Logjammin' at 1st Base

torpidbeaver · 07-18-2013, 01:12 PM

Playing as the Mariners just 4 games shy of the All-Star Break, 3rd place and 7 games back of the Angels, 1st in Runs Against, Defensive Efficiency, Starter ERA, and Bullpen ERA, but last or almost last in every offensive category.

I've got a bit of a bottleneck at a couple of positions and I'm not sure whether to trade my only source of offense for a prospect or two and send up the white flag, or wait a while and see if Seattle can pitch its way into the playoffs.

C: Mike Zunino/Jesus Montero
1B: Justin Smoak/Kendrys Morales

Kendrys Morales is just mashing, posting a .317/.382/.578 line, 2nd in the league in WAR, and is in the top-10 in nearly every meaningful offensive category.

Smoak is underwhelming at .249/.318/.443 but has hit 12 HRs on a team with no muscle. He also has the added benefit of being a cheap contract and a switch-hitter.

Jesus Montero is, other than an inexplicably hot Franklin Gutierez, providing the only other offense on the team with a yeoman's .278/.305/.485.

Zunino was on a .301/.353/.489 clip in AAA with 11 HRs and 19 doubles when I pulled him up on July 8th.

Long term, Morales is 30, in a contract year, and wants to nearly double his salary in extension talks. Smoak's still in arbitration years. I'm worried that Morales is hitting his peak, and I should trade him while he's at his most valuable, but I also don't want to sit here watching my team lose 2-1 games for the next three months.

I'm not sure what move to make, if any.

mattb_222 · 07-18-2013, 01:43 PM

Definitely an interesting dilemma.

Obviously, you play ootp to win championships and barring a surprising surge you aren't winning this year. I think I'd trade Morales (if you can get a good haul; don't settle as he'll likely be worth a compensation pick if you lose him to free agency). Endure a few months of losing and build up that farm system. Plus with Smoak in the wings, you probably won't lose that much, especially when you factor in a likely Morales regression in the 2nd half.

That's my 2 cents anyway, and good luck whatever you decide

DC4MVP · 07-18-2013, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by torpidbeaver

Playing as the Mariners just 4 games shy of the All-Star Break, 3rd place and 7 games back of the Angels, 1st in Runs Against, Defensive Efficiency, Starter ERA, and Bullpen ERA, but last or almost last in every offensive category.

I've got a bit of a bottleneck at a couple of positions and I'm not sure whether to trade my only source of offense for a prospect or two and send up the white flag, or wait a while and see if Seattle can pitch its way into the playoffs.

C: Mike Zunino/Jesus Montero
1B: Justin Smoak/Kendrys Morales

Kendrys Morales is just mashing, posting a .317/.382/.578 line, 2nd in the league in WAR, and is in the top-10 in nearly every meaningful offensive category.

Smoak is underwhelming at .249/.318/.443 but has hit 12 HRs on a team with no muscle. He also has the added benefit of being a cheap contract and a switch-hitter.

Jesus Montero is, other than an inexplicably hot Franklin Gutierez, providing the only other offense on the team with a yeoman's .278/.305/.485.

Zunino was on a .301/.353/.489 clip in AAA with 11 HRs and 19 doubles when I pulled him up on July 8th.

Long term, Morales is 30, in a contract year, and wants to nearly double his salary in extension talks. Smoak's still in arbitration years. I'm worried that Morales is hitting his peak, and I should trade him while he's at his most valuable, but I also don't want to sit here watching my team lose 2-1 games for the next three months.

I'm not sure what move to make, if any.

That's a tough one. I guess it'd depend on the overall age of your team and what you have coming up in the minors.

If your pitching is this stellar, it probably won't make it through a rebuilding period (2-3 years) and remain extremely solid like it is now.

I'd do a half rebuild and keep the pitching intact and trade the veteran bats for prospects that are close to ML ready. Morales and Smoak would be gone and could yield a nice prospect in his lower-20's.

But obviously, don't trade him just to trade him. If you can't get anything good in return. Might as well stay the course and hope the beats heat up.

torpidbeaver · 07-18-2013, 02:53 PM

Thanks for the thoughts.

If I decide to trade Morales, what's the best way to go about that? I know if I Shop him, his morale will suffer. But is shopping a player a good way to get offers? Should I put him on the trade block instead?

I made a couple of lateral moves before the break to lower salary and make room.

