Preseason prediction oddities

rudoggy · 01-08-2014, 10:50 AM

Something I have noticed, and not sure if it is a bug, or just oddity.

In the preseason predictions, it lists Casey Janssen and Tazawa as being in the top pitchers for the upcoming year with 19 and 13 wins respectively. Neither is plugged into a starting role, Casey has not registered a "start" in 8 years, and has stamina at 3. Tazawa, while having a stamina of 5, has never started a game. While I assume they get on this list due to having decent ratings overall, I am not sure they were "meant" to make the list by developers. Maybe I am wrong, I just wouldnt expect to see relievers on the list as their "wins" are not the same as a starters "wins".

Anyway, just an observation.

Bluenoser · 01-08-2014, 10:59 AM

I see relievers on the list occasionally, never thought much of it myself. If their numbers warranted them being mentioned it was good enough for me.

I have seen relievers with more than 10 wins on a regular basis too.

rudoggy · 01-08-2014, 11:04 AM

Oh i agree, it statistically happens. 19 is a bit high for my taste, but i am sure it is built on predictions based on ratings and what not. I just wasnt sure if relievers were supposed to make the list.

Bluenoser · 01-08-2014, 11:11 AM

I see a closer on it almost every season. High saves, low era projection usually does it.

I'm sure the wins thing has a lot to do with your league pitching settings too, ie: use of relievers often/very often tends to see them get higher win totals.

19 is a bit high but I've seen over 20 on occasion, very rare but have seen it.

Cinnamon J. Scudworth · 01-08-2014, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rudoggy

Something I have noticed, and not sure if it is a bug, or just oddity.

In the preseason predictions, it lists Casey Janssen and Tazawa as being in the top pitchers for the upcoming year with 19 and 13 wins respectively. Neither is plugged into a starting role, Casey has not registered a "start" in 8 years, and has stamina at 3. Tazawa, while having a stamina of 5, has never started a game. While I assume they get on this list due to having decent ratings overall, I am not sure they were "meant" to make the list by developers. Maybe I am wrong, I just wouldnt expect to see relievers on the list as their "wins" are not the same as a starters "wins".

Anyway, just an observation.

Keep in mind that the Preseason Predictions are a result of OOTP actually running a fast-sim of 3 seasons and averaging the results. So it's based on one set of possible outcomes of actual performance, not extrapolated from ratings.

JohnHoward · 01-08-2014, 02:14 PM

Another documented instance of the well-known infatuation of the AI with Casey Janssen. Search these threads for "Janssenitis".

le receveur · 01-08-2014, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnHoward

Another documented instance of the well-known infatuation of the AI with Casey Janssen. Search these threads for "Janssenitis".

and so AI should be. Casey is great. (but yeah, not Top 10 worthy, i don't even think he was the top WAR getter in the Jays bullpen....)

added: yep, based on fWAR Delabar is more valuable

The Game · 01-08-2014, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rudoggy

Oh i agree, it statistically happens. 19 is a bit high for my taste, but i am sure it is built on predictions based on ratings and what not. I just wasnt sure if relievers were supposed to make the list.

I have had Closers make the list almost every year.
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3622071

no clue about MR.
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3622624

MarkInCincy · 01-09-2014, 07:50 AM

I remember having an RP once (OOTP 6.5) with a stamina of 5 (1-10) on a team where the rotation was 4 SP's with a 6 and 1 a 7. I slotted him as my CL, #1 setup, and #1 MR. He ended up with a record of 19-1 with 30 saves with 2 blown saves. He had 90+ appearances and close to 250 IP

JohnHoward · 01-09-2014, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkInCincy

I remember having an RP once (OOTP 6.5) with a stamina of 5 (1-10) on a team where the rotation was 4 SP's with a 6 and 1 a 7. I slotted him as my CL, #1 setup, and #1 MR. He ended up with a record of 19-1 with 30 saves with 2 blown saves. He had 90+ appearances and close to 250 IP

1974 Los Angeles Dodgers Batting, Pitching, & Fielding Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

01-09-2014, 07:50 AM	#9
MarkInCincy All Star Reserve Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Cincinnait, OH (WestSider) Posts: 657	I remember having an RP once (OOTP 6.5) with a stamina of 5 (1-10) on a team where the rotation was 4 SP's with a 6 and 1 a 7. I slotted him as my CL, #1 setup, and #1 MR. He ended up with a record of 19-1 with 30 saves with 2 blown saves. He had 90+ appearances and close to 250 IP Last edited by MarkInCincy; 01-09-2014 at 07:55 AM.

01-08-2014, 10:50 AM	#1
rudoggy Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: In my own little world Posts: 430	Preseason prediction oddities Something I have noticed, and not sure if it is a bug, or just oddity. In the preseason predictions, it lists Casey Janssen and Tazawa as being in the top pitchers for the upcoming year with 19 and 13 wins respectively. Neither is plugged into a starting role, Casey has not registered a "start" in 8 years, and has stamina at 3. Tazawa, while having a stamina of 5, has never started a game. While I assume they get on this list due to having decent ratings overall, I am not sure they were "meant" to make the list by developers. Maybe I am wrong, I just wouldnt expect to see relievers on the list as their "wins" are not the same as a starters "wins". Anyway, just an observation.

01-08-2014, 10:59 AM	#2
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 14,214	I see relievers on the list occasionally, never thought much of it myself. If their numbers warranted them being mentioned it was good enough for me. I have seen relievers with more than 10 wins on a regular basis too.

01-08-2014, 11:04 AM	#3
rudoggy Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: In my own little world Posts: 430	Oh i agree, it statistically happens. 19 is a bit high for my taste, but i am sure it is built on predictions based on ratings and what not. I just wasnt sure if relievers were supposed to make the list.

01-08-2014, 11:11 AM	#4
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 14,214	I see a closer on it almost every season. High saves, low era projection usually does it. I'm sure the wins thing has a lot to do with your league pitching settings too, ie: use of relievers often/very often tends to see them get higher win totals. 19 is a bit high but I've seen over 20 on occasion, very rare but have seen it.

01-08-2014, 02:14 PM	#6
JohnHoward All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 624	Another documented instance of the well-known infatuation of the AI with Casey Janssen. Search these threads for "Janssenitis".