2015 MLB season projections

rasnell · 03-23-2015, 06:15 PM

Add your own results to this thread, but here are my annual projections. OOTP 16 was released today, the same day as my book about the 1929 Chicago Cubs on Kindle (see my signature and links below).

2015 MLB season forecast
By Roger Snell

The St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers consistently simmed as the best in baseball, according to 2015 season projections done using a database of all MLB players and current team rosters.

The Cards averaged 98.7 wins and Dodgers 94.8. Both are NL teams. The Cards will win the NL and the World Series in 2015, according to projections.

The Oakland Athletics were third best in baseball and best in the AL, the only AL team to come close with 89.5 wins. They will lose to the Cards in the World Series, according to projections.

How do the defending champion San Francisco Giants and AL defending champion Kansas City Royals fare in the new season? Not well.

The Giants average 84.4 wins and a post-season bid 40 percent of the time, making a repeat look unlikely.

The Royals average 81.1 wins and have a 20-percent post-season chance, looking even less likely to redeem their 2014 World Series loss.

The sims were run using Out of the Park Baseball software, with the newest version being released today. Here is the link: Out of the Park Baseball - Home

I have done these projections each season for several years as a beta tester for OOTP. The rosters created by the OOTP data team, using actual stats and programmed aging and development measurements, have been remarkably prophetic, especially in projecting Tampa Bay’s first World Series in 2008 when no expert in baseball chose them to go from 66 wins in 2007 to 97 wins in that remarkable World Series try; and in forecasting that the Reds would make it to post-season play in 2011 and 2012 but could not beat the Phillies or the Giants in those October match-ups.

There are still a number of unsigned free agents who could reshape some of these teams. Injuries in real life also can change results.

Here are the projections by division:

#
AL East
Tampa Bay leads the AL East with 86.4 wins and a 70 percent chance of making the post-season.

The Red Sox (83.8 wins) and Yankees (83 wins) will continue as top rivals, but their post-season chance is going to depend on the wild card and how the other divisions fare.

Toronto and Baltimore are just not strong enough, with 10 percent chances to make the post-season.

#
AL Central
Kansas City won the AL Central and the AL in 2014, but they are projected to finish third in the division for 2015.

Cleveland (86 wins) and Detroit (84.6) are neck and neck for who will win the AL Central. Both teams make the post-season 50 percent of the sims.

#
AL West
Oakland is rock solid in every sim, winning the AL West 80 percent of the time and averaging more wins than any other AL team.

The Los Angeles Angels are the only serious team to challenge Oakland in the AL West, averaging 83.4 wins and making it to the post-season 40 percent of the time.

#
AL Summary
Oakland will win the AL championship.

Standings are projected as follows with average wins and post-season chances shown:

Oakland, 89.5, 80 percent
Tampa Bay, 86.4, 70 percent
Cleveland, 86, 50 percent
Detroit, 84.6, 50 percent

#
NL East
The Washington Nationals dominate the NL East with 88.8 wins and an 80 percent chance of reaching the post-season.

Atlanta should be second in the division with 84.1 wins and a 40 percent chance of reaching post-season play.

The Mets are on the rise and make decent runs in every sim, averaging 80.1 wins for a 20 percent post-season chance.

#
NL Central
No team dominates the MLB like the St. Louis Cardinals.

They average 98.7 wins and have a 100 percent chance of post-season play.

The rest of the division is a total toss-up and none of the other teams averages over .500 in wins.

But here is a footnote to really encourage Chicago Cub fans. In one sim, the Cubs squeaked in to a wild card with 85 wins and WON the 2015 World Series.

The Cubs have an immense offense and greatly improved pitching staff, with Travis Wood and Jon Lester being a big reason for their rise. But I still think they are at least one year away.

The Reds can kiss contention goodbye. They are going to need to figure out how to build for the future and might as well start now if they cannot afford Cueto. It's time to sell and rebuild.

Even in seasons where Votto returns to form, the Reds are not even a .500 team.

Tony Cingrani is the biggest surprise, evidently hitting a career peak because of his age and current stats. He actually emerged in several seasons as the Reds' best pitcher.

