Out at the Plate: Rare?

[Donevyn]

I have notice, and perhaps at 50 games is not a great sample, but I've probably had about 20+ 'out at the plate' instances. Either with cut-off man or directly from outfield and I've not once had a 'out'. Anyone else?

Thanks

[slugga27]

I'm confused. You say you've seen it "20+" times and then say you haven't seen it once. Which is it?


FWIW, I haven't had any issues with a lack of outs at the plate.

[Donevyn]

Originally Posted by slugga27

I'm confused. You say you've seen it "20+" times and then say you haven't seen it once. Which is it?


FWIW, I haven't had any issues with a lack of outs at the plate.

I've had 20+ instances of throws to the plate without one called OUT.

[slugga27]

Easy enough. Every play, at the plate or otherwise, is a dice roll. Each dice roll is independent of each other. The fact that 20 in a row resulted in SAFE calls is meaningless, because the 21st could be an OUT. There's a lot of factors that need to be considered, also. Depth of ball, the charge put on by the outfielder, strength of throw, hitting the cutoff man, etc. I wouldn't worry about it too much.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Donevyn

I've had 20+ instances of throws to the plate without one called OUT.

Was this for both teams or just for yours? Either way in a MLB setup with 3 levels of minors and the rate you mention you would have 59 or 119 X 20 HP plays to consider. That's 1180 or 2380 instances. Easy to see why your 20+ might not have come up snake eyes yet.

Edit

There were 509 outs at HP in MLB in 2013. That means 1 out every 9.55 games. Since not all outs at HP are of the outfield to home as you describe then that rate may be 1 in 11-13.

[Fyrestorm3]

1 in 20 doesn't sound like a huge issue to me. I would expect my runners to score around 90% of the time when they're sent. Anything less than that would be making me question my third base coach. And if the next guy sent home in your scenario is called out, you're up to about a 91% success rate. Right on target.

For reference, here's some actual numbers from the MLB (I had to grab these from an old article, so I only have 2007-2009 for comparison):

2007: 5955 times, there was a runner standing on second base when a single was hit. 2210 of those runners stopped at third. Of the 3745 who were sent home, only 239 were out at the plate. That's a 94% success rate.

2008: 5783 runners on second when a single was hit. 2146 stopped at third. Out of 3637 runners, 251 made an out - a 93% success rate.

2009: 5678 runners on second when a single was hit. 2177 stopped at third. Out of 3501 runners, 207 made an out - a 94% success rate.

The MLB is remarkably consistent when it comes to players scoring from second on a single, so it shouldn't be hard at all for OOTP to mimic this. Now, these numbers don't factor in how many runners scored uncontested compared to a play at the plate, but I would seriously doubt there'd be a major difference. It doesn't seem to me like you have a problem here.

[Donevyn]

I should add that at least half, if not more were runners from 2nd that was given the go for home and were safe.

Thanks for all the information folks. Appreciate it. I manage every game, if not each inning and go over the logs in-game when there is scoring (or take over if it's close).

I figured my sample size was way too small. But even with new catcher rules, I would of thought one, would be called out, especially when try for home from 2nd. Oh well...that's baseball!

[The Wolf]

It rarely happens in any of my games, but when it happens, it happens to my team.

[cheo25]

If anything, I've found I've had more runners thrown out at home in OOTP 15 than in OOTP 14. And that's playing basically the same seasons (2014-2016) in both games with the same team (the lousy Astros).

I would chalk it up to the ineptitude of the Astros, but they've got some players with speed (especially those who come up from the minors) and if anything, I've been more conservative with my baserunning in OOTP 15.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by cheo25

If anything, I've found I've had more runners thrown out at home in OOTP 15 than in OOTP 14. And that's playing basically the same seasons (2014-2016) in both games with the same team (the lousy Astros).

I would chalk it up to the ineptitude of the Astros, but they've got some players with speed (especially those who come up from the minors) and if anything, I've been more conservative with my baserunning in OOTP 15.

Also if anything . . . same with me. It's a small concern at this point but it seems home plate putouts are a bit too frequent in my game. I'm waiting to see a trifecta of all three outs at home in one inning! There certainly have been two outs in one inning several times in 2 1/2 "years" of games that I have played so far.

