Trading speculation

D-Ray Billy · 08-09-2013, 10:27 PM

I'd love to see dynamic trade speculation in this game. I feel like there's no sense of who is actually available and who is not.

I suggest a daily top 10 likely to get traded list (I.E.: No 1: Cliff Lee. Reason: Contract too expensive and team is in rebuilding mode)

After years of losing with a Royals franchise, I'm finally starting to turn the corner. I'm three games out of first about a week before the deadline and I think this is the year I'd like to go all in (mostly because I have to - I'm not going to be able to afford Butler, Hosmer and Moustakas next season).

The problem is that I have no sense of which starting pitchers might be available. In real life, we heard about Bud Norris, Ricky Nolasco, Cliff Lee, etc.. for weeks and weeks before the deadline. In OOTP, there's no rumor central.

So instead, I get stuck searching through each of the "rebuilding" teams' starting pitching staffs and having their GMs act incredulous at my offers. It's not a fun experience.

Approaching 10 years with OOTP - Love the game!

nyy26wc · 08-12-2013, 10:37 AM

I love this idea.

There's nothing more frustrating than seeing someone who could help you get traded elsewhere and you thinking, hey if I only known he could be available, I would have offered more than that for him.

Sometimes, it feels like a fan in the OOTP world, watching the OOTP version of MLB Network has a better idea of who could be traded by listening to the OOTP version of Peter Gammons and Jon Heyman than we have as GMs.

MrSmooth · 08-12-2013, 10:29 PM

Great idea!

RchW · 08-12-2013, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nyy26wc

I love this idea.

There's nothing more frustrating than seeing someone who could help you get traded elsewhere and you thinking, hey if I only known he could be available, I would have offered more than that for him.

That can only work properly if there is a module in the trading AI that makes certain teams not trade with each other. Most of this would be intra division but it might also be rivalries from past divisional set ups. AFAIK this does not yet exist in the game.

It would be completely unrealistic to allow a human player to acquire any player just by making a better offer, especially within your division. It doesn't work that simplistically IRL. There should also be an AI tendency to trade good players out of their league to prevent them haunting you later. I don't think that exists either.

nyy26wc · 08-12-2013, 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

It would be completely unrealistic to allow a human player to acquire any player just by making a better offer, especially within your division. It doesn't work that simplistically IRL.

I think the fear that humans can acquire anyone they want is overblown. The human player still has to make a good enough offer. And, there's only so many times that any of us can do that before we run out of trade chips.

Also, the human wouldn't know what everyone else is offering. So, the trade list shouldn't say what the other bids are for the player. It would simply say who is being shopped around.

For example, let's say that Matt Garza was available, just like he was IRL. Maybe, if I had known that Garza was available, I would have made a better bid than what the Rangers had made. If I didn't know that Garza was available until I got the email message saying that he had been traded, that means I was a pretty bad GM by not working the phones and finding out who was available. OOTP makes us end up being a pretty bad GM in that regard.

RchW · 08-13-2013, 12:01 AM

I think you missed my point. The real life Garza trade is not an example of a trade that would concern me unless you were St. Louis or Pittsburgh. Also you assume that everyone does know who is being shopped. Reading stories about RL trades suggest that GM's go to great lengths sometimes even upping offers to ensure that another GM does not find out. Trades have fallen through on such revelations.

The trade AI needs further refinement. We can agree on that.

nyy26wc · 08-13-2013, 12:10 AM

I'm not saying that every single player who gets traded is someone we should know is available. But, OOTP needs to do a better job of letting us know what teams are shopping around.

And, I disagree that the real world Garza example isn't something that would concern me. Garza was the top pitcher traded this year. Anyone who read ESPN.com or watched MLB Network knew he was available. If I was the owner of a team and my GM's excuse for not even making a bid for such a player was he didn't know he was available, I'd want to know why I shouldn't fire him for being less informed than fans are.

RchW · 08-13-2013, 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nyy26wc

I'm not saying that every single player who gets traded is someone we should know is available. But, OOTP needs to do a better job of letting us know what teams are shopping around.

And, I disagree that the real world Garza example isn't something that would concern me. Garza was the top pitcher traded this year. Anyone who read ESPN.com or watched MLB Network knew he was available. If I was the owner of a team and my GM's excuse for not even making a bid for such a player was he didn't know he was available, I'd want to know why I shouldn't fire him for being less informed than fans are.

I was referring to him being traded out of the National League. Nothing to do with not knowing.

Edit

My point is that if a human player in OOTP acquires an impact player from an AI divisional rival it is a big exploit. Hence my suggestion that the trade AI conform to the reality of real life inhibitions on trading. We have to walk before running.

Honorable_Pawn · 08-13-2013, 05:34 PM

Love this idea.

nyy26wc · 08-13-2013, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

My point is that if a human player in OOTP acquires an impact player from an AI divisional rival it is a big exploit. Hence my suggestion that the trade AI conform to the reality of real life inhibitions on trading. We have to walk before running.

I will agree with you on that point. I've even refused to consider making some trades with the Red Sox on the grounds that it would too unrealitic for them to consider helping me out.

But, I'm still not convinced that that particular weakness in the AI trade logic is relevant to the issue of us better knowing who's available.

suzerain · 09-01-2013, 03:09 PM

Yeah, I see those two items as separate issues. They're both important.

This is a good idea.

It would be good to have an idea of who's available.

The other thing I'd add to the original suggestion is that I guess that some percentage of what we read in the rumor mills is BS, so if there were occasional reports of "The Giants are rumored to be listening to offers for their closer so-and-so." sometimes those reports should be wrong, as well.

