Fight Predictions

[bob_bask]

On the same night Kubrat Pulev meets Tony Thompson, there are numerous other fight cards.

I have simulated two contests from one of those other cards.

All run with official database boxers.

StubHub Center, Carson, California, USA

Victor Terrazas vs. Leo Santa Cruz



Over a hundred, Terrazas 66-26-8.

Terrazas 50 decisions and 16 stoppage victories.

Santa Cruz 14 decision and 12 stoppage victories.

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* Santa Cruz only rating was at Super Flyweight, so I just transferred his rating to the Super Bantamweight division.


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Abner Mares vs. Jhonny Gonzalez



Over a hundred, Gonzalez 53-42-5.

Gonzalez 27 decisions and 26 stoppage victories.

Mares 19 decision and 23 stoppage victories.

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* Mares only rating was at Bantamweight, so I just transferred his rating to the Super Bantamweight division.

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The underdogs got the nod over the distance in both hundreds...

[PWillisTheMan]

Santa Cruz & mares both need upgrades. I'd put those at

80/20 Santa Cruz & 95/5 Mares.

[PWillisTheMan]

Mares_Abner.tbdx3

SantaCruz_Leo.tbdx3

Here are mine in the divisions they're fighting in. I'm comfortable with Mares, he's top 5 p4p imo. LASC still hasn't faced the best comp, so Victor will tell a lot about him.

I have pretty much every fighter rated in any division you'd want them if it comes up that you don't have them in the future.

[javier_83]

Thanks for Mares file!!

[bob_bask]

Using PWillisTheMan's ratings.

Victor Terrazas vs. Leo Santa Cruz



Over a hundred, Santa Cruz 72-24-4.

Santa Cruz 47 decisions and 25 stoppage victories.

Terrazas 22 decisions and 2 stoppage victories.

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Abner Mares vs. Jhonny Gonzalez



Over a hundred, Mares 63-30-7.

Mares 23 decisions and 40 stoppage victories.

Gonzalez 11 decision and 19 stoppage victories.

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Gonzalez was up on all three cards at the time of stoppage, 87-83, 87-83 & 86-84. He was really putting the hurt on Mares throughout.

[PWillisTheMan]

Wow, that's surprising. I think Abner is going to batter him. Though I'd also consider Jhonny post prime.

[bob_bask]

Originally Posted by PWillisTheMan

Wow, that's surprising. I think Abner is going to batter him. Though I'd also consider Jhonny post prime.

I don't usually alter the career stage setting when creating a fight as unsure on exact effects on ratings* however adjusted Gonzalez to Post-Prime.

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Abner Mares vs. Jhonny Gonzalez



Over a hundred, Mares 88-10-2.

Mares 29 decisions and 59 stoppage victories.

Gonzalez 4 decision and 6 stoppage victories.

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Mares got the stoppage after dropping Gonzalez three times in the tenth.

Gonzalez had tasted the canvas earlier in the fifth. It was as competitive as a lopsided contest can get.

I gave Gonzalez rounds eight and nine. The scorecards at the stoppage were 89-81, 88-82 & 87-83.

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That's three different simulations, maybe one will be correct.

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*Purely visual check, haven't worked out numbers to it yet.

[PWillisTheMan]

I wouldn't adjust them either, fighters have a way of proving me wrong on a weekly basis and many would have said Jhonny was post-prime years ago.

[BigFiasco]

agree pwill, i like jhonny alot but i think hes going to take a serious whippin in this one

[hamed2]

Originally Posted by BigFiasco

agree pwill, i like jhonny alot but i think hes going to take a serious whippin in this one

Agreed, Mares will make him look/feel old would be my bet.

[bob_bask]

Saturday 24 August 2013

Gimnasio Municipal N° 1, Trelew, Chubut, Argentina

Omar Andres Narvaez vs. Hiroyuki Hisataka
WBO super flyweight title



This contest had it's moments, but my scorecard, 119-108, reflects the gulf between the two.

Best Moments

Narvaez dropped Hisataka with a left hook at the start of round ten.
Hisataka bloodied Narvaez's nose in round six.

