Attendance change based on major transaction

[Matt Arnold]

One thing to note is if your stadium capacities are overly huge, we set artificial minimums to attendance that could pull numbers higher than expected. Or perhaps when you relegate teams, if you do it after season ticket sales, that could screw things up too.

Not sure why the minors are so low. They're the one part that I don't think I touched. I can poke around a little to see what's happening.

[Assos]

So, if you at historically bad Cleveland Municipal (Mistake by the Lake) seating and see that at times, it could seat over 70k or the few seasons of the LA Coliseum and the game will give that team a higher then league average for base fans?

[chucksabr]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

One thing to note is if your stadium capacities are overly huge, we set artificial minimums to attendance that could pull numbers higher than expected. Or perhaps when you relegate teams, if you do it after season ticket sales, that could screw things up too.

Not sure why the minors are so low. They're the one part that I don't think I touched. I can poke around a little to see what's happening.

OK, I have to run out now, but I will look at that when I get back and let you know. Thanks.

[chucksabr]

Actually, I was able to put this together faster than I thought, so below is a screenshot of the attendance difference, by club for 1932 (played in 16) versus 1931 (played in 14).

The main variables side by side in this pivot table, all with two columns showing 1931 and 1932, are:

- The capacity of the ballpark.
- The total attendance for the club.
- The total capacity for the entire season (i.e., home games * capacity).
- % of capacity filled for the season. This is one biggie to look at (light orange).

Beyond that:

- The difference in capacity filled, in points, 1932 over 1931, another biggie (light orange).
- Average attendance for ONLY those clubs that spent both seasons in the same division, with percent change from prior year. This is one last biggie here (light orange).

The intention from 1931 to 1932 was to have average attendance drop by about 10% across all divisions, each and every one, to be consistent with the story I am trying to tell with my English Baseball League dynasty.

There is a lot going on here, so here are the highlights of what I am noticing:

• In Division 1, the clubs that spent both years there showed reasonable rates of change, some up and some down. Only the two clubs that spent the previous season in Division 2 showed dramatic increases. But overall, average attendance dropped 12% for same division teams. So far, so good.
• In Division 2, the clubs that spent both years there all show substantial increases, except for clubs in D1 the year before, who show decreases (as they should). But see the clubs that were in D3 the year before? They showed huge increases, each well over doubling their attendance. That makes some sense, since they went up which should spur a little more interest, but onver double in the middle of the Depression? But overall, same division clubs showed a +35% increase in attendance when they, too, should have decreased by around -10%.
• Division 3 is where it gets wacky. Most of the same division clubs went up by +100% or better, one going as high as +300%. Chelsea, a D2 club, went down by -42%, which makes sense. Notts Country went up by +4%, which probably should not have happened. But the weirdo thing here is that they all showed super high increases, and mainly having to do with the fact that the teams who were in D3 last year all had super high attendance increases, when the average that I set in settings should have been, again, -10%. (Also, notice how very similar the average attendance for the D3 clubs are versus each other? That's also weird.)

One last thing: I do see some inverse correlation between stadium capacity and attendance change, but if stadium capacity were the main reason, we should be seeing similar changes across all division for stadia of similar sizes, yet we do not.

What do you think? I mean, beyond the idea that I'm obsessive about my Dynasty?

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

One thing to note is if your stadium capacities are overly huge, we set artificial minimums to attendance that could pull numbers higher than expected.

What constitutes "overly huge"? As a general thought, I think it improper to have any sort of artificial minimum to attendance. There is certainly nothing in real life which sets a bottom for a club's attendance (though for the most part the spread between lowest, average, and highest attendance for MLB clubs will fall within a certain range).

[chucksabr]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

One thing to note is if your stadium capacities are overly huge, we set artificial minimums to attendance that could pull numbers higher than expected. Or perhaps when you relegate teams, if you do it after season ticket sales, that could screw things up too.

Not sure why the minors are so low. They're the one part that I don't think I touched. I can poke around a little to see what's happening.

I typically relegate within three days after the offseason begins. When do season ticket sales start?

BTW, I do have different reputation numbers for leagues: 9 for D1; 8 for D2; 7 for D3; 6 for the non-League (minor) league. Does that factor in as well?

[Matt Arnold]

Would you mind uploading your files so that I can have a look? What you're seeing is not anything to do with capacity, but I'd be interested to see why you're seeing such huge jumps. All the tests I've run we track very close to the target attendance value, so it's weird to see your div 3 be nearly double the expected value.

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by Assos

So, if you at historically bad Cleveland Municipal (Mistake by the Lake) seating and see that at times, it could seat over 70k or the few seasons of the LA Coliseum and the game will give that team a higher then league average for base fans?