Traded C Kelly Shoppach (.216, 3 HR, 10 RBI -- $1.5M backup catcher) to LAA for 3B Scott Rolen (.279, 5 HR, 26 RBI -- $910K)

My original plan was to look for a weak prospect, but I couldn't hardly get anyone to bite unless I paid them for the trade or threw in another piece, so I shopped him around and was offered Rolen. My presumptive everyday 3B, Kyle Seger, has been struggling with a .249/.296/.359 line, so I figured I'd try to kill two birds with one stone by platooning them at third and opening up the spot for Zunino. But now I've got three third basemen, so...

Traded 3B Robert Andino (.190/.240/.270 -- $1.3M infielder & backup 3B) & $580k Cash to Boston for 19-year old 2B low-A prospect

My scout had him rated at 4-stars, OSA had him at 1. He had an... okay line. After I pulled the trigger, I realized I had no one on the bench who could back up SS, so I demoted a backup outfielder and promoted a craptastic AAA player who'd started the year on the 40-man who could play 5 positions.

So, in all, I feel like I strengthened the offense (even if I hurt my bench), while dumping a little salary and avoiding an all-in push toward winning or capitulating.

mattb_222 · 07-18-2013, 03:05 PM

I don't think shopping a player affects his morale; I think putting him on the trading block affects his morale. I shop just about everyone of my players pretty frequently (most of the time out of curiosity) throughout the year.

All of that said, I would go to the trade screen, see who's in "win now!" mode and see if any of those teams need a 1st baseman or a DH.

Shopping a player is good too just to get an idea of which teams are most likely interested.

goalieump413 · 07-18-2013, 03:35 PM

Shop Smoak, since he still has some upside (presumably). But it more depends on if you think you'll get enough in return. Sometimes the best trade strategy is not to trade at all. Hold on to guys if you believe what you'll get in return won't amount to much WAR if you're in a playoff chase. You will have to do a lot of trade work to get a minor league contract prospect for Smoak, but you could bundle one with a middling ML contract player if you find the right trade partner.

Other than that, just remember not to trade away a veteran with good leadership traits for someone who isn't a leader. Also, if a player has high intelligence, work ethic, and leadership, keep him on the roster even if he's not currently producing.

Finally, you might have to over-pay Kendrys to stay on the roster beyond this year, which sucks, so just take a close look at your team's finances for the next couple of seasons to see if any other players are must-sign guys (like Nick Franklin). Also, remember that the M's owner, Yamauchi, is "generous", so as long as you meet your season goal, you'll get a budgetary increase for next season, so you have some wiggle room.

torpidbeaver · 07-18-2013, 03:55 PM

Thanks, I had no idea that the owners increase their budgets based on performance, maybe because I've never finished a season.

So Morse is looking for a huge payday as well, even though he's a sub-replacement level player so far and a big minus on defense. I can't get much for him in a trade, but I don't want to let him just walk at the end of the year.

Does player performance have much of an effect on salary expectations? Like, if Morse were having as great a year as Morales is, would he want even more ridiculous sums of money right now? I'm sort of dumbfounded that we're so far apart on contract expectations right now. I mean, ****, he's listed as having "Low" greed. Am I just way out of touch with what a player like Morse is or should be worth?

Cinnamon J. Scudworth · 07-18-2013, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattb_222

I don't think shopping a player affects his morale

It does. Depending on the player, it may not be enough to affect his overall morale, but if you view the expanded morale, you'll usually see a negative change next to "transactions."

That said, I don't think the morale hit is a big enough deal to worry about.

mattb_222 · 07-18-2013, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cinnamon J. Scudworth

It does. Depending on the player, it may not be enough to affect his overall morale, but if you view the expanded morale, you'll usually see a negative change next to "transactions."

That said, I don't think the morale hit is a big enough deal to worry about.

Thanks. I didn't know that, obviously.

goalieump413 · 07-19-2013, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by torpidbeaver

Thanks, I had no idea that the owners increase their budgets based on performance, maybe because I've never finished a season.

So Morse is looking for a huge payday as well, even though he's a sub-replacement level player so far and a big minus on defense. I can't get much for him in a trade, but I don't want to let him just walk at the end of the year.

Does player performance have much of an effect on salary expectations? Like, if Morse were having as great a year as Morales is, would he want even more ridiculous sums of money right now? I'm sort of dumbfounded that we're so far apart on contract expectations right now. I mean, ****, he's listed as having "Low" greed. Am I just way out of touch with what a player like Morse is or should be worth?

Yeah, Morse did for me too. I asked this is a previous thread myself, and got the response that he's seeing his value to your organization based on team and/or league finances, and assuming he should be paid a ton of dough. It may also be due to his scarcity at his position, but I'm not sure on that.