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Bodymaker Colosseum, Osaka, Osaka, Japan

Myung Ho Lee vs. Rey Megrino
flyweight division



A lot of action here, 78-74, the rounds were pick-em's or Ho Lee miraculously surviving to the bell.

Best Moments

Megrino rocking Ho Lee with a sharp combination in round seven.
Ho Lee ability to remain on his feet in rounds two and six.

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All ratings used are either from the official database or available here courtesy of PWillisTheMan.

[bob_bask]

WBC #12 Flyweight Rey Megriño of the Philippines scored a well-deserved hard-fought unanimous decision victory over world-rated Japanese WBC #15 Myung Ho Lee tonight (Aug 24) in Osaka, Japan.

Displaying good moves and hands power, the 27 year-old Megriño (20-20-3, 17 KOs) sent the undaunted Myung Ho Lee (16-4, 5 KOs) to the canvas three times during the action-packed clash, once during the rough first round and again two times in round two.

But the courageous Japanese fought back fearlessly, finishing the rumble on his two feet.

At the end of the fight the two boxers hugged as official scorecards were read.

The all-Japanese panel of judges scored 78 -73, 77-73 and 76-74, all in favor of the Filipino Rey Megrino who undoubtedly improves his rating in the WBC flyweight (112 lbs) world rankings.

That's a good start for TBCB.

* After today's contests I won't simulate any more upcoming contests here - leave that to BradC on "Can your predictions beat TBCB's?"

[PWillisTheMan]

I think you should, no disrespect to Brad but it isn't his show. Jhonny did some more justice tonight!

[bob_bask]

Originally Posted by PWillisTheMan

I think you should, no disrespect to Brad but it isn't his show.

Well I'm certainly enjoying running them.

Originally Posted by PWillisTheMan

Jhonny did some more justice tonight!

Was going to do comparison between the predictions and reality - but will leave it a while to avoid spoiling it for anybody.

[Kobeck]

I would say spoilers should be allowed in this thread

just my opinion

[bob_bask]

Spoiler Alert

Originally Posted by bob_bask

Kubrat Pulev beat Tony Thompson by UD in round 12 of 12.

Judge: 115-114
Judge: 116-113
Judge: 116-113

*Official ratings had Thompson winning by UD.

Kubrat Pulev beat Tony Thompson by UD in round 12 of 12.

Judge: 116-112
Judge: 118-110
Judge: 117-111

Originally Posted by bob_bask

Leo Santa Cruz beat Victor Terrazas by UD in round 12 of 12.

Judge: 116-112
Judge: 116-112
Judge: 115-113

Leo Santa Cruz beat Victor Terrazas by TKO in round 3 of 12.

Originally Posted by bob_bask

Abner Mares vs. Jhonny Gonzalez - two versions

Standard - Jhonny Gonzalez beat Abner Mares by TKO in round 10 of 12.

Post-Prime Adjusted Gonzalez - Abner Mares beat Jhonny Gonzalez by TKO in round 10 of 12.

Jhonny Gonzalez beat Abner Mares by KO in round 1 of 12.

Originally Posted by bob_bask

Omar Andres Narvaez beat Hiroyuki Hisataka by UD in round 12 of 12.

Judge: 116-111
Judge: 116-111
Judge: 118-109

Omar Andres Narvaez beat Hiroyuki Hisataka by TKO in round 10 of 12.

Originally Posted by bob_bask

Rey Megrino beat Myung Ho Lee by UD in round 8 of 8.

Judge: 79-73
Judge: 78-74
Judge: 77-75

Rey Megrino beat Myung Ho Lee by UD in round 8 of 8.

Judge: 78-73
Judge: 77-73
Judge: 76-74

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That's five out of five+

Pulev and Megrino took decisions. Gonzalez's stoppage was earlier then predicted. Whilst Santa Cruz and Narvaez didn't go to decision as predicted.


+I'm gonna give TB credit for the Gonzalez prediction, as I played around with his career stage

[Jackyle]

Bob, really great stuff.