Orcin Returns

[Orcin]

October 24, 2019

Subject: The Morning After

The spring training preview issue from cbatraderumours.com proclaimed the Louisville Colonels as the team to beat. Fulfilling the prophecy, the Colonels took off out of the gate and never looked back. What put this club over the top? In my opinion, there were three key trade acquisitions that made the difference.

November 2: Peter Springer was acquired in trade from San Francisco. This one is pretty obvious because he is likely to be named MVP in a few weeks.

March 1: Sergio Arroyo was acquired in trade from Seattle. Arroyo turned the tide on left-handed pitchers all year, but especially in the post-season. He filled in for Vargas while he was out and provided right-handed power off the bench.

July 10: Jorge Gonzalez was acquired in trade from Salt Lake City. Gonzalez was 11-1 over the back half of the regular season and 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA in the post-season. He made the rest of the staff better by pushing them all back a slot in the rotation.

These three players blended with the core that was in place to form a world champion. Enjoy those rings, fellas. Especially you, Numbers.

Immediately following a championship is a great time to post the history of my tenure with the Louisville Colonels. Keep in mind that I was not actively running the club from 2009-2014, but the core that I left in place was largely responsible for the titles in 2009 and 2011.



Here is my personal history:



If I win the Manager of the Year Award for 2019, it will be my 7th in 13 seasons to go with 5 championships. As Dizzy Dean once said, “It ain’t braggin’ if you done it.”

[Tyke]

As we say in this neck of the woods: "Not too shabby, Orcin!" Your record compares well with La Russa, Cox & Torre, who were elected to the HoF this week!

[Sal, The Barber]

Originally Posted by Westheim

I think we can stop invoking the Curse of the Southpaws now.

Sal does not usually speak so candidly of his tactics, but since Sal's career is on its backside, Sal will make the exception.


Sal had the voodoo dolls made up for Evans and Milledge. This was not easy to do. Sal had just the few minutes, and Sal is not as quick as he once was. Sal took them out to the yard behind the shop. Sal prepared the blood of the chicken. Sal laid Evans and Milledge on his wood chopping block. And with the force of a few frustrating Louie-ville seasons, he chopped off their left arms. Sal left these arms for the coyotes.


For the record, Sal was not instructed to do this by Mr. Orcin.

[Orcin]

2019 Game Score = 131 (Gold Achievement)



The Colonels were over the 3 million mark in attendance again and back to the level of the glory days. We generated $18M in profit, due to all of the extra post-season games.

Gordon Cooper informed me that the 2020 budget would remain at $136 million. That is plenty of money to win a championship.

It is not all good news around here though. Our star left-fielder, 27-year-old Ed Harris, declined his team option for 2020 as expected. Long-time trainer Ragnvard Borgstrom retired. The budget will have to be trimmed as usual to make room for newly-wealthy beneficiaries of the arbitration hearings. Life goes on.


Salary Obligations

Guaranteed Contracts:
SS Luis Vargas ($40M through 2023)
CF Peter Springer ($37.5M through 2022)
1B Jose Martinez ($21M through 2021)
SP Michael Bowles ($20M through 2022)
SP Fletcher Holmes ($12M through 2022)
SP Alec Potvin ($10M though 2020, plus team option at $12M in 2021)
3B Phil Gillespie ($9M through 2020)
CL Santiago Flores ($8M through 2021, plus player option at $5M in 2022)
C Ryan Edwards ($6M through 2022)

Key Arbitration Eligible Players:
3B Sergio Arroyo (3.4 years): $5.8M projected salary
RF Jose Diaz (4.4 years): $5M projected salary
LF Hector Castro (3.5 years): $4M projected salary
SP Chris Carter (3.3 years): $2.8M projected salary
MR Brendan Polk (3.6 years): $2.2M projected salary
MR Mike Kennedy (3.2 years): $1.6M projected salary

Key Free Agents:
LF Ed Harris (compensation eligible, will offer arbitration)
SP Jorge Gonzalez
2B Lance Morrison

All arbitration eligible players will be tendered an offer. Carter and Diaz are candidates to be traded. The other four players will be considered for long-term contracts.

