes who finishes with a line of 9 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 0 BB, 7 K. Stroman started strong, striking out the side in the 1st and holding LA scoreless through 3 but he only lasted 5 innings and gave up 5 R on 8 H and 2 BB. Yasiel Puig was 3-5 2 2B, HR for the Dodgers and Jhonny Peralta was 3-4 2B, HR.

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Philadelphia's scoreless streak continued in game 3. They now gone 18 innings without a run after getting 8 in the 1st game. This time it was Hyun-Jin Ryu's turn. He went 7 and gave up only 3 H and 1 BB, lowering his postseason ERA to 0.43. Paco Rodriguez and Kenley Jansen finished the job pitching hitless innings each. It was a sloppy game for PHI. A Crawford error led to the 1st run and Alvarez (6 IP, 3 R, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K) hit 3 batters and threw a WP.

Mazara broke the scoreless streak in the top of the 1st with a 2-run HR but the lead was short-lived as Latos gave up 3 in the bottom of the inning. Greinke (7 IP, 3 R) settled down and the Dodgers pounded out 16 hits led by Josh Hamilton who was 4-5 with 2 2B. Mazara added another HR but that was all that the Phillies would get, losing by a final of 8-3.

The Dodgers take the series 4 games to 1 with a 2-1 in game 5. Stroman was pulled after 4 IP, 1 R, and 82 pitches. Tazawa promptly gave up the go-ahead HR to Trayce Thompson. Joe Weiland was the PotG going 8 IP, giving up 1 R and striking out 7.

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The Red Sox win the final two games and beat the Dodgers in 7 to win their 2nd World Series in 3 years. 1B Ji-Man Choi is named MVP after going 15-32 with 0 HR in the series. His triple slash for the 7 games was .469/.541/.563

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First some awards and other stuff

• Yasiel Puig (LAN) and Mike Trout (LAA) win MVPs. JP Crawford finished 3rd
• Henderson Alvarez (PHI) and Brad Boxberger (BOS) win Cy Youngs
• Matt Snyder (STL) and T.J. Collet (BAL) win ROYs
• Tommy Joseph, Eric Hosmer, and JP Crawford win Platinum Sticks
• Dansby Swanson and JP Crawford win GGs
• Roger Clemens was elected to the HOF in his 7th year on the ballot (77.0%). Edgar Martinez dropped off after 10 years on the ballot getting 9.5%
• Jose Pujols hit his 600th HR and Mark Reynolds made it to 300
• Pujols also got his 3000th hit this season
• Craig Kimbrel picked up his 300th save
• Mike Fiers (MIL) throws a no-hitter @ PHI

As for the Phillies, it was a 2nd straight elimination in the NLCS after 100+ win seasons. Here is a quick position by position rundown of how the season went and where we go from here. I forgot to extend manager Sixto Lezcano so AAA manager Casey Kopitzke has been promoted to Philly. He only has an average reputation but his style fits our system.

• C - Joseph just signed for 2 more seasons plus a team option for a 3rd for $7.2m/yr. Wieters won't be back and it will be between Gabriel Lino and Deivi Grullon for the backup spot
• 1B - Hosmer will be back for one more year at $21m. I'll look into signing a RH backup or giving the spot to either Rhys Hoskins (62 MiLB HRs in the last 2 years) or Luis Encarnacion (only 21 and maybe not ready)
• 2B - So far Kopitzke has Swanson starting at 2B which is what I prefer. Carpenter should be a good backup and bench bat
• 3B - Hopefully Franco can hold off Carpenter for this spot too. Franco is signed for the next 3 yrs at a team-friendly $5m/yr
• SS - All set here. Crawford signed an extension through 2026 at $16m/yr. The last 2 are team options. I would like to find a good defensive backup SS who is also good defensively around the rest of the IF
• OF - Mazara is the only sure thing here. The owner wants an upgrade in CF but Fields was OK there last year and is only 27. Fields, Altherr, Zimmer, and Ceciliani will probably fight for the other 2 spots with one getting a bench spot and the other in AAA. Parra will probably make the team as the only one besides Mazara who can play a good RF. An upgrade is a possibility here.
• SP - Alvarez won the Cy Young but my scout says he's a back end starter at best. At $18m/yr until 2021, let's hope that's not the case. Latos is still pretty good and the owner wants him extended. Hopefully for less than the $30m he will make this season. Hernandez (my scout) thinks Stroman is an ace. When trading for him I didn't realize how expensive he gets and that contract could look bad by the end. I have a bunch of home grown pitchers ready at AAA and I think it's time to throw some of them into the rotation and see if any of them stick. I could use a couple cheap innings eaters. Aaron Nola, Severino Gonzalez, Franklin Kilome, and others will fight for the last two spots in the rotation
• Bullpen - Giles, Reed, Garcia, Dunn, Murray, and Ramos are back. I'll once again need to find some relievers on the FA market.

