Terry Ryan Hands Over the Reigns: A Minnesota Twins Dynasty Report

[Mike Lowe]

Twins GM Ryan announces retirement, understudy Lowe to take reigns

On the eve of Opening Day, Twins GM Terry Ryan, having recently rejoined the Twins front office in 2011 after originally stepping down in 2007, has decided to retire. He leaves the general manager position to a younger understudy, Mike Lowe. Ryan wanted to ensure the team made it through the 2012 offseason, and the plan to have Lowe step in had reportedly been in the works since the end of the 2012 regular season. More details are expected to emerge on the move, although it might be some time before the Twins feel the impact Lowe will make on the team.

Lowe could not be reached for comment, but has been known to be a patient developer of talent who is a believer in the crede, "sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make."

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Start: 2013, Opening Day
Sim Schedule: One Game Day Per Calendar Day (1:1)
Roster: 2013 All-In-One
Act as GM only
Cannot be fired (for just 2013)

Most settings are default or changed for even more MLB realism, such as:

Global Setup:
Scouting: High
Injury Frequency: Normal
All ratings: 20-80, no overall, no stars, no potential < actual

Player Options:
Player Personality and Morale System: On

AI Options:
Lineups: Sabremetrics
Ratings Weight: 40%
Current Year Stats Weight: 30%
Previous Year Stats Weight: 20%
2 Years Ago Stats Weight: 10%

AI Trading Frequency: Very Low
Trading Difficulty: High
Trading Preference: Favor Prospects

League Rules:
Draft: 40 rounds, generateds 45 rounds worth of players
CBA Enabled

[Mike Lowe]

Mike Lowe Journal Entry - Wednesday, June 5, 2013
A Potential MVP, and Pitching

I thought a fun place to start this dynasty would be on the eve of the 2013 draft, in which the Minnesota Twins hold the 4th overall pick.

I've watched every single game thus far, and actually started the year controlling the intricacies of the MLB club and handling the team, in-game, "from the dugout." Around the middle of May, I decided that it would be best to let Gardenhire do his thing, and have only meddled a bit since then.

The team currently sits at 27-31, having just blown a 3-0 lead in the 9th inning to the Royals to lose 4-3 (Perkins' 3rd blown save, 2nd this week). We're 7.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox for the division lead (Detroit is 2 games back), and we're 6 games out of the Wild Card.

Joe Mauer appears to be the league MVP thus far, with league leading stats of .369 average, 1.075 OPS, and a 4.1 WAR. He also had a 15 game hitting streak at one point during the year.

Going into the season, I thought the Twins' biggest area of concern was starting pitching, so I immediately offered 35 year old free agent Roy Oswalt a 1 year, $4.6M contract. At the very least, I wanted someone at the top of the rotation who could give us some quality innings to help out the bullpen, which to me looked pretty decent actually at the start of the year, especially the back end with Burton (setup) and Perkins (closer). Oswalt signed a few days later.

I also ended up claiming Ubaldo Jimenez from Cleveland who while getting roughed up while with Cleveland, has pitched well with Minnesota thus far (2.64 K/BB ratio, 0.29 HR/9, 2.91 FIP).

We've had a couple players go between AAA and MLB, but here is how the current pitching staff is looking today as well as their stats:




And their advanced stats (which I use more than anything):




Some other pitching tidbits:
Scott Diamond, recently called up from AAA, has started two games (15.2 innings) and has yet to give up a run.

Next up, I'll get into some of the details of the lineup, sim the games for June 5-6, and then the draft.

[Mike Lowe]

Mike Lowe Journal Entry - Wednesday, June 5, 2013
The hitters

The lineup has been consistent since opening day minus a revolving door at CF due to Aaron Hicks being hurt for 4 months, and signing free agents Dallas McPherson and Bill Hall for some depth at 3B/IF, also due to injuries.

Hicks was off to a great start, and really set the table nicely for the power down in the order. Before Hicks went down with a torn back muscle, his line was .275/.363/.388 in 80 ABs, with 8 steals. To replace Hicks in CF, we got a nice spark from AAA call-up Antoan Richardson who has since cooled and is now back in AAA (Gardenhire wasn't playing him with his recent lack of production). Darin Mastroianni has been spending most of the time in CF, and has been hitting just over .200.

CF is definitely a weak point in the lineup, and I've done some shopping around. Trading is tough with my settings though, and I don't want to give up much for a 3 month filler (especially with the CF prospects in the organization). Currently, I have our #4 prospect, Oswaldo Arcia, learning to play CF in AAA (both strategy locked). Arcia has destroyed AA pitching through 200 ABs, and I'm very close to giving him a chance with the Twins. Once he shows he can handle CF (he's a corner guy currently, with good range/arm), he'll be up.

