Something wrong with my game? (progression)

kidanything2 · 07-17-2013, 03:25 AM

So after messing around with a bunch of different careers I decided I wanted to a super serious, super long term career with my Mets. However, after year two Matt Harvey was a 44 (out of 80), and I was pretty unhappy, so I decided to start over. I noticed Harvey slipping right away this time, and sure enough by year two he was in the 40s again. Not only that, but almost the entire team had progressed/regressed in the exact same way. After this, I restarted a bunch of times just to see, and Harvey always goes down quickly. I'm talking like a 56ovr/70pot (80 scale) to a 54/64 within a couple weeks. And most peoples paths stay close to the same as well.

I thought the progression patterns were supposed to be random every time you start a game. Do I need to reinstall or is something else going on?

megamanmatt · 07-17-2013, 12:50 PM

Well you'll probably see this at somepoint so might as well be me who says it: Your sample size is way too small.

soxfan34 · 07-17-2013, 01:06 PM

play fictional

megamanmatt · 07-17-2013, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soxfan34

play fictional

This would be my only real suggestion. Known players create expectations on how they will or won't perform. Fictional players removes this. So either try out a fictional league or sim the MLB ahead by about a decade where by that point most knowns will have retired.

I'm playing in the MLB in 2031 and I'm pretty sure I can count the real players on one hand at this point.

JohnHoward · 07-17-2013, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidanything2

I thought the progression patterns were supposed to be random every time you start a game. Do I need to reinstall or is something else going on?

I have had sims where Ranaudo and Taillon turn into superstars and sims where they tank. The problem is, none of us know how Harvey will progress yet. You think he is the next Tom Seaver, but he may be the next Buzz Capra for all we know. You will have to believe me when I say that Capra was hyped just as much as Harvey, and 1974 made it look true, but it wasn't.

If you keep running sims you will eventually get one where he is as good as you think he is but don't be too surprised if you don't get that many.

OBSL Commish · 07-17-2013, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidanything2

So after messing around with a bunch of different careers I decided I wanted to a super serious, super long term career with my Mets. However, after year two Matt Harvey was a 44 (out of 80), and I was pretty unhappy, so I decided to start over. I noticed Harvey slipping right away this time, and sure enough by year two he was in the 40s again. Not only that, but almost the entire team had progressed/regressed in the exact same way. After this, I restarted a bunch of times just to see, and Harvey always goes down quickly. I'm talking like a 56ovr/70pot (80 scale) to a 54/64 within a couple weeks. And most peoples paths stay close to the same as well.

I thought the progression patterns were supposed to be random every time you start a game. Do I need to reinstall or is something else going on?

How are Harvey's stats? Is his ERA below 4.00? Is he K/9 close to over 9? If the answers are yes, then why worry about his ratings? In a fictional league I started, I have all player evaluation options set to default and I have Zack Wheeler listed as a 25/25 out of a possible 80/80, but his ERA so far in 2016 is 2.33 and his K/9 is almost 10 (9.72). His ratings took a big dump after 2014, but he's still producing so I'll still throw him out once every five games until he gives me a reason to trade him.

soxfan34 · 07-17-2013, 02:43 PM

play stats only

kidanything2 · 07-17-2013, 05:06 PM

Thanks for the replies guys. I've played fictional leagues before, thats just not what I was trying to do here. I just want to play a close to real life Mets sim to see if I can get them back to contention and if I could win the World Series.

I understand Matt Harvey might turn out to be a bust in real life, but I've restarted probably a total of 20 something times, and it's always the same. I've seen players who are 20ovr/70s pot turn out with different career paths, some busts some stars. But it seems like established players who have a potential higher than their overall have preset paths. Harvey always goes down and Ike Davis always goes up for example. I even tried being a different team, seeing if the cpu could do any better with him. Same results.

As for his stats, they usually go down just as fast as his ratings. Sometimes his k/9 is around 9, but his era is almost always in the 4s after the first season.

I know their is an easy solution to this to just edit Matt Harvey, but that always seemed like cheating to me. I guess I'll have to excuse myself in this case.

soxfan34 · 07-17-2013, 05:23 PM

you could edit his potential... take this years stats and plug them into the editor and it'll give him a really high ceiling. but seriously playing stats only takes that "overall rating" mindset away, and it provides a much more enjoyable experience. i wonder how long til The Wolf sniffs out my stats-only comment and jumps in!!!?

soxfan34 · 07-17-2013, 05:25 PM

and another point is, with baseball particularly, there is no 'accurate' output of stats. like someone else said, who knows what harvey will turn out to be. think about kerry wood and mark prior... also, have you looked at matt kemp's stats this year?

RchW · 07-17-2013, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soxfan34

you could edit his potential... take this years stats and plug them into the editor and it'll give him a really high ceiling. but seriously playing stats only takes that "overall rating" mindset away, and it provides a much more enjoyable experience. i wonder how long til The Wolf sniffs out my stats-only comment and jumps in!!!?

