Team option issue in OOTP 16

[Avindian]

Is the contract AI in OOTP 16 going to be improved so that players won't fall for the mega team option with zero buyout that would never be picked up? It's been a bone of contention in my online league. It's not difficult to house rule it if necessary, but I was wondering if the developers had found a way to close the loophole.

[24Rocks]

Yes I have made that a rule in my solo leagues after to many deals like below

[Markus Heinsohn]

Contract AI has been improved a lot, we spent a lot of time on that, yes

[Avindian]

Excellent news!

[Matt Arnold]

Yes, this has been fixed. Players will now estimate their worth, and value the option accordingly. So if you give a huge option and the player expects that he won't be worth it, he essentially treats it as worthless.

[olivertheorem]

Is the check against the buyout or the option? Meaning, if I offer a player X+10, where X is the player's self-worth, with a 0 option, how does that all get factored together? Is the minimum acceptable buyout some (potentially variable) percentage of the player's estimated worth?

[ThePretender]

Does this affect vesting options as well? And arbitration extensions? I've been able to sign virtually any player I want for 2M for 4-5 years during pre-arb.

[Matt Arnold]

Given the option value and the buyout amount, the player will estimate the likelihood that the team will actually exercise the option. So if you offer a deal that's 1 year/5M with a 10M option, he will try to figure out how often that option will come into play. If he thinks it's a 50/50 whether it's accepted, then he will essentially value the deal as a "1.5 year"/10M contract offer.

Vesting options work in a similar way - the player estimates the chance that the vesting option will vest. So if you set a vesting option for 800 PAs, he's going to ignore it completely, but 400 PAs he'll try to figure out the odds that he'll hit the 400 PAs to trigger it.

Now I don't want to give away all our secrets,but pre-FA guys have also been tweaked. I've gotten rid of my traditional "Give them their arbitration estimate for 3-4 years, and now I have a young guy who will be a superstar for a ridiculously cheap deal" (on a side note, in my game I signed a guy who's now won multiple MVP awards and is a consistent .300 hitter with 30+ HRs to a 10 year deal worth 2.5M per year. He won't accept a deal like that in 16). Arb or pre-arb guys will essentially ballpark their value, so if you want to sign a guy to a 3 year deal, he'll try to figure out roughly speaking what he'd get in arbitration over that time, and won't sign a deal for much less than that.

[byzeil]

One other "quirk" of contract options that I hope has been addressed. Teams giving a Team Option in the next to last year and a big Player option in the last year with the intention of not picking up the Team Option thus making the Player Option worthless...



This is a 32yo player on the decline. Essentially the team will pay $5mil for the last 2 years (ages 35 & 36) where the player may expect $28mil.

[TomVeal]

If I'm interpreting Matt correctly, this guy will assign a very low probability to the exercise of the team option. If he thinks that there's a one percent chance of its being picked up, he'll value it at $120,000 and the 2080 player option at $160,000.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Now I don't want to give away all our secrets,but pre-FA guys have also been tweaked. I've gotten rid of my traditional "Give them their arbitration estimate for 3-4 years, and now I have a young guy who will be a superstar for a ridiculously cheap deal". Arb or pre-arb guys will essentially ballpark their value, so if you want to sign a guy to a 3 year deal, he'll try to figure out roughly speaking what he'd get in arbitration over that time, and won't sign a deal for much less than that.

Excellent! Thank you for closing this exploit. I play with a house rule to never a offer long-term contract to a pre-arb player unless the AAV of the contract exceeds their current arbitration estimate. Now I won't need that rule.

[ThePretender]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Given the option value and the buyout amount, the player will estimate the likelihood that the team will actually exercise the option. So if you offer a deal that's 1 year/5M with a 10M option, he will try to figure out how often that option will come into play. If he thinks it's a 50/50 whether it's accepted, then he will essentially value the deal as a "1.5 year"/10M contract offer.

Vesting options work in a similar way - the player estimates the chance that the vesting option will vest. So if you set a vesting option for 800 PAs, he's going to ignore it completely, but 400 PAs he'll try to figure out the odds that he'll hit the 400 PAs to trigger it.

Now I don't want to give away all our secrets,but pre-FA guys have also been tweaked. I've gotten rid of my traditional "Give them their arbitration estimate for 3-4 years, and now I have a young guy who will be a superstar for a ridiculously cheap deal" (on a side note, in my game I signed a guy who's now won multiple MVP awards and is a consistent .300 hitter with 30+ HRs to a 10 year deal worth 2.5M per year. He won't accept a deal like that in 16). Arb or pre-arb guys will essentially ballpark their value, so if you want to sign a guy to a 3 year deal, he'll try to figure out roughly speaking what he'd get in arbitration over that time, and won't sign a deal for much less than that.

That's great to hear, especially the pre-arb stuff. I've been using that one to my advantage for quite some time, and like yourself got some Cy Young & MVP level players on 4-5 year deals for 1.5-2M. Good to know that will be fixed .

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by byzeil

One other "quirk" of contract options that I hope has been addressed. Teams giving a Team Option in the next to last year and a big Player option in the last year with the intention of not picking up the Team Option thus making the Player Option worthless...



This is a 32yo player on the decline. Essentially the team will pay $5mil for the last 2 years (ages 35 & 36) where the player may expect $28mil.

Nice loophole. That will be fixed now

[bwburke94]

Pretty much everyone knows that loophole. Nice to see a fix.

[byzeil]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Nice loophole. That will be fixed now

Awesome!

[Ts-Rock]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Nice loophole. That will be fixed now

We just last week had to implement a league wide rule for this "loophole" that was starting to get exploited. The TO's have been an issue for a while in online lgs that we too had to add lg rules against. These issues alone being fixed are worth picking up OOTP16!! Great job Matt and team!!!