Aging curves for the post-steroid era:

Curtis · 08-17-2014, 04:54 AM

I'm sure you guys have seen this, and it's probably been posted here before, but this was just pointed out to me today, and it seemed like something that both could and should be modeled in Out of the Park Baseball.

Are Aging Curves Changing? | FanGraphs Baseball

RchW · 08-17-2014, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curtis

I'm sure you guys have seen this, and it's probably been posted here before, but this was just pointed out to me today, and it seemed like something that both could and should be modeled in Out of the Park Baseball.

Are Aging Curves Changing? | FanGraphs Baseball

Making small changes in aging and development modifiers should come very close.

I'm not sure the limited scope of this article is sufficient for OOTP to change the core age/dev module. More data needed.

Jason Moyer · 08-17-2014, 09:12 AM

I'd like to see a better study before coming to any conclusions. Show the pre-steroid era (i.e. pre-1960's), divide the steroid era into sections (60's, 70's, 80's, 90's, 00's), etc. Use larger chunks to see how the data changes. There's a lot that could be done with something like this if the data were fleshed out and looked at from different angles.

Questdog · 08-17-2014, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

I'd like to see a better study before coming to any conclusions. Show the pre-steroid era (i.e. pre-1960's), divide the steroid era into sections (60's, 70's, 80's, 90's, 00's), etc. Use larger chunks to see how the data changes. There's a lot that could be done with something like this if the data were fleshed out and looked at from different angles.

The steroid era was the 90's, period.....

DCG12 · 08-17-2014, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

The steroid era was the 90's, period.....

While I agree with you that Jason including 60's 70's and 80's might be a bit much for actual steroid use and not things like greenies I have to think you might want to expand your statement to include the 2000-2010 time period as well

Dyzalot · 08-17-2014, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

The steroid era was the 90's, period.....

Quote:

House has stated that "six or seven" pitchers on every major league staff in the 1970s were "fiddling" with steroids or human growth hormone. He attributes players' willingness to experiment with performance-enhancing substances to the permissiveness of the drug culture of the 1960s, and he believes that steroid use has declined in major league baseball since the 1970s, as players have become more aware of the potential long-term drawbacks.

Tom House - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Wolf · 08-17-2014, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

I'd like to see a better study before coming to any conclusions. Show the pre-steroid era (i.e. pre-1960's), divide the steroid era into sections (60's, 70's, 80's, 90's, 00's), etc. Use larger chunks to see how the data changes. There's a lot that could be done with something like this if the data were fleshed out and looked at from different angles.

^ This.

Curtis · 08-17-2014, 01:44 PM

Pitcher Aging Curves: Introduction | FanGraphs Baseball

Hitter Aging Curves - Beyond the Box Score

ThatSeventiesGuy · 08-17-2014, 02:17 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Questdog View Post
The steroid era was the 90's, period.....

Quote:
House has stated that "six or seven" pitchers on every major league staff in the 1970s were "fiddling" with steroids or human growth hormone. He attributes players' willingness to experiment with performance-enhancing substances to the permissiveness of the drug culture of the 1960s, and he believes that steroid use has declined in major league baseball since the 1970s, as players have become more aware of the potential long-term drawbacks.

Perhaps a better way to put it would be that the 1990s was the "era of rampant use of performance-enhancing substances, by hitters in particular, which led to grossly inflated home run totals". But that's a bit of a mouthful, isn't it?

Questdog · 08-17-2014, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

Tom House - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Tom House was just looking for some publicity, I think.......While they may have wanted to take whatever they could, the stuff just wasn't available......

Questdog · 08-17-2014, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DCG12

While I agree with you that Jason including 60's 70's and 80's might be a bit much for actual steroid use and not things like greenies I have to think you might want to expand your statement to include the 2000-2010 time period as well

I meant the 90's and beyond.....I don't think we are out of the woods quite yet.....