It's catnip on steroids.

soxfan34 · 07-17-2013, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

It's catnip on steroids.

he'll be here soon...

RchW · 07-17-2013, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidanything2

Thanks for the replies guys. I've played fictional leagues before, thats just not what I was trying to do here. I just want to play a close to real life Mets sim to see if I can get them back to contention and if I could win the World Series.

I understand Matt Harvey might turn out to be a bust in real life, but I've restarted probably a total of 20 something times, and it's always the same. I've seen players who are 20ovr/70s pot turn out with different career paths, some busts some stars. But it seems like established players who have a potential higher than their overall have preset paths. Harvey always goes down and Ike Davis always goes up for example. I even tried being a different team, seeing if the cpu could do any better with him. Same results.

As for his stats, they usually go down just as fast as his ratings. Sometimes his k/9 is around 9, but his era is almost always in the 4s after the first season.

I know their is an easy solution to this to just edit Matt Harvey, but that always seemed like cheating to me. I guess I'll have to excuse myself in this case.

List the top 20 SP or P and the top 20 Batters at league creation then tell us who goes down or up when Harvey tanks. You might also check similar to Harvey players ie age current ratings potential ratings to see if he is unique. If he is the only one going down then there may be a bug.

Also consider cloning him at league creation and deleting the original.

kidanything2 · 07-17-2013, 05:51 PM

Again, I understand that Harvey might be a bust. Same goes for everyone, and thats the model I thought OOTP followed, so thats why I thought it would be random. But again, he always goes down. At least 20 tries, his potential drops within weeks, and is in the 50s by mid-late season, 40s by season two. Stats only? Well his stats are usually average-below average too. I understand that someone who began "dynasties" with the Maddens and other sports games that I can be a little obsessed with ratings and especially Overalls, but his stats really are pretty sad.

To the guy who said plug in his stats in the editor, thank you. Now that's a brilliant idea. That should cut down on the cheating feel for sure.

Again, thanks for the replies, these forums always help. And thanks to OOTP crew for a great game that I've been addicted to all year.

kidanything2 · 07-17-2013, 05:55 PM

I'll also try the cloning idea. Maybe roll with 2 Harveys? A team full of Harveys? Haha, jk. I'll also post some screens later just so you guys don't think I'm crazy or just whining (also to try it once again). Off to work for now though.

cblacker · 07-17-2013, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidanything2

Again, I understand that Harvey might be a bust. Same goes for everyone, and thats the model I thought OOTP followed, so thats why I thought it would be random. But again, he always goes down. At least 20 tries, his potential drops within weeks, and is in the 50s by mid-late season, 40s by season two. Stats only? Well his stats are usually average-below average too. I understand that someone who began "dynasties" with the Maddens and other sports games that I can be a little obsessed with ratings and especially Overalls, but his stats really are pretty sad.

To the guy who said plug in his stats in the editor, thank you. Now that's a brilliant idea. That should cut down on the cheating feel for sure.

Again, thanks for the replies, these forums always help. And thanks to OOTP crew for a great game that I've been addicted to all year.

What is your scouting accuracy? It may be that your scout is simply overvaluing Harvey? Have you looked in the editor to see what his actual ratings are? Remember, his ratings are from preseason projections and I'm guessing he's exceeding those projections, so his actual ratings in the game may not be as high as you think they are (or think they should be).

soxfan34 · 07-17-2013, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidanything2

I'll also try the cloning idea. Maybe roll with 2 Harveys? A team full of Harveys? Haha, jk. I'll also post some screens later just so you guys don't think I'm crazy or just whining (also to try it once again). Off to work for now though.

#harveyManCrush

olivertheorem · 07-17-2013, 10:39 PM

I didn't see this explicitly, but it is distinctly possible that Harvey's real ratings in the game (meaning, not the scouted ones) are lower than the scouted ones, and so as the scout gets a better look at him, his evaluation gets more accurate, and this is why he always seems to drop.

Would help your case if you happened to have numbers from each and every sim, but I understand that's 20/20 hindsight.

kidanything2 · 07-18-2013, 03:35 AM

I hope I uploaded the pictures right. Anyway, this was one of the slowest and slightest regressions I've ever seen, but still, this was my first attempt. Also, I always play with 100% accurate scouting. I could always do another one if anyone's interested.

Left-handed Badger · 07-18-2013, 03:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soxfan34

you could edit his potential... take this years stats and plug them into the editor and it'll give him a really high ceiling. but seriously playing stats only takes that "overall rating" mindset away, and it provides a much more enjoyable experience. i wonder how long til The Wolf sniffs out my stats-only comment and jumps in!!!?