Player performance can affect negotiations, but in your case, he's asking way too much and if you let him walk, he'll sign with someone else for a lot less that he's asking you to pay. Try this: Wait until the last 1-2 weeks of the season and see what happens. Just remember to keep checking in before players file for free agency.

In my Mariner's career, I let Morse walk, extended Morales, and eventually extended Smoak. I'm in my 2017 season now, and both Morales and Smoak have been worth keeping. I actually traded back FOR Morse once again in the 2014 season since his team wanted to dump his contract and he played for a while until I traded him away again. Kinda fun, actually.

But again, since Yamauchi is old and lenient, he'll give you more money to work with, as long as your club turns a profit and you meet his season expectation. I have done both for all 4+ years I've been the GM in Seattle, and my operating budget has risen every year. Oh, and it helps when you win back-to-back World Series.

Charlie Hough · 07-19-2013, 06:03 PM

So is the thread title a reference to The Big Lebowski? If so, then

torpidbeaver · 07-19-2013, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goalieump413

Yeah, Morse did for me too. I asked this is a previous thread myself, and got the response that he's seeing his value to your organization based on team and/or league finances, and assuming he should be paid a ton of dough. It may also be due to his scarcity at his position, but I'm not sure on that.

Player performance can affect negotiations, but in your case, he's asking way too much and if you let him walk, he'll sign with someone else for a lot less that he's asking you to pay. Try this: Wait until the last 1-2 weeks of the season and see what happens. Just remember to keep checking in before players file for free agency.

In my Mariner's career, I let Morse walk, extended Morales, and eventually extended Smoak. I'm in my 2017 season now, and both Morales and Smoak have been worth keeping. I actually traded back FOR Morse once again in the 2014 season since his team wanted to dump his contract and he played for a while until I traded him away again. Kinda fun, actually.

But again, since Yamauchi is old and lenient, he'll give you more money to work with, as long as your club turns a profit and you meet his season expectation. I have done both for all 4+ years I've been the GM in Seattle, and my operating budget has risen every year. Oh, and it helps when you win back-to-back World Series.

Brilliant! Thanks, I'll give waiting a shot. I feel like Morse is going to bounce back eventually, but I thought I'd be getting him at a discount right now since he's basically putting on some sort of awful performance art show at the dish.

Did Iwakuma **** the bed in your career, too? I've got unbelievable, sub- or near-sub-3.00 ERA performances from Maurer, Beavan, and Saunders, and even Bonderman's done well enough in spot starts and long relief, but Iwakuma is consistently awful. Vagaries of OOTP and baseball, I'm guessing, but oof.

Quote:

So is the thread title a reference to The Big Lebowski? If so, then

You're out of your element.

goalieump413 · 07-19-2013, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by torpidbeaver

Brilliant! Thanks, I'll give waiting a shot. I feel like Morse is going to bounce back eventually, but I thought I'd be getting him at a discount right now since he's basically putting on some sort of awful performance art show at the dish.

Did Iwakuma **** the bed in your career, too? I've got unbelievable, sub- or near-sub-3.00 ERA performances from Maurer, Beavan, and Saunders, and even Bonderman's done well enough in spot starts and long relief, but Iwakuma is consistently awful. Vagaries of OOTP and baseball, I'm guessing, but oof.

Yeah, Morse is a "tweener" in that he can hit, but he tapers off too easily. If you wait, just remember not to do too much negotiating until then, so his mood remains high.

And yes, Iwakuma was rolling until he hit a wall in my 2014 season. He hit said wall right as we were pushing for 2nd place and he just couldn't pitch himself out of trouble. I eventually sent him to Tacoma, fuming at my move. He continued to pitch there for the bulk of 2 seasons, calling him up only when one of my rotation guys got hurt.

Not to derail the thread, but do yourself a favor and look up Rubby De La Rosa. He's a lot like Michael Pineda. I can't remember who I traded away in the Rubby deal, but I think I got a pretty good guy. Still with the M's in 2017, solid pitcher.

Left-handed Badger · 07-20-2013, 02:32 AM

Move Montero to SS.

(Ok taking a cheap shot at some questionable AI decisions I've seen in past OOTPs.

)

goalieump413 · 07-20-2013, 12:27 PM

I traded Franklin Gutierrez for Rubby De La Rosa in 2014. Pretty good deal.

I eventually traded Justin Smoak in January of 2017 to Philidelphia for a couple of prospects. He did well for me, hitting 137 HRs for me and a career OPS of .748 in 7 seasons. Can't complain, but you might want to watch out in cases like this because he was the every day starter to get these numbers, not platooning more than 15 games/season.

