Why is there a hit and scoring every first inning?!

ForeverRoyalKC · 06-06-2015, 01:54 PM

I wrote a post kinda like this one under OOTP 15 forums and it didnt get many looks and no responses. So I will try here....

I have watched now about 10 games (CPU vs. CPU) and all but one have had like two or three hits and scoring in the top of, bottom of or both in the 1st inning. It's like the AI doesnt know three up three down! I know there are hits and scoring in the 1st inning in real life, but I think it's more than coincidence that I just happen to pick every game that happens in.

Is there a slider type of setting in the OOTP game settings?? I think getting that many hits and scoring almost every first inning is pretty unrealistic. Can someone help me in how to maybe adjust that??

ForeverRoyalKC · 06-06-2015, 02:02 PM

I just wrote the above post, started to watch a Royals-Indians game and sure enough, just as I said, top of the first: Indians fly out, ground out, single, double and it's 1-0 Indians. Never fails.

H-E-L-P!

NolaSola7 · 06-06-2015, 02:44 PM

I get your point about frequency.... but I just tried one game, and 0-0, after 1

top of second had 2 runs..

game was 4-4 tie, went 13, 5-4

ForeverRoyalKC · 06-06-2015, 02:53 PM

Yeah, Nola...I just went thru a Pirates-Orioles game and, AGAIN, the O's score 2 in the top of the 1st!! I am getting very discouraged with this! I did tons of research and study to see if I really wanted to try the OOTP game and THIS is what's happening! I read so many times that OOTP is the most realistic game on the planet, bar none, and THIS is what keeps happening!!

endgame · 06-06-2015, 02:59 PM

All Innings Are Not Created Equal: How Run-Scoring Varies By Inning - Beyond the Box Score

And another interesting look: http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/399

ForeverRoyalKC · 06-06-2015, 03:12 PM

Duly noted, endgame, but I have now went thru TWELVE games and all but one has had first inning scoring. I went back thru the last week of real MLB games and looked at all of the lines scores. Thru the last week, runs were scored in the first no less than six times per a full mlb day. But EVERY single time I try to watch a game I think is a bit much! I will keep watching different games, but I have a feeling this is going to keep right on happening in rows.

Orcin · 06-06-2015, 06:30 PM

There are 2,430 games in a MLB season. You would need a sample size of 332 to draw a conclusion with 95% confidence level. Keep playing.

MBarrett · 06-06-2015, 06:38 PM

Came to post "sample size", Orkin beat me to it.

Mat · 06-07-2015, 01:21 AM

Out of 15 games, 8 games had a score in the 1st Inning in todays MLB for a total of 21 runs.

You are chasing shadows.

ForeverRoyalKC · 06-24-2015, 07:43 PM

You think so, Mat? I am now up to 36 games! 36! And hits with scoring in the first inning have happened in all but SIX. I have had TWO games where they went three up, three down in both halves of the first! It's like sliders in another certain video game and they are all set for the hitters!

I am VERY discouraged by this!

I understand real life baseball has scoring in the first innings, but I think this is ridiculous! The last game, I actually called it. It was the Royals and Astros and Alcides Escobar walked. I turned to my wife and said "Watch..he'll score, bet ya' anything." Sure enough, after Calixte popped up, Moustakas hit a double, Astros outfielder, Jon Singleton muffed fielding the ball and Escobar scored.

There has GOT to be a way to tune this down!

RISP! · 06-24-2015, 08:21 PM

Keep playing, you will find there will definitely be instances where it's 3 up 3 down for 1st inning. I have played a lot of games, and it does happen many times.
If it's too much hitting and scoring in the 1st inning, it could be because the top of the lineup come up in the first inning, so those are the best hitters.

Déjà Bru · 06-24-2015, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RISP!

Keep playing, you will find there will definitely be instances where it's 3 up 3 down for 1st inning. I have played a lot of games, and it does happen many times.

This is correct, and Orcin's post was first-rate. FRKC, 10 or 11 games is not enough to draw any conclusions from . . . unless . . . you have been toying around with these settings?

RchW · 06-24-2015, 08:36 PM

Just checked. I'm on 8 consecutive games with no scoring by either team in the first. For the month only 8 of 26 games had scoring in the 1st. Surely that's not enough.

NoOne · 06-24-2015, 09:41 PM

hmm i remember a bright young guy posting some article about being fooled by randomness... who was that... <bright neon, flashing arrow above head>

LOL

ForeverRoyalKC · 06-24-2015, 09:55 PM

Thanks for the friendly jab, RchW. Seriously, first I havent messed with any of the settings (that shows the 1923 year above) like that. Secondly, I watched the Twins and Mariners just before the Royals / Astros and the Mariners went up 5-0 in the top of the first. I KNOW, I am aware how baseball is and works and that many times, a team or teams score first. I fully understand that. I am a huge baseball fan. But when I have the numbers I just gave you, I think something is off. The video game I refer to is more realistic than this.
I will keep playing and keep trying and see what happens, but I hope someone will agree with me if I get another six out of almost forty games where it's three up and three down!