The effect is only noticeable in extremes. I believe it's currently set at something like 1%, so it will only show up if you have your league average attendance set at something like 200 people per game, and the stadium seats like 40k+.

[chucksabr]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Would you mind uploading your files so that I can have a look? What you're seeing is not anything to do with capacity, but I'd be interested to see why you're seeing such huge jumps. All the tests I've run we track very close to the target attendance value, so it's weird to see your div 3 be nearly double the expected value.

I've just uploaded the meta-RAR file "Attendance Issues 16 vs 14" with three individual RARs included:

- Post-1931 season (10/3/31) for OOTP 14
- Post-1931 season for OOTP 16
- Opening Day 1932 (5/2/32) for OOTP 16

You can play out each post-1931 season file through 1932 in both 14 and 16 to see how they go. They still have the 1931 attendance targets within.

The pre-season 1932 file is the continuation of Post-1931 season OOTP 16, after I make all the changes for the next season, e.g., promotion/relegation, financial changes including attendance targets, etc.

Thanks for looking into this!

[chucksabr]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

One thing to note is if your stadium capacities are overly huge, we set artificial minimums to attendance that could pull numbers higher than expected. Or perhaps when you relegate teams, if you do it after season ticket sales, that could screw things up too.

Not sure why the minors are so low. They're the one part that I don't think I touched. I can poke around a little to see what's happening.

Just a note on the bold-faced part:

My intention with my dynasty is to see attendance reduced commensurate with actual baseball attendances of the time. It was the Depression, after all, so there were a lot of big stadia that were not getting even close to filled.

If you take a look at this really great infochart over at Beyond the Box Score:

Baseball attendance trends, 1890-2015--a visual analysis - Beyond the Box Score

You can check out season attendances for teams during this era, or even teams with humongous stadia during other eras.

Under the Team tab, for instance, if you select Orioles, you will also get St. Louis Browns, and during the 30s, they routinely filled only single digit percent for entire seasons' capacities, as low as 4% in 1933.

Also, if you select Indians, you also see 6% during 1933, single digit percents during the WWII, and anywhere from 9% to high teens percents throughout the 60s, 70s and 80s, even into 1991.

So there is precedent for a team not being able to fill even a tenth of its capacity throughout the season.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by chucksabr

Also, if you select Indians, you also see 6% during 1933, single digit percents during the WWII, and anywhere from 9% to high teens percents throughout the 60s, 70s and 80s, even into 1991.

A caveat about the Indians though: from 1932 through 1946 it split its home games between Cleveland Stadium and the much smaller League Park. (Of the 1,169 home games played by the Indians from 1932-46, only 40.9% were played at giant Cleveland Stadium; the remainder were played at League Park.)

A general caveat about the link provided (which is interesting, by the way) is that park capacities have changed over the years. Not sure how much such changes are reflected in the link. Oftentimes the 'official' maximum capacity was lower than the number of fans recorded for a game. Cleveland Stadium's capacity is often given as being about 78,000 yet the largest crowd to attend a game there was 86,563 (of which 84,587 were paid admissions).

It's led me to the conclusion that the maximum capacity for a real-world ballpark should be based on the largest recorded attendance if such figure exceeds the maximum capacity commonly found in various publications.

[dward1]

I've also seen huge attendance drops (40%) when transferring a league from 15 to 16. this also came from a 3rd tier league. the finances also seem to have changed drastically for some reason, teams whose payrolls were climbing higher and higher in the top tier are now plummeting for some reason. one team had a payroll of $46 million before I switched versions, then had a solid season and saw payroll slashed to $39 million. next season it will be down to $34 million after winning the title, any explanation?

[chucksabr]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

A caveat about the Indians though: from 1932 through 1946 it split its home games between Cleveland Stadium and the much smaller League Park. (Of the 1,169 home games played by the Indians from 1932-46, only 40.9% were played at giant Cleveland Stadium; the remainder were played at League Park.)

A general caveat about the link provided (which is interesting, by the way) is that park capacities have changed over the years. Not sure how much such changes are reflected in the link. Oftentimes the 'official' maximum capacity was lower than the number of fans recorded for a game. Cleveland Stadium's capacity is often given as being about 78,000 yet the largest crowd to attend a game there was 86,563 (of which 84,587 were paid admissions).

It's led me to the conclusion that the maximum capacity for a real-world ballpark should be based on the largest recorded attendance if such figure exceeds the maximum capacity commonly found in various publications.

You make a good point, but Beyond the Box Score is a very well respected website which relies on the perception of data integrity for its reputation, so I would be quite surprised if they were not taking the split between Municipal and League Park, as well as the changing maximum capacities, into consderation.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by chucksabr

You make a good point, but Beyond the Box Score is a very well respected website which relies on the perception of data integrity for its reputation, so I would be quite surprised if they were not taking the split between Municipal and League Park, as well as the changing maximum capacities, into consderation.

