Home Field Advantage?

Mr. Baseball · 08-14-2013, 02:47 PM

I've been playing OOTP for years, and I've always observed that there doesn't seem to be much differentiation between how teams play at home and on the road. Maybe it's just odd luck on my part, but this seems to be my experience. In modern MLB the home-away splits are typically severe, but not in OOTP. Is there some setting I'm missing somewhere? Has anyone else had problems with this?

Le Grande Orange · 08-14-2013, 02:56 PM

Haven't looked at it in detail, but from what I recall of others posting some data, the advantage still isn't as strong as it ought to be as compared to real life.

(An interesting related question is whether the home field advantage is weaker, stronger, or about the same in the minor leagues. Not sure anyone has done a real-life examination of that. I do have the home and away records for every affiliated minor league club going back to about 2005 or so, but have never bothered to run them through Excel since there is some tedious format converting necessary first.)

mjj55409 · 08-14-2013, 03:00 PM

From what I understand, this is one of those (unpublished) "fixes" in the latest patch...the home field advantage is more...advantageous.

Questdog · 08-14-2013, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mjj55409

From what I understand, this is one of those (unpublished) "fixes" in the latest patch...the home field advantage is more...advantageous.

This is true. Before the latest patch, the hometeam had an average advantage of .010 in OPS. In real life it is around .040. I reported this to Markus and he says he made adjustments. I haven't taken the time to see what the new numbers actually are yet, however.

Edit: Checked wins and losses quickly (OPS takes longer to gather)....MLB home teams win about 54% of the time....my latest 32 team league had a 53.4% home team average.....only a one season, average, but it's nearly 3000 games, so I think it looks pretty good....I'll check the OPS numbers when I have the time...

SteveP · 08-14-2013, 04:56 PM

At the start of each game, you will see that the home team is given a win probability edge of a few percent. This is about the same as retrosheet gives at the start of the game logs that they produce, and I assume is based on actual results over all the games in their DB.

Where the probability edge shown in OOTP comes from is outside my knowledge. It is certainly possible that it's based on what the game engine is designed to produce. In any event, the edge in real life isn't huge -- less than in other sports, I think.

Le Grande Orange · 08-14-2013, 05:48 PM

I would note it's not just a matter of the aggregate home winning percentage coming near to the real-life record of .540 but also the distribution of the records. On average 80% of teams should finish with a home record that is better than its away record regardless of its overall record. That might mean a 30-51 record at home and 25-55 on the road for a team finishing 55-106 for example.

RchW · 08-14-2013, 06:00 PM

One must also consider that talent distribution in OOTP, both solo and online leagues is not likely to be the same as real life. So even if there is a home field advantage built in, loaded teams and woeful teams may skew the results.

It's my impression that talent distribution may explain several discrepancies we see in OOTP. Not sure how that can be avoided.

Ts-Rock · 08-14-2013, 06:00 PM

this is good news. I was just talking to guys in my online lg (BSA) about the trend in the "other" league losing

- Half of the the CL's World Series teams (4 of 8) have been "upset" teams. 3 Wild Cards and a 82 win division winner
- 5 of the 8 #1 seeds in the CL have lost in the FIRST ROUND!
- 6 of the 8 #1 seeds in the CL have NOT made the playoffs
- ONLY Regina (Austin) as the #1 seed has made the World Series

2010: #1 seed Springdale (Grn) is swept by 82 win Pocatello in 1st Rd, Poc makes WS
2011: #1 seed Pocatello loses in 1st Rd to WC KC, KC makes WS
2012: #1 seed Regina (Austin) makes WS
2013: #1 seed Regina (Austin) makes WS
2014: #1 seed Greenville loses in LCS to Toronto 4-1, Tor makes WS
2015: #1 seed Toronto loses in 1st Rd to WC Jersey, Jersey makes WS
2016: #1 seed Greenville loses in 1st Rd to Toronto 4-3, Toronto makes WS
2017: #1 seed Jersey loses in 1st Rd to Austin

this makes more sense now seeing as there was no real advantage to the home teams

Questdog · 08-14-2013, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

One must also consider that talent distribution in OOTP, both solo and online leagues is not likely to be the same as real life. So even if there is a home field advantage built in, loaded teams and woeful teams may skew the results.

It's my impression that talent distribution may explain several discrepancies we see in OOTP. Not sure how that can be avoided.