Overall, the amount of talent I had at 1B didn't cost me that much considering the M's won the World Series in 2015 and 2016. Typically, you keep a team together when you're pushing for the crown, and now that we've achieved greatness, it's time to look to the future.

torpidbeaver · 07-21-2013, 12:30 PM

I thought I might trade Iwakuma at the break, see if I could get a decent prospect. I shopped him around, and the only single offer I got was for Adam Dunn, who's signed to the worst contract in the history of anything.

I thought there'd be more (SOME?!?) interest in a 3 1/2 Star, innings-eating, only one year removed from a 3.16 ERA pitcher.

So either he's vastly overrated, his bad year this year is having a perverse effect on his trade value, or the trade AI is a little off. Maybe all three of those things.

Do I need to go into "Rebuilding" mode to get teams to offer me prospects? I've only had one trade offer, and it was a bad one. Never had a team offer prospects, and I've seen a flurry of trades from AI team to AI teams that include prospects. Sigh.

07-18-2013, 01:12 PM	#1
torpidbeaver Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 391	Logjammin' at 1st Base Playing as the Mariners just 4 games shy of the All-Star Break, 3rd place and 7 games back of the Angels, 1st in Runs Against, Defensive Efficiency, Starter ERA, and Bullpen ERA, but last or almost last in every offensive category. I've got a bit of a bottleneck at a couple of positions and I'm not sure whether to trade my only source of offense for a prospect or two and send up the white flag, or wait a while and see if Seattle can pitch its way into the playoffs. C: Mike Zunino/Jesus Montero 1B: Justin Smoak/Kendrys Morales Kendrys Morales is just mashing, posting a .317/.382/.578 line, 2nd in the league in WAR, and is in the top-10 in nearly every meaningful offensive category. Smoak is underwhelming at .249/.318/.443 but has hit 12 HRs on a team with no muscle. He also has the added benefit of being a cheap contract and a switch-hitter. Jesus Montero is, other than an inexplicably hot Franklin Gutierez, providing the only other offense on the team with a yeoman's .278/.305/.485. Zunino was on a .301/.353/.489 clip in AAA with 11 HRs and 19 doubles when I pulled him up on July 8th. Long term, Morales is 30, in a contract year, and wants to nearly double his salary in extension talks. Smoak's still in arbitration years. I'm worried that Morales is hitting his peak, and I should trade him while he's at his most valuable, but I also don't want to sit here watching my team lose 2-1 games for the next three months. I'm not sure what move to make, if any. Last edited by torpidbeaver; 07-18-2013 at 01:14 PM.

07-18-2013, 01:43 PM	#2
mattb_222 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 62	Definitely an interesting dilemma. Obviously, you play ootp to win championships and barring a surprising surge you aren't winning this year. I think I'd trade Morales (if you can get a good haul; don't settle as he'll likely be worth a compensation pick if you lose him to free agency). Endure a few months of losing and build up that farm system. Plus with Smoak in the wings, you probably won't lose that much, especially when you factor in a likely Morales regression in the 2nd half. That's my 2 cents anyway, and good luck whatever you decide __________________ Someday I want to defend a penguin in court, just so I can say, "Your honor, clearly my defendant isn't a flight risk."

07-18-2013, 02:53 PM	#4
torpidbeaver Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 391	Thanks for the thoughts. If I decide to trade Morales, what's the best way to go about that? I know if I Shop him, his morale will suffer. But is shopping a player a good way to get offers? Should I put him on the trade block instead? I made a couple of lateral moves before the break to lower salary and make room. Traded C Kelly Shoppach (.216, 3 HR, 10 RBI -- $1.5M backup catcher) to LAA for 3B Scott Rolen (.279, 5 HR, 26 RBI -- $910K) My original plan was to look for a weak prospect, but I couldn't hardly get anyone to bite unless I paid them for the trade or threw in another piece, so I shopped him around and was offered Rolen. My presumptive everyday 3B, Kyle Seger, has been struggling with a .249/.296/.359 line, so I figured I'd try to kill two birds with one stone by platooning them at third and opening up the spot for Zunino. But now I've got three third basemen, so... Traded 3B Robert Andino (.190/.240/.270 -- $1.3M infielder & backup 3B) & $580k Cash to Boston for 19-year old 2B low-A prospect My scout had him rated at 4-stars, OSA had him at 1. He had an... okay line. After I pulled the trigger, I realized I had no one on the bench who could back up SS, so I demoted a backup outfielder and promoted a craptastic AAA player who'd started the year on the 40-man who could play 5 positions. So, in all, I feel like I strengthened the offense (even if I hurt my bench), while dumping a little salary and avoiding an all-in push toward winning or capitulating. Last edited by torpidbeaver; 07-18-2013 at 02:55 PM.