One related idea: it'd be great if the AI was nuanced enough to have a very few (perhaps only one or two per team, or depending on some "loyalty" rating of the current GM) "untouchable" players (maybe through some combination of local popularity and talent), and have them tell you that. "Sorry, we're not trading Joe Blow, no matter what you offer."

Scottiedog · 09-01-2013, 07:03 PM

I'd like to see trade speculation myself. Good idea.

Honorable_Pawn · 09-02-2013, 09:25 AM

Wait a minute....

Do we have real world data to support how much trade speculation there is? Do we have precise measurements of the difference in the amount of trade talks pre-1900 vs modern times?

Until a full detailed analysis is conducted which I'm working on I don't think it should be added. I'm not at my home computer right now but if I remember I will enlighten you all on the actual numbers that I have so painstakenly gathered over the past 122 decades--Wow I have a lot of data.

Anyway, this should not be added until I submit my proposal to Marcus.

...

...

08-09-2013, 10:27 PM	#1
D-Ray Billy Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Machesney Park, Illinois Posts: 22	Trading speculation I'd love to see dynamic trade speculation in this game. I feel like there's no sense of who is actually available and who is not. I suggest a daily top 10 likely to get traded list (I.E.: No 1: Cliff Lee. Reason: Contract too expensive and team is in rebuilding mode) After years of losing with a Royals franchise, I'm finally starting to turn the corner. I'm three games out of first about a week before the deadline and I think this is the year I'd like to go all in (mostly because I have to - I'm not going to be able to afford Butler, Hosmer and Moustakas next season). The problem is that I have no sense of which starting pitchers might be available. In real life, we heard about Bud Norris, Ricky Nolasco, Cliff Lee, etc.. for weeks and weeks before the deadline. In OOTP, there's no rumor central. So instead, I get stuck searching through each of the "rebuilding" teams' starting pitching staffs and having their GMs act incredulous at my offers. It's not a fun experience. Approaching 10 years with OOTP - Love the game!

08-12-2013, 10:29 PM	#3
MrSmooth Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 44	Great idea! __________________ Remember Coaching Does Matter

08-13-2013, 12:01 AM	#6
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	I think you missed my point. The real life Garza trade is not an example of a trade that would concern me unless you were St. Louis or Pittsburgh. Also you assume that everyone does know who is being shopped. Reading stories about RL trades suggest that GM's go to great lengths sometimes even upping offers to ensure that another GM does not find out. Trades have fallen through on such revelations. The trade AI needs further refinement. We can agree on that. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

08-13-2013, 05:34 PM	#9
Honorable_Pawn Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Tampa Bay Posts: 6,407	Love this idea. __________________ PBA Quickstart for OOTP Background Images Collection All PBA games broadcast live on Steam.

09-01-2013, 07:03 PM	#12
Scottiedog All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: In a van...down by the river! Posts: 745	I'd like to see trade speculation myself. Good idea. __________________ President Ronald Wilson Reagan "Some people live an entire lifetime and wonder if they have ever made a difference in the world, but the Marines don't have that problem. " ******** Giovani della Casa "I cannot divine how it happens that the man who knows the least is the most argumentative”**

08-12-2013, 10:37 AM	#2
nyy26wc All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 679	I love this idea. There's nothing more frustrating than seeing someone who could help you get traded elsewhere and you thinking, hey if I only known he could be available, I would have offered more than that for him. Sometimes, it feels like a fan in the OOTP world, watching the OOTP version of MLB Network has a better idea of who could be traded by listening to the OOTP version of Peter Gammons and Jon Heyman than we have as GMs.

08-13-2013, 12:10 AM	#7
nyy26wc All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 679	I'm not saying that every single player who gets traded is someone we should know is available. But, OOTP needs to do a better job of letting us know what teams are shopping around. And, I disagree that the real world Garza example isn't something that would concern me. Garza was the top pitcher traded this year. Anyone who read ESPN.com or watched MLB Network knew he was available. If I was the owner of a team and my GM's excuse for not even making a bid for such a player was he didn't know he was available, I'd want to know why I shouldn't fire him for being less informed than fans are.

09-01-2013, 03:09 PM	#11
suzerain Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Posts: 94	Yeah, I see those two items as separate issues. They're both important. This is a good idea. It would be good to have an idea of who's available. The other thing I'd add to the original suggestion is that I guess that some percentage of what we read in the rumor mills is BS, so if there were occasional reports of "The Giants are rumored to be listening to offers for their closer so-and-so." sometimes those reports should be wrong, as well. One related idea: it'd be great if the AI was nuanced enough to have a very few (perhaps only one or two per team, or depending on some "loyalty" rating of the current GM) "untouchable" players (maybe through some combination of local popularity and talent), and have them tell you that. "Sorry, we're not trading Joe Blow, no matter what you offer."

09-02-2013, 09:25 AM	#13
Honorable_Pawn Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Tampa Bay Posts: 6,407	Wait a minute.... Do we have real world data to support how much trade speculation there is? Do we have precise measurements of the difference in the amount of trade talks pre-1900 vs modern times? Until a full detailed analysis is conducted which I'm working on I don't think it should be added. I'm not at my home computer right now but if I remember I will enlighten you all on the actual numbers that I have so painstakenly gathered over the past 122 decades--Wow I have a lot of data. Anyway, this should not be added until I submit my proposal to Marcus. ... ... __________________ PBA Quickstart for OOTP Background Images Collection All PBA games broadcast live on Steam.