Aside from Mauer having the MVP year I mentioned in a previous post, Ryan Doumit has been outstanding. His line of .308/.357/.500 has given us one hell of a #2 hitter. He's been the biggest piece I've tried to dangle out for a trade as well, as I'm not really sold on Doumit, I do feel he's replaceable, and in the coming seasons, his contract gets nasty:

$6.5M in 2013 (age 32)
$10M in 2014 (age 33)
$13M in 2015 (age 34)
$17M in 2016 (age 35)

Other notables in the lineup:

Morneau is having a good year again, and with his contract up (and wanting $21M/year in an extension), he'll likely be traded by Aug 1.

While not providing much with the bat, Eduardo Escobar has been a defensive stud. Gardenhire likes to use Dozier at SS, who's hitting .256/.326/.423 and is average defensively. Strangely, when both of these guys play the IF on the same day, Gardenhire always has Dozier at SS and Escobar at 2B, even though Dozier is the better 2B statistically too!

Oddly enough, both Bill Hall and Dallas McPherson are on the DL currently.

I'll post some screens of the lineup and hitting stats later today.

[Mike Lowe]

-

[Mike Lowe]

Mike Lowe Journal Entry - Thursday, June 6, 2013
Team Batting Stats (and Gardenhire's lineups/depth)

I'm now 13 rounds into the draft and as promised, here are some more screens, starting first with team batting:





Team Batting Stats Cont.




Team Overview





Team Stats





Next, up the top 5 picks in the draft, followed by Minnesota's top 5 picks.

[Mike Lowe]

Mike Lowe Journal Entry - Thursday, June 6, 2013
2013 MLB Draft (top 5 selections)

1st Pick Overall - Houston Astros




2nd Pick Overall - Chicago Cubs





3rd Pick Overall - Colorado Rockies





4th Pick Overall - Minnesota Twins





5th Pick Overall - Cleveland Indians





I really feel like OOTP has finally captured the makings of a competitive draft as all of these guys were on my board. Dalton and, Nelson, and Blyer were all guys I liked a lot. Morales I like, but his attitude seemed problematic. Other than that, I'm happy with the pick.

The one challenge is that Minnesota has $7.5M to sign their draft picks

[Mike Lowe]

Mike Lowe Journal Entry - Thursday, June 6, 2013
Minnesota Twins' top 5 picks of 2013 MLB Draft

Here are Minnesota's top 5 picks for the 2013 draft. Not sure we're signing them all, but I stuck with taking the BPA even tough most were on the younger side.


2nd round pick (he should be with the team some time in 2014)





3rd round pick





4th round pick





5th round pick

[Mike Lowe]

Mike Lowe Journal Entry - Thursday, June 6, 2013
The draft has come and gone...

The draft is over, and I'm about to resume simming. We've extended offers to the 5 or 6 guys who are demanding a signing bonus and we'll need some of these guys to take lower offers as I don't have the cash to sign all of them.

If I were to make a trade to free up $$$, could I apply that to signing these guys? I seem to think that's possible...

Anyway, we now have 4 top hitting prospects in the top 25:
4) 3B Miguel Sano
6) CF Felipe Roman (just drafted 11th round)
19) LF Oswaldo Arcia

And 5 pitchers breaking the top 100:
37) SP Kyle Gibson
39) SP Alex Meyer
69) SP Hudson Boyd
81) Alex Wimmers
86) Trevor May
Minnesota has the #1 system in MLB (thanks to Terry Ryan, not me!).

Back to baseball!

[Mike Lowe]

Game 60: Thursday, June 6, 2013
Boxscore
Twins Record: 27-33

Twins blow 4 run lead, swept out of KC

Twins blow a 4-0 lead that they built in the first inning to lose 7-4 to the Royals, being swept out of KC.

Gardenhire likes using Duensing as our setup guy, and he got rocked. I wish he'd use Burton, but I'm trying to let him manage.

[yougo1000]

I will be following. Nice job on the 11th round steal.

[Mike Lowe]

Game 61: Friday, June 7, 2013
Boxscore
Twins Record: 27-34

Twins can't overcome two terrible innings, fall to Nats 9-3

Another tough loss, this time with 2 really bad innings that cost us. I'm sort of numb to watching this team as we're just not good. We have a good heart of the order with Mauer/Morneau/Willingham, and then Doumit having a career year even though Gardenhire can't settle him into a consistent spot in the lineup, but the Luke-warm pitching and the rest of the hitters are pretty abysmal.

I'll try and sim another game tonight since I missed a game yesterday. Eventually, I'd like to get on a schedule that matches up the days of the week to the actual calendar. Maybe I'll get caught up to that point this week.

[Mike Lowe]

Please delete post

[Mike Lowe]

Game 62: Saturday, June 8, 2013
Boxscore
Twins Record: 28-34

Doumit clutch again, Twins beat Nats 6-2

Twins improve to 28-34 with a 5-2 win behind the remarkable continuation of Ryan Doumit's season. Doumit had a 2-run double with 2 outs in the 2nd inning, and followed that up by a run scoring single in the 4th to give the Twins 2-0 and 3-1 leads, respectively.