07-18-2013, 03:05 PM	#5
mattb_222 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 62	I don't think shopping a player affects his morale; I think putting him on the trading block affects his morale. I shop just about everyone of my players pretty frequently (most of the time out of curiosity) throughout the year. All of that said, I would go to the trade screen, see who's in "win now!" mode and see if any of those teams need a 1st baseman or a DH. Shopping a player is good too just to get an idea of which teams are most likely interested. __________________ Someday I want to defend a penguin in court, just so I can say, "Your honor, clearly my defendant isn't a flight risk."

07-18-2013, 03:55 PM	#7
torpidbeaver Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 391	Thanks, I had no idea that the owners increase their budgets based on performance, maybe because I've never finished a season. So Morse is looking for a huge payday as well, even though he's a sub-replacement level player so far and a big minus on defense. I can't get much for him in a trade, but I don't want to let him just walk at the end of the year. Does player performance have much of an effect on salary expectations? Like, if Morse were having as great a year as Morales is, would he want even more ridiculous sums of money right now? I'm sort of dumbfounded that we're so far apart on contract expectations right now. I mean, ***, he's listed as having "Low" greed. Am I just way out of touch with what a player like Morse is or should be worth? Last edited by torpidbeaver; 07-18-2013 at 03:57 PM.*

07-18-2013, 03:35 PM	#6
goalieump413 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 765	Shop Smoak, since he still has some upside (presumably). But it more depends on if you think you'll get enough in return. Sometimes the best trade strategy is not to trade at all. Hold on to guys if you believe what you'll get in return won't amount to much WAR if you're in a playoff chase. You will have to do a lot of trade work to get a minor league contract prospect for Smoak, but you could bundle one with a middling ML contract player if you find the right trade partner. Other than that, just remember not to trade away a veteran with good leadership traits for someone who isn't a leader. Also, if a player has high intelligence, work ethic, and leadership, keep him on the roster even if he's not currently producing. Finally, you might have to over-pay Kendrys to stay on the roster beyond this year, which sucks, so just take a close look at your team's finances for the next couple of seasons to see if any other players are must-sign guys (like Nick Franklin). Also, remember that the M's owner, Yamauchi, is "generous", so as long as you meet your season goal, you'll get a budgetary increase for next season, so you have some wiggle room.

07-19-2013, 06:03 PM	#11
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,644	So is the thread title a reference to The Big Lebowski? If so, then

07-20-2013, 02:32 AM	#14
Left-handed Badger Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: at the altar of the baseball god praying for middle infield that can catch the ball Posts: 2,036	Move Montero to SS. (Ok taking a cheap shot at some questionable AI decisions I've seen in past OOTPs. ) __________________ -Left-handed groundball specialist -Strikeouts are for wimps

07-20-2013, 12:27 PM	#15
goalieump413 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 765	I traded Franklin Gutierrez for Rubby De La Rosa in 2014. Pretty good deal. I eventually traded Justin Smoak in January of 2017 to Philidelphia for a couple of prospects. He did well for me, hitting 137 HRs for me and a career OPS of .748 in 7 seasons. Can't complain, but you might want to watch out in cases like this because he was the every day starter to get these numbers, not platooning more than 15 games/season. Overall, the amount of talent I had at 1B didn't cost me that much considering the M's won the World Series in 2015 and 2016. Typically, you keep a team together when you're pushing for the crown, and now that we've achieved greatness, it's time to look to the future.

07-21-2013, 12:30 PM	#16
torpidbeaver Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 391	I thought I might trade Iwakuma at the break, see if I could get a decent prospect. I shopped him around, and the only single offer I got was for Adam Dunn, who's signed to the worst contract in the history of anything. I thought there'd be more (SOME?!?) interest in a 3 1/2 Star, innings-eating, only one year removed from a 3.16 ERA pitcher. So either he's vastly overrated, his bad year this year is having a perverse effect on his trade value, or the trade AI is a little off. Maybe all three of those things. Do I need to go into "Rebuilding" mode to get teams to offer me prospects? I've only had one trade offer, and it was a bad one. Never had a team offer prospects, and I've seen a flurry of trades from AI team to AI teams that include prospects. Sigh.