I think using the ratings will only make you go insane. Which in a way goes to real life think how many GMs went insane after their attempted drafting of the always elusive 5-tooler

07-17-2013, 03:25 AM	#1
kidanything2 Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 10	Something wrong with my game? (progression) So after messing around with a bunch of different careers I decided I wanted to a super serious, super long term career with my Mets. However, after year two Matt Harvey was a 44 (out of 80), and I was pretty unhappy, so I decided to start over. I noticed Harvey slipping right away this time, and sure enough by year two he was in the 40s again. Not only that, but almost the entire team had progressed/regressed in the exact same way. After this, I restarted a bunch of times just to see, and Harvey always goes down quickly. I'm talking like a 56ovr/70pot (80 scale) to a 54/64 within a couple weeks. And most peoples paths stay close to the same as well. I thought the progression patterns were supposed to be random every time you start a game. Do I need to reinstall or is something else going on?

07-17-2013, 12:50 PM	#2
megamanmatt Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Lakeville, Minnesota Posts: 2,416	Well you'll probably see this at somepoint so might as well be me who says it: Your sample size is way too small. __________________ "The Minneapolis Lakers moved to Los Angeles, where there are no lakes; The Oilers moved to Tennessee where there is no oil; the Jazz moved to Salt Lake City where they don't allow music; The Oakland Raiders moved to Los Angeles and then back to Oakland, no one in Los Angeles seemed to notice." Note to self: Princess Kenny was really off-putting.

07-18-2013, 03:35 AM	#19
kidanything2 Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 10	I hope I uploaded the pictures right. Anyway, this was one of the slowest and slightest regressions I've ever seen, but still, this was my first attempt. Also, I always play with 100% accurate scouting. I could always do another one if anyone's interested. Attached Images Last edited by kidanything2; 07-18-2013 at 03:45 AM.

07-17-2013, 01:06 PM	#3
soxfan34 Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 471	play fictional

07-17-2013, 02:43 PM	#7
soxfan34 Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 471	play stats only

07-17-2013, 05:06 PM	#8
kidanything2 Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 10	Thanks for the replies guys. I've played fictional leagues before, thats just not what I was trying to do here. I just want to play a close to real life Mets sim to see if I can get them back to contention and if I could win the World Series. I understand Matt Harvey might turn out to be a bust in real life, but I've restarted probably a total of 20 something times, and it's always the same. I've seen players who are 20ovr/70s pot turn out with different career paths, some busts some stars. But it seems like established players who have a potential higher than their overall have preset paths. Harvey always goes down and Ike Davis always goes up for example. I even tried being a different team, seeing if the cpu could do any better with him. Same results. As for his stats, they usually go down just as fast as his ratings. Sometimes his k/9 is around 9, but his era is almost always in the 4s after the first season. I know their is an easy solution to this to just edit Matt Harvey, but that always seemed like cheating to me. I guess I'll have to excuse myself in this case.

07-17-2013, 05:23 PM	#9
soxfan34 Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 471	you could edit his potential... take this years stats and plug them into the editor and it'll give him a really high ceiling. but seriously playing stats only takes that "overall rating" mindset away, and it provides a much more enjoyable experience. i wonder how long til The Wolf sniffs out my stats-only comment and jumps in!!!?

07-17-2013, 05:25 PM	#10
soxfan34 Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 471	and another point is, with baseball particularly, there is no 'accurate' output of stats. like someone else said, who knows what harvey will turn out to be. think about kerry wood and mark prior... also, have you looked at matt kemp's stats this year?

07-17-2013, 05:51 PM	#14
kidanything2 Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 10	Again, I understand that Harvey might be a bust. Same goes for everyone, and thats the model I thought OOTP followed, so thats why I thought it would be random. But again, he always goes down. At least 20 tries, his potential drops within weeks, and is in the 50s by mid-late season, 40s by season two. Stats only? Well his stats are usually average-below average too. I understand that someone who began "dynasties" with the Maddens and other sports games that I can be a little obsessed with ratings and especially Overalls, but his stats really are pretty sad. To the guy who said plug in his stats in the editor, thank you. Now that's a brilliant idea. That should cut down on the cheating feel for sure. Again, thanks for the replies, these forums always help. And thanks to OOTP crew for a great game that I've been addicted to all year.

07-17-2013, 05:55 PM	#15
kidanything2 Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 10	I'll also try the cloning idea. Maybe roll with 2 Harveys? A team full of Harveys? Haha, jk. I'll also post some screens later just so you guys don't think I'm crazy or just whining (also to try it once again). Off to work for now though.

07-17-2013, 10:39 PM	#18
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	I didn't see this explicitly, but it is distinctly possible that Harvey's real ratings in the game (meaning, not the scouted ones) are lower than the scouted ones, and so as the scout gets a better look at him, his evaluation gets more accurate, and this is why he always seems to drop. Would help your case if you happened to have numbers from each and every sim, but I understand that's 20/20 hindsight.