Ubaldo Jimenez continued to pitch well since joining the Twins, as although Jimenez's ERA since joining the Twins is on the higher side (4.89), his FIP is very respectable since joining the Twins (2.84), and he pitched well enough to get the win over a very strong Nationals team, allowing the Twins to head into Sunday's game tied with the team from the nation's capital.





After Sunday's rubber match, the Twins have an off-day before heading back to Minneapolis for a 9 game homestand, starting with the Philadelphia Phillies (32-31, 3rd in NL East).

[Mike Lowe]

Game 63: Sunday, June 9, 2013
Boxscore
Twins Record: 28-35

Diamond in the rough: Twins shelled 13-1 by Nats in series finale

Twins get shelled 13-1 to close out the series in DC. Scott Diamond got hit early, including 2 wild pitches in the first inning; he didn't make it out of the second. The bullpen didn't fare much better, and the Nationals hit the ball all over the park.

Also simmed through the off-day, and it looks like we have some decisions to make on which rookies to sign to a bonus.

Morales (1st round) or our 4th round pick Justin William...I can't afford both. So far I know we're not signing our 28th round pick who wants $2M plus. Morales seems the obvious choice to sign, but we'd get compensation for him not signing while we wouldn't with Williams. Our 2nd round pick has signed, and I'm confident I can get the rest signed. Like I said, it looks like we won't be signing two guys for sure...28th rounder is gone, and either Morales or Williams won't be signed.

[Mike Lowe]

Game 63: Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Boxscore
Twins Record: 28-36

Twins claw back, but fall to Phillies 5-4

Twins get down 3-0 after Oswalt gets hit around a bit early, but battle back to tie it. We try and battle back from a 2-run deficit, but eventually fall 5-4 to the Phillies. Doumit has another 2 hit game.

Around MLB:
Aroldis Chapman out for 3 months...

[Mike Lowe]

Game 64: Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Boxscore
Twins Record: 29-36

Worley, Twins strong in all facets, beat Phillies

This was a really solid game by the Twins, all around. It was a game in which the team you envision actually plays out like you had...envisioned!

Mastroianni is starting to hit a bit at the top of the order, something we've been severely lacking since Aaron Hicks went down. Worley pitched what was likely his best game of the year too, something I was really hoping to see as he's been spotty. Bullpen pitched well too, with Perkins closing things out with the save.

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Around MLB:

Cleveland fires Terry Francona after team drops to 20 games below .500

Jose Bautista goes 5-5 with a BB, including 2 3-run HRs (8 RBI) in a 15-1 win over the White Sox

[Mike Lowe]

Game 65: Thursday, June 13, 2013
Boxscore
Twins Record: 29-37

Ubaldo Jimenez strong, one rough inning has Twins fall to Phillies, 5-2

Ubaldo Jimenez pitched 7 innings giving up 4 ERs while striking out 5, and threw 65 of 101 pitches for strikes.

All told, he pitched well. The 4 runs all came in the 5th inning when Jimenez found himself in a bases load jam with nobody out. That inning cost the Twins the game as they couldn't get much going with the bats.

The Twins' 2 runs came in the 4th on back-to-back HRs by Josh Willingham (9) and Trevor Plouffe (4).

The Twins host the Detroit Tigers in a weekend series, starting Friday.

The Twins also agreed to terms with 2nd round draft pick MR Jeremy Gemmell ($250k) and 5th round selection, MR C.K. Irby ($220k).

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Around MLB:
Cubs fire Dave Sveum after team drops to 20 games below .500

[Mike Lowe]

An update on the project I'm keeping my eye closest on (aside from signing Morales and Williams), Oswaldo Arcia working in CF in AAA.

He's been hitting the ball well all year, but is still struggling to learn the CF position. We could really use his bat at MLB, but with us about 10 games out of the division and wildcard, I don't see the rush. He wants to be here, but I'd rather he gets time in CF before coming up so that he can contribute on both sides. He's just 22, so hopefully he can improve those defensive numbers and get a call up.

Arcia is ranked the #23 prospect in baseball.

[Mike Lowe]

Breaking News: Twins 4th round pick, OF Justin Williams, has broken off negotiations with the team and will re-enter the draft after turning down a signing bonus of more than $2M. Williams' camp was reportedly seeking a signing bonus of $5M.

[Mike Lowe]

Game 66: Friday, June 14, 2013
Boxscore
Twins Record: 29-38

Twins drop game one of weekend series to Porcello's Tigers

There's really not much to report on about this game, aside from the fact that it's really made me question how much Scott Diamond belongs on a MLB roster. He pitched well his first few starts, but this game was very tough and showed what might just be his true colors. I'm going to take a close look at him before his next scheduled start.






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Around MLB:
A's sign Crisp to 4 year $52M extension