That should have no effect on home field advantage; if you are a terrible team, you should be a little less terrible at home and awesome teams will be more awesome at home......season to season discrepancy in home vs road records will occur naturally due to the small sample size of 81 games, but if you sample very large numbers of teams and seasons, you should see what the actual effects of home field advantage are in the game......I don't know how Markus programmed this in and the method would determine if there is a skew of the results.....say if all teams get a 5 point boost to their batting averages at home, then teams with low averages should have a larger home/road differential in their W/L records over the long haul, since the 5 points would represent a large percentage increase for them than teams with high batting averages.....though, if it's programmed to be a boost by percentage, then all classes of teams should show virtually the same difference in Home/Road wins and losses.....though, even if their is a skew, it will be very small, as 5 points of average is nearly the same percentage for bad teams as good teams.....

Childress · 08-19-2013, 02:43 PM

The new- and long overdue- Home Field Advantage parameters work as advertised with the modern era Quickstart but not with the Historical option. This is based on the Demo.

Ts-Rock · 01-09-2014, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

This is true. Before the latest patch, the hometeam had an average advantage of .010 in OPS. In real life it is around .040. I reported this to Markus and he says he made adjustments. I haven't taken the time to see what the new numbers actually are yet, however.

Edit: Checked wins and losses quickly (OPS takes longer to gather)....MLB home teams win about 54% of the time....my latest 32 team league had a 53.4% home team average.....only a one season, average, but it's nearly 3000 games, so I think it looks pretty good....I'll check the OPS numbers when I have the time...

Questdog, did you ever see the OPS change? Is there an official number that shows home field advantage in OOTP14?

r0nster · 01-09-2014, 06:48 PM

That's one of the things I love about Baseball ... it isn't nearly as predicatable. The point is like basketball you KNOW the home team will win roughly 80 to 85% of the home games. where as in baseball there have been many teams who did so great on the road and poorly at home and the reverse obviously is true too. My point is home field advantage in Baseball is largely cosmetic

EvilGenius · 01-09-2014, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by r0nster

That's one of the things I love about Baseball ... it isn't nearly as predicatable. The point is like basketball you KNOW the home team will win roughly 80 to 85% of the home games. where as in baseball there have been many teams who did so great on the road and poorly at home and the reverse obviously is true too. My point is home field advantage in Baseball is largely cosmetic

This is one of the odd quirks of baseball. In nearly every other sport (football, basketball, hockey, soccer, right on down to ping pong), the field dimensions are identical. So really, the only disadvantage is the crowd and the burden of traveling.

Baseball has the distinction of having radically different fields. You would think this would heavily favor the home team, since it directly affects game strategy. Baseball is subject to the same effects of the crowd and travel, yet somehow statistics show there is less of a home field advantage.

Home Advantage In Sports: A Scientific Study Of How Much It Affects Winning - SBNation.com

Mr. Baseball · 01-09-2014, 10:11 PM

I think the Colorado Rockies probably have the strongest 'home field advantage' in baseball due to them being adjusted to playing at a high altitude. Or maybe the Blue Jays because they have turf. Turf you get completely different bounces, etc.

Fyrestorm3 · 01-09-2014, 10:20 PM

I've seen so many outfielders misplay balls off the Green Monster that I'm amazed the Red Sox don't always have a major home field advantage. It definitely is one of the biggest quirks of the game.

08-14-2013, 03:00 PM	#3
mjj55409 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2002 Posts: 1,166	From what I understand, this is one of those (unpublished) "fixes" in the latest patch...the home field advantage is more...advantageous. __________________ FABL -- Chicago Chiefs

08-14-2013, 06:00 PM	#7
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	One must also consider that talent distribution in OOTP, both solo and online leagues is not likely to be the same as real life. So even if there is a home field advantage built in, loaded teams and woeful teams may skew the results. It's my impression that talent distribution may explain several discrepancies we see in OOTP. Not sure how that can be avoided. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

