Too Predictable....

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by sreem

So from what I can gather from these replies, I ......


A) Have too small a sample size
B) Am experiencing what is called "Confirmation Bias" (I'm not sure what that means but sounds cool)
C) Am perceiving the game wrong due to points A & B
D) May not be suited for managing
E) Should never, EVER, post negative reactions in these threads lest I want to be ridiculed by All-Star Reserve and Higher posters

One thing you might try for a bit, is to pick a random game from time to time and simply watch the game play out. You might get a completely different feel for games in which you don't have a stake in the outcome. Just a thought.

[Assos]

Originally Posted by sreem

So from what I can gather from these replies, I ......


A) Have too small a sample size
B) Am experiencing what is called "Confirmation Bias" (I'm not sure what that means but sounds cool)
C) Am perceiving the game wrong due to points A & B
D) May not be suited for managing
E) Should never, EVER, post negative reactions in these threads lest I want to be ridiculed by All-Star Reserve and Higher posters

Negative is good, as long as it is constructive! Not saying your's was not constructive.

[sreem]

Thank you to all who have responded.


I do apologize sincerely for this post being the "AI is out to get me..." type of post. I think for the most part you guys are right that I am remembering the bad stuff and not the good stuff. And I have too small a sample size. I've spent the last few years (actual years) just simming as GM. This year I read a thread that says you get more out of the game, become more engrossed and attached to your game, if you play out the games. So that's what I'm doing and it does FEEL like everything is working against my team. The "What can go wrong, will go wrong" mentality has sunk in.


I guess my goal for this post was to get sort of a cyber "pick me up" from guys who had struggled with similar problems but played through and everything was better on the other side.


What I didn't expect were the first few posts that were, well, in my opinion unproductive and could very well turn someone off to not only the game but this community.


I do love OOTP and I really wasn't trying to knock the game, coding, programing or AI. Just going through a tough patch.

[drksd4848]

Originally Posted by sreem

I've noticed this game just seems too predictable. I'm having a hard time getting comfortable with it in this sense :


1) If my team commits and error in an inning, it seems to almost ALWAYS (not 100% but close) lead to at least 1 run for the opposing team.


2) If I leave my starter in longer than 5 innings with a lead, he will become the most hittable, wildest pitcher I've ever seen even if he has been dominating the game up to that point (studs like Price or scrubs like Locke, doesn't matter)


3) Balks happen too much, and have ALWAYS (100% of the time) lead to a run in my game (have had 5 balks in my last 7 games)


4) Too many errors (I have had 1 error per game through the first 17 games of my season)


Has anyone else noticed this stuff. I'm strating to feel like the game is rigged to favor the AI. I've seen this consistently whether I play with a strong team (Detroit) or a weak team (expansion team inaugural season).


This issues (other than the frequency of errors) only seem to happen when I play out the games, not when I sim.


Someone please reassure me that the game is completely random and that the code doesn't favor the AI (like giving them contact and eye ratings +5 when errors occur in game).


I'm beginning to lose faith......

OK, here within lies the beauty of OOTP:

I remember I had made a bunch of posts about how OOTP is busted and all of the outcomes are pre-determined, etc, then I started to watch out for the "broken scenarios" in real baseball...

And ya know what?

Real baseball wasn't much different. The problem is, if something weird happens in a computer game or something happens that isn't what we perceive in real life, then it seems broken. If it happens in real life, it's just freaky.

I used to complain that too many runners score from second base on a base hit in OOTP. Then I started to specifically watch for it in real baseball. Turns out, OOTP more or less got it right (more or less, I still think there were a couple of instances where runners scored when they shouldn't have, but I couldn't specifically prove it, and the text play-by-play probably glossed over some nuances that made the situations more in line with real life). If they get the 3D animation to accurately represent all of the plays, I think that will go a long way to vindicate OOTP in terms of real life accuracy.

I always think: OOTP imitating real life imitating OOTP.

All I can say is, if it doesn't seem right in OOTP, watch for it in real baseball and you'll see, OOTP pretty much get's it right. You'll be surprised.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by sreem

Thank you to all who have responded.


I do apologize sincerely for this post being the "AI is out to get me..." type of post. I think for the most part you guys are right that I am remembering the bad stuff and not the good stuff. And I have too small a sample size. I've spent the last few years (actual years) just simming as GM. This year I read a thread that says you get more out of the game, become more engrossed and attached to your game, if you play out the games. So that's what I'm doing and it does FEEL like everything is working against my team. The "What can go wrong, will go wrong" mentality has sunk in.


I guess my goal for this post was to get sort of a cyber "pick me up" from guys who had struggled with similar problems but played through and everything was better on the other side.


What I didn't expect were the first few posts that were, well, in my opinion unproductive and could very well turn someone off to not only the game but this community.


I do love OOTP and I really wasn't trying to knock the game, coding, programing or AI. Just going through a tough patch.

I was one of those first responders and should have just kept my mouth shut. Sorry for my rudeness. I think it was the predictable part that got under my skin. With all the posts about game results being predetermined lately, I kind of flew the coop.