So, to recap, the team will look pretty much like it did last year. I will be looking for a RH 1B/bench bat, a glove-first utility SS/IF, and some relievers. I'll take a look at SPs and OFs but probably won't have much to spend after filling the other holes. If that doesn't work, I'll see who's rebuilding and see if I can make a trade from my already depleted farm system. I do have a few ML-ready prospects with nowhere to play. Maybe I can get something for them

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Not much action over the winter. Zimmerman's 2nd yr is a vesting option (140 games) so it's probably a one year deal. Rookie manager Kopitzke has him platooning at 1B with Hosmer right now. I'm sure neither one of them are happy about that. I probably should have just seen what Hoskins coud do. I also need to start developing some cheap young bullpen arms. These deals push the payroll to about $180m (4th) and accounting tells me that we're projected to lose about $32m this year. They're usually pretty pessimistic this time of year so I'll wait to see what happens and go from there.

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It's opening day. The Phillies are predicted to go 93-69 which is 10 games ahead of the 2nd place predicted Braves. The Pirates (99), Dodgers (94), Rockies (92), Cardinals (92), and Cubs are all predicted to get to 90 wins also. In the AL, only the Angels (95) and Yankees (91) are predicted to reach that mark. The Phillies were 18-8 in the spring behind only the Angels who finished 20-6.

There were a couple of notable transactions during spring training. Nomar Mazara signed an 8 yr extension at $15m/yr. The last two years are team options. We also acquired SS Jose Iglesias from the rebuilding Orioles for Ps Carlos Frias and Adam Morgan and OF prospect Jake Minkis. The Ps are 29 yo AAAA types and Minkis is a former 6th round pick whose power never showed up but may still be an OK all around OF. Iglesias will be the defense-first backup SS I was looking for.

The OSA top 100 prospects list came out and former Phillie prospects P Miguelangel Bastidas (#5, DET) and P Randy Alcantara (#17, TOR) are on the list

Here's the opening day roster. Joseph is on the DL to start the season so Gabriel Lino is the backup C for now. 1B Ryan Zimmerman will start at 1B against lefties. 2B/3B Matt Carpenter, SS Jose Iglesias, and OFs Aaron Altherr and Gerardo Parra make up the rest of the active roster.

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Here are some ratings

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And just in case anyone is wondering who OSA sees as the best players in baseball to start 2019, here they are. Notice former Phillie prospect Jesse Biddle at the 12 spot for pitchers.

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We got off to a slow start but have been a little better lately. Injuries have been a problem this year. Giles is out for the season with a torn rotator cuff. Swanson picked up a 4 month injury. Joseph and Latos have also spent time on the DL. CF Daniel Fields had to be demoted after 2 months of triple slashing .161/.228/.242 (34 OPS+). He was replaced by #7 prospect in the system Mike Spooner. Spooner's only 21 so I don't know close his actual ratings are to his potential (55/70/40 with 65 def in CF) but it doesn't look like he was being challenged in AAA. Through 50 games he was at .310/.350/.483, 7 HR, 23/2 SB/CS, 131 OPS+, 3.2 WAR so he's going to get a chance to see what he can do. The bullpen is pretty thin after losing Giles and Dunn is upset about not being the closer. And if you're wondering why Mazara is struggling, maybe it's because two weeks after signing his extension my scout told me he lost 15 in eye pot, 10 in power pot, and 5 in con pot.

[phillyboy19]

Double message sorry

[phillyboy19]

That sucks about Mazara man.

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Originally Posted by phillyboy19

That sucks about Mazara man.

Yea, I guess that's the risk of a long term contract. He's 24 and coming off back-to-back 6.5 and 6.8 WAR seasons so I thought it seemed pretty safe to tie him up. I might be getting fired soon anyway so I guess it's the next GM's problem.

[cpatte210]

Biddle is my Ace in my Phillies rebuild. I'm in year 4 and am close to being fired I believe. I made the playoffs last year, but am hovering around .500 this season. Tommy Joseph has been great for you, he is still on my team, but strikes out so much it drives me crazy.

I'm following, keep the updates coming.

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The Phillies limped into the trade deadline one game over .500 and one game ahead of the Nationals. Maybe Kopitzke isn't the man to lead this team. Sixto Lezcano has taken over a 76-win, last place Orioles team and has them fighting for a playoff spot. I wish I would have remembered to offer him an extension. Two trades were made before the deadline

• SS Jose Iglesias and prospects RP Magali Benevides, C David Craan, and 1B Antonio Ruiz to the Rangers for RP Keone Kela and prospects RF Kevin Strohschein, 2B Matt Morales, and LF Chad Smith. I shopped Iglesias not expecting much but got much needed bullpen help. Kela is moving into one of the SU spots.
• SP Henderson Alvarez and IF prospects Daniel Romero, Matthew Schmidt, Ronaldo Marrero, and Ivan Martinez to the White Sox for CF Byron Buxton. I considered moving Alvarez before the season when my scout noticed a drop in movement and control. They are still pretty good but apparently not good enough when considering his lack of stuff. I thought about holding onto him and seeing if he could turn it around, he is the reigning Cy young winner after all, but at $18m/yr for the next two seasons I got a little scared. I also needed a CF and Buxton fills that spot. He hasn't lived up to his potential but should still be an average CF which will be an upgrade for me. The prospects are OK but not top 20 types.

Aaron Nola, Tommy Joseph, and JP Crawford made the All-Star team. Nola was the NL pitcher of the month in June (also in April but I forgot to mention that in the June update).

Time to sim it out and see if I get fired.

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Here's the annual summer look at the top 20 prospects. "Frisky" De La Torre is last summer's big international FA. #5, #7, and #14 were acquired in trades. #15 was our 1st round pick this summer.