Always finishing below Pythagorean record?

Erithtotl · 08-17-2013, 12:26 PM

I've been playing OOTP for over 10 years.

I've played about 20 seasons in a fictional league.

Nearly every season I finish about 5 games below my Pythagorean record. Most baseball research would show that this is impossible.

I don't play out the games, and I don't use coaches (just scouts).

Anyone else run into this? Is this a quirk of the OOTP engine or just bad luck.

Erithtotl · 08-17-2013, 09:37 PM

I just finished a new season. I finished 88-74. -13 below my pythagorean record (855 for / 652 against) I finished 2nd in runs (3rd avg, 2nd OBP, 1st HR) and 4th in runs against (starters 2nd ERA, bullpen 4th, defense 6th)

Left-handed Badger · 08-17-2013, 09:42 PM

You might want to talk to Jimy Williams-I think all but one or 2 of his teams finished below the pythag.

You dont refuse to PH for the good-field no-hit guy, with a superior hitter yet put in a defensive replacement for that same guy next half inning anyway do you? (I think Jimy did that a couple times)

Questdog · 08-17-2013, 10:11 PM

Finishing below Pyth., usually means you are losing the close games, which in turn usually means your bullpen is suspect.....it could also mean that your tactics are suspect....

Nunyer · 08-17-2013, 10:30 PM

In my longest running fictional league, 22 seasons spread over three versions of OOTP, my team is a -1 overall against the Pythagorean... so pretty spot on considering about 4000 games. Worst season was a -7 and best season was a +7... and both of those were years where I managed pretty much every game... although there doesn't seem to be any large variance for seasons that I mostly managed versus those mostly simmed.

jar2574 · 08-18-2013, 01:40 AM

Over 25 years, my team is 2472-1378 with a .642 winning pct. But their expected record is 2519-1331, 47 games better than their actual record.

So they are averaging almost 2 games below expectation per year.

The worst years were -12, -12, -11, -11, -10, -5, -3, -3, and the best were +5, +5, +4, +4, +3, +3, +2, with the rest in the middle.

tcblcommish · 08-18-2013, 03:23 PM

Can you actually see the career Pyth record?

injury log · 08-18-2013, 09:40 PM

If you win one game 20-1 and lose one game 9-8, the standings think you won one game, but Pythagoras thinks you won more. So if you underperform your Pythag record consistently, it can have something to do with talent distribution. If you have a monster offense, and, say, three superlative SPs and two rubbish ones, I think you'll normally win a ton of 10-0 games and lose a few close ones. So you'd likely underperform your Pythag record. Or if opposing teams each have one or two disastrously bad SPs, you might rack up a ton of runs in many games, and those runs help your Pythag record more than your real one.

There are other possibly relevant factors, like your performance in close games (which may have to do with your bullpen), or your in-game management.

Mr. Baseball · 08-19-2013, 09:47 AM

What exactly is the Pythagorean Record? I've always assumed it to be a projection of some sort, but never knew exactly what it meant.

kuma78 · 08-19-2013, 10:13 AM

It's an expected record based on runs scored vs runs allowed, designed to estimate what a team's record should be.

Here is more detail:

Pythagorean expectation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Mr. Baseball · 08-19-2013, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kuma78

It's an expected record based on runs scored vs runs allowed, designed to estimate what a team's record should be.

Here is more detail:

Pythagorean expectation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Doesn't seem very accurate at first glance. My online league team is +9 over my Pythagorean expectation. Slumps happen. Trades happen. Does it factor that in?

kuma78 · 08-19-2013, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Baseball

Doesn't seem very accurate at first glance. My online league team is +9 over my Pythagorean expectation. Slumps happen. Trades happen. Does it factor that in?

It only factors in runs.

When you look back at prior year standings on ESPN.com or MLB.com and look at the run differential vs. position in the standings, it's actually a very good indicator.

Mr. Baseball · 08-19-2013, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kuma78

It only factors in runs.

When you look back at prior year standings on ESPN.com or MLB.com and look at the run differential vs. position in the standings, it's actually a very good indicator.

