Blown saves!!!!

jofos · 07-21-2013, 12:37 AM

Ok so I have the Blue Jays with Casey Janssen as my closer and I have 7 blown saves out of 15 chances. I have also used Aaron Loup a couple times when facing lefties and he has blown his opportunity. What am I doing wrong? I know that there is a random chance but in a game based on statistics and with the player who the stats are based on has converted 18 of 19 this season yet has blown 6 out of 14 chances something seems wrong.

tcblcommish · 07-21-2013, 01:00 AM

You are right, there is a chance that any pitcher can blow a save. I don't play any real player stuff at all but my closer, one of the best in the league, last season had 2 blown saves all season in his 48 saves and this season has 14 saves and 5 blown.

Sadly, it just happens and when a closer or a reliever is cold, things can go bad, quick.

RchW · 07-21-2013, 01:44 AM

I'd be asking why the bats don't give you enough of a lead some of these times.

Fyrestorm3 · 07-21-2013, 01:47 AM

I had Sergio Romo blow 8 saves in 18 opportunities this most recent season.

Guess what? He's not my closer anymore.

tcblcommish · 07-21-2013, 01:55 AM

lol RchW, your sig, what thread was that from, lol. that's funny

jofos · 07-21-2013, 02:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

I'd be asking why the bats don't give you enough of a lead some of these times.

Some of the BS were 3 run leads in the 9th. My team is currently 22-20 without the blown saves I could be 30 and 12. (likely not as I may have won a game or two after a blown save but still)
Janssen is no longer my closer but Aaron Loup blew his first chance.

olivertheorem · 07-21-2013, 08:29 AM

Look at it this way, Janssen had seven bad innings out of 15. Forget that they were the ninth and blew a save. That's all that really happened. You really think that Janssen couldn't have seven bad innings in 15? I mean, what if he closes the rest of the year and never blows another save? Looks pretty normal then.

Small. Sample. Size.

RchW · 07-21-2013, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jofos

Some of the BS were 3 run leads in the 9th. My team is currently 22-20 without the blown saves I could be 30 and 12. (likely not as I may have won a game or two after a blown save but still)
Janssen is no longer my closer but Aaron Loup blew his first chance.

Keep in mind that the game doesn't know names and that certain names in real life may outperform or underperform any ratings that they can reasonably be given in-game. It's one of the reasons I play fictional.

I'm a big fan of both Loup and Janssen but on any team outside the Blue Jays they would not get a sniff at closing.

Painmantle · 07-21-2013, 09:56 AM

The problem with Both Historical and Modern Real MLB Rosters is that people go into it with a preconceived notion of what a player WILL and SHOULD be and when the dice don't roll that way and they look like something completely different...you get post like this. I find my self making decisions based on who the players is IRL instead of how they are preforming in my game. This is the main reason I am so fond of Fictional Leagues (especially in Multi-player)

If you want players to preform exactly as they do in real Life go play Fantasy Baseball,

slugga27 · 07-21-2013, 11:17 AM

Relievers are notoriously volatile. Ever wonder why very few relievers are signed to contracts longer than TWO years?

The Wolf · 07-21-2013, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slugga27

Relievers are notoriously volatile. Ever wonder why very few relievers are signed to contracts longer than TWO years?

Because they are are notoriously volatile?

Why do you think Billy Beane plays Sell The Closer over and over again?

olivertheorem · 07-21-2013, 04:10 PM

What's sad is how often he gets away with it.

jofos · 07-21-2013, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Painmantle

The problem with Both Historical and Modern Real MLB Rosters is that people go into it with a preconceived notion of what a player WILL and SHOULD be and when the dice don't roll that way and they look like something completely different...you get post like this. I find my self making decisions based on who the players is IRL instead of how they are preforming in my game. This is the main reason I am so fond of Fictional Leagues (especially in Multi-player)

If you want players to preform exactly as they do in real Life go play Fantasy Baseball,

Sorry for a post like this but, isn't this game suppose to be a simulator based on real stats? If so then players should preform similar to the way they do or did in real life. In the case of Casey Janssen he has 4 blown saves in his career 39 out of 43 not very accurate for a simulator.