The Wolf · 06-24-2015, 09:58 PM

Are you fooled by the randomness of baseball?

NoOne · 06-24-2015, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ForeverRoyalKC

Thanks for the friendly jab, RchW. Seriously, first I havent messed with any of the settings (that shows the 1923 year above) like that. Secondly, I watched the Twins and Mariners just before the Royals / Astros and the Mariners went up 5-0 in the top of the first. I KNOW, I am aware how baseball is and works and that many times, a team or teams score first. I fully understand that. I am a huge baseball fan. But when I have the numbers I just gave you, I think something is off. The video game I refer to is more realistic than this.
I will keep playing and keep trying and see what happens, but I hope someone will agree with me if I get another six out of almost forty games where it's three up and three down!

that link above to the line graph only showed the percent of runs scored in the first relative to all other runs scored during a game. it was not a percent chance of a run scoring. it just shows that a larger than proportional amount of runs score in the first inning. more than any other inning.

looking at one team's results is not ideal. just look at the spread in 2015 so far: https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...red-percentage

if you have an excellent team, you can expect it to happen 35-40% of the time just for your team.

this guy explains why the nl 'seems' to score more in the first, but it is an illusion: Scoring by inning: AL vs NL (PART 1) » Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive

i'm having a tough time finding a calculated figure. but it's likely the probability roughly 50% of the time that one team or the other scores in the first inning.

RchW · 06-24-2015, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ForeverRoyalKC

Thanks for the friendly jab, RchW. Seriously, first I havent messed with any of the settings (that shows the 1923 year above) like that. Secondly, I watched the Twins and Mariners just before the Royals / Astros and the Mariners went up 5-0 in the top of the first. I KNOW, I am aware how baseball is and works and that many times, a team or teams score first. I fully understand that. I am a huge baseball fan. But when I have the numbers I just gave you, I think something is off. The video game I refer to is more realistic than this.
I will keep playing and keep trying and see what happens, but I hope someone will agree with me if I get another six out of almost forty games where it's three up and three down!

It was friendly; so I am glad you took it that way. So many don't.

However your biggest mistake is coming to a conclusion with no evidence. How do you know what the realistic rate of first inning scoring is? My jab was semi-serious. I have no clue what the correct rate is; you have no clue, and nobody in here or out there has any clue what the correct rate of first inning scoring is.

Anyone who wanted to know would have to collate every box score since the beginning of the modern era and even then there would be almost infinite variability if one looked at say each decade of data or pre-war vs post war seasons.

So, and I mean this sincerely; tell us what the realistic rate is? If you can't then you have no basis to conclude anything.

This is not pornography.

TLB1975 · 06-24-2015, 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

This is not pornography.

Thanks for clarifying.

fcabanski · 06-25-2015, 04:01 AM

"Duly noted, endgame, but I have now went thru TWELVE games and all but one has had first inning scoring. I went back thru the last week of real MLB games and looked at all of the lines scores. Thru the last week, runs were scored in the first no less than six times per a full mlb day. But EVERY single time I try to watch a game I think is a bit much! I will keep watching different games, but I have a feeling this is going to keep right on happening in rows."

So to check something in game, looking in on random games, you did something completely different with real life baseball, examined a week of games.

06-06-2015, 01:54 PM	#1
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,226	Why is there a hit and scoring every first inning?! I wrote a post kinda like this one under OOTP 15 forums and it didnt get many looks and no responses. So I will try here.... I have watched now about 10 games (CPU vs. CPU) and all but one have had like two or three hits and scoring in the top of, bottom of or both in the 1st inning. It's like the AI doesnt know three up three down! I know there are hits and scoring in the 1st inning in real life, but I think it's more than coincidence that I just happen to pick every game that happens in. Is there a slider type of setting in the OOTP game settings?? I think getting that many hits and scoring almost every first inning is pretty unrealistic. Can someone help me in how to maybe adjust that?? Last edited by ForeverRoyalKC; 06-06-2015 at 01:56 PM.

06-06-2015, 02:59 PM	#5
endgame Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 16,842	All Innings Are Not Created Equal: How Run-Scoring Varies By Inning - Beyond the Box Score And another interesting look: http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/399 __________________ "Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett _____________________________________________ Last edited by endgame; 06-06-2015 at 03:10 PM.