Thanks. Always wondered what it was all about.

08-17-2013, 12:26 PM	#1
Erithtotl Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 330	Always finishing below Pythagorean record? I've been playing OOTP for over 10 years. I've played about 20 seasons in a fictional league. Nearly every season I finish about 5 games below my Pythagorean record. Most baseball research would show that this is impossible. I don't play out the games, and I don't use coaches (just scouts). Anyone else run into this? Is this a quirk of the OOTP engine or just bad luck.

08-17-2013, 09:42 PM	#3
Left-handed Badger Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: at the altar of the baseball god praying for middle infield that can catch the ball Posts: 2,036	You might want to talk to Jimy Williams-I think all but one or 2 of his teams finished below the pythag. You dont refuse to PH for the good-field no-hit guy, with a superior hitter yet put in a defensive replacement for that same guy next half inning anyway do you? (I think Jimy did that a couple times) __________________ -Left-handed groundball specialist -Strikeouts are for wimps

08-19-2013, 09:47 AM	#9
Mr. Baseball All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Mequon, Wisconsin Posts: 1,020	What exactly is the Pythagorean Record? I've always assumed it to be a projection of some sort, but never knew exactly what it meant. __________________ Duluth Danger (HBL) Dynasty Report -- Online League Franchise Duluth - 1985/1989 North League Champions!

08-19-2013, 10:13 AM	#10
kuma78 Major Leagues Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Wake Forest, NC Posts: 437	It's an expected record based on runs scored vs runs allowed, designed to estimate what a team's record should be. Here is more detail: Pythagorean expectation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia __________________ Looking for informative and entertaining Cubs baseball talk? Check out The View From The Bleachers

08-17-2013, 09:37 PM	#2
Erithtotl Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 330	I just finished a new season. I finished 88-74. -13 below my pythagorean record (855 for / 652 against) I finished 2nd in runs (3rd avg, 2nd OBP, 1st HR) and 4th in runs against (starters 2nd ERA, bullpen 4th, defense 6th)

08-17-2013, 10:11 PM	#4
Questdog Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: In a dark, damp cave where I'm training slugs to run the bases...... Posts: 16,142	Finishing below Pyth., usually means you are losing the close games, which in turn usually means your bullpen is suspect.....it could also mean that your tactics are suspect....

08-17-2013, 10:30 PM	#5
Nunyer All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Baseball Ned Flanders stares into your soul... Posts: 594	In my longest running fictional league, 22 seasons spread over three versions of OOTP, my team is a -1 overall against the Pythagorean... so pretty spot on considering about 4000 games. Worst season was a -7 and best season was a +7... and both of those were years where I managed pretty much every game... although there doesn't seem to be any large variance for seasons that I mostly managed versus those mostly simmed.

08-18-2013, 01:40 AM	#6
jar2574 Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 405	Over 25 years, my team is 2472-1378 with a .642 winning pct. But their expected record is 2519-1331, 47 games better than their actual record. So they are averaging almost 2 games below expectation per year. The worst years were -12, -12, -11, -11, -10, -5, -3, -3, and the best were +5, +5, +4, +4, +3, +3, +2, with the rest in the middle.

08-18-2013, 03:23 PM	#7
tcblcommish Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Canada Posts: 3,440	Can you actually see the career Pyth record?

08-18-2013, 09:40 PM	#8
injury log Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Toronto Posts: 9,162	If you win one game 20-1 and lose one game 9-8, the standings think you won one game, but Pythagoras thinks you won more. So if you underperform your Pythag record consistently, it can have something to do with talent distribution. If you have a monster offense, and, say, three superlative SPs and two rubbish ones, I think you'll normally win a ton of 10-0 games and lose a few close ones. So you'd likely underperform your Pythag record. Or if opposing teams each have one or two disastrously bad SPs, you might rack up a ton of runs in many games, and those runs help your Pythag record more than your real one. There are other possibly relevant factors, like your performance in close games (which may have to do with your bullpen), or your in-game management.