Fyrestorm3 · 07-21-2013, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jofos

Sorry for a post like this but, isn't this game suppose to be a simulator based on real stats? If so then players should preform similar to the way they do or did in real life. In the case of Casey Janssen he has 4 blown saves in his career 39 out of 43 not very accurate for a simulator.

To copy/paste from one of my posts on a very similar topic:

It's been said a thousand times: OOTP does not recognize players by name. It sees each player as a bunch of ratings, nothing more. Put your preconceived notions about real-life players aside; a guy is not going to a stud in OOTP just because he's having a good season in real life.

Here's a question: In OOTP, let's say you signed a stud pitcher who was a proven vet with a career ERA of under 4, a former Rookie of the Year and Cy Young winner, and seemingly worth every penny you were paying him. If he then underperformed the first year, and completely blew up the second, posting a 6+ ERA, how would you react? Some people might call the game "broken" or "fixed" or "not realistic". What if he then missed the entire next season due to injury, and was still eating up $16M of your money? What if no team wanted him in a trade due to all this, and you were stuck with him for 3 more years? Doesn't seem fair, does it?

But then, what if he came back the next year and turned into one of the best pitchers on the team, with a sub-3 ERA? Totally not realistic, right? Well, I just described exactly what happened with John Lackey and the Red Sox in real life.

My point is this: in all honesty, OOTP does a fantastic job of mimicking real life, because of its unpredictability. Sometimes guys who were previously good stay good, and sometimes they suck. You can't base what "should" happen on real life, because even real life doesn't usually follow what "should" happen.

olivertheorem · 07-21-2013, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jofos

Sorry for a post like this but, isn't this game suppose to be a simulator based on real stats? If so then players should preform similar to the way they do or did in real life. In the case of Casey Janssen he has 4 blown saves in his career 39 out of 43 not very accurate for a simulator.

To piggyback on Fyrestorm, actually it isn't a simulator based on real stats, at least not exclusively. In a 2013 MLB game, there are no "real stats" from which to simulate, since the season hasn't happened yet. So, ratings are devised based on past performance, a player development engine is developed to make the players progress/decline realistically, and an outcomes engine is developed to get league totals close to where they are in reality.

Once you start a 2013 game, it's all fictional from there. Even if a good player in RL takes a nosedive.

(Now, a historical game can be different, depending on settings. There, a player is often, though not always, expected to produce similarly to what he did in reality, since there is a hard-and-fast record of what he did).

The Wolf · 07-21-2013, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by olivertheorem

What's sad is how often he gets away with it.

What, every time?

Painmantle · 07-21-2013, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jofos

Sorry for a post like this but, isn't this game suppose to be a simulator based on real stats? If so then players should preform similar to the way they do or did in real life. In the case of Casey Janssen he has 4 blown saves in his career 39 out of 43 not very accurate for a simulator.

jofo, what Janssen is doing in 2013 is irrelevant towards this game and his ratings, 2013 isn't finished and is not reflected in the Casey Janssen you are using. In Janssen career up to 2012 he had 31 saves and 11 Blown Saves.

He Pitched in 62 games in 2012 and while he saved 22 and only blew 3, That's only getting a save opportunity in 40% of his appearances, How many games has he pitched for you? What Month is it? How many games have you played? He had only 25 save opportunities all of the 2012 season and he has 15 for you right now, What month are you in? Are you simply using him too much, pitching him tired?

It would take a lot more information on your part to make a case for your dilemma.

up until last season (2012) he had 9 career saves and 6 blown saves. He is hardly the "Closer" you make him out to be. I suggest to you that he is Pitching up to his ability. While it would be awesome if OOTP could produce a game that would produce stats similar to what hasn't happened yet, sadly it cannot predict the future.

