Doublin' Down, with Ruben Amaro, Jr.

[jaa36]

Lineup construction is mostly the domain of the field manager, but Dusty and me see eye to eye on this one. It's pretty easy, really, the same recipe that won championships in little league!

Your first hitter should be your speed guy, someone who can steal a lot of bases. So ideally, his batting average should be good too so he gets hits so that he can steal the bases.

Second is your bat control guy. Nothing more important here than productive outs to move the runners along so your big bats can drive them in.

Then your 3-4-5 hitters are your big power guys. The 3-hole guy has a high average, too, and the fourth hitter, of course, is your cleanup guy, the guy that knows how to drive in runs.

Your six and seven hitters are the next best ones, and the eighth hitter is usually a bat control guy who can get a hit to turn the lineup over for the next inning.

People talk about the platoon advantage, but it doesn't make sense to me. A power guy is a power guy, and I want that power bat in the lineup no matter who the pitcher is.

In our case, you can see that this is working well. We've got Jimmy Rollins (.243) leading off, and Chris Denorfia (.218) hitting second. Jimmy has a team-leading 11 stolen bases, and Denorfia is making all kinds of outs, many of them productive. Then you've got Chase Utley (50 RBI), Ryan Howard (59 RBI, even with missing a month) and Maikel Franco (88 RBI) driving them in. And that, friends, is how you build an offense.

Despite all our production, our record is still just 53-71. Cole Hamels is just 5-15, and John Lackey is 7-15, so I may look to trade one of them for (gulp) prospects if things do not turn around for them.

[Ciccarelli]

This is brilliant. Finally, math for the common man!

To hell with all of those WAR's and FIP's and UZI's. I believe in the delicious, delicious RUBEN.



Who knew analytics could be so delicious?

[Rurik]

While I am no mathematical genius like Mr. Amaro (I don't have a pocket protector), shouldn't the classic tools of "grit" and "veteran leadership" be included in his RUBENS statistic? Otherwise, these young SABREmatricians will forget what the game's all about!

[jaa36]

Originally Posted by Rurik

While I am no mathematical genius like Mr. Amaro (I don't have a pocket protector), shouldn't the classic tools of "grit" and "veteran leadership" be included in his RUBENS statistic? Otherwise, these young SABREmatricians will forget what the game's all about!

Thank you for the kind words. While I do have a knack for mathematics, I don't know that I would necessarily consider myself a genius, just an ordinary guy who knows a thing or two about winning baseball.

Grit and veteran leadership are unquestionably important, and of course I've already given you the formula for grit, but RUBENS is purely a statistical measure. To look at a player's leadership, you would have to use a different metric, RUBENS+. I'll go slow, so I don't lose anyone here.

The way to calculate RUBENS+ is simple- you just multiply the player's RUBENS by his Leadership Factor, which is the square root of the games a player has won, also known as game-winning RBI, minus the number of times the player has publicly complained about "the direction of the organization." (You will be surprised to hear that "the will to win," which is a variable in the Grit equation, is similar to Leadership Factor.)

RUBENS gives you a good sense of the player's overall production, but RUBENS+ helps you figure out how many games the player has actually won for you, so you'd be more likely to use RUBENS+ when figuring out who should win the MVP award, for example.

[jaa36]

Well, the season ended and once again we didn't make the playoffs. This time we were 67-95, which was even a little worse than last year. It's really left me scratching my head, because this team is really not that different from the one that won it all in 2008.

I do feel vindicated by the performances of some of our veterans, and hopefully their numbers will silence the critics out there. Ryan Howard hit .263 with 27 homers and 71 RBI, Chase Utley .295 with 18 homers and 61 RBI, Jimmy Rollins .256 with 18 homers and 14 steals. Ryan Raburn had 14 homers after coming over at midseason.

But the big offensive star was Maikel Franco, hitting .298 with 31 home runs and 113 RBI. There's some production for ya! That's 42 RUBENS for a kid just 23 years old.

The problem this year was that our starting pitching just did not win games for us. Lackey and Hamels both lost 18 games, and I will attempt to trade both of them this offseason. Cliff Lee was not an ace this year, and went 5-10 on the season. We need to retool the rotation to get some guys I can count on, but with just a few tweaks I think we'll be the odds-on favorite for the World Series next year.

[jaa36]

Well, here we are, the offseason. I don't have to tell you how good the offensive side of the ball was this year. But we really need to get some pitchers who know how to win. Pitching, as you know, is 90% of baseball. (The other 90% is hitting and defense, and baserunning is 5 or 10 percent as well.) It's harder to evaluate pitchers, because some guys have a high ERA but still win ballgames, and other guys have a low ERA but just don't know how to win. And sometimes a guy who knows how to win one season doesn't remember how to win the next season, making it look like (to the untrained observer) there is no correlation from season to season about how many ballgames a pitcher wins. You also have to figure out how much of an effect defense has on a pitcher's performance, but fortunately ERA separates out all the runs that are unearned, or caused by the defense.