08-14-2013, 06:00 PM	#8
Ts-Rock Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: H'ville - Home of 6x BSA World Series Champion Posts: 319	this is good news. I was just talking to guys in my online lg (BSA) about the trend in the "other" league losing - Half of the the CL's World Series teams (4 of 8) have been "upset" teams. 3 Wild Cards and a 82 win division winner - 5 of the 8 #1 seeds in the CL have lost in the FIRST ROUND! - 6 of the 8 #1 seeds in the CL have NOT made the playoffs - ONLY Regina (Austin) as the #1 seed has made the World Series 2010: #1 seed Springdale (Grn) is swept by 82 win Pocatello in 1st Rd, Poc makes WS 2011: #1 seed Pocatello loses in 1st Rd to WC KC, KC makes WS 2012: #1 seed Regina (Austin) makes WS 2013: #1 seed Regina (Austin) makes WS 2014: #1 seed Greenville loses in LCS to Toronto 4-1, Tor makes WS 2015: #1 seed Toronto loses in 1st Rd to WC Jersey, Jersey makes WS 2016: #1 seed Greenville loses in 1st Rd to Toronto 4-3, Toronto makes WS 2017: #1 seed Jersey loses in 1st Rd to Austin this makes more sense now seeing as there was no real advantage to the home teams __________________ Hendersonville Hitmen of the BSA 5x WS Champ (2010, 2013-15, 2017) 5x OOTY (2010-11, 2013-14, 2017) 2010 114-48, World Series Champions 2011 109-53, 1st Rd Loss to N.F. 2012. 96-66, 1st Rd Loss to L.A. 2013 112-50, World Series Champions 2014 119-43, World Series Champions 2015 124-38, World Series Champions 2016 111-51, LCS Loss to L.A. 2017 110-52, World Series Champions 2018 101-61, 1st Rd Loss to Baffin Island 2019. 98-64, LCS Loss to Baffin Island 2020 103-59,

01-09-2014, 10:11 PM	#14
Mr. Baseball All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Mequon, Wisconsin Posts: 1,020	I think the Colorado Rockies probably have the strongest 'home field advantage' in baseball due to them being adjusted to playing at a high altitude. Or maybe the Blue Jays because they have turf. Turf you get completely different bounces, etc. __________________ Duluth Danger (HBL) Dynasty Report -- Online League Franchise Duluth - 1985/1989 North League Champions!

08-14-2013, 02:47 PM	#1
Mr. Baseball All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Mequon, Wisconsin Posts: 1,020	Home Field Advantage? I've been playing OOTP for years, and I've always observed that there doesn't seem to be much differentiation between how teams play at home and on the road. Maybe it's just odd luck on my part, but this seems to be my experience. In modern MLB the home-away splits are typically severe, but not in OOTP. Is there some setting I'm missing somewhere? Has anyone else had problems with this? __________________ Duluth Danger (HBL) Dynasty Report -- Online League Franchise Duluth - 1985/1989 North League Champions!

08-14-2013, 02:56 PM	#2
Le Grande Orange Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Up There Posts: 15,642	Haven't looked at it in detail, but from what I recall of others posting some data, the advantage still isn't as strong as it ought to be as compared to real life. (An interesting related question is whether the home field advantage is weaker, stronger, or about the same in the minor leagues. Not sure anyone has done a real-life examination of that. I do have the home and away records for every affiliated minor league club going back to about 2005 or so, but have never bothered to run them through Excel since there is some tedious format converting necessary first.)

08-14-2013, 04:56 PM	#5
SteveP Moderator Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,109	At the start of each game, you will see that the home team is given a win probability edge of a few percent. This is about the same as retrosheet gives at the start of the game logs that they produce, and I assume is based on actual results over all the games in their DB. Where the probability edge shown in OOTP comes from is outside my knowledge. It is certainly possible that it's based on what the game engine is designed to produce. In any event, the edge in real life isn't huge -- less than in other sports, I think.

08-14-2013, 05:48 PM	#6
Le Grande Orange Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Up There Posts: 15,642	I would note it's not just a matter of the aggregate home winning percentage coming near to the real-life record of .540 but also the distribution of the records. On average 80% of teams should finish with a home record that is better than its away record regardless of its overall record. That might mean a 30-51 record at home and 25-55 on the road for a team finishing 55-106 for example.

08-19-2013, 02:43 PM	#10
Childress Minors (Double A) Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 180	The new- and long overdue- Home Field Advantage parameters work as advertised with the modern era Quickstart but not with the Historical option. This is based on the Demo.

01-09-2014, 06:48 PM	#12
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,083	That's one of the things I love about Baseball ... it isn't nearly as predicatable. The point is like basketball you KNOW the home team will win roughly 80 to 85% of the home games. where as in baseball there have been many teams who did so great on the road and poorly at home and the reverse obviously is true too. My point is home field advantage in Baseball is largely cosmetic

01-09-2014, 10:20 PM	#15
Fyrestorm3 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Tampa Bay, Massachusetts Posts: 2,928	I've seen so many outfielders misplay balls off the Green Monster that I'm amazed the Red Sox don't always have a major home field advantage. It definitely is one of the biggest quirks of the game.