I will apply common analogy people use to describe under performing/over preforming players in OOTP to Casey Janssen's career...The Sample Size for Casey Janssen isn't Big enough to justify what you expect from him in this game as a Closer imho

Then again maybe your only in May and and he'll save 30 more games and only blow two for the rest of the year!

slugga27 · 07-22-2013, 06:23 PM

Let's all stop feeding the troll here...

Fyrestorm3 · 07-22-2013, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slugga27

Let's all stop feeding the troll here...

I don't see him as being a troll. He's not ranting and raging and claiming the game is broken and he's never going to play it again. He's not insulting us for not seeing it the way he does. He posted fairly calmly about a concern he had, and we responded. Not really trolling.

olivertheorem · 07-22-2013, 08:49 PM

Yeah, he just strikes me as a player new to the game who did not entirely understand how it functions. Totally understandable.

07-21-2013, 12:37 AM	#1
jofos Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 105	Blown saves!!!! Ok so I have the Blue Jays with Casey Janssen as my closer and I have 7 blown saves out of 15 chances. I have also used Aaron Loup a couple times when facing lefties and he has blown his opportunity. What am I doing wrong? I know that there is a random chance but in a game based on statistics and with the player who the stats are based on has converted 18 of 19 this season yet has blown 6 out of 14 chances something seems wrong.

07-21-2013, 01:44 AM	#3
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	I'd be asking why the bats don't give you enough of a lead some of these times. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

07-21-2013, 09:56 AM	#9
Painmantle Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Greenfield ,IN Posts: 3,053	The problem with Both Historical and Modern Real MLB Rosters is that people go into it with a preconceived notion of what a player WILL and SHOULD be and when the dice don't roll that way and they look like something completely different...you get post like this. I find my self making decisions based on who the players is IRL instead of how they are preforming in my game. This is the main reason I am so fond of Fictional Leagues (especially in Multi-player) If you want players to preform exactly as they do in real Life go play Fantasy Baseball, __________________ “As soon as I got out there I felt a strange relationship with the pitcher's mound. It was as if I'd been born out there. Pitching just felt like the most natural thing in the world. Striking out batters was easy.” -Babe Ruth “Ruth made a grave mistake when he gave up pitching. Working once a week, he might have lasted a long time and become a great star.”-Tris Speaker My Dynasties The Beantown Bambino

07-21-2013, 01:00 AM	#2
tcblcommish Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Canada Posts: 3,440	You are right, there is a chance that any pitcher can blow a save. I don't play any real player stuff at all but my closer, one of the best in the league, last season had 2 blown saves all season in his 48 saves and this season has 14 saves and 5 blown. Sadly, it just happens and when a closer or a reliever is cold, things can go bad, quick.

07-21-2013, 01:47 AM	#4
Fyrestorm3 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Tampa Bay, Massachusetts Posts: 2,928	I had Sergio Romo blow 8 saves in 18 opportunities this most recent season. Guess what? He's not my closer anymore.

07-21-2013, 01:55 AM	#5
tcblcommish Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Canada Posts: 3,440	lol RchW, your sig, what thread was that from, lol. that's funny

07-21-2013, 08:29 AM	#7
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	Look at it this way, Janssen had seven bad innings out of 15. Forget that they were the ninth and blew a save. That's all that really happened. You really think that Janssen couldn't have seven bad innings in 15? I mean, what if he closes the rest of the year and never blows another save? Looks pretty normal then. Small. Sample. Size.

07-21-2013, 11:17 AM	#10
slugga27 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,272	Relievers are notoriously volatile. Ever wonder why very few relievers are signed to contracts longer than TWO years?

07-21-2013, 04:10 PM	#12
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	What's sad is how often he gets away with it.

07-22-2013, 06:23 PM	#18
slugga27 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,272	Let's all stop feeding the troll here...

07-22-2013, 08:49 PM	#20
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	Yeah, he just strikes me as a player new to the game who did not entirely understand how it functions. Totally understandable.