So you really have to look at both stats, ERA and wins (or saves for a reliever) when you are evaluating a pitcher. And I never really thought to do this before, but time for a stat for pitchers! I'll call it AMAROS. Pretty easy, just Wins x 2 minus Losses divided by ERA. From this you can easily see who pitched well and who didn't- like Cole Hamels 2012 was good (9.3) AMAROS, and Cole Hamels 2015 was terrible (-1.5).

But I digress. Our offseason goals are the following:
1. Get some veteran pitchers who know who to win.
2. Replace some of the old guys in the bullpen with more old guys.
3. Find a speedy guy to steal some bases at the top of the lineup and play center field.
4. Shop around some of our young talent for some guys who can produce.

I exercised the options on Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Raburn, and Cliff Lee- all easy decisions. Marlon Byrd we allowed to leave as a free agent, but I hope to get him back on a minor league deal.

[jaa36]

Trader Ruben is at it again, and our team is looking better than ever. We made two big deals this offseason. First, we traded a few guys (Adam Morgan, Ethan Martin, Gaby Sanchez, Xavier Scruggs) for outfielder Leonys Martin and first baseman Kendrys Morales. Martin filled the speed need at the top of the lineup, and as for Morales, you never know when you might need that big bat off the bench.

The second deal was a sad one- we traded Cole Hamels away to the Yankees, along with Antonio Bastardo and that scrub Caleb Gindl, for Jacoby Ellsbury and Manny Parra. Hamels wasn't a winner anymore, and getting a good veteran pitcher in Parra and a true top-of-the lineup talent in Ellsbury was a steal for us. He hit .285 with 25 steals, only missed 50 games due to injury, and, at age 32, is under contract for five more years!

We then nabbed two key free agents- James "Big Game" Shields (two years, $4M/year) and Dan Uggla ($2.5M). You know with a nickname like Big Game that he'll win a lot for us. I also was able to extend Jimmy Rollins for two more years at $3.5M/year.

However, with all the spending, we didn't have anything left for our bullpen, so I then sent Leonys Martin on to Detroit for outfielder Carlos Quentin and reliever Jerry Blevins. That's a move I like to make sometimes, turning one player into two assets- another big-time power-hitting outfielder, and a solid veteran reliever.

Dusty Baker decided to retire- a less confident man than I would probably question whether it's something I'm doing that's driving our managers away- and I locked in Kirk Gibson for three years. Kirk was all about grit and hustle as a player, and I think will instill some of that in our current crop of players.

With all the wheeling and dealing, our lineup looks like this heading into 2015:

CF Jacoby Ellsbury
SS Jimmy Rollins
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
3B Maikel Franco
LF Domonic Brown
RF Ryan Raburn
C Carlos Ruiz

with Kendrys Morales, Evan Gattis, Carlos Quentin, and Brock Holt off the bench. (Young catcher Juan Centeno, who hit .351 last year as our backup, was victim of the numbers game and sent back to triple-A.)

Our rotation is:

Cliff Lee
John Lackey
Big Game James Shields
Manny Parra
Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez

After Papelbon, Feliciano, Blevins, and Adams, our bullpen is a little sketchy, but I'll fill in those holes as the season progresses.

Some nerds rated our system as #30 out of 30, but foo on them, because our major-league team is probably #1 out of 30.

Let's get this championship season started!

[jaa36]

I always go into a season expecting the best but prepared for the worst. So when Ryan Raburn and Maikel Franco both went down with serious injuries, I was ready to replace them. Third base will be manned by Pedro Alvarez, who hit 36 dingers and had a hundred ribbies just three years ago. Right field will fall to Carlos Quentin. The moves also gave me an opportunity to bring back Emilio Bonifacio as our utility man.

Manny Parra has been much worse than his usual mediocre self, going 0-4 with an 8.85 ERA so far. In fact, the starters have had a rough year so far all around, compiling a 5.31 composite ERA. Jacoby Ellsbury is doing his job at the top of the lineup, hitting .311, and Domonic Brown has five home runs so far. We are just 9-11, but I believe ready to turn things around.

Also, exciting news, as Jimmy Rollins has reinstated the team's kangaroo court. I've always thought that hazing the younger players was a good way for the veterans to show some leadership. Normally Jimmy would show some leadership with his bat too, but he's hitting just .175 this season so far.

[jaa36]

My head is spinning- we've lost seven straight games, and 15 of 17. Our team is somehow in last place at 15-28, which is about the opposite record from what I expected at this point.