#
NL West
Projecting the Dodgers to win the division is as obvious as picking the Cards.

No team comes close to the Dodgers' 94.8 wins and 100 percent chance of reaching the post season.

San Diego (84.4) and San Francisco (84) have a 50-50 shot at post-season play. The strength of the Padres is a surprise,
especially in that they sim slightly better than the defending World Champion Giants.

#
NL Summary
St. Louis and Los Angeles are substantially better than any other team in the National League.

It is easy to project both of them to contend for the NL title. But it is most likely the Cards will win it all.

Here are the most likely to make the post season in the NL:

St. Louis, 98.7 wins, 100 percent.
Los Angeles, 94.8, 100 percent.
Washington, 88.8, 80 percent.
San Diego, 84.4, 50 percent.

Promisedland · 03-23-2015, 07:17 PM

Very interesting read.

In my league, the Nationals, (AI) won the 2015 World Series. After the win, they proceeded to make a blockbuster trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks, sending off Stephen Strasburg for Jake Lamb, a minor league prospect, and cash considerations. Lamb, who had an all star 2015, will be batting fourth for the Nats, behind Bryce Harper in 2016. The trade was criticized by the national media and deemed highly questionable.

NCBeachBum · 03-23-2015, 07:19 PM

It's going to be quite hard for the Braves to do that well while averaging 3.5 runs per game.

rasnell · 03-23-2015, 07:19 PM

The Nationals were strong in my sims, but nothing matches up to Cards and Dodgers in the NL.

Albion Hero · 03-23-2015, 07:36 PM

Given that OotP runs on sabermetrics and such, its no surprise the Orioles aren't given much love in the game. They'll probably once again get 85-95 wins while none of the advanced numbers can explain why.

injury log · 03-23-2015, 09:43 PM

Tampa and Cleveland strike me as the biggest surprises, but I guess we'll see how things pan out. I'll be very surprised though if Tampa does well this year. And if Bryant can hit 8 HR every 25 AB like he's doing this spring, the Cubs could definitely make some noise this year.

Thanks for running the sims - interesting!

ThatSeventiesGuy · 03-23-2015, 10:56 PM

I like your sims. I am a little surprised the Nats didn't win more often in your sims. I guess their postseason..."prowess" extends to OOTP.

I'm a Cardinal fan, and even I think they have a better team overall.

Tampa and Oakland were the real shockers, though. All the "experts" seem to be down on them this year. Interesting. And no Mariners? They're prognosticator darlings this spring.

rasnell · 03-24-2015, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by injury log

Tampa and Cleveland strike me as the biggest surprises, but I guess we'll see how things pan out. I'll be very surprised though if Tampa does well this year. And if Bryant can hit 8 HR every 25 AB like he's doing this spring, the Cubs could definitely make some noise this year.

Thanks for running the sims - interesting!

It will be interesting to see how these two teams do in real life. The coastal bias of the media never seen to acknowledge small market successes.

rasnell · 03-24-2015, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThatSeventiesGuy

I like your sims. I am a little surprised the Nats didn't win more often in your sims. I guess their postseason..."prowess" extends to OOTP.

I'm a Cardinal fan, and even I think they have a better team overall.

Tampa and Oakland were the real shockers, though. All the "experts" seem to be down on them this year. Interesting. And no Mariners? They're prognosticator darlings this spring.

The Nationals are very strong. They will win the division, according to the projections. But they are no match for St. Louis or LA.

Assos · 03-24-2015, 11:53 AM

I have run many 2015 play outs on the non-official rosters and I have been surprised that the Rays have made ALCS and the WS twice out of 34 games.
Washington is always in it. I also had my beloved Mets go from first on Sept 1st to last 3 times.

IanIachimoe · 03-24-2015, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Assos

I also had my beloved Mets go from first on Sept 1st to last 3 times.

so it's realistic then?

just had an epic division title, & then wildcard collapse in my last season with the Mets reminiscent of 2007. I play out every game & couldn't do anything to stop it.

