Looking to get WAR levels in OOTP more in line with MLB

[Murcer]

Originally Posted by wuttang

Dont have exact formula top of my head but that would be the non-fip based war, using runs...more era based imo

The decision to use FIP versus ERA in calculating WAR for pitchers is kind of interesting; I think it's a matter of measuring pitcher skill versus actual performance.

Looking at the top 81 pitchers in IP in MLB last year, the average difference in FIP vs ERA was 0.40 (that's using the absolute value difference). Personally, I'd rather use ERA when calculating WAR for a given season because it's a more accurate illustration of what actually occurred over the course of that season. For me, even if it was luck/bad timing that lead to a particular number of runs allowed, it is what it is and that was the player's value for that particular season.

Now if I'm using a stat to try to project future value, I think FIP-based WAR is the way to go as that's probably going to provide a better stat for projecting what a pitcher might do in the future.

The other thing I wonder is... should pitchers get extra credit in WAR calculations for Saves and Holds? Based on the definitions of those stats, the innings thrown by closers and setup guys take place during critical moments/close games so I think it makes sense to capture that within the WAR stat. But again, this would probably make more sense if you're trying to measure what ACTUALLY happened in a given season versus the skill of a pitcher.

Some time ago, when I realized that the OOTP WAR figures looked funny to me, I decided to create my own measurement system and I do use ERA, Wins, and Holds in those calculations.

Just some general thoughts!

[Murcer]

Originally Posted by jaa36

Another quick test, looking at UZR calculations for the same season.

I summed up all the UZRs for each position. Of course, at each position, net UZR should by definition be zero.

C: -125
1B: +7.2
2B: +20.2
3B: +31.8
SS: +17.5
LF: +0.6
CF: +17.2
RF: +3.9
P: +4.8
Total: -21.8

The overall total is not so bad: -21.8 runs off across a total of 43,740 games started. (That's 162 games x 30 teams x 9 positions = 43,740.)

But obviously the spread of UZR from position to position is hugely problematic. Essentially, the "average" catcher is being recorded as over four runs (nearly half a win) "worse" than average. The rest of the positions are all within a run of each other, but catcher is a huge outlier.

So, as I suspected, catchers are being unfairly penalized in OOTP WAR, and a full season of catching should be rewarded with about an additional 0.5 WAR. For me, this has implications for end of season awards and for hall of fame; I'd be more likely to select a 6.0-WAR catcher than a 6.4-WAR first baseman for the MVP.

Perhaps the devs can fix some of these issues this year, or at least for OOTP 16...

I was curious about this so I did a similar test and got very different results. Over 171,360 games started (I did my test over a number of seasons) I got negative UZR's for every position:
C: -14.6
1B: -11.3
2B: -29.7
3B: -29.6
SS: -27.6
LF: -33.1
CF: -59.1
RF: -47.7
P: -3.9
Total: -256.6

I'm not showing the same prejudice against catchers that you saw but I do have an across the board issue.

Would it be possible to get Markus to share his ZR formula??