It's almost impossible to imagine everyone on the team going into a slump at the same time, but that's what's happened. Rollins is hitting .217. Carlos Quentin, our right fielder, is hitting .094! Domonic Brown is at just .238, Pedro Alvarez just .209. At least Carlos Ruiz is hitting .304, and Jacoby Ellsbury .296. Our pitching is a mess, too. James Shields is just 2-6, Manny Parra 1-5, and Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez is 2-5. At least Cliff Lee is 6-3 and still knows how to win a game or two.

Where can the turnaround happen? Well, we need more production, to start with. Our leading hitter (Brown) has just 24 RBIs. And then we need the rotation to start winning games. Papelbon is closing things out well (9 saves), we just need to get the game to him with a lead.

[Antonius]

is great

[rpriske]

Beyond loving this dynasty, I just wanted to say... that Carlos Quentin has been a valuable member of my 2016 Blue Jays. Primarily he is my DH.

Not a star, but solid. Certainly not .094

[jaa36]

We picked a shortstop with a big bat, Bo Bichette, with the #2 overall pick. (That's one advantage of losing a lot of games, is you get a high draft pick.) Our #6 pick (Dakota Donovan) we probably won't be able to sign. Then after that it was the usual collection of "talent" that we'll hope other teams value more than us.

The other big news was that Big Game James Shields tore his UCL and will need Tommy John surgery. He was just 2-7, but to be fair, none of the games we've played this season have really been "big games." We brought up another veteran to replace him, Dustin McGowan. These old guys sure are fragile, though.

The good news is that we're on a hot streak, having won seven of twelve. We're not out of the playoffs just yet, and I have a feeling we'll be buyers at the trade deadline.

[jaa36]

Sometimes you have to just ride out a veteran's slump to get to the other side. Ryan Howard, as you recall, was in a five-year slump before breaking out last year. This year he is slumping again, with just a .236 average and six home runs, and then he got hurt for a month- which made my pickup of Kendrys Morales all the more astute.

Jimmy Rollins is a good example. You may recall he was hitting .175 at the beginning of the season. Well, we stuck with him, and he's got that average all the way up to .251 with 10 home runs and 18 steals. And, he got his 2500th career hit! I'm glad we locked him into that two-year extension because now we've got him wrapped up for cheap next year too.

Domonic Brown is also having a good year, hitting .278 with 17 home runs and 44 RBI. He's turned into a power hitter I can count on.

Meanwhile, let's take a look at some of the scrubs I traded away, like that Caleb Gindl to the Yankees... GADZOOKS! He's hitting .307 with 11 home runs!! That doesn't seem right, but for young players, it's kind of the opposite as from veterans- when they have a hot streak, you know they're not going to keep it up because they don't have that veteran consistency. And Antonio Bastardo... HOLD THE PHONE! He's turned into a top-flight closer with them, with 18 saves and a 2.97 ERA. Well, I don't regret the trade, as we needed to stabilize the rotation with Manny Parra, who... HOLY MACKEREL! Parra's 3-8 with a 6.22 ERA. Well, everyone lays an egg sometimes.

[jaa36]

There's been a lot of discussion recently about the value (or lack of value) of walks. For me, it's simple: every time a guy leaves the bat on his shoulder, that's at least one less run he could have driven in. Look at Domonic Brown. Remember when he hit 12 home runs in May of 2013? How many walks did he have that month? Zero! And he's turned out to be pretty, pretty good. They teach in little league that a walk is as good as a hit. Well, I was pretty good at little league, and I bet I could be a champion general manager at that level too, but this is Major League Baseball, and we care about production here. You produce by swinging the bat, period.

It was a pretty mediocre July, and we're now 42-61, just 14 1/2 games out of the second wild card. Speaking of production, we are first in the NL in home runs, but I think we are just not hitting them at clutch times, which is keeping us from winning ball games. Brown, our only all star, has 21 so far. Pedro Alvarez, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Kendrys Morales are all in double figures as well.

Unfortunately, I couldn't swing a deal for another starting pitcher at the deadline, so we're stuck with the current crop of losers. Cliff Lee is making a bit to not get his $27.5M option picked up next season- he is 8-12 with a 6.11 ERA- but I also know he can earn that kind of money in his sleep. I did, however, get John Mayberry Jr. back in a trade for outfielder Kelly Dugan. Mayberry Jr. is a similar player to Dugan, but is more experienced, more expensive, and more comically inept in the outfield.

[jdono927]

Love this dynasty

[jaa36]

Well, this came out of nowhere, but I've been fired as the general manager of the Phillies. It's a shame, because I think we were really building to something. Who would have thought that after all my success I would be fired after just four consecutive losing seasons? The Phillies' record at the time of my dismissal was 42-64.

Jimmy Rollins had just gotten injured, and I called up rookie J.P. Crawford to fill in as best he could. I thought it was a little bit of a gesture to show, hey, Ruben's willing to try out the young kids, but I guess it wasn't enough. The organization said that the last straw was giving a two-year extension to Pedro Alvarez, but I figure, hey, the guy's got 17 home runs already, let's lock him up!