[BusterKing]

Well I got Jose Bautista on my team in right field and he's got a few of them at the plate.

My players got caught also with players with strong arms.

I only control the substitutions and play all my games out, one pitch mode. One of my players stole home the other day, that was nice.

[cheo25]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

Also if anything . . .

I deserved that.

[ThatSeventiesGuy]

Must be a OOTP 15 thing...it was maybe a 60-40 safe to out ratio in OOTP 14, from what I remember. Haven't played any OOTP 15 games yet, since I'm so OCD about setting things up.

[pjh5165]

Not exactly the same thing, but has anyone seen a runner thrown out while trying to score on a wild pitch/passed ball? Through thousands of played out games I have not seen once.

[joefromchicago]

Originally Posted by Fyrestorm3

The MLB is remarkably consistent when it comes to players scoring from second on a single, so it shouldn't be hard at all for OOTP to mimic this. Now, these numbers don't factor in how many runners scored uncontested compared to a play at the plate, but I would seriously doubt there'd be a major difference. It doesn't seem to me like you have a problem here.

Well, there's your problem right there. The numbers you cited, as you admit, don't account for the number of times a runner tries to score from second where there's a play at the plate. Presumably, that percentage is very different from the overall percentage, for a number of easily understandable reasons. For instance, an outfielder typically won't even throw to the plate unless there's a chance of throwing the runner out (except in rare circumstances, like where the runner represents the winning run, when the outfielder will always throw home, regardless of the odds of throwing the runner out). As a result, plays at the plate are almost always close plays. We should expect, then, that the percentage would be closer to 50-50 than 93-7. What that percentage might be I don't know, but if I had 20 straight plays at the plate where the runner is safe, I'd consider that unusual.

[joefromchicago]

Originally Posted by slugga27

Every play, at the plate or otherwise, is a dice roll. Each dice roll is independent of each other. The fact that 20 in a row resulted in SAFE calls is meaningless, because the 21st could be an OUT.

That's the wrong way to look at this issue. You're thinking in terms of the independence of the events, which is true insofar as the next event is not influenced by the preceding events. But the OP is looking at the 20 events as a statistical sample, not as a series. As long as the sampling method is valid, then one should be able to draw inferences from the results.

[Rockfan616]

I've had a few guys thrown out at the plate myself, but not a huge number and it does seem pretty consistent with how often it happens in a RL MLB game. You might only see it once or twice a week when you're watching your favorite team play, and I've only seen it a few times on OOTP. I'm almost up to the All-Star break in my fantasy league season and I only play a small percentage of the games (but I'm in commish mode, so I can use any teams I want)but I don't see this as a huge issue. Like it was said already above, if it happened a lot then you would have to question your 3rd base coach....LOL who do you have, Wendell Kim sending your runners all the time?? :-P

[Fyrestorm3]

Originally Posted by joefromchicago

Well, there's your problem right there. The numbers you cited, as you admit, don't account for the number of times a runner tries to score from second where there's a play at the plate. Presumably, that percentage is very different from the overall percentage, for a number of easily understandable reasons. For instance, an outfielder typically won't even throw to the plate unless there's a chance of throwing the runner out (except in rare circumstances, like where the runner represents the winning run, when the outfielder will always throw home, regardless of the odds of throwing the runner out). As a result, plays at the plate are almost always close plays. We should expect, then, that the percentage would be closer to 50-50 than 93-7. What that percentage might be I don't know, but if I had 20 straight plays at the plate where the runner is safe, I'd consider that unusual.

Fair enough. I might say 80-20, personally, while you think 50-50. Unfortunately, the MLB doesn't keep that kind of stat in a format that's easily accessible - you'd pretty much have to dig through every game log in a season to get solid numbers. So it's all anecdotal, but I feel like there should a higher success rate.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by pjh5165

Not exactly the same thing, but has anyone seen a runner thrown out while trying to score on a wild pitch/passed ball? Through thousands of played out games I have not seen once.

It would be difficult to see it ever because if the runner is thrown out there is no passed ball or wild pitch.

[megamanmatt]

Originally Posted by RchW

It would be difficult to see it ever because if the runner is thrown out there is no passed ball or wild pitch.

Why? Why would you even begin that argument? In what world has that argument ever done any good for anyone?