Dyzalot · 08-17-2014, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

Tom House was just looking for some publicity, I think.......While they may have wanted to take whatever they could, the stuff just wasn't available......

Wasn't available? Ask Arnold what was available back when he was Mr. Universe.

RchW · 08-17-2014, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

Wasn't available? Ask Arnold what was available back when he was Mr. Universe.

Or the San Diego Chargers 1964.

Football's first steroids team: the 1963 San Diego Chargers - ESPN

Curtis · 08-17-2014, 03:29 PM

Wow. Totally missing the point.

Le Grande Orange · 08-18-2014, 01:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThatSeventiesGuy

Perhaps a better way to put it would be that the 1990s was the "era of rampant use of performance-enhancing substances, by hitters in particular, which led to grossly inflated home run totals". But that's a bit of a mouthful, isn't it?

That's the commonly accepted premise. Personally, I find such a statement somewhat problematic as it seems to put all the blame for inflated offensive statistics solely on PED usage. There were a lot of other things going on at the same time, such as a spate of new ballparks being opened and the addition of four expansion teams. And that's not counting more hard to quantify things such as changes to strike zones from umpiring, etc.

Jason Moyer · 08-18-2014, 06:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

Tom House was just looking for some publicity, I think.......While they may have wanted to take whatever they could, the stuff just wasn't available......

Tom House has a lot of interesting coincidences following him around. 2 of his teammates having massive HR surges his first full year in the big leagues. Aaron setting a career best AB/HR that year. Nolan Ryan suddenly being able to pitch again after he became his pitching coach in Texas.

Steroids were in every other major professional sport by the early 60's, it takes serious naivety to think baseball wasn't among them.

The Wolf · 08-18-2014, 08:18 AM

Steroid use started a lot earlier than people think. Like in the fifties.

For instance, U.S. Weightlifting Team at the 1960 Olympics was juiced.

https://thinksteroids.com/articles/h...eroids-sports/

Recommended reading for those who think steroid use in baseball started in the nineties.

08-17-2014, 04:54 AM	#1
Curtis Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Watertown, New York Posts: 4,567	Aging curves for the post-steroid era: I'm sure you guys have seen this, and it's probably been posted here before, but this was just pointed out to me today, and it seemed like something that both could and should be modeled in Out of the Park Baseball. Are Aging Curves Changing? \| FanGraphs Baseball

08-17-2014, 09:12 AM	#3
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,061	I'd like to see a better study before coming to any conclusions. Show the pre-steroid era (i.e. pre-1960's), divide the steroid era into sections (60's, 70's, 80's, 90's, 00's), etc. Use larger chunks to see how the data changes. There's a lot that could be done with something like this if the data were fleshed out and looked at from different angles. __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech

08-17-2014, 01:44 PM	#8
Curtis Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Watertown, New York Posts: 4,567	You guys did notice the links to earlier surveys in the series, right? Pitcher Aging Curves: Introduction \| FanGraphs Baseball Hitter Aging Curves - Beyond the Box Score

08-17-2014, 02:17 PM	#9
ThatSeventiesGuy Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Midland, MI Posts: 3,424	Quote: Originally Posted by Questdog View Post The steroid era was the 90's, period..... Quote: House has stated that "six or seven" pitchers on every major league staff in the 1970s were "fiddling" with steroids or human growth hormone. He attributes players' willingness to experiment with performance-enhancing substances to the permissiveness of the drug culture of the 1960s, and he believes that steroid use has declined in major league baseball since the 1970s, as players have become more aware of the potential long-term drawbacks. Perhaps a better way to put it would be that the 1990s was the "era of rampant use of performance-enhancing substances, by hitters in particular, which led to grossly inflated home run totals". But that's a bit of a mouthful, isn't it? __________________ https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...00&postcount=1

08-17-2014, 03:29 PM	#14
Curtis Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Watertown, New York Posts: 4,567	Wow. Totally missing the point.