[Assos]

It is funny, I have run without playing any team, about 100 2015 seasons and I have had a 70+ times that the Rays were above .500 and playing well and the Red Sox were .500 or below. Some would say before the season, that the game was broken. I have to say that the game is pretty dang good on its real world modeling.

[sreem]

Originally Posted by David Watts

I was one of those first responders and should have just kept my mouth shut. Sorry for my rudeness. I think it was the predictable part that got under my skin. With all the posts about game results being predetermined lately, I kind of flew the coop.

My fault with the name of this post as well. I should not have used the title I did. Poor choice of words on my part

[phenom]

I almost came on here a couple weeks ago with similar complaints about wild pitches and passed balls. Seemed to me there were WAYYYYYY too many of each of those. After comparing my league numbers to those of MLB, both the current season and seasons past, I was essentially right on the nose. So I stepped back and grumbled about baseball. Stupid baseball.

[jaysdailydose]

The only reason the vets get agitated is that some of these issues we've either tested ad nauseum, or yelled so much in previous versions that we got things fixed so we get testy. Some of the stuff that has come up in the past I have tested over *1000* simmed seasons.

So, a lot of times, we get the complaint and there is literally no sample size - or in rarer instances, the person may not know that what is happening is 100% by design.

Most of the vets, if you throw real data in our faces, are the type to sit there and Sim a league over 1000 years for a couple nights sleep and then analyze the bloody hell out of it.

It's baseball. Stats matter. Bring wonky stats, and we will be your champions.

But bring the data.

[ThatSeventiesGuy]

Fiddle with the settings. If you don't like the way things are playing out currently (although, as others have said, I'd give it a bit more time), you can always switch stuff around. Or if all else fails, make some trades - it could be your guys.

[WeagleWeagle]

Originally Posted by phenom

I almost came on here a couple weeks ago with similar complaints about wild pitches and passed balls. Seemed to me there were WAYYYYYY too many of each of those. After comparing my league numbers to those of MLB, both the current season and seasons past, I was essentially right on the nose. So I stepped back and grumbled about baseball. Stupid baseball.

I think this has been the biggest eye opener for me since playing OOTP. Some things like pickoffs, past balls, errors & winning/losing streaks were really bothering me in my first season & I felt were unfair. Then I started really paying attention to these things in real life & realized how much this stuff happens in the real life games. And then I realized why managers are never smiling because they are thinking how unfair this game is too!

[drksd4848]

One thing I'll add:

Complaining that there are too many of X Y or Z events happening that aren't true to real life is kind of like going to an auto mechanic and saying,

"Hey, I hear a funny noise in my car. But only happens sometimes" There may very well be a funny noise, and there could be something that isn't right, but if you can't say, "It's a grinding noise in the front end and the car pulls to the right" and you can't reproduce the noise to the mechanic, you might as well not bother because you'll drive everyone nuts

Same thing with OOTP.

[sreem]

Originally Posted by drksd4848

One thing I'll add:

Complaining that there are too many of X Y or Z events happening that aren't true to real life is kind of like going to an auto mechanic and saying,

"Hey, I hear a funny noise in my car. But only happens sometimes" There may very well be a funny noise, and there could be something that isn't right, but if you can't say, "It's a grinding noise in the front end and the car pulls to the right" and you can't reproduce the noise to the mechanic, you might as well not bother because you'll drive everyone nuts

Same thing with OOTP.

Hmmm, I guess we can agree to disagree on that one. Thanks for the input anyway!

[Questdog]

Originally Posted by sreem

I'm sorry, did I miss something? I've been buying and playing this game since 12, so not sure where you're coming from here.


I have a serious concern and your response is that? Nice.


Could a non cool-aid drinker respond please, I'd appreciate a non-biased response.


I'm not making accusations, I'm concerned and frustrated. Or are we not allowed to question and be frustrated?

You asked for someone to tell you that you were wrong and so I did. I did not mean to hurt your feelings.

It is just beyond by imagination how someone could sit down to their keyboard and type out a message where they consider it as an actual possibility that Markus has added code into the game to make sure a run scores anytime there is a balk.

That seems like silliness to me......if it seems like a serious concern to you, maybe you just need to readjust the tinfoil under your cap.......

[drksd4848]

Originally Posted by sreem

Hmmm, I guess we can agree to disagree on that one. Thanks for the input anyway!

How so?

[ra7c7er]

Originally Posted by sreem

I'm sorry, did I miss something? I've been buying and playing this game since 12, so not sure where you're coming from here.


I have a serious concern and your response is that? Nice.


Could a non cool-aid drinker respond please, I'd appreciate a non-biased response.


I'm not making accusations, I'm concerned and frustrated. Or are we not allowed to question and be frustrated?

I've personally never seen anything of the things you describe. Even when having horrible defensive teams I've never seen errors like that. Granted once i saw 5 in one game by the same team but never a streak like that.

I've seen balks but I can only think of one that happened in OOTP15 that led to a run (and my team losing the championship to boot) so I can't say I see that much either. Although I'd think balks are more common with runners on base so I think more balks would lead to runs anyway? Maybe?