06-06-2015, 06:38 PM	#8
MBarrett All Star Reserve Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Canada Posts: 627	Came to post "sample size", Orkin beat me to it. Last edited by MBarrett; 06-24-2015 at 08:49 PM.

06-24-2015, 08:21 PM	#11
RISP! Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 17	Keep playing Keep playing, you will find there will definitely be instances where it's 3 up 3 down for 1st inning. I have played a lot of games, and it does happen many times. If it's too much hitting and scoring in the 1st inning, it could be because the top of the lineup come up in the first inning, so those are the best hitters. Last edited by RISP!; 06-24-2015 at 08:29 PM.

06-24-2015, 08:36 PM	#13
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	Just checked. I'm on 8 consecutive games with no scoring by either team in the first. For the month only 8 of 26 games had scoring in the 1st. Surely that's not enough. Attached Images __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

06-06-2015, 02:02 PM	#2
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,226	I just wrote the above post, started to watch a Royals-Indians game and sure enough, just as I said, top of the first: Indians fly out, ground out, single, double and it's 1-0 Indians. Never fails. H-E-L-P!

06-06-2015, 02:44 PM	#3
NolaSola7 All Star Starter Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Aarhus, Denmark Posts: 1,933	I get your point about frequency.... but I just tried one game, and 0-0, after 1 top of second had 2 runs.. game was 4-4 tie, went 13, 5-4

06-06-2015, 02:53 PM	#4
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,226	Yeah, Nola...I just went thru a Pirates-Orioles game and, AGAIN, the O's score 2 in the top of the 1st!! I am getting very discouraged with this! I did tons of research and study to see if I really wanted to try the OOTP game and THIS is what's happening! I read so many times that OOTP is the most realistic game on the planet, bar none, and THIS is what keeps happening!!

06-06-2015, 03:12 PM	#6
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,226	Duly noted, endgame, but I have now went thru TWELVE games and all but one has had first inning scoring. I went back thru the last week of real MLB games and looked at all of the lines scores. Thru the last week, runs were scored in the first no less than six times per a full mlb day. But EVERY single time I try to watch a game I think is a bit much! I will keep watching different games, but I have a feeling this is going to keep right on happening in rows.

06-06-2015, 06:30 PM	#7
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,890	There are 2,430 games in a MLB season. You would need a sample size of 332 to draw a conclusion with 95% confidence level. Keep playing.

06-07-2015, 01:21 AM	#9
Mat All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2015 Location: Australia Posts: 652	Out of 15 games, 8 games had a score in the 1st Inning in todays MLB for a total of 21 runs. You are chasing shadows.

06-24-2015, 07:43 PM	#10
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,226	You think so, Mat? I am now up to 36 games! 36! And hits with scoring in the first inning have happened in all but SIX. I have had TWO games where they went three up, three down in both halves of the first! It's like sliders in another certain video game and they are all set for the hitters! I am VERY discouraged by this! I understand real life baseball has scoring in the first innings, but I think this is ridiculous! The last game, I actually called it. It was the Royals and Astros and Alcides Escobar walked. I turned to my wife and said "Watch..he'll score, bet ya' anything." Sure enough, after Calixte popped up, Moustakas hit a double, Astros outfielder, Jon Singleton muffed fielding the ball and Escobar scored. There has GOT to be a way to tune this down!

06-24-2015, 09:41 PM	#14
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	hmm i remember a bright young guy posting some article about being fooled by randomness... who was that... <bright neon, flashing arrow above head> LOL

06-24-2015, 09:55 PM	#15
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,226	Thanks for the friendly jab, RchW. Seriously, first I havent messed with any of the settings (that shows the 1923 year above) like that. Secondly, I watched the Twins and Mariners just before the Royals / Astros and the Mariners went up 5-0 in the top of the first. I KNOW, I am aware how baseball is and works and that many times, a team or teams score first. I fully understand that. I am a huge baseball fan. But when I have the numbers I just gave you, I think something is off. The video game I refer to is more realistic than this. I will keep playing and keep trying and see what happens, but I hope someone will agree with me if I get another six out of almost forty games where it's three up and three down! Last edited by ForeverRoyalKC; 06-24-2015 at 09:56 PM.

06-25-2015, 04:01 AM	#20
fcabanski Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 170	"Duly noted, endgame, but I have now went thru TWELVE games and all but one has had first inning scoring. I went back thru the last week of real MLB games and looked at all of the lines scores. Thru the last week, runs were scored in the first no less than six times per a full mlb day. But EVERY single time I try to watch a game I think is a bit much! I will keep watching different games, but I have a feeling this is going to keep right on happening in rows." So to check something in game, looking in on random games, you did something completely different with real life baseball, examined a week of games.