03-23-2015, 06:15 PM	#1
rasnell Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Frankfort, Kentucky Posts: 3,746	2015 MLB season projections Add your own results to this thread, but here are my annual projections. OOTP 16 was released today, the same day as my book about the 1929 Chicago Cubs on Kindle (see my signature and links below). 2015 MLB season forecast By Roger Snell The St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers consistently simmed as the best in baseball, according to 2015 season projections done using a database of all MLB players and current team rosters. The Cards averaged 98.7 wins and Dodgers 94.8. Both are NL teams. The Cards will win the NL and the World Series in 2015, according to projections. The Oakland Athletics were third best in baseball and best in the AL, the only AL team to come close with 89.5 wins. They will lose to the Cards in the World Series, according to projections. How do the defending champion San Francisco Giants and AL defending champion Kansas City Royals fare in the new season? Not well. The Giants average 84.4 wins and a post-season bid 40 percent of the time, making a repeat look unlikely. The Royals average 81.1 wins and have a 20-percent post-season chance, looking even less likely to redeem their 2014 World Series loss. The sims were run using Out of the Park Baseball software, with the newest version being released today. Here is the link: Out of the Park Baseball - Home I have done these projections each season for several years as a beta tester for OOTP. The rosters created by the OOTP data team, using actual stats and programmed aging and development measurements, have been remarkably prophetic, especially in projecting Tampa Bay’s first World Series in 2008 when no expert in baseball chose them to go from 66 wins in 2007 to 97 wins in that remarkable World Series try; and in forecasting that the Reds would make it to post-season play in 2011 and 2012 but could not beat the Phillies or the Giants in those October match-ups. There are still a number of unsigned free agents who could reshape some of these teams. Injuries in real life also can change results. Here are the projections by division: # AL East Tampa Bay leads the AL East with 86.4 wins and a 70 percent chance of making the post-season. The Red Sox (83.8 wins) and Yankees (83 wins) will continue as top rivals, but their post-season chance is going to depend on the wild card and how the other divisions fare. Toronto and Baltimore are just not strong enough, with 10 percent chances to make the post-season. # AL Central Kansas City won the AL Central and the AL in 2014, but they are projected to finish third in the division for 2015. Cleveland (86 wins) and Detroit (84.6) are neck and neck for who will win the AL Central. Both teams make the post-season 50 percent of the sims. # AL West Oakland is rock solid in every sim, winning the AL West 80 percent of the time and averaging more wins than any other AL team. The Los Angeles Angels are the only serious team to challenge Oakland in the AL West, averaging 83.4 wins and making it to the post-season 40 percent of the time. # AL Summary Oakland will win the AL championship. Standings are projected as follows with average wins and post-season chances shown: Oakland, 89.5, 80 percent Tampa Bay, 86.4, 70 percent Cleveland, 86, 50 percent Detroit, 84.6, 50 percent # NL East The Washington Nationals dominate the NL East with 88.8 wins and an 80 percent chance of reaching the post-season. Atlanta should be second in the division with 84.1 wins and a 40 percent chance of reaching post-season play. The Mets are on the rise and make decent runs in every sim, averaging 80.1 wins for a 20 percent post-season chance. # NL Central No team dominates the MLB like the St. Louis Cardinals. They average 98.7 wins and have a 100 percent chance of post-season play. The rest of the division is a total toss-up and none of the other teams averages over .500 in wins. But here is a footnote to really encourage Chicago Cub fans. In one sim, the Cubs squeaked in to a wild card with 85 wins and WON the 2015 World Series. The Cubs have an immense offense and greatly improved pitching staff, with Travis Wood and Jon Lester being a big reason for their rise. But I still think they are at least one year away. The Reds can kiss contention goodbye. They are going to need to figure out how to build for the future and might as well start now if they cannot afford Cueto. It's time to sell and rebuild. Even in seasons where Votto returns to form, the Reds are not even a .500 team. Tony Cingrani is the biggest surprise, evidently hitting a career peak because of his age and current stats. He actually emerged in several seasons as the Reds' best pitcher. # NL West Projecting the Dodgers to win the division is as obvious as picking the Cards. No team comes close to the Dodgers' 94.8 wins and 100 percent chance of reaching the post season. San Diego (84.4) and San Francisco (84) have a 50-50 shot at post-season play. The strength of the Padres is a surprise, especially in that they sim slightly better than the defending World Champion Giants. # NL Summary St. Louis and Los Angeles are substantially better than any other team in the National League. It is easy to project both of them to contend for the NL title. But it is most likely the Cards will win it all. Here are the most likely to make the post season in the NL: St. Louis, 98.7 wins, 100 percent. Los Angeles, 94.8, 100 percent. Washington, 88.8, 80 percent. San Diego, 84.4, 50 percent. __________________ Charlie Root won more games for the Cubs than any pitcher (201), yet was remembered for one pitch to Babe Ruth. Find out more about the 1929 World Series in my book, "Root for the Cubs: Charlie Root and the 1929 Chicago Cubs." See the web site at www.rootforthecubs.com. The book is at http://www.amazon.com/Root-Cubs-Char...t+for+the+cubs. Beta tester, OOTP 2007-2023 and iOOTP 2011-2014. Last edited by rasnell; 03-23-2015 at 06:21 PM.