As for your specific issues maybe you have bad defensive infielders?

[NoOne]

it's easy to think something is out of whack when it isn't. the people that ask 'why' or show frustration about something should not be admonished by more experienced players. they should be a little more understanding and patient. if they can't, why read something that frustrates you, and reply in a way that is unproductive.

quite a few were rude to the OP. through their ensuing replies i can tell they don't even realize it. the original post was written in frustration - have some sympathy and understanding.

half of the refuters are using confirmation bias and small samples sizes in response - which is equally illogical in either side of the debate.

in addition to anything that was stated: if something does continue to happen, change your behaviour (managing style or whatever) and re-evaluate.

don't trust your brain to be able to run a linear regression - let alone try to figure out other basic statistics based on your(anyone's) memory.

unlike what others said, it's definitely possible for events x, y or z events happening too often in the game, hence the modifiers we have access to. unfortunately, a large portion of these types of complaints are not based in facts, but rather frustration and feelings. if a group of people cry wolf too often, people start to assume there is no wolf - even when it is obvious there is one chewing on their ankles.

in this case, i think a small sample size is to blame. back the game up, restore it as a temporary league you can sim out afew years and compare results to reality (on balks and such). the in-game stuff is more difficult to figure out. re-evaluate how you handle those situations as a manager.

[sreem]

Originally Posted by Questdog

You asked for someone to tell you that you were wrong and so I did. I did not mean to hurt your feelings.

It is just beyond by imagination how someone could sit down to their keyboard and type out a message where they consider it as an actual possibility that Markus has added code into the game to make sure a run scores anytime there is a balk.

That seems like silliness to me......if it seems like a serious concern to you, maybe you just need to readjust the tinfoil under your cap.......

Questdog,


First off, I never said that code was written to make balks cause runs. That was your own interpretation. What I implied was that it SEEMED like the AI had some sort of advantage.


Your assumptions were made either through blind disregard of anyone who responds negatively to the game (likely in your case it seems, as I have since read some of your other responses to other players) or your own inability to apply impartial reason. In either case, you are certainly entitled to your opinion but that doesn't give you the right to crap on someone elses.


Secondly, please understand if I find it hard to believe that you did not mean any hurtful or condescending implications with your first, and most recent post. When you say that you consider someone's opinion to be silly, you immediately put them on the defensive. And when you follow it up with "readjust the tin foil under your cap", well... can you see how your "apology" can't be taken seriously?


In any case, my opinions are obviously below you, as I'm sure you see me as not worthy of your time, so I will leave you with this. I understand that my original post was born out of frustration and not completely grasping the situation I was in. I said as much in subsequent posts. My 2 interactions with you, however have completely changed my personal opinion of you, which was much higher before this.


Thankfully I have had good discussions on these boards before with other people, because if I hadn't and yours was the only I had had as a new OOTP player, I would not come back.


I have said my peace now, and I do apologize for my poor choice of Title to this post and my mistake of focusing on small sample size. I would appreciate it if you would just leave me alone now. If you feel a need to respond I understand, but really do not wish to fight or argue with you about this topic anymore.

[Toast]

Originally Posted by sreem

Questdog,


First off, I never said that code was written to make balks cause runs. That was your own interpretation. What I implied was that it SEEMED like the AI had some sort of advantage.


Your assumptions were made either through blind disregard of anyone who responds negatively to the game (likely in your case it seems, as I have since read some of your other responses to other players) or your own inability to apply impartial reason. In either case, you are certainly entitled to your opinion but that doesn't give you the right to crap on someone elses.


Secondly, please understand if I find it hard to believe that you did not mean any hurtful or condescending implications with your first, and most recent post. When you say that you consider someone's opinion to be silly, you immediately put them on the defensive. And when you follow it up with "readjust the tin foil under your cap", well... can you see how your "apology" can't be taken seriously?


In any case, my opinions are obviously below you, as I'm sure you see me as not worthy of your time, so I will leave you with this. I understand that my original post was born out of frustration and not completely grasping the situation I was in. I said as much in subsequent posts. My 2 interactions with you, however have completely changed my personal opinion of you, which was much higher before this.


Thankfully I have had good discussions on these boards before with other people, because if I hadn't and yours was the only I had had as a new OOTP player, I would not come back.


I have said my peace now, and I do apologize for my poor choice of Title to this post and my mistake of focusing on small sample size. I would appreciate it if you would just leave me alone now. If you feel a need to respond I understand, but really do not wish to fight or argue with you about this topic anymore.

There are some that take up throwing the old spit ball at anyone that brings up a genuine concern. I appreciate your offering and the constructive feedback given back. Don't let silly comments brother you. OOTP is a great baseball sim and it is open input such as yours that can only make it that much better. .

Toast

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Toast

There are some that take up throwing the old spit ball at anyone that brings up a genuine concern. I appreciate your offering and the constructive feedback given back. Don't let silly comments brother you. OOTP is a great baseball sim and it is open input such as yours that can only make it that much better. .

Toast

Well look who it is. Something told me our breadlike friend couldn't avoid a thread like this.

Col. Mustard.