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2020 Planning

This is a stable world champion team, so the analysis will be easier and less detailed. I will just focus on the areas that need attention rather than plod through a discussion of the entire 40-man roster.

The biggest issue among position players is the impending free agency of LF Ed Harris. I could make an offer to sign Harris before the deadline, but he will be too expensive for my self-imposed $100 million player payroll anyway. I have several good replacements under contract, and it makes more sense to turn the position over to one of them. The most likely player to be the opening day left fielder is World Series hero Sergio Arroyo. The second player on the depth chart is Jose Diaz. A third, but still attractive, option is top prospect Steve Evans. Two of these three players will make the 25-man roster.

All three of these candidates are right-handed, and I want it that way. The post-season convinced me that we need a third right-handed power hitter in the lineup with Martinez and Seaman. There are just too many good left-handed starters out there. Either the left fielder or Seaman will bat behind Martinez against lefties. Springer and Gillespie provide enough power from the left side, and can surround Martinez against right-handers.

There are several good candidates to be the fourth outfielder. Since I will start two right-handed outfielders (McGinnis being the other), I want a left-handed bat in that role. The incumbent is Hector Castro, and he will be hard to unseat. There are two high-potential players at AAA, Kimi Mizuno and Bill Payne, that will give it a try. Jack Bunney is also still around, but he is a long shot at this point and probably has more value as trade bait. The versatility of Diaz and Arroyo might give me the luxury of carrying only one backup infielder. If so, one of the young players might make the roster anyway.

The other important issue is a replacement for Jorge Gonzalez. Again, the obvious answer is to sign Gonzalez himself, but he will be 38 years old and I prefer to find a more long-term answer. Pursuing Gonzalez on a one or two-year contract as a fourth starter is appealing, but I don’t think he would do that unless he is still available next spring. It’s an unlikely scenario given the second half and post-season that he enjoyed. The free agent class will be light on starting pitchers, and that will help Gonzalez also.

I need an ace. I plan to trade multiple pitchers and/or prospects if necessary, but I will get one. The first choice is Seattle’s Carlos Caro. He won’t be available, but I will try anyway. The second choice is Cristo Rodriguez of Milwaukee. I believe that the Eagles can be persuaded to part with him for the right offer. The price will be steep, but I have to do it. I have learned that you can always find third, fourth, and fifth starters. Swing and miss pitchers are rare and hard to get. I am convinced that I can’t win without one.

I also need to hire a trainer and a minor league pitching coach. Lexington PC Rafael Gutierrez has agreed to work with the young talent in Evansville for the final year of his contract so I will be hiring a pitching coach for AAA.

[gehrig38]

Originally Posted by Orcin

I need an ace. I plan to trade multiple pitchers and/or prospects if necessary, but I will get one. The first choice is Seattle’s Carlos Caro. He won’t be available, but I will try anyway. The second choice is Cristo Rodriguez of Milwaukee. I believe that the Eagles can be persuaded to part with him for the right offer. The price will be steep, but I have to do it. I have learned that you can always find third, fourth, and fifth starters. Swing and miss pitchers are rare and hard to get. I am convinced that I can’t win without one.

Agreed on all points. The one caution I throw your way, and I am sure you know it already. If/when you do this deal, and it will likely call for you to give up 2-3 maybe even 4 arms unless you give up a blue chip bat, make sure it's a guy that can stay healthy.
The worst thing that could happen is you do make this deal, get your stud, give up 1-2 ML arms and 1-2 top prospects, he goes down and the 2-3 arms you had 'in reserve' are now pitching for the other guy. Now you have to go back out and get another, and you're paying through the teeth (though it's unlikely during the season it can be done short of giving them your roster).
I always look at my big league starting rotation as a 7-8 man unit depending on my farm system. Assuming 1 will for sure miss 1-2 months.
Actually my real method is to look at my staff and see who is going to take 8-16 starts from the arms NOT in my opening day rotation.

[Orcin]

Contract Negotiations

This is not exactly what you expected. No players are involved.

I signed a five-year contract when I returned to the Colonels on November 1, 2014. I was open to discuss an extension after last season, but owner Gordon Cooper was not interested. He was not happy with a fourth consecutive first-round exit, and preferred to wait until the end of this season. Here we are, and Gordon was obviously much happier with this year’s outcome. We met in his office this morning to discuss a new deal.