I didn't see anything offhand which said its data had corrected for such things, so I was just wondering. It's something that could easily be overlooked. I probably wouldn't have thought of it myself had I not l had a ballpark reference book nearby.

Capacities for the older parks which had bleachers is problematic in any event due to the nature of bleachers, which were just long benches rather than separate seats. (There's also the matter of standing room only tickets.)

There was an article in an early 1950s issue of The Sporting News which listed the ticket prices for each type of seat (box, reserved, grandstand, bleacher) as well as the number of each type for the 16 MLB teams. What was curious about it was that different seat counts were used for the Browns and Cardinals despite both clubs using the same ballpark.

[chucksabr]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

There was an article in an early 1950s issue of The Sporting News which listed the ticket prices for each type of seat (box, reserved, grandstand, bleacher) as well as the number of each type for the 16 MLB teams. What was curious about it was that different seat counts were used for the Browns and Cardinals despite both clubs using the same ballpark.

Perhaps the Borwns and the Cardinals segmented the seats different, e.g., maybe a few of the seats the Cardinals sold as "box", the Browns sold as "reserved"? I don't know.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by chucksabr

Perhaps the Borwns and the Cardinals segmented the seats different, e.g., maybe a few of the seats the Cardinals sold as "box", the Browns sold as "reserved"? I don't know.

I don't know either, but it illustrates the somewhat malleable nature of stadium seating capacities.

ETA: The article was published in the April 16, 1952 edition of The Sporting News. According to the article, these were the seating capacities for each park:

American League
Boston: 34,831
Chicago: 48,556
Cleveland: 73,811
Detroit: 54,151
New York: 67,163
Philadelphia: 33,222
St. Louis: 30,808
Washington: 29,920

National League
Boston: 37,746
Brooklyn: 31,902
Chicago: 38,710
Cincinnati: 29,939
New York: 55,131
Philadelphia: 33,222
Pittsburgh: 33,730
St. Louis: 30,808

I was mistaken about the article listing a different seating total for the two St. Louis clubs. The total capacity is the same (30,808); what was different was the breakdown of the seat types. The Browns were listed as having 3,297 box seats, 20,308 reserved grandstand, 2,203 general admission, 2,400 bleachers, and 2,600 pavilion. The Cardinals had 2,646 box seats, 20,959 reserved grandstand, 2,203 general admission, 2,400 bleachers, and 2,600 pavilion.

[chucksabr]

Since this Financial issue is related to the Attendance issue, I would guess, I guess I will post this here.

There is some extreme goofiness showing up in my Third Division regarding revenue. Here, on October 10th, 1932, the attendance and gate revenue is showing up in my financial report thusly:



I'm looking at this and wondering, how on God's green earth is Bristol Rovers second in the league in attendance while Merthyr Town is 39th, but Merthyr Town cleared £1,182 in gate revenue, three times more than the next team, while Bristol Rovers have only £82 for the entire season?

As I review the Merthyr Town attendance info:



versus the same data for Bristol Rovers:



The only conclusion I can come to is, something is seriously messed up about the way the game is calculating and reporting on all this. It appears that the links between the tables in the database is not working.

[Le Grande Orange]

Do you have gate sharing on? And if so, what is the percentage? (Gate sharing means the visiting team gets the specified portion of the gate receipts for that game.)
Such sharing would affect the numbers shown, and OOTP does not offer you a raw breakdown of the gate receipts in such a case, only the final result.

[chucksabr]

Yes, 20%. But unless there's some theory in which the math actually works (i.e., a bona fide mathematically plausible theory rather than an anything-is-possible hypothetical theory), I can't believe gate sharing is the culprit. After all, there's no way a team averaging £95 of gate revenue per game ends the season with a grand total of £82 in gate revenue for the entire season because of a 20% gate sharing clause.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by chucksabr

Yes, 20%. But unless there's some theory in which the math actually works (i.e., a bona fide mathematically plausible theory rather than an anything-is-possible hypothetical theory), I can't believe gate sharing is the culprit. After all, there's no way a team averaging £95 of gate revenue per game ends the season with a grand total of £82 in gate revenue for the entire season because of a 20% gate sharing clause.

Well, that would depend on whether OOTP is showing the gross figure in certain places from gate receipts or the net figure after gate sharing.

There was a small bug a version or two ago where attendance on one screen was for the regular season only but on another screen it included attendance from post-season games in the total. This discrepancy naturally affected the per game average attendance shown on each screen as only the number of regular season games was being used to calculate the per game average. So it's possible the revenue per game or other data could be suffering from the same sort of issue.