03-23-2015, 07:19 PM	#3
NCBeachBum All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Topsail Island, NC, USA Posts: 1,049	It's going to be quite hard for the Braves to do that well while averaging 3.5 runs per game. __________________ And ain't that a shame, shame, shame Shame, shame, the way you do Oh, it's a shame, shame, shame Shame, shame on you

03-23-2015, 07:19 PM	#4
rasnell Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Frankfort, Kentucky Posts: 3,746	The Nationals were strong in my sims, but nothing matches up to Cards and Dodgers in the NL. __________________ Charlie Root won more games for the Cubs than any pitcher (201), yet was remembered for one pitch to Babe Ruth. Find out more about the 1929 World Series in my book, "Root for the Cubs: Charlie Root and the 1929 Chicago Cubs." See the web site at www.rootforthecubs.com. The book is at http://www.amazon.com/Root-Cubs-Char...t+for+the+cubs. Beta tester, OOTP 2007-2023 and iOOTP 2011-2014.

03-23-2015, 10:56 PM	#7
ThatSeventiesGuy Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Midland, MI Posts: 3,429	I like your sims. I am a little surprised the Nats didn't win more often in your sims. I guess their postseason..."prowess" extends to OOTP. I'm a Cardinal fan, and even I think they have a better team overall. Tampa and Oakland were the real shockers, though. All the "experts" seem to be down on them this year. Interesting. And no Mariners? They're prognosticator darlings this spring. __________________ https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...00&postcount=1 Last edited by ThatSeventiesGuy; 03-23-2015 at 10:58 PM.

03-23-2015, 07:17 PM	#2
Promisedland Bat Boy Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 10	Very interesting read. In my league, the Nationals, (AI) won the 2015 World Series. After the win, they proceeded to make a blockbuster trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks, sending off Stephen Strasburg for Jake Lamb, a minor league prospect, and cash considerations. Lamb, who had an all star 2015, will be batting fourth for the Nats, behind Bryce Harper in 2016. The trade was criticized by the national media and deemed highly questionable.

03-23-2015, 07:36 PM	#5
Albion Hero Bat Boy Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 18	Given that OotP runs on sabermetrics and such, its no surprise the Orioles aren't given much love in the game. They'll probably once again get 85-95 wins while none of the advanced numbers can explain why.

03-23-2015, 09:43 PM	#6
injury log Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Toronto Posts: 9,162	Tampa and Cleveland strike me as the biggest surprises, but I guess we'll see how things pan out. I'll be very surprised though if Tampa does well this year. And if Bryant can hit 8 HR every 25 AB like he's doing this spring, the Cubs could definitely make some noise this year. Thanks for running the sims - interesting!

03-24-2015, 11:53 AM	#10
Assos All Star Starter Join Date: May 2004 Location: Just on the fair side of the foul pole! Posts: 1,768	I have run many 2015 play outs on the non-official rosters and I have been surprised that the Rays have made ALCS and the WS twice out of 34 games. Washington is always in it. I also had my beloved Mets go from first on Sept 1st to last 3 times.