Gordon offered a new five-year contract with a 10% salary increase. I politely declined. I had a different and more imaginative approach, and I was bargaining from a position of strength as opposed to what might have been done last year.

“Gordon, you took $18 million in profit out of the team this year. The franchise is poised for a run of championships to rival the first one. I think my share of the pie should be a little bigger than six figures per year. I want to be the highest-paid GM in the CBA.”

Gordon said that was acceptable to him. He would adjust the salary for the upcoming season, which did not really increase it by that much, and he would add an escalator clause to ensure that I remained the CBA’s highest-paid GM over the contract term.

He relaxed and asked if I wanted another espresso. However, I wasn’t finished talking.

“Also, I want to participate in the earnings of the franchise, and build equity as I help to grow the value of this business venture. I want a 10% ownership interest in the team.”

Gordon quickly said that was out of the question. The franchise had been owned by the Cooper family since its inception, and that would never change because he intended to pass on the ownership to his son someday – 100% of the ownership. I would have to be satisfied to be the highest-paid employee in my profession.

I explained to Gordon that this point was not negotiable to me, just like the “do not fire” clause in our first contract. “I spent the last year in limbo, and it made me realize that I want more security to stay here.”

The discussions continued for a little while, but no progress was made. The existing contract has a 60-day negotiating window, and so it does not expire until December 31, 2019. We agreed to meet again after the Winter Meetings to conclude the negotiations.

I believe that Gordon hopes time and the excitement of preparing for a new season will soften my demand for an ownership stake. If so, he misjudges my resolve.

[Westheim]

Uh-oh.

After the break: Mr. Orcin buys a one-way train ticket to Nashville.

[Winnipeg59]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Contract Negotiations

Gordon offered a new five-year contract with a 10% salary increase. I politely declined.

“Gordon... I want to be the highest-paid GM in the CBA.”

Gordon said that was acceptable to him. He would adjust the salary for the upcoming season, which did not really increase it by that much, and he would add an escalator clause to ensure that I remained the CBA’s highest-paid GM over the contract term.

“Also, I want to participate in the earnings of the franchise, and build equity as I help to grow the value of this business venture. I want a 10% ownership interest in the team.”

THIS, although clearly it might be a little too complicated, or certainly some VERSION OF THIS type of thing would be a "NEXT LEVEL" improvement in OOTP. Love it!

And, of course, good luck with the negotiations. If they go south please try to stay in the division out of spite.

[golander40]

A new twist might be interesting --- League expansion,new owners offer you ownership interest in the new franchise.
Start a franchise from scratch -- plot lines -- might include uniform/logos,stealing staff,overall "Game Plan" for a new franchise. etc. -- heck I can think of quite a few "Side Stories" that could be fun.
Let your imagination run amok
Gil "The Ancient One"

[gehrig38]

Ok you can't do that. You can't leave us on the ledge, and then not post an update for 2 days, you just can't....
I keep hitting refresh....

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by gehrig38

Ok you can't do that. You can't leave us on the ledge, and then not post an update for 2 days, you just can't....
I keep hitting refresh....

I guess Mr. Orcin is in some state of espresso shock after staying in the office for two days and nights. How about a nice glass of water?

[Orcin]

November 1, 2019 (BNN)

Subject: Major Trade Announced in CBA

The story of the day in the baseball world is the major trade between the Louisville Colonels and Milwaukee Eagles. The Colonels will receive 24-year-old all-star starting pitcher Cristo Rodríguez in the deal, while the Eagles will pick up 29-year-old starting pitcher Alec Potvin, 27-year-old starting pitcher Chris Carter and 24-year-old right fielder Jack Bunney.



This was a seemingly out-of-the-blue move that nobody saw coming. A Louisville insider familiar with the negotiations called the trade "a shocker that people will be talking about for quite some time." Neither general manager could be reached for comment.

In his career Potvin has 95 victories and 49 defeats with a 3.29 ERA. Carter is 32-18 lifetime with a 3.73 ERA. Both pitchers will be in the starting rotation for the Eagles next season. Bunney, a .254 career hitter, will take over center field duties for Milwaukee.