It's a sad moment for me, but I'm a survivor. Time to fire up the ol' computer and work on the resume for the next job. I only hope they'll show a little more loyalty than the Phillies did. I always thought they were a two-bit organization.

[jaa36]

One great quality of mine is that I'm never defensive, and always open to feedback. So in the interest of putting my best foot forward, I wanted to put up my latest draft of my resume for critique.

Ruben Amaro Jr.
Phone: Ha ha, I'm not going to tell you that
Date of birth: February 12, 1965
Twitter: @PhilliesGM4Life*

Statement of purpose: To be a general manager and take YOUR team to the World Series... and beyond!

Experience:

Baseball player, 1991-1998
-Noted for grit and hustle
-A student of the game

Lemonade Stand Operator, 1998
-Tripled profit margin in summer months

Assistant GM, Philadelphia Phillies, 1998-2008
-In charge of some pretty important stuff
-World F****** Champions, 2008

General Manager, Philadelphia Phillies, 2008-2016
-Kept the dynasty going
-Signed a lot of veterans to very long-term contracts to lock in their value

Skills


Basic computer skills
-turning on, turning off, email, Myspace, googling things

Communication skills
-knows how to talk to veterans and put rookies in their place
-speaks stat-geek (invented RUBENS and AMAROS)

Financial skills
-can write checks for very large amounts
-knows how to use most of the buttons on a calculator

Publications

"The Phillies Way"
"Supply-Side Economics in Vichy France Juxtaposed Against Liberal Social Policies in Alsaice-Lorraine During the Second World War"
"Take Your Moneyballs and Go Home: An Open Letter to Billy Beans and Stat Nerds Everywhere"
"Producing a Champion: A Life in Baseball, by Ruben Amaro Jr."

Hobbies

Thinking about how to get more production
Frisbee golf
Teaching fundamentals

* I will be willing to change my Twitter handle to reflect my loyalty to YOUR team once I am hired.

[Honorable_Pawn]

Brilliant.

I nominate this dynasty (no matter how short it ended up being) for a Trixie Award!!

[jdono927]

Originally Posted by Honorable_Pawn

Brilliant.

I nominate this dynasty (no matter how short it ended up being) for a Trixie Award!!

I have a feeling Mr. Amaro will be headed to another team soon

[jaa36]

The Phillies were a real laughingstock after I left them, with a record of 68-94 on the season. They really mucked things up, sending Ryan Howard to Triple A, Jimmy Rollins to the bench, and Cliff Lee to the bullpen. They did get some production out of young catcher Juan Centeno, who hit .340 with 8 home runs, but I think Carlos Ruiz would have done the same thing had he gotten the opportunity. Anyway, I think the organization made a big mistake in not recognizing that these players had made the team successful in the first place.

MLB unexpectedly expanded by two teams going into the 2017 season: the Austin Tailgators will join the AL East, and the Jacksonville Average Joes will join the NL East. The sites make perfect sense, as I've often thought that Texas and Florida needed a third major league team. I also find the nicknames just perfect for the teams. A tailgator, of course, is a type of alligator (with a tail) found only in Austin; it preys on hipsters and college students. And as for Jacksonville, it's a wonderfully mediocre city, and it's nice that its name will reflect the city's character so effectively. It appears that MLB is attempting to model its geography after the NFL, in which cities in Texas are occasionally considered to be in the "East."

I was given five job offers- I wish I could take them all, but that would be collusion. The offers are from the Milwaukee Brewers, the Jacksonville Average Joes, the Washington Nationals, the Oakland Athletics, and the Austin Tailgators.

Pros and cons of each opportunity:

Brewers
Pros: Two words: Corey Hart.
Cons: Strange organizational philosophy- they signed Oliver Perez to be their #3 starter after the season was over. My philosophy would have been to sign Oliver Perez as the #3 starter as soon as possible, preferably before the season had even started.

Average Joes
Pros: Modesty is a very good quality for most people to have.
Cons: I think of myself as significantly above average, maybe even the best in the game, so it wouldn't make sense to associate myself with a team that identifies itself as average.

Nationals
Pros: Would love to be able to stick it to my former team, the Phillies, on a regular basis.
Cons: Their main players, Strasburg and Harper, are young kids that don't know much about winning.

Athletics
Pros: Getting a chance to succeed where Billy Beans had failed
Cons: They retracted the offer immediately after making it.

Tailgators:
Pros: Good opportunity to get my new indie rock band (The Heartless Amaros) off the ground
Cons: Every time I type "Tailgators," autocorrect changes it to "Tailgaters."

I'm open to whatever thoughts you have on the topic, but I'll probably do what I think is best and disregard your opinions.