Since joining the league, Rodríguez has compiled an ERA of 3.28 with a career record of 74-47. He has 1029 strikeouts in 1189.1 innings and has held opponents to a .236 batting average.



Rodriguez will join former teammate Fletcher Holmes and lefty Michael Bowles to give the Colonels a formidable trio at the top of their rotation. The Colonels are expected to turn the fourth and fifth starter jobs over to a pair of youngsters: AAA Pitcher of the Year Markus Thomas, and high-potential lefty Dean Daniels.

[illeracula]

Originally Posted by Orcin

A Louisville insider familiar with the negotiations called the trade "a shocker that people will be talking about for quite some time."

Was that Sal? Was this a barber shop deal?

Originally Posted by Orcin

Neither general manager could be reached for comment.

How convenient....

[gehrig38]

Originally Posted by Orcin

The Colonels will receive 24-year-old all-star starting pitcher Cristo Rodríguez in the deal,

The only number I care about in this deal. This is a HUGE coup if you can keep him for awhile.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by gehrig38

The only number I care about in this deal. This is a HUGE coup if you can keep him for awhile.

Yes, this is essentially trading a 29-year-old pitcher for a better 24-year-old pitcher. Rodriguez is signed for two more years at $11M and then $14.5M.

[Orcin]

2019 CBA Post-Season Awards

Most Valuable Player:
Patriot – LF Daniel Benjamin, New York Monarchs (.299/.384/.634, 51 HR, 116 RBI)
Federal – CF Peter Springer, Louisville Colonels (.345/.429/.596, 34 HR, 104 RBI)

Best Pitcher:
Patriot – SP Robinson Luna, Atlanta Flames (24-5, 3.12 ERA, 265 IP, 241 K)
Federal – SP Jorge Costello, San Francisco Seals (22-6, 3.19 ERA, 237 IP, 173 K)

Rookie of the Year:
Patriot – RF Travis Groves, Baltimore Robins (.279/.347/.527, 25 HR, 77 RBI)
Federal – LF Fernando Escamilla, Chicago Cougars (.328/.394/.465, 7 HR, 58 RBI)

Manager of the Year:
Patriot – Will Walker, Atlanta Flames (100-62, Patriot League Champion)
Federal – Ben Blair, Louisville Colonels (109-53, CBA Champion)

Gold Glove:
CF Peter Springer, Louisville Colonels (335 total chances, 0 errors)

Executive of the Year
The Louisville Colonels called a press conference to announce that general manager Otto Orcin had been named CBA Executive of the Year earlier in the day. Staffers congratulated the 46-year-old baseball guru as he approached the podium.

"This city has allowed me to craft a winning ball club," said Orcin. "I would like to thank the staff, the players, and most of all the fans that have supported us all the way. Here's to many more successful seasons for the Louisville Colonels!"

Orcin led Louisville to a 109-53 record this year and a first place finish in the Federal League Midwest Division. The Colonels won the recently-completed World Series in a sweep over the Atlanta Flames. The award was Orcin’s seventh in his career.

One last time:
Peter Springer: MVP, batting champion, Gold Glove, 13 WAR, 1.026 OPS, 139 runs scored, 80 extra-base hits, 365 total bases, 62 stolen bases… wow, what a season!

[illeracula]

Originally Posted by Orcin

One last time:
Peter Springer: MVP, batting champion, Gold Glove, 13 WAR, 1.026 OPS, 139 runs scored, 80 extra-base hits, 365 total bases, 62 stolen bases… wow, what a season!

The stat that jumped out at me was those 61 strikeouts, for a guy to up numbers like that and strike out only 61 times thats impressive. Not to mention he had more steals than strikeouts. I wonder how often that has happened.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by illeracula

Not to mention he had more steals than strikeouts. I wonder how often that has happened.

That one happens more often than one might think. In my dynasty over there, one of my infielders stole 42 bags and whiffed 18 times last season. Granted, he didn't have an OPS over 1 (more close to .800), but at least steals > strikeouts is something that is rather common.

[gehrig38]

In almost 30 years of the IBL 36 HR 52 SB is the closest I've ever come to this number, that's an